As part of a series profiling the expected Round 1 sides for all 17 NRL clubs in 2024, it’s time to see if the Raiders can keep up their knack of winning tight games – or if they will fall away.
Canberra managed to turn a lot of close games into victories in 2024 – enough to sneak them into the finals despite having a shocking points differential.
It was a minor miracle for Ricky Stuart, but the issue with miracles is that they’re generally pretty difficult to repeat.
In 2024, he’ll have the job of a lifetime to keep Canberra competitive after several key departures, not many arrivals and a host of players who are towards the back of their careers.
There were plenty of green shoots for the Green Machine, especially with the emergence of Matt Timoko as an elite centre, but in general, there’s little feeling that 2024 will be as good as 2023, which in turn wasn’t as good as 2022, and you can see how this goes.
Who’s new?
It’s not a long list. There’s lock Morgan Smithies, who will certainly add a lot of starch to the forward pack.
He was Super League’s top tackler in 2023 and is joining a club that has made an art form out of bringing in Pommy blokes that nobody expects much from and turning them into superstars.
Canberra’s pack was already the best part of their team, though, and their defence was nowhere near the issue that their attack was, so even if Smithies turns out well, it won’t do much to move the needle in the areas that Sticky needs it to move.
Beyond him it’s fairly slim pickings. Kaeo Weekes arrives from Manly, but he couldn’t get a game at the end of last season when they were onto their third option at fullback, so it remains to be seen where he’ll fit in, if at all.
There is potential upside from a guy who has looked electric at times in his limited NRL appearances and who impressed right through the juniors, but it is potential only at this stage.
The third signing is Simi Sasagi, who is depth at best. He got zero game time at all for Newcastle in 2023 after a promising start in 2022, so they’ll be hoping he finally comes good.
Internally, there are two very bright sparks. Chevy Stewart, one of the best young players in NSW Cup last year, is almost certain to debut at some point, so watch out for him.
Ethan Strange already has one appearance – a bit of a car crash away at Melbourne, though that’ll happen sometimes – and has huge wraps. Both can play fullback, and Strange might battle it out for the 6 jumper with Weekes.
(Photo by Mark Nolan/Getty Images)
Who’s gone?
So: that 6 jumper. Jack Wighton has departed after holding a mortgage on this team for a long time, and is yet to be replaced.
One could argue until the cows came home about whether Wighton’s best position was five eighth, but he did win a Dally M there not that long ago, so clearly he’ll be missed at the Raiders.
A similarly long-serving, if less vital figure is Jarrod Croker, who has retired, while a host of depth options have left.
Matt Frawley and Harley Smith-Shields did a job and join Brad Schneider and Semi Valemei, who left midway through last year, in thinning out the back-ups.
Corey Harawira-Naera could also be in this category, and after his health problems last year, it isn’t know if or when he will return, though he is still contracted to the club.
Sebastian Kris. (Photo by Mark Nolan/Getty Images)
Key spots to unlock
Obviously, the spine is the problem. Last year’s fullback, Seb Kris, is much better in the centres and Jordan Rapana, who also spent time there, is better on a wing.
That does open up an option for Xavier Savage, who burned bright in 2022, but has never really been trusted by Ricky to take the 1 jumper long-term.
Now, Savage is in a three way fight in which he is actually the senior man, with Weekes or Stewart having much more limited experience.
Strange or Weekes will probably be the six, leaving Jamal Fogarty at halfback and one of Zac Woolford or Danny Levi to start in the 9 jumper, with, theoretically, Tom Starling coming off the bench.
It’s a lot of names, not a lot of certainty and, Fogarty aside, it doesn’t scream quality.
Corey Horsburgh is out at the start of the season due to the shoulder charge ban from last season.
Round 1 predicted team
1 Xavier Savage
2 Jordan Rapana
3 Seb Kris
4 Matt Timoko
5 Albert Hopoate
6 Ethan Strange
7 Jamal Fogarty
8 Josh Papalii
9 Zac Woolford
10 Joseph Tapine
11 Hudson Young
12 Elliott Whitehead
13 Emre Guler
Interchange
14 Tom Starling
15 Morgan Smithies
16 Pasami Saulo
17 Ata Mariota
Other squad members: Corey Horsburgh (suspended), James Schiller, Trey Mooney, Nick Cotric, Danny Levi, Kaeo Weekes, Chevy Stewart, Peter Hola, Hohepa Puru, Simi Sasagi, Corey Harawira-Naera
Development players: Michael Asomua, Jordan Martin, Noah Martin, Adrian Trevilyan
London Panther
Roar Rookie
If you take Tapine out, is it really that good a pack? The best is behind the Captain and the Big Boppa, while Corey H and Young need to find a way to not only stay on the field, but perform at a high level without red lining on emotion; neither seems to have mastered it yet. I can see them challenging for the spoon, in and around the Tigers, Dragons, Dogs and Dolphins.
Randy
Roar Rookie
spine is a big worry. Strange and Savage are full of potential but will take time to become consistent players. Stuart just doesn’t have much patience for developing spine players either…. Woolford is unfortunately in the bottom rung of hookers in the NRL. Fogarty was great for us in 2023, our best player for mine, but he can’t do it all.
Cam
Roar Rookie
How low on the ladder would they need to finish for Sticky to be sacked?
Not that Benji
Roar Rookie
This Raiders pack is too good to be getting the spoon and the backline is potent enough if they can be set up with good opportunities. The problem is no matter how well the eventual spine forms there isn't enough experience there to really win enough games. They should finish in the 9-13 range.
Maxtruck
Roar Rookie
Every chance they could have David Fafita round 11 if he does not take up his option. The Titans might even open the door if he does not play to his pay packet. If Beau Fermor, on half of Fafita's money and Hass Junior & Fa'asuamaleaui junior on even less, perform well early season then Fafita's $$ and contract games could have Des pondering what else he could do with a million a season cap space.
high horse
Roar Rookie
as a dragons fan i am always looking for other teams to challenge for the spoon. this spine is a great chance of taking the Raiders to the bottom. then again the tigers bought in Aiden Sezer
BigGordon
Roar Rookie
"their defence was nowhere near the issue that their attack was". You sure about that Mike? The Raiders gave up around 26 points a game on average this year, which is about the same as the bottom teams in the comp. Fair enough, their attack was not great either, but I reckon they've got some serious issues on both sides of the ball. I think they made the finals this year because of other teams failings and a supportive draw. I can't see the Eels, Roosters or Souths having two off seasons in a row, so unless Stuart can conjure some magic, the only thing Raiders fans might have to look forward to is Ricky's rants - sadly. They won't come last, but won't challenge for a finals spot either.
Dumbo
Roar Rookie
Now then Mike, how about a New Year’s resolution? Eschew the use of “wrap” (other than when followed by the words “in cotton wool“) and stick to RAP
Red Rob
Roar Rookie
Yep definitely not a spoon-looking list.
Geoff from Bruce Stadium
Roar Rookie
I honestly don't know how they will go. They have too good a pack to get the wooden spoon I suspect. I'm not bullish but the injection of youth in the spine is as you say exciting and scary. I reckon they will be more exciting to watch than they were this season when they played a fairly grinding conservative style of play. I hope so anyway. But a more attacking game may expose them more in defence. Going to be interesting to see how it plays out.
Geoff from Bruce Stadium
Roar Rookie
Can't see Jordan staring there RR - he is a decent back up mind you. Funny how he said at the start of 2023 that he didn't want to play at FB when Savage had his jaw broken in a trial match but he ended being the best option there. He has some of that Joey Manu type ball playing ability and offered a lot more in attack than Seb Kris.
Dutski
Roar Guru
It must be a real mix of excitement and anxiety Geoff. Sticky might unearth a gem at 6. Fogarty might find another gear and add more of a running dimension to his game. Are you bullish about their prospects? The spoon doesn’t seem likely to me - the Tigers and Saints are still favourites for that. I’m keen to see how the pack goes. Does Tapine stay the pack leader? Is Papalii a spent force? Will Young and Big Red find the balance between aggression and madness? Plenty to learn in 24, even if they aren’t challenging for the 8
Geoff from Bruce Stadium
Roar Rookie
I think Kris may have been allowed to serve some of his suspension by missing out on playing for NZ in the end of season games. Might even play Round 1. Cory will definitely miss a few and will probably be replaced by Smithies.
Geoff from Bruce Stadium
Roar Rookie
It will be fascinating to see who ends up who playing at 6 and 1 for the Raiders in 2024. Savage and Stewart should be fighting for the full back position – and both are exciting prospects – but both are very inexperienced. Hopefully Ricky keeps Seb Kris in the centres. He should form a formidable centre pairing with Timoko. And Rapana and Cotric on the wings forms a fairly decent backline. Its the 5/8 position that will determine whether they have a good year or not. And there is no certainty as to who out of Weekes and Strange will fill the position. Either one may end up bringing more than what Jack was providing in 2023. But I don’t think there is any question that the Raiders will miss Wighton’s defence – and his threat near the try line with ball in hand. Interesting to see that Ricky has plumped for youth given his unwillingness to give blokes like Savage much of an opportunity in 2023. Hard to predict how they will go in 2024 with any certainty. The bookies certainly don’t like their chances.
Red Rob
Roar Rookie
I don’t watch a lot of Cnb games, and my memory might be faulty, but I recall Rapana looking decent at FB in one or two games this year.
Dionysus
Roar Rookie
Smithies is a good player and will contribute plenty to this Canberra team. It won't be enough though. I cannot see Canberra making the eight with this team. If that occurs, it will say an awful lot about Ricky Stewart's coaching abilities. As a coach who has been incumbent in a team for so long, you have had plenty of time to stamp your own style on the team, establish your own values and recruit the players that you want. Failure to make the eight after such a long tenure, is a massive negative on any coaching career. Finishing with the wooden spoon should be an automatic termination of contract.
souvalis
Roar Rookie
Kris and Corey H. wont make the Round 1 team both got heavy suspensions at the end of last year.