Super Rugby tipping week five: Canes' incredible show of depth, brave soul backs Tahs for Fiji upset

There’s a three-way tie at the top of our tipping table heading into week five, and with a cagey approach by the panel only one them can take a solo lead after this weekend.

Christy was pegged back by Nick and Tony last week – his decision to back the Rebels over the Reds falling flat. Hamish produced back-to-back one point rounds. This week he has the same tips as Nick and Christy and shares five with Tony – so there’s a big chance of some huge upsets as the Bidwell jinx strikes again.

Christy Doran

Hurricanes, Brumbies, Drua, Chiefs, Blues, Reds

Cam Roigard might be sitting out of the Hurricanes’ home clash against the Rebels, but the men from Wellington have brought back some quality and will be far too strong.

Not only is captain Brad Shields back on deck to make his return in Super Rugby, TJ Perenara makes his first start of the season in the No.9 jersey and Jordie Barrett is back at inside centre. Hurricanes by 18.

The Brumbies lost three regular starters, but they’ll still have too much quality for Moana Pasifika to handle. The Brumbies’ bench is stacked. I like the player management from Stephen Larkham too, with his wider squad getting some more minutes starting. Big tick.

The Waratahs have a mountain to climb against the Drua. After dropping winnable matches against the Highlanders and Blues, it’s a huge test for Darren Coleman’s side. They have the players to win, but playing the Drua at home has brought many sides down. That said, I’m backing the Drua by a whisker.

Harry Wilson of the Waratahs celebrates a try during the round two Super Rugby Pacific match between Crusaders and NSW Waratahs at AAMI Park, on March 02, 2024, in Melbourne, Australia. (Photo by Darrian Traynor/Getty Images)

The Chiefs have some serious class in their side and they should be too dynamic for the Highlanders. It’s good to see Emoni Nawara back on the field too.

The Blues were poor during their 12-10 win over the Tahs, but they’ll pick it up a notch against the Crusaders who could easily slip to 0-5. George Bell needs to fix his lineout throw to give the Crusaders a chance. 

The Reds can’t afford to slip up against the Force. It’s a game they should win, but we’ve said that about Australian outfits over the years. Reds by 13.

Nick Wasiliev

Hurricanes, Brumbies, Drua, Chiefs, Blues, Reds

Well, we’re five rounds in and it’s been an unpredictable, wild ride! However, this week sees us cross into the long haul of a season, with teams focusing on either building on momentum or finding it.

It’s good that in the former camp, there are two Aussie sides firmly locked in. The Rebels right now are too unpredictable. One weekend they’ll pull off a massive come-from-behind win, the next they crash and burn. While they are getting better at finishing games and they have a great squad, their inconsistency won’t cut it against an undefeated Canes in New Plymouth. 

They may have crashed against the Chiefs and barely scraped home against the Force, but the Brumbies look to be recovering and building, with a youthful, talented starting side and experience off the bench. Moana will offer a challenge – they are a well-drilled team. It won’t be a 60+ point win like last year, but the hosts should get home.

I reckon the Drua vs Tahs clash is the match of the round. Fiji are a team possessed at home and haven’t lost in Lautoka since Round 10, 2023. However, despite the Tahs record, their last three weekends against Kiwi sides saw them finish with a +9 aggregate – they have been in every game until the death.

I predict a thriller, with the hosts just scraping home.

While the Highlanders are improving substantially this year, the Chiefs at home should be too strong – even despite a more inexperienced pack being named. They should get home with a try or two.

The Blues welcome back Patrick Tuipulotu, and while the Waratahs asked a lot of questions last week, they should have enough momentum to get home in Auckland. Plus, the current Crusaders backline has proven especially flimsy under pressure. Stephen Perofeta should have a field day.

Carlo Tizzano of the Force looks on during the round four Super Rugby Pacific match between Western Force and Moana Pasifika at HBF Park, on March 15, 2024, in Perth, Australia. (Photo by Will Russell/Getty Images)

I’m in a bad place with the Force right now, last week sucked. Yes, their casualty ward is a disaster, but if Cron has to apologise for performances, we’ve got a problem. Their discipline was disgraceful, and that performance was inexcusable given the talent they have. Sam Spink is a welcome return but the Reds will put them to the sword if they deliver a performance like last week again. Force fans, go for the Super Rugby Women’s fixture, which will be a thriller!

Hamish Bidwell

Hurricanes, Brumbies, Drua, Chiefs, Blues, Reds

Good on the Hurricanes for beating the Crusaders last week. It’s picking up wins like this one that’s often the niggly part for aspiring champions.

The second game on Friday night is interesting. I’ll go Brumbies for no other reason than it’s in Canberra.

It’s a similar theory for the Drua vs Tahs. The Lautoka factor is the decisive one here.

The Chiefs will beat the Highlanders by 20. The same as I said about the Hurricanes: You have to win these ones if you fancy yourself as elite.

I want the Crusaders to beat the Blues. But I don’t think they can.

A mate of mine was telling me what a good job Brad Thorn’s doing with Queensland this year. I had to break the news that Brad was gone and it’s Les Kiss doing that good job, and he’ll keep doing it on Saturday.

Tony Harper

Hurricanes, Brumbies, Waratahs, Chiefs, Blues, Reds

Eagle-eared (do eagles have good hearing?) listeners to the Roar rapid fire podcast (embedded above) will note I tipped the Drua. But afer few hours of reflection – and seeing an opportunity for a break from the peloton with the other three all with the same tips – I’ve switched to the Tahs in Laukota.

Yes, their match against the Blues was painfully rubbish last weekend, but they’ve been in the contests as Nick points out. DC needs it, and I’m looking for a big one from Jorgo.

The rest are as the bookies suggest, although the Blues vs Crusaders is a trap game for the Aucklanders.

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