It’s that time of year when many frustrated footy fans look at the standings in their tipping comp and think why bother.
You’ve already fallen off the pace because those sure things you were so certain of winning proved not to be the case.
Those bloody Tigers have cost you by winning, then you start backing them and they go down to the Dolphins. And the Dragons? A nightmare to predict – it was so much easier the past few years when they were consistently incompetent.
But don’t despair. There are ways to turn the tipping tide, make up ground on the leaders and you never know your luck, you could make a Lazarus-like rise from the ashes, just as Glenn did with the Storm in the 1999 Grand Final.
Here are the rock solid*, 100% guaranteed** and scientifically tested*** methods that can take you all the way to footy tipping competition glory.
* – solidity may vary
** – not a guarantee
*** – at the Ponds Institute.
Be ruthless: Don’t tip who you want to win but who you think will win. If you ever express the phrase “I can’t back against my team” or you can’t cheer for a team you despite to win, then you are tipping with one hand behind your back.
There is no room for sentiment in footy tipping.
Late Mail counts: Keep an eye on team changes. For the vast majority of players it doesn’t move the needle too much either way if they’re in or out unless a team has half a dozen or so of your honest first-graders out.
Nathan Cleary hoists a high bomb. (Photo by Brendon Thorne/Getty Images)
But when a big name is sidelined, those key players make a world of difference. Any time the Trbojevic of the Tom variety is not in maroon, Manly are reduced to mere mortals but they can beat anyone if he is firing from the back.
Mitchell Moses’ impact at Parramatta is similar – they won two out of three to start the year but have gone down to the Tigers and Raiders since he broke his foot.
The Panthers with Nathan Cleary in the side over the past four years when they have made the Grand Final have won 72 and lost just 11 for a phenomenal 87% success rate.
When he’s been out they’re still pretty damn good but have won just 19 of 27 for a 70% clip.
Follow the money – it’s the bookmakers’ job to know who’ll win: From the first 40 matches of 2024, the bookmakers’ favourites have won 24 times, which doesn’t sound too flash but it was heavily skewed by a rare occurrence of six outsiders getting up in Round 1.
Home ground proving an advantage: The visitors are struggling this year with only nine wins coming for the road team from 38 matches aside from the first two in Las Vegas on neutral turf.
Seven of the nine wins on the road have been won by a team rated the underdog by the bookmakers.
Teams struggle after short turnarounds: The Tigers looked flat against the Dolphins at Suncorp Stadium last Saturday night, backing up for one of their three five-day turnarounds this year.
Although the Knights were coming off a five-day gap and a flight back from New Zealand last Friday when they hosted the Dragons and ran out comfortable winners but perhaps that had more to do with the opposition’s poor play than their travel fatigue.
Manly and Canterbury are the only two teams who don’t have the dreaded five-day turnaround this year – they must have slipped the drawmakers a fiver.
History matters: It’s too late for this year but never tip the Storm to lose in Round 1. Craig Bellamy’s pre-season build-ups are undefeated.
(Photo by Matt King/Getty Images)
The Roosters have won 12 of their past 14 matches against the Knights heading into this Thursday’s game at McDonald Jones Stadium, a venue where the home side has lost just once in their nine most recent outings. So take your pick which version of history suits your prediction for this one.
There’s no point tipping the Titans in 2024: One thing that can be gleaned from the first five rounds is that Gold Coast are well off the pace. The serious knee injury to Tino Fa’asuamaleaui means they have lost the player who made them competitive and Des Hasler could be on a hiding to nothing trying to restore his coaching reputation at the NRL’s graveyard.
Back streaks to continue: If a team is winning, or losing, three matches in a row, the likelihood is their formline will hold. The old “that just means they’re one step closer to a win/loss” theory is one to avoid.
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Trust nobody: Last and certainly not least, whether it’s a workplace comp or a bit of “friendly fun” among family and friends, they’re all your mortal enemies. They will lead you astray by lulling you into a false sense of security with comments like “I only tip the teams based on the colours of their uniform” or “I don’t treat it too seriously”.
Lies. All lies. They’re all out to get you. In tipping, like all mind games, only the toughest survive.
Gamechanger
Roar Rookie
A team who has won three in a row is unlikely ( in probability) to win a fourth on the trot, except if they play the titans. I’m not in a competition, but when I was this was quite regularly successful.
Gamechanger
Roar Rookie
It’s a time for some unique algorithms to emerge!
Big Mig
Roar Rookie
I tipped all the home teams last week and got 7 out of 8 correct. The one I got wrong was the Rabbitohs whom I tipped to win and lost :crying:
Geoff from Bruce Stadium
Roar Rookie
I got close Bernie - I think I came 3rd in the end. DPS really should have walked away with it. He was out in front for a long time. Not doing so well this year. Was dumb to pick the Titans once and thought the Bunnies might get up another time. If I can make top 20 I'm happy .
Bernie
Roar Rookie
a couple of seasons back we must have been 2nd if not 1st in one of the Junior Bernie's work tipping comps, only for the tip-master to admit at the end rather sheepishly that his Xcel sheet he was using to tally, "crashed" in a non-retrievable way about 8 rounds from the end & the comp was void. he didnt tell anyone, just kept letting us put our tips in for nothing.
Bernie
Roar Rookie
i always try and tip one upset a round, easier said than done of course. i'm normally one match down straight away due to my inexcusable pig-headed picking of the Dragons every week. G, didnt you just miss out on top spot in the Roars tipping last comp, after DP Sch got the wobblies in the home stretch?
Geoff from Bruce Stadium
Roar Rookie
Good rules in general Paul. But unfortunately they don't always hold true e.g. the Roosters were supposed to beat the Panthers a couple of weeks ago who were without Cleary and JWH - but they never looked like winning. Your first rule is one of the best - pick who you think is going to win not who you want to win. This gets hard when you are invested in your own team and they are in a game that they have a rough chance of winning. You could either get one up on everyone else in the tipping comp or go behind even further if you take a punt on your own team. I like the home team rule when you are uncertain about a game I.e. a 50/50 job - particularly if they took a flogging last week - so lookout for the Eels and Souths rebounding this week. But do you take a risk with a team like Souths who have had such a miserable run? When does that bad run end? You could burn a few tips anticipating it. And teams definitely get on a streak one way or another e.g. the Knights run home last year when they won 8 or 10 in a row. This gets useful if you stick with a team in good form and people think their streak will end or they don't rate the team on a roll. And on the flipside Souths and the Titans current bad runs. I guess we all assume this poor form will continue. And whatever happened to good old gut feel? Where does that fit in?
Stewy76
Roar Rookie
We have a girl in the office that doesn't follow the footy. Her strategy is: - she backs the Dolphins because that is 'her team' - in all other games she backs the team that would win if they had a fight (eg. a tiger would always beat a bunny) She is absolutely smashing it out of the park. Meanwhile, a few old footy heads who read every nrl article and follow every blog on the internet can't win a trick :laughing:
dogs
Roar Rookie
Once in a tipping comp I came 3rd (out of 20something) tipping the entire season before a ball was kicked. Think it was the year we lost the GF to the storm (and Billy Slater almost lost an ear), so tipping those two every week had definitely helped.
Albo
Roar Rookie
Lack of accurate information is the big problem for tipsters. Teams announced on Tuesday with players selected who are suddenly changed out an hour before kick off, really bug me. Not only as a tipster, but as a Supercoach player . You need to keep an eye on who the final two reserves might be the day before their match, as that might be clue if a change is coming before kick off ?
BigGordon
Roar Rookie
All we have to do is get the players and Clubs to follow Paul's advice and this could be a winning year in the footy tips.
Adsa
Roar Rookie
Thanks Paul, and so begins my long journey to hoist myself from tide last in the comp to Victory.
Lastword
Roar Rookie
Thanks for the advice. I am willing to adopt any system wherein I can overtake people who have no idea. Those who are successful yet don't follow the game, toss a coin, or don't possess my expertise should be banned from tipping comps.