Friday night’s clash between Parramatta and the Dolphins is likely to be a hot one – and not just because the game is being held in the Northern Territory.
It sees Brad Arthur meet Wayne Bennett, the man who many are tipping to replace him, at a time when his side are somewhat bumbling along.
Bumbling is fine – the Eels are 3-3 – but not when you’re over a decade into your role at a club that has invested significantly in top line talent to help break a multi-decade Premiership drought.
Throw in that the most obvious replacement, a guy who only really deals in Premierships in the here and now, is sat down the corridor coaching the opposition, and Arthur might need a comically large quantity of water bottles to cool him down again.
His side enter the match on the back of a middling start but with a make-or-break run ahead of them, not to mention a rock hard finish that might necessitate points on the board early.
Parra won their first three visits to the Top End, defeating the Raiders, Titans and Panthers, which is only worth mentioning to point out that the people who scheduled NRL matches once thought that a Battle of the West was of so little value that they could move it 4,000km away from Western Sydney just because.
The Eels lost handily to Brisbane in Darwin last year and heftily to the Cowboys before, and on both occasions, playing a side coming out of a Queensland summer in what is invariably the hottest, stickiest game of the year proved a major misstep.
This time around it’s the Dolphins, who do have the Sunshine State advantage, but crucially are also missing their three best players in Hamiso Tabuai-Fidow, Herbie Farnworth and Tom Flegler.
For the Eels, it has to be treated as a must-win, not least because of where it sits in their season.
Parra are a side that confounds expectations, with coach Arthur largely unable to form a strong pack into a coherent points scoring machine, especially since halfback Mitchell Moses went down injured in Round 3’s win over Manly.
The flow on effect of that is massive inconsistency, and in the most annoying of fashions for a coach, because his side are consistently inconsistent.
3-3 through six rounds is firmly in the not great, not terrible bracket.
All three wins have come at home, against Canterbury, Manly and last week against the Cowboys, while his side have lost away at Penrith (no shame there), at home to the Wests Tigers (some shame) and away at Canberra (less shame).
Having a record you can call ‘not great, not terrible’ is problematic for Parramatta, and for two reasons.
Firstly, their draw would suggest that it should be at least one win better – namely the Tigers at home – and that it might get worse in the coming six weeks, with a trip to Manly next up, the visit of the Broncos the week after that, a Magic Round clash with Melbourne then Souths in Indigenous Round and Cronulla at home.
Parramatta celebrate s try. (Photo by Brendon Thorne/Getty Images)
That draw looks fairly stiff on paper, and gets worse with context.
Though Parra have already beaten Manly, they were a little fortunate to do so on the run of play even with Moses on deck, and have lost four of their last five trips to the Northern Beaches.
The Broncos have won three of their last four against the Eels and are, obviously, one of the best sides in the comp, while the Storm have won five of eight against Parra and have a formidable record at Suncorp.
Souths could be anything by the time they face Parra – and, prior to last year’s defeat, were on a six game winning streak – while Cronulla looked nailed on for the finals at least, and have beaten the Eels on both meetings in Craig Fitzgibbon’s reign.
There’s only so much you can read into historical records, but it’s worth discussion because the upcoming fixtures allow Arthur to change the narrative on his team and, indeed, his future.
All of those previous meetings took place under his tenure and, with a contract renewal under discussion, they’re all poor records that he could well do with fixing if he is to convince the higher-ups at the club that he is worth persevering with.
Parramatta were a touch unfortunate to finish 2023 with a 50% record – they were hit a lot harder than most in Origin and lost one of their biggest stars, Dylan Brown, to an off-field incident – but another even season likely won’t be enough to keep Arthur in a job.
After a decade in post and with other big fish about – none more so than Wayne Bennett – there’s a decent chance that CEO Jim Sarantinos and others will see a new voice at the top as a better way of getting results from an undeniably talented, not to mention expensively assembled, squad.
J’maine Hopgood looks to pass in Ipswich. (Photo by Bradley Kanaris/Getty Images)
That’s all bubbling in the background, but in the front lies a tactical issue that hasn’t gone away.
Parra’s reliance on impactful forwards is well known, but is only as good as their ability to convert that dominance into points.
They are second top for Tackles inside 20m, but only middling for actual tries, showing how poorly they have converted.
Manly, for example, are third but score a try from every 8.3 good ball tackles compared to 10.9 for Parra. The Cowboys are the most efficient on 5.4, ahead of the Roosters on 5.7.
Parramatta have improved their ability to stop opponents through the middle, hence playing the game in a more advantageous part of the field, but they are also conceding the most line breaks per game and the joint third most tries, level with the Dragons and with only the lowly Titans and Rabbitohs worse.
What those numbers tell you is that Arthur’s tactics are starting to look a little behind the times.
In a league where wide play is more and more common, his team have doubled down on the middle. It’s starting to look like they’re fighting the last war.
The tactics makes sense with the roster that they have built, with huge chunks of salary cap in the forwards that can’t be moved and the addition of Zac Lomax does at least go some way to fixing the problem for next year.
In the here and now, however, it’s a clear weakness that opponents have exploited.
Canberra shredded their edges and got the win, and both the Sea Eagles and Cowboys did too in games that they lost.
Payne Haas. (Photo by Bradley Kanaris/Getty Images)
With the Broncos and Sharks on the horizon, plus Manly again, that edge defence is going to be tested to the max.
It likely won’t happen this weekend in Darwin, as the Dolphins simply aren’t that type of team, but it’s worth bearing in mind going forward.
That fixture pile-up could be the making or breaking of Arthur with this board. They need to stick or twist, and while 3-3 is serviceable for now, 6-6 after 12 rounds would see the questions start up all over again.
For Parra to make the eight, they need to build up points now, too, because things get even tougher down the line.
Their immediate post-Origin period is horrific, with a run of Melbourne, the Warriors, Penrith, the Roosters and the Broncos on the way home, all of whom will have something to play for.
That will be when the whips really get cracking, but it’s this run in the next six games that will tell us if the Eels are serious about being around at that time.
If they were to go worse than 50/50 in this coming period, it might be enough to make the board lose faith in Arthur and move early. If they go better, however, it might get him an extension.
That all starts on Friday night in the Northern Territory.
Brett Allen
Roar Rookie
Players are pros, they know the business.
Brett Allen
Roar Rookie
The Eels don’t get to choose who they play in Darwin.
Brett Allen
Roar Rookie
Garbage, RCG & Junior are top shelf.
Brett Allen
Roar Rookie
What are you talking about, we absolutely built to that level. After the 2018 spoon, in 2019 we finished 5th and put 58 on the Broncos in the first week of the finals , 2020 we finished 3rd but went out in straight sets, 21 we finished 6th and were robbed by the refs & Mitch Kenny in week 2, 22 we finished 4th and went to the GF. We just couldn’t get over the hump. We were also the only team in the top 8 every week from 2019-2022
Good Grief
Roar Rookie
Hang on, I didn’t sign Hodgson :) I assume Parra did medical assessment of Hodgson and were satisfied. They took a calculated risk and it didn’t work out, as you know Parra 2023 season was riddled with injuries and off field indiscretions. But … they clearly had a plan for having a crack in 2023 that made sense at the time. With the benefit of hindsight it turned out terrible. But I still don’t see why BA is the perennial scapegoat? Every year the media donkeys bray for his scalp. How much baggage should BA carry for Hodgson’s neckinjury, Lane’s horrible run of injuries, RCGs horribly novel injury and Dylan Brown’s rank stupidity (sorry, “youthful exuberance”) in 2023? Just the same, I thought Mahoney was a good pick up for Canterbury and great value.
Glory Bound
Roar Rookie
The Rabbitohs 2024 season continues to be in free fall. Now, prop Tavita Tatola has a broken foot and will be out for the next 3 months! He won't return until at lease round 18!! Currently, Alex Johnston (rnd 10), Latrell Mitchell (rnd 10), Jai Arrow (TBC), Tavita Tatola (rnd 18), Campbell Graham (rnd 20), Tyrone Munro (TBC) Lachlan Ilias (TBC) and Richie Kennar (TBC) are all unavailable.
Maxtruck
Roar Rookie
Sivo being pushed out to fit Lomax under cap, not real good moral booster for the team. Especially when Sivo had a French Rugby offer on the table but stayed loyal to the Eels.
Khun Phil
Roar Rookie
It is all very well to say they have a horror run of matches,but if they want to be competitive in this comp then they have to just suck it up.As they say,to be the best you have to beat the best! I am a dyed in the wool Eels fan too and just hope Brad can get the best out of them without Mitch.
Cam
Roar Rookie
Yep, it must drive the coaches crazy when they are forced by front office to give up home advantage. I love a good stat, Eels were 6 from 7 in Darwin, but have lost their last 2 matches at the venue. Eels have won only one of their last six NRL matches away from CommBank and have conceded 41.8 points per game across their last four defeats away from home. Which kinds of screams for the Eels, "don't give up a home game!!"
Bill
Roar Rookie
Yeah makes sense, thanks Cam. Same reason Manly like to play Broncos at Suncorp for our home game in Magic Round.... whats a top 8 position matter when your club can boost its coffers :silly:
Cam
Roar Rookie
Dolphins will be tough to beat in Darwin, I reckon the travel and conditions probably favour the Phins. And to be fair, the Eels aren't travelling the best at the moment. Their last three matches are a tight win over the Cows at Commbank, an absolute hammering by the Raiders and a loss to the Tigers at home. Yes the Dolphins have a injury list as long as your arm, but they are still rolling with a decent forward pack, good halves and a clever hooker.
Cam
Roar Rookie
Purely a monetary decision. When the Eels play local Sydney derbies at Commbank, they get 22,000-30,000 through the gate. When they play teams from outside Sydney, the numbers halve. Last year the Cows attracted just 14,000, Nights 15,000, Titans just 12,000. They sell a match to the NT/Darwin Tourism and take a match up there which would tank at Commbank.
Andrew01
Roar Rookie
He's in the cross hairs because someone has to be and Parra with a big supporter base will get a media type more clicks if they right about the club. The people who should be in the cross hairs are Mark O'Neil and Jim Sarantinos. I bet most Eels fans and readers on this site, wouldn't have been able to name who the Eels CEO is, and Sarantinos has been in the job for about 5 years! While BA is on the recruitment committee, ultimately it is MON's job, and he has been a disaster. It sounds like you think the Hodgson signing was a good one? The 31 year old had basically missed 2 of the last 3 seasons before joining the Eels, and the season he did play was pretty ordinary. It was a horrible signing with a strong chance of failing with Hodgson either not being up to it, or getting injured.... and what a surprise, he lasted 12 starts - was poor in all of them, and ultimately couldn't go on because his body failed him. The combination of losing Mahoney and signing Hodgson when your squad was built to win now, was close to a fireable offence. I'm sure losing Mahoney wasn't what BA wanted and signing a washed up, injury prone player - I would like to think BA learnt his lesson early on with Watmough on that front. He was let down by MON and his mismanagement and Sarantinos, being too busy doing nothing..
Albo
Roar Rookie
They don't have the cattle right now. I just think there are too many fringe or overrated first graders in that Parra team. And I include their much touted front row. I would take Gutho, Moses, Brown, Hopgood & Cartwright only, and send the rest down to NSW Cup. They will likely beat the Dolphins in Darwin tonight with their extensive injury list, but I can't see the Eels as finalists in 2024 with or without BA ?
Bill
Roar Rookie
Parra not doing BA or themselves any favours by consistently taking QLD teams to play up here. Even for those acclimatised you'll build up a sweat walking to the mailbox. Next year consider Canberra or Melbourne to give yourselves a fighting chance
Train Without A Station
Roar Guru
I reckon for the Eels' performances over a decade under him, Arthur has been given a free pass. They made a GF but it seemed to be an aberration that couldn't be repeated, not something they built towards.
Good Grief
Roar Rookie
I don’t understand why BA is always in the media crosshairs. The loss to Tigers sucked, but where’s the recruitment failure? They had Josh Hodgson contracted for 23/24 and have just snapped up the only available strike centre. Here’s my 2024 pre-season notes on Parra: Parra and Souths (then Dolphins) have arguably toughest draw for 2024. Both play 2023 top 4 twice, parra has fewest games against bottom 3 (but easiest part of their season is first third. Unless they have a barnstorming season they need to have at least 6 wins from first 8 or they risk missing the top eight. After that they only have 4 games against the weaker teams for the rest of the season. Manly and Parra play each other twice by Round 8, results from these two games may well determine which of these two teams makes the finals. 2023 - Hodgson gone, Lane badly missed, horrible injury toll and off field stupidity (Dylan Brown…) Parra should play finals IF they can avoid key position injuries. Who’s their backup half? Maybe a quality centre and a Josh Hodgson (quality 9) away from a complete 17 that is competing for top four.
Andrew01
Roar Rookie
I will be interested to see what Eels team take the field tonight. As currently constituted (with the squad cut to 19), they are not carrying a back up 9 on the bench. Lussick - who is fundamentally a back up to begin with - is either going to play 80 minutes in the heat/humidity, or there is going to be some sort of weird shuffle when Blaze Talagi comes on. His other bench players are Luca Moretti - who always looks exhausted after he has been on the field for 4 minutes, Ofahengaue who has limited endurance, and Matterson - who interestingly played few minutes last week - possibly to keep him saved up for a big role this week. If it were me, I would have Talagi in for Harper - forget talent, or potential - just purely for speed and fitness - as that is where the Dolphins have talent - the speed on the flanks - and Harper appears to be among the slowest and most unfit backline players in the NRL (next to Sivo). And i would bring Hands in onto the bench to cover Lussick and at the end of the day, he could muscle up and play a middle role for a short period if need be. I think if the Dolphins forwards hold their own, and they are pretty decent in the front row - maybe a bit lean on the edge, they can run around Parra and i give them a massive chance tonight.
BigGordon
Roar Rookie
I'd be very disappointed if Parra based any decision about the coach's future on one game in Darwin in April. For all this talk about buying a lot of quality players, in recent times, they've rarely had their best team on the paddock and often for reasons completely outside Brad Arthur's control. The issue Parra will need to deal with is the recovery after the game in Darwin. Playing high intensity sport in the wet season, even at the end of it, takes a lot out of players. Throw in a 4-hour flight home and the players health will need to be even more carefully managed than normal. PS when Wayne comes back to Sydney, is he going to split his time equally between the Bunnies, Eels and another side that needs a new coach?
The Sporacle
Roar Rookie
In the last ten years BA has made one GF and Bennett has made two......