The NRL stat that isn't one, but should be: Working out which forwards really pull their weight

By Stuart Thomas / Expert

Despite the ever evolving nature of the role of forwards in the game of rugby league, their job remains somewhat fundamental.

Whether thundering through the middle or playing a little wider on an edge, the numbers eight through 13 are charged with carting the ball forward, attempting to dent, tire and break defensive lines, as well busying themselves in defense and nullifying opposition players keen to do the same.

Of course, there are stats for both of these endeavours; average tackles and metres gained.

It struck me that combining the two might provide an insight into exactly who are the hardest working big men in the NRL, and perhaps expose a few others who might not exactly be pulling their weight on a week to week basis.

After three hours of combing the stats and cross refencing the data from the top 50 on the metres gained metric and the most prolific tacklers in the game, the results are interesting and mostly supportive of the forwards generally respected and admired in the game.

To arrive at the figures, I excluded backs, halves and hookers, focusing purely on the engine room. The results outlined below are set out in the following format, (26.1, 112m), where the player in question is averaging 26.1 tackles per game and 112 running metres, for a total TM (tackle + metres) stat of 138.1.

Top of the pops after six rounds of the NRL is Brisbane’s Patrick Carrigan (38.5, 191m). His total score of 229.5 is well clear of the next best and highlights his value to Kevin Walters’ team and Queensland.

Patrick Carrigan will once again be an Origin star in 2024. (Photo by Mark Kolbe/Getty Images)

A man that might surprise a few takes second place on 207. Canberra’s Joseph Tapine averages a little over 30 tackles per game and just over 176 metres per match in what has been a stellar start to his season in terms of work rate.

Addin Fonua-Blake is third on a TM of 203, with run metres exceeding 177 per match for the Warriors. Team mate Tohu Harris sits fourth on 198 (41.0, 157.8) and Victory Radley is fifth (36.8, 159m) with his indefatigable defence work ranking him the 12th busiest forward in the league when it comes to tackling.

Coming in sixth is David Fifita (28.0, 166.5m), whilst Isaah Yeo is tied seventh with Payne Haas on a TM of 191. It is worth noting that both Fifita (three games) and Haas (two games) have only small sample sizes for the season and few would be surprised by yet another stat that simply confirms Yeo’s greatness in the modern game.

Interestingly, a number of the men excelling in defensive workloads achieve only a moderate TM score, based on limited running metre production.

Nat Butcher (41.2), Kurt Capewell (39.6) and Jacob Preston (38.0) work tirelessly without the ball yet with average running metres of only 42, 68 and 77 respectively, they fall well short of the class of the field when it comes to a collective figure.

Jacob Preston is one of the Bulldogs’ best on a week to week basis. (Photo by Cameron Spencer/Getty Images)

And that is the potential validity of such a statistic. Whilst merit will always be given to those who cart the ball effectively and the men who hit, stick and scramble in defence, the ability to do both consistently and in significant numbers might be the best assessment of modern day forwards.

Another Warrior slots into ninth on the list. Mitchell Barnett is having an impressive season thus far and with a total TM figure of 183, is emerging as one of the most valuable toiling forwards in the game.

Rounding out the top ten is Manly’s Haumole Olakau’atu (25.6, 154.8m), a player continuing to grow in NRL stature and with consistent figures in this range, one destined to be feared further as he enters the prime of his career.

There are some mighty impressive names that follow outside the top ten. Based on the total TM metric, Taniela Paseka (171.3), Stefano Utoikamanu (163), Jordan McLean (162), Keaon Koloamatangi (161.6), Jacob Saifiti (156.1), Trent Loiero (156) and Josh Curran (156) all have made impressive starts to the new season.

Junior Paulo may play limited minutes, yet his presence remains important for the Eels. (Photo by Cameron Spencer/Getty Images)

Digging deeper down on the list, players like Josh Papali’i, Tom Burgess and Junior Paulo fall well short of the elite, yet playing minutes must be factored in and perhaps a division of the TM figure by the minutes played could be a means by which players are judged on effective metres or tackles per minute of playing time.

For example, Viliame Kikau sits 73rd on the average running metres list with 110.2 per game. He averages 21.1 tackles. His total TM score of 131.3 divided by the 465 minutes he has played across six games equates to 0.28 effective actions per minute.

As a comparison, Carrigan’s TM score of 229 divided by his 469 minutes gives him a final TM per minute score of 0.48, near double that of Kikau. I’ll stand by what I wrote about the Bulldogs second-rower last week.

It will be an interesting exercise to follow the numbers throughout the season and identify the men not just trying, but really trying when it comes to selfless commitment on the field in 2024.

Carrigan certainly sets the standard right now, yet plenty of big men will be challenging him as the season unfolds.

The Crowd Says:

2024-04-20T05:00:21+00:00

matth

Roar Guru


I thought I saw it but it was a Dad giving their two year old daughter a piggy back

2024-04-20T04:00:24+00:00

The Barry

Roar Guru


* tough as teak

2024-04-20T03:23:56+00:00

The Barry

Roar Guru


I like Tino as well Also plays big minutes, work rate not as high as Haas but has a bit more aggression With blue and white goggles on, one of my all time favourite combos was Peter Tunks and Peter Kelly. They were both tough as team but also very skilful players. They played three straight grand finals, winning two Tunks also formed a great combo with Roach in the 86 Origin clean sweep Kelly unlucky not to play more rep footy, but I’d put him up against any prop

2024-04-20T02:06:58+00:00

Sportstragic

Roar Rookie


Yer Webcke and Lazarus had a couple of seasons playing together. Webcke made the Origin team the year Lazurus started playing for Melbourne so it wasnt peak Webcke when they were playing together. Yes Lazarus was a freak! But what Haas has done at his age already if he stays injury free he could be the greatest I have seen. And I really dont like the broncos :laughing:

2024-04-20T01:41:33+00:00

The Barry

Roar Guru


Yeah, really hard to compare across such different eras Did Webcke and Lazarus play together? Webcke and Petero were a brilliant combo too. I’d have JFH and Leota in the convo Lazzo was a freak… he did what he did playing 80 minutes

2024-04-19T22:41:59+00:00

Sportstragic

Roar Rookie


Yer they are great to watch those two forwards. Like a well oiled machine. Would you rate them better than peak Lazarus and young Webcke? Or early 2000's broncos with Civoniceva and Webcke? Its a totally different game now so hard to compare but I wouldnt put the panthers duo above those 2 combinations though

2024-04-19T22:22:54+00:00

Sportstragic

Roar Rookie


Hahahaha yes of course its relevant. We are talking about the hardest working forwards here though. If your halfback puts you thru a gap and you make 50 meters, that's not the same as making 5 tough carries off your line

2024-04-19T12:52:41+00:00

NQR

Roar Rookie


Drinkwater throws 2 flick passes, one at the knees and one over the head at point blank range which resulted in knock ons in a 10m period. Those errors will count against Granville and Laybutt and then he’s getting applauded for a try assist putting up a bomb?

2024-04-19T12:45:01+00:00

NQR

Roar Rookie


I’d love a stat on Tackle busts made going forward to those pin balling sideways. I’ve been calling for error assists to be scored like try assists. So many blokes run sideways and throw pressure passes or badly directed passes that result in errors.

2024-04-19T09:45:17+00:00

Leaguesliterarylovechild

Roar Rookie


Yes, perhaps your examples in isolation are true but over the course of a game, and particularly over the course of a season run metres tell a compelling story. Just like batting averages - not a perfect metric in isolation but they add up over time.

2024-04-19T09:42:27+00:00

Leaguesliterarylovechild

Roar Rookie


Metres gained is totally relevant! It's the point of the game to push back the opposition. Clearly a forward who runs 10 times for 150m is more valuable than a forward who runs 25 times for 75m.

2024-04-19T09:35:27+00:00

The Barry

Roar Guru


Spot on JFH and Leota rarely carry the ball out if their own end. They don’t bother wasting gas even getting onside As you say, they own the middle in defence, they take the hit ups at the attacking end of the field and they batter the opposition into submission They’re the best front row combo I’ve ever seen and not even mentioned in this article… says it all

2024-04-19T09:19:07+00:00

Busty McCracken

Roar Rookie


Hahaha as soon as I got to those last paragraphs about Kikau I realised this entire article was purely written in pettiness but trying to disguise it just to double down on a point made last week. I Don't know whether to be impressed or laugh at the pettiness of it all.

2024-04-19T08:34:42+00:00

Mexican Panther

Roar Rookie


It's a bit like how the Latrell defenders talk about how you don't want him making too many runs out of the backfield because then he'll be too tired to weave his magic in the attacking half. Not all fullbacks perform the exact same role. However, I argue that in the modern game, Latrell is too far this way to be effective at fullback. Teams can't afford to have a fullback with limited endurance or they just start every set on the back foot. They are also vulnerable in defence when their fullback can't cover the ground needed to get to lateral kicks or quick backline passing plays. A Latrell type should defend in the centres but then have the freedom to roam when in the attacking third. Just because a player has a 3 or 4 on his back doesn't mean he needs to stand one inside from the winger on the same side of the field all game. Positional roles can and should be different depending on what a coach has at his disposal across the whole team.

2024-04-19T08:25:22+00:00

Mexican Panther

Roar Rookie


Not all middles perform the same role so in terms of measuring performance the metric is less useful. For example, Fish and Leota aren't really required to amass big run metres in the Penrith system because that's by and large the job of their back five. Fish and Leota's job is to suck in the big ones as they slowly walk back on side while To'o, Edwards and co gain big metres off the back of each other. Then they get involved in the kick chase and have the job of dominating the opposition ball carriers in defence. Again, in defence it's not about quantity either - it's about dominating - getting quality first contact, turning players around or on their back and winning the ruck. The Fish and Leota starting prop combination is widely talked of as the best in the game but neither appears to rate particularly highly on your metric.

2024-04-19T08:15:47+00:00

Mexican Panther

Roar Rookie


I think a metric that combines the two is useful in terms of measuring the total amount of work or energy expended by players...but...as mentioned in others' replies, I think the balance is out in that run metres and total tackles are not directly comparable on a one for one basis. You'd divide run metres by a factor of 3 before adding them together. My guess is that the VB Hard Earned Index that Fox trots out every now and then does something like this.

2024-04-19T08:05:27+00:00

The Barry

Roar Guru


Nah, he’s a dud cause he’s not doing hit ups through the middle like a good forward should :laughing: :laughing: :laughing:

2024-04-19T07:46:22+00:00

Mexican Panther

Roar Rookie


Agreed. You want Kikau doing exactly what he does - using his rare combination of a massive frame, deceptive speed, footwork and skillfull hands to give nightmares to smaller players out on an edge.

2024-04-19T07:44:28+00:00

Bernie

Roar Rookie


cue ... "Stand by your Man"

2024-04-19T07:41:37+00:00

The Barry

Roar Guru


Mostly due to me :laughing: Kikau, not Latrell

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