Thursday, March 24. It’s the day all AFL fans cannot wait for. No more silly season, this is when the real thing arrives.
I’m chomping at the bit like a kid on Christmas Day. The excitement is at a high level. But it’s not at the thought of what my Brisbane Lions are going to bring this year, but what the whole AFL season has in store for us.
This season comes with even bigger potential to be the closest season yet. Fans of all clubs are looking to see how their team fares whether positively or negatively.
And as a fan I thought I’d tackle something slightly different to what we’ve seen on The Roar in the last month. I’m putting on my fortune teller hat to provide five left-field predictions for Roarers to digest.
1. The smallest Coleman Medal winner
That’s right folks, we will have the smallest Coleman Medal winner ever.
No, not the smallest amount of goals to win the Coleman Medal, but the smallest winner physically. The big boys’ domination of the Medal will be broken!
AFL football is an ever-changing beast, and the last few years has seen the mosquito fleet start to exert significant influence on our game. Teams are relying less and less on the big men and finding ways that are seeing smaller players having an impact on the scoreboard.
Eddie Betts, Chad Wingard, Luke Breust and Harley Bennell are types who love to sniff one out, and I’m backing one of these four to sneak up on everyone and snatch away the Coleman!
2. What are finals without Sydney? We are going to find out
With the AFL currently in the middle of a big push in rugby league heartland, the AFL will be having heart palpitations at the thought of the Swans not playing September football.
Usually, Sydney, September and finals is a given. But the Swans’ fantastic recent successful period is coming to a hiatus.
With the recent retirement of Adam Goodes, and a combination of a few key players like Jarrad McVeigh, Ted Richards and Ben McGlynn getting a little older and struggling with injuries, the Swans are going to go all Richmond Tigers on us and just miss out on the top eight by percentages.
3. Crouching Tiger, hidden consistency
I have some really bad news for the whitegoods suppliers of the Greater Richmond area. Your businesses are going to struggle this year when the mighty Tigers and their leaders don’t go missing during the autumn and winter months!
Players like Trent Cotchin, Brett Deledio, Troy Chaplin, Alex Rance, Dustin Martin and even Chris Yarran (just to tick off the long suffering Blues supporters) will have career-best years and be found leading from the front in the trenches from the word go.
No wet sails here, just consistently tough and competitive footy, week in, week out. And you know what? They’ll even win a couple of finals games (shock horror).
4. No AFL coach will be harmed in the making of the 2016 season
The coaching merry-go-round always revs up in the winter months each year. It’s a cutthroat game that has senior coaches always looking in their rear vision mirrors.
But this year, coaches fear not. There will be no playing list losing confidence in you, there will be no CEOs declaring that you have the board’s complete faith.
No negotiating payouts, no assistants grabbing the whistle and telling press conferences we just want them to go out and play with freedom. You can put the coach clichés away, because the ‘out of order’ sign is up on the merry-go-round down at Luna Park!
5. Queen’s Birthday, another rout… just a black and white one
AFL season and the Queen’s Birthday weekend go hand in hand. And usually with those hands comes a Dees shellacking from the club everyone loves to hate: Collingwood.
If it’s not Travis Cloke terrorising the Dees’ key positional players, it’s Scott Pendlebury doing what he pleases around the ground with his silky skills.
You could even imagine Jeremy Howe going all Jeremy Howe on the Dees this year on his way to another speccy.
But no, not this year my friends. Queen’s Birthday weekend will see the Dees finally sprout their wings and do a demolition job on Bucks and his Pies. There will be smashed Pies all over the ground, and I’m not just talking about the heads of those in Joffa’s army.
This will be the making of the Dees. It will spark a big push that gets their fans all wired up for a crack at finals which will ultimately finish peak-Richmond in ninth position.
So, Roarers, what your thoughts? Can any of these actually come true, or what other magical surprises will the 2016 AFL season provide?
I know it’s going to be a cracker and just can’t wait to start hearing the dulcet tones of Bruce McAvaney, Dennis Cometti, Anthony Hudson and company.
Pumping Dougie
Roar Guru
Well Boyd was absent a lot last year and Stringer was our main-man. I don't understand why the media constantly refer to him as a small-medium forward. It's as if somebody in the media made a mistake reporting it this way, and then the myth has been perpetuated. He looks and plays like a key forward. He's just a lot more versatile (quick, agile, etc.) than the bigger hulks (e.g. Hawkins), but as I said, he's a very similar build to Pavlich and Riewoldt, who have been two of the most highly regarded key forwards of the past decade. Plus he's got a big ego, does that count? I accept Gunston has never really played as a key forward.
Gecko
Guest
You're probably right, Dingo. But if the team's morale imploded (last year it wasn't great) in 2016 and they finished bottom 2, it may not make good business sense to keep Leppa and go into 2017 as a basket case. Chances of an implosion are only about 10%. A decent start to the season should see morale pick up.
Gecko
Guest
Dougie you need to look at the weight and position of Gunstan. 81kg (same as Bennell, who Dingo listed as small) and playing alongside Hale or Roughie. May not be small but he's not the traditional big full forward. Stringer might stand at full forward when Tom Boyd is absent but he doesn't play a traditional big full forward role. When Dingo said, "The big boys’ domination of the Medal will be broken!", it's more likely to be correct if you interpret it broadly.
mattyb
Guest
He might Buzz,you could get lucky or Bolton shows the Clarkson assistant well has ran dry and Carlton were again behind the eight ball and made yet another tragic mistake.
The Original Buzz
Roar Rookie
Brendon Bolton will make Clarko look like an amateur this year.
The Original Buzz
Roar Rookie
1. Wingard and Bennell for my money on the Coleman. 2. Sydney will end up around 8 or 9th. 3. Ticked off, long suffering Blues supporter hopes Yarran is the exception to the rule and has a bad year. Sadly, Tigers might do better this year, me thinks. 4. Leppa signed an extension, Buckley is the big bet if they don't perform. Can't remember the last year a coach didn't get the sack. 5. Maybe not a demolition but a close win for the Dee's, and... 6. One of my own, Carlton will not finish 18th.
Don Freo
Guest
Ballas doesn't.
DingoGray
Roar Guru
That is left-field there Pumping Dougie. I just can't see Eddie cutting the umbilical chord. But I might be wrong.
Pumping Dougie
Roar Guru
Buckley is the only coach coming out of contract at the end of 2016. So my left-field prediction is that Collingwood ignore the Hawthorn coaching factory (which will be seen as unfashionable following Mark Neeld like performances from Brendan Bolton this year) and poach the eccentric Bomber Thompson.
Pumping Dougie
Roar Guru
Gecko, the gist of Dingo's 1st prediction was "small forwards". Gunston (193cm) and Stringer (192cm) have the size of key position forwards (e.g. Pavlich, Riewoldt, Tex Walker) and Stringer regularly plays at FF or CHF. But Tory Dickson (50 goals last season) is a sneaky chance!
DingoGray
Roar Guru
Just on coach side of things Gecko, Lions I'm not sure many people expect a huge up swing. I think there will be general improvement but I think the Leppa extension is more acknowledgement from the club that we are working very much from a development point of view and they are going to give him sometime for that. If the Lions were to have a similar season to last year, I don't think that would change where the Board sits with Leppa ie he would still see out the one year extension.
Keagan Ryan
Roar Guru
I'm probably alone here but I thought the heading for number 4 was a bit distasteful considering what happened to Phil Walsh last year... Other than that, great left-field piece. Go Lions!
Epiquin
Roar Guru
It will be a double-edged sword. If the Giants play finals footy and still don't manage to draw a crowd or TV viewers, that could be a major embarrassment for the AFL admin who have consistently stated that the wins will bring the fans.
mattyb
Guest
Not a big fan of the Tigers but I think your selection 3 could be on the money and mainly for the exact reasons you outlined. My big left field tip for the season which could also be good for the game is Lin Jong to win this year's Norm Smith,could probably get some decent odds at this time of the year but I have a sneaking suspicion about this one. Point five is probably a reasonably good one too as it's probably a game Melbourne will really build themselves up for.
DingoGray
Roar Guru
Number 5 is the Lions supporter in me taking any opportunity to take a Pot Shot @ the Black & White Army!
TomC
Roar Guru
I'm going to go the other way: I reckon there's a good chance in 2016 we'll have the tallest ever Coleman Medallist. Tom Lynch, Kurt Tippett, Tom Hawkins, Charlie Dixon and Josh Bruce are all good shots at knocking off the current holder of that somewhat obscure record, which I think is Lance Franklin.
Gecko
Guest
For your first prediction, let me throw in a couple of forward pockets (though not small ones): Jake Stringer and Jack Gunston. Predictions 2 and 3 are okay but could do with more evidence. For your fourth prediction, I agree but Hardwick and Buckley could come under pressure (only from the media) if their teams don't perform, and Leppa was lucky he signed that contract extension before the real footy starts. The Tigers, Pies and Lions are all expected to go higher in 2016 and there'll be trouble if these expectations aren't met. Prediction 5 is baseless chest-beating. But there is one more good prediction. It's hidden in your intro: this could be one of the most even seasons for many years (discounting Essendon and Carlton).
Bob
Guest
For your first prediction, only Eddie Betts would be eligible as the smallest Coleman Medallist. All others tower over former winner Leigh Matthews.
mds1970
Roar Guru
Expanding on point 2 - could this be the year in which GWS Giants becomes the higher-placed Sydney team? You'd probably still get decent odds if you were putting money on it; but the Giants seem to have an upward momentum while the Swans look set to go the other way. There's a chance, although still an outside chance, that there will be representation of the Harbour City in the finals - but it will be orange rather than red and white.