Prior to the Ashes in 2010-11, an off-spinner was considered by many to be the trump card for one of the protagonists.
In a series predicted in the build-up to be closely fought, the tourists’ deal breaker was deemed to be the man confounding accepted theory by taking wickets as a spinner by not bowling leg-spin.
As equally daft as the other belief that you need high-speed to win Test matches – well, they were certainly the theories bandied round this part of the world not so long ago – here was proof that if you did something and did it well then you could have an impact.
Fast forward a few years and, with a different off-spinner forging a successful path, a few rumours have started as to the pivotal individual now belonging to the home side.
To pour cold water on such thoughts, Nathan Lyon won’t be the difference between Australia and England in the upcoming edition of cricket’s marquee series.
Just as Graeme Swann wasn’t the primary reason why England triumphed seven years ago, and he thought his potential influence was seriously overplayed before the hostilities commenced, Lyon won’t decide the destination of the urn come January.
This isn’t to deride his abilities as he is a fine performer in excellent form, but more a nod towards how games tend to pan out at the Gabba, MCG et al.
Even if Lyon has a good series, just as he did the last time England showed up, he won’t be the man winning the games.
It is a bit too easy to point the finger at the man of the moment and serve them up as the one to watch but the necessity to take into account varying factors should see that kind of prediction revised.
Lyon, who has always seemed to be one poor performance away from having his place in the side questioned (he’s not Shane Warne, get used to it), should be in a position where he is one of the first names written down.
A solid practitioner who goes about his business in an unfussy and determined manner, Lyon has improved markedly in the past couple of years.
(AP Photo/Aijaz Rahi)
Gone are the days where his sole tactic was to operate from round the wicket and bowl, in effect, for catches in the leg-side. It had its uses, especially when it came to holding up an end and keeping a lid on the scoring rate, but it gave the impression of a cricketer selling himself short.
But the man who is forever taking an iron off the tee will eventually graduate to the driver when he realises he is capable and how much more can be gained.
The 2017 vintage now offers variety to complement his control and the fact he is closing in on 300 Test wickets should keep the wolf from the door for some time yet.
Nevertheless, how the respective top orders fare is a more crucial factor because, and this is hardly unveiling the nuclear codes, if they offer little then the door will be left wide open.
It’s unlikely to be a low-scoring series so parity at the very least in the area will prove vital.
A glance back at Mitchell Johnson’s tour de force in 2013-14 should serve as a handy reminder of what occurs when paltry totals are posted. No runs on the board negates, to a large degree, what your attack brings to the party and this goes for both sides.
Mitchell Starc, Jimmy Anderson, Josh Hazlewood, Stuart Broad and others can’t operate as they would wish if they’re fire-fighting and this inevitably trickles down to the spinners who would be marginalised with no safety buffer.
The England of 2010-11 piled up hefty totals and dominated and the same was true of Australia three years later. This will be where the contest is decided with collectiveness usurping individuality.
Now, which of the two top sixes fancies it?
Alec Swann
Expert
Ronan It's tricky to draw a comparison as Lyon has almost 300 Test wickets whereas Graeme at the same age was just starting out. Plenty of first-class experience is different to almost learning on the job at Test level. At slightly different ends of the spectrum, Lyon has been naturally more conservative, which appears to be changing, and Graeme had a more adventurous approach. So the Lyon of now and Graeme when he made his debut have quite a few similarities. That Graeme did well straight away was down in no small part to that experience but Lyon has taken quite a bit of time to become what you see now which is a consistently accomplished performer. Graeme had the ability to play a higher level for a while before he did and certainly didn't lose out next to the likes of Richard Dawson and Gareth Batty. But that's a conundrum with no real answer. What I like about Lyon, and this also goes for Graeme, is that they have (or had) no frills about them. It's just straightforward off-spin with variation and whatever nous they've accumulated. Every time a spinner gets picked for England somebody will write an article saying that they need a doosra or are working on one. All nonsense really and both Graeme and Lyon showed, and are showing, that traditional skills executed well can gain reward.
Chris Kettlewell
Roar Guru
It really feels like Lyon has turned a corner since the last Australian summer. Found himself in a lot of ways. People talk about conditions suiting him, but previously he's really struggled in the sub-continent too. He didn't bowl at all well last summer in Australia though. He was going to be dropped for SOK in the Adelaide test but then SOK got injured and Lyon got a reprieve and while he didn't bowl well he did improve over the dross he had been serving up prior to that, and then has continued to improve on the away tours through India and now Bangladesh. Hopefully he can continue that improvement when he gets back into Australia.
Chris Kettlewell
Roar Guru
It would be a lot easier to do something like that if we had a keeper who was doing well with the bat. If we were at least getting mid-30's average out of the keeper then that seems more viable, but with Wade struggling so much with the blade, dropping a batsman seems much more risky.
Chris Kettlewell
Roar Guru
Of express pace bowlers there really are two types. You have rhythm bowlers and effort bowlers. Rhythm bowlers bowl at their quickest when they've just got a good rhythm and seem to do it effortlessly. And often when they've got that rhythm going they simultaneously bowl more accurately and get more movement. It's less linked to how tired they are. Even at the end of a long day it's possible to get a good rhythm going and bowl quick. Effort bowlers don't tend to have the same sort of rhythm. Bowling quick just seems a real strain for them. They put everything into trying to bowl quick. This can often mean they have a choice, either bowl quick, or bowl accurately, but it's harder to do both. And also as the bowler tires through the day it's harder to keep the pace up. Wood has always struck me as more the effort bowler. So he'll bowl the odd spell where he's lightning quick, but trying to just bowl continually quick is harder for him. If he was able to be effective bowling a bit slower, he'd probably be better off bowling a little within himself but maintaining the ability to send down an "effort ball" with that extra pace from time to time to surprise the batsman. But I'm not sure he's got the tools to be effective when bowling slower. When his pace drops below 90mph he tends to look a lot more impotent. Will be interesting to see what happens regarding the 3rd seamer position for England during the Ashes.
ColinP
Guest
A more serious question is whether you would choose Lyon or Ali, if given the choice? Yes Lyon is superior bowler, but the amount he will contribute on Australian pitches withe the ball and the existing Aussie pace battery, I reckon if Ali was Australian then the selectors would plump for his all round abilities over Lyon at home
ColinP
Guest
Serious question? He's not in the same class surely, forget whatever stats you will retort with. In 2010 the talk in cricket was how Swann had reinvigorated finger spin, as alec says when Swann came to Australia, all the discussion was how the Aussies would counter him....that shows how he was considered whether it was really relevant or not. If Lyon has a bad test the talk will again be about whether he keeps his place. I expect him to take a few fine top edges with his top spinner as England batsmen adjust to the bounce when cutting, and likely a few wickets caught behind square on leg side when bowling defensively round the wicket....but little more
ColinP
Guest
87 mph consistently when fit, v repeatable action, weirdly metronomic. When not fit, like headingley test, he bowled 83 mph nearly every ball. Wood has a lot of pace again when fit though, he was bowling 92-95 mph in t20 games a year ago but then got injured again, came back this summer against saffers and bowled around 87 mph at best and was dropped. Turns out he was carrying an injury again, bruised heel, and joe root said it was up to him whether he thought he was fit enough to play. If he is back to full fitness he is rapid, but I can guarantee he won't be fit, or at least won't last more than 2 tests bowling that speed as too much force goes through his lower half in his action
Ronan O'Connell
Expert
G'day Alec, I agree that Lyon won't be a gamechanger in this Ashes, he will be a support bowler for the Aussie quicks more often that not. Lyon is now the same age as your brother was when he made his Test debut .... I'm interested to know how you would compare Lyon right now to Graeme back then? Cheers
Ronan O'Connell
Expert
"Australia would do well to respect Ali’s bowling so as to not give him any cheap wickets." Bunney that is what Australia did in the last 4 Tests of the past Ashes and Moeen took only 7 wickets at an average of 60 in those Tests. In the first Test they tried to smash Moeen, and gave up easy wickets, but in the final 4 Tests they realised they could score really quickly off him (4.5rpo) without taking many risks. If they play Moeen the same way this summer I can't see how he will average less than 50 with the ball in the Ashes and he may well average 70+.....Yasir Shah averaged 84 with the ball in Australia last summer and he is a far better spinner than Moeen..... Ashwin averaged 50 in Australia two years ago. It's a graveyard for visiting spinners.
Bunney
Roar Rookie
hmmm, maybe. We also had the better spinner in the last series (also Lyon vs Ali) and I remember Ali taking some vital wickets; often when the Aussies tried to dominate him to get him out of the attack. Australia would do well to respect Ali's bowling so as to not give him any cheap wickets.
Nudge
Guest
John, it's 2017 not the 70's and 80's anymore. Sure Yardley and Mallet may have great economy rates but that was when a day 1 score of 5 for 240 was going at a crack of a pace. A score of 300 day 1 of a test is regarded as par for the course. Lyon's economy of 3.18 is excellent for any current day spinner
Nudge
Guest
Na, I think he meant 4-0
Alec Swann
Expert
AGordon I agree that Lyon is better equipped now than he was. Also, if he gets 25 wickets that would be a fine effort. I'd like to think England will get after him but that may depend on how well the top three or four counter Starc et al.
Alec Swann
Expert
Jeffrey 'Australia has been something of a graveyard for finger spinners and, off the top of my head, I can’t think of the last finger spinner who was “the difference” between Australia and the visiting team over the course of a whole test series.' Exactly the point I'm making. I never could quite understand why Graeme was considered to be the difference between the sides just as the comments about Lyon that I've seen are wide of the mark. The prevailing conditions, unless something drastic has happened, will see to that.
John Erichsen
Roar Guru
3.18 runs per over hardly suggests that Lyon is regularly effective in tying up an end. Hauritz (2.91) was far more effective in that area, but neither rate as a tight finger spinner. Try Ashley Mallett (2.50), Bruce Yardley (2.66) or even Tim May (2.36) were more that tight style of bowler. Lyon has never really shown himself to have that level of control. Perhaps his stellar 2017 will see a more confident Lyon bowling with better control. I certainly hope so as I would hate to see a repeat of last summer where Lyon bowled pretty much nothing but crap for most of the two test series with the exception of a couple of good spells.
Michael Keeffe
Roar Guru
I agree. Wade currently offers so little with the Bat and Gloves. I'd love to see us go on an all out attack. Top 5 of Warner, Renshaw, Khawaja, Smith, Handscomb and at 6 either bring in another Keeper (not Wade) or if they wanted to give the gloves to Handscomb then bring in another bat at 6. Then Pattinson 7, Starc 8, Cummins 9, Hazelwood 10, Lyon 11. Those four quicks plus Lyon would give the Poms nightmares. Pattinson averages 39 in tests in Australia and while it's only from 7 innings in his injury layoff's all reports are his batting has improved further. Starc averages 29 in Australia with the bat compared to Wade averaging 32 and he's in the team as a bowler who bats at 8. I think it's the way to go and would show our intent to blow the Poms off the park.
Junior Coach
Guest
Lyon doesnt have to be a matchwinning bowler in Australian conditions, that is the beauty of the Australian attack at the moment.It is unlikely that we will get any hard turning tracks but Sydney might if the drought conditions continue. Lyons really only has to take series figures of 17 -18 wickets at 35 to do his job. England have a percieved weakness against high quality pace on hard wickets and thats what will be served up to them . Lyon will be the stock bowler , not the strike bowler.His main weapon in Australia is bounce anyway , and against Englands front foot thrusters its all thats needed. Anyway bring it on , havent looked forward to an Ashes this much in a long time!
Peter
Roar Rookie
4-1 instead of 5-0
JohnB
Guest
Hugh Trumble?
Pope Paul VII
Guest
Looks like the driest and hottest of summers coming up. Should be runs aplenty. Much as I prefer 6 bats and 4 bowlers for the aussies, England might have the edge in the 5th bowler stakes and the lower order batting of Stokes, Bairstow and Ali. On the other hand Stoneman, Westley and Sailor Malan are all new to Australia. Still, I think it might be closer than people think.