Everyone knows I love a good trade hypothetical. In fact, the only thing I love more is a bad trade hypothetical. And that’s what this is.
Something I’ve thought about on many occasions is what it would be like if AFL clubs traded more strategically.
At the moment trading mostly takes the form of convincing a player from an opposition club to defect, then lowballing said club at the trade table until finally one side blinks and a deal is struck.
Clubs and fans have emotional attachments to their players and in the AFL this puts up too much of a barrier for a side to seriously consider trading a high-quality player unless they’re known to want out.
A team like Fremantle might push out a Chris Mayne type every now and then but Adelaide would never have willingly traded Patrick Dangerfield while contracted, even though Melbourne were whispered to have offered both picks 2 and 3 for him.
So please understand that I’m entirely aware that the scenario I’m about to present to you is completely unrealistic.
But if we lived in a world of tactical trading, I really think Melbourne would consider making a deal for Jesse Hogan this year.
We’ve already talked about Tom J Lynch once or twice this preseason, so I won’t discuss his situation in length again here. You get it by now. Let’s say 50/50 chance he decides to come home to a Victorian club at the end of the year.
Richmond and Hawthorn are generally acknowledged to be leading the chase. But if you wanted to pick a Victorian club who is most likely to win a flag before the end of Lynch’s career – and I know this is a big call – it’s neither of them. It’s Melbourne.
The Dees have a list stocked with talent, much of it young, all across the field that is ready to pop. I’m tipping them to be a top-four side this year and a flag contender by the end of the decade.
Can any other Victorian side boast that kind of promise? Maybe Essendon, or the Western Bulldogs. But for mine Melbourne are the leading contender for the title of ‘best Victorian team five years from now’.
That being the case, it’s a destination that makes perfect sense for Lynch to go to – the complication being that they already have a very good key forward in Jesse Hogan.
I’ll leave it to you to decide which of the two you think is the better talent. Whichever side you fall on I suspect we can agree that they’re both top-tier talents as far as key forwards go. Hogan is a little younger, Lynch a little more proven.
Could they play in the same side together? Maybe. But even if they could Melbourne probably don’t have the salary cap room to make that happen. They’ve recruited a lot of experienced talent in recent years and have a number of young players who will be due payrises sooner or later.
Maybe some creative accounting could fit Lynch and Hogan together right now, but it would come at the risk of losing a star player down the line.
So what’s the point of the move then? It comes down to the fact that Lynch is a free agent, and Hogan isn’t.
The Dees could hypothetically sign Lynch without having to give up any trade currency, but then get a good deal at the trade table for Hogan.
Hogan hails from Western Australia, was a Fremantle fan before coming into the AFL, and whenever he is linked to a move home it is always the Dockers who are talked about.
Fremantle have a pretty good young list, but they very much need a player like him to place at the centre of their forward line, and they’d know it.
There’s no doubt in my mind that given the opportunity, Fremantle would pay Hogan whatever he’s getting at Melbourne or more and stump up two first-round picks to bring him across.
It’d be the right call.
The Dees then pitch themselves to Lynch as a club on the rise and ready to contend, something that a deep run into September this season would help with.
They play under the bright lights of the MCG and he should have just as big a media profile there as he’d have at any other side.
The big potential concern is that Gold Coast could match a bid and force a trade – but if they finish on the bottom of the ladder as so many of us are predicting, or near to, I reckon they’d be more likely to decline that right and accept pick No.2 in compensation from the AFL instead.
If all goes to plan the overall result for Melbourne is Hogan out, Lynch and two first-round picks in – effectively cancelling out the heavy price the Demons paid for Jake Lever last October.
And it would mean that Melbourne’s key forward focal point is one committed to seeing out the rest of their career at the club, as opposed to Hogan for whom the lure to return home seems likely to always be a headache.
Combine that with the talent Melbourne already have on their list, and it could set them up to dominate the league for years to come.
Don Freo
Guest
No. Ross does not believe that and he did not say that. You really struggle with this one. This side will play finals and the players you don't know, Sandi, Mundy, Ballas, Johnno will contribute wonderfully. You are a cartoon character who knows nothing about football clubs.
Don Freo
Guest
Duh! There was no question to answer Yes or No to. What do you think the question was? How does courage get involved here? We are typing.
Jon boy
Guest
Great courage don make a good pollie ,could not answer a Yes or No Question answer with absolute dribble.
Dalgety Carrington
Roar Guru
So do you keep and compile the scrapbook of your posts yourself anon, or do you get one of the anonolites/anonomooses to do that now? To be fair, I have actually also kept clippings of your posts from April 8th 2017 (I didn't bother with the copy&paste ones) extending through the run where Freo's listless and lost players won 6 out of 7 (including a couple at the MCG where, as you say, they struggle) and flirted with a top 4 spot: ... I admit it didn't take a huge amount of effort, but you can only deal with what's served up.
Don Freo
Guest
That's probably how you conceptualised it. Needs a simple brain.
Jon boy
Guest
Don really your quote A 'rebuild is a silly media idea' did you see Ross on national TV this week saying that Freo was in there second year of a 'rebuild ' ?????? no i don't suppose you did .Would not have the courage to put your hand up i guess.
anon
Roar Pro
As I wrote 12 months ago: SmithHatesMaxwell said | April 6th 2017 @ 9:59am | ! Report Do you think a team like Adelaide would be putting up scores of 140 with Ross Lyon’s 2016/17 game plan? He’s tactically about 10 years behind the likes of Don Pyke or Beveridge. Serial underperforming veterans have played virtually every single game under Lyon’s tenure. Dawson and Danyle Pearce come to mind. They basically have no incentive to improve their performance because they have never been dropped for poor form. Young players make a mistake during games and their banished back to the state league. He’s killed the confidence of young players and allowed standards to plummet in established players. I have never seen such a listless group of players. They have quit on him. Lyon is now 4-21 in his last 25 games. Neeld got sacked after going 5-28 with a weaker list than Lyon has had at his disposal. I don’t understand the excuses still being made for Lyon. Why weren’t they made for Neeld? Was Neeld a master coach like Lyon who came along to the Demons at the wrong time?
anon
Roar Pro
Thanks mate
anon
Roar Pro
Doesn't quite tell the whole story. Of the 14. Drafted 4 players with several of those players being high draft picks. Traded for 4 players from other clubs. Decent, name players apart from Kersten who was thrown in for free and basically replacing Mayne. Deluca and Grey were delisted and redrafted. Morabito had played 1 game in about 7 years and was just taking up space at the club That's 11 accounted for. 11 that put the club in a better position with a good mix of high draft picks and experience.
Paul D
Roar Guru
Since you seem intent on continuing to talk broad strokes without citing any evidence, I guess I'll have to keep cleaning up after you by injecting facts and data into the conversation. Here is a full list of everyone the Dockers cut or lost at the end of 2016 http://www.afl.com.au/news/review-2016/retirements-and-delistings That's 14 players - equal 2nd with Carlton who were also knee deep in cleaning out their list, and second only to Essendon who obviously had an artificially high level of list changes following the 2016 season, given they had to cut most of their top-up players Matthew Pavlich (retired) Michael Barlow (delisted) Sean Hurley (delisted) Tanner Smith (delisted) Anthony Morabito (delisted) Tendai Mzungu (delisted) Matt de Boer (delisted) Clancee Pearce (delisted) Jack Hannath (delisted) Brady Grey (delisted) Josh Deluca (delisted) Alex Silvagni (delisted) Shane Yarran (delisted) Chris Mayne (free agent - Collingwood) So that's 14 players gone. They brought in 4 players - Hill, Hamling, Kersten and McCarthy, and drafted 4 players - Logue, Darcy, Cox and Ryan. Really, your argument now, is that despite Freo cleaning out 14 players, equal highest in the league of teams with conventional lists in 2016, you're saying it was a failure because they didn't clean out Suban. Maybe the fact Suban's contract was due to expire in 2017 had something to do with that? Why pay him out for a year when you've just axed a ton of veterans and he'd be a handy insurance policy to plug a hole in the midfield. Might as well get something for what they were paying him. On the strength of what I've outlined above I have no hesitation in declaring Freo's turnover in 2016/17 to be sound and sensible management.
anon
Roar Pro
And my argument is that Ross did the right thing in giving them the first two rounds (and enough rope) to either hang themselves or show they still had something to offer That's what 2016 was for. If you needed 2016, the 2016 offseason, and the first two games of 2017 to figure out that Dawson, Suban, etc wouldn't be part of the next premiership tilt then you're a very poor coach. If it's a rebuild you don't start the year rolling out one of the oldest sides in the league. Rebuild by definition means playing youth. Keep some star players like Mundy, you get rid of fringe players like Suban. Simple concept.
Jon boy
Guest
Your just another one that is not interested in talking footy, you should transfer to Rockingham you would be a great fit there.
Jon boy
Guest
Just look in the mirror Cat ,not interested in playing your little games.
Cat
Roar Guru
Dalgety Carrington
Roar Guru
And yet Freo turned out the second youngest team to win in 2017 and the youngest to beat a team older than them. A season is a fair journey (a "rebuild" more so), it just might be good policy to pace yourself accordingly.
Jon boy
Guest
Your level is continued insults and name calling ,a big sign of weakness and being a loser .I have not read where anon stoops to that level.
Paul D
Roar Guru
And my argument is that Ross did the right thing in giving them the first two rounds (and enough rope) to either hang themselves or show they still had something to offer
anon
Roar Pro
The whole point of the argument is that the first two rounds (in a rebuilding year) Rossy rolled out one of the oldest teams in the league. It was an old, old team.
Jon boy
Guest
Anon has summed up this whole debate there are "only 3 players over 30 that should not be on the list there hasbeens ,non contributors,failed dismally in finals under pressure, would not get on another list in the competition.You do not maintain players like this just because there veterans and the Young players might get tired rubbish. Fremantle have lots of young experienced players Fyfe, Neale, S & B. Hill ,Hamling,Walters,Matera,Wilson and throw in a couple oldies Mundy and Johnson . Tucker,Ryan,Mccarthy,Langdon,Blakely even Bennell If he can get on the park Rotate Brayshaw ,Banfield Cerra,Giro Northand Switkowski i could go on.
Don Freo
Guest
You think you are making a footy comment and then suggest Sandilands should not be playing? You continue with the comedy. You will get that towering intellect, JonBoy, to agree. That's your level, anon.