AFL preview series: Sydney Swans - 1st

There are two ways to look at the Sydney Swans.

Most people go with the flow, and hold them up as the poster-club for sustained success, in awe of their longevity of contention, congratulating and admiring them for their uber-consistency. It’s a fair enough position to hold, albeit one lacking depth of thought.

Then there is the other point of view, the one where you have to swim upstream in order to hold it, and that is that John Longmire has overseen a savage waste of talent in his time at the helm of the club.

“But he’s a premiership coach!” is the standard response. And he is. He has a single premiership to his name. But is that a successful coaching career if he should have won more with the most talented list in the competition? The simple answer is no.

AFL coaches get moved on all the time, and the single defining factor is that they ultimately fail to meet expectation. But Longmire has repeatedly failed to meet expectations, or to get the most out of his team.

But perhaps winning isn’t everything up at the Swans. Perhaps near enough is good enough. That consistency is more important than achieving. Sydney as a city doesn’t engage with sport like they do in Melbourne. There are no media critics demanding more, holding them to a higher standard. There are no microwaved memberships or hysterical talkback callers.

A ruthless, never satisfied Alastair Clarkson won Hawthorn four premierships. That’s success.

Let’s see if Longmire can get it right this year.

B: Nick Smith Heath Grundy Dane Rampe
HB: Callum Mills Lewis Melican Jarrad McVeigh
C: Jake Lloyd Josh Kennedy Dan Hannebery
HF: George Hewett Lance Franklin Kieren Jack
F: Tom Papley Sam Reid Gary Rohan
Foll: Sam Naismith Isaac Heeney Luke Parker
Int: Callum Sinclair Zak Jones Nic Newman Will Hayward
Em: Oliver Florent Dean Towers Harry Cunningham

John Longmire (Photo by Ryan Pierse/Getty Images)

Sydney enters 2018 with much the same group of players they took into 2017, at least in regard to the senior team. They didn’t lose anyone out of their best 25 to 30 players, and haven’t added any to that group either.

Despite the Swans’ 0-6 start last season, they still ended the home-and-away rounds ranked first for points conceded.

Heath Grundy, Jarrad McVeigh, Nick Smith and Dane Rampe have all played a lot of football together, and know each other well. The first two are well on the wrong side of 30 these days, and Smith will hit the number this year. Rampe missed seven matches with a broken arm last season, and never quite had the impact we know he can on his return.

These four will use their experience to hold the backline together, as some younger players get exposed through there.

Lewis Melican was the find of 2017 for Sydney, slotting into the back six seamlessly with his poise and athleticism. Yet another rookie list success story for this club. Yes, they’ve been handed some favours over the years, but never let it be said they aren’t one of the great player developers of the competition.

The on-ball division will once again be led by Josh Kennedy, who basically plays the same game of football 20-odd times a season. Luke Parker and Daniel Hannebery will ride shotgun, as ever, making a formidable trio.

Isaac Heeney is the player we are just begging to see take the next step, similar to his fellow 2014 draftee Christian Petracca. If Heeney can realise his potential, he’ll be on the verge of being a top ten player in the league by year’s end.

Isaac Heeney (AAP Image/Julian Smith)

Jake Lloyd and Callum Mills will have roles rotating through the middle and half-back, providing valuable service. Lloyd is one of the most precise kicks in the game, while it’s easy to forget Mills is yet to play 50 matches given how assured he looks out there.

Zak Jones and George Hewett are youngsters that got more midfield time through 2017, with Hewett doing well enough in his roles to finish fifth in the best and fairest. Not a bad achievement given some of the illustrious company he takes the field with.

Sydney basically pioneered the idea that you don’t need a dominant ruck, just a warm lump to stand there and compete. As good as Shane Mumford was, it was no coincidence that he was offloaded once the salary cap got tight after the arrival of Kurt Tippett and Buddy Franklin. You can always find another ruckman.

Sam Naismith was supposed to fill the lump role this year, but went down with an ACL. Callum Sinclair and Darcy Cameron are the only other ruckmen on the list after Tippett’s retirement. Longmire has often run a two-ruck structure, but will likely go with one now.

Franklin is still the focal point of the forward line, and will be for a while yet. Sam Reid is never going to be more than what he currently is, and can back-up ruck if they only want to run with Sinclair. Much maligned Dean Towers is another that can fill this role, albeit in more of a Shaun Grigg type way, and did so at times last year.

Lance Franklin (AAP Image/David Moir)

Tom Papley is one of the most consistent small forwards around, and possess a lethal right foot. Gary Rohan still goes in and out of games, but that seems to be who he is. Kieren Jack has been converted to a pressure forward these days. Papley, Rohan and Jack are all quick across the turf, so can chase, harass and tackle, which is so important in today’s game.

There’s plenty of talent alright. They’ve got All Australians and Rising Star winners wherever you look, plus plenty of other nominees.

People say Adelaide was the best side across the whole 2017 season. Clearly Richmond had no peer in September. But no team was as consistently good for as long as the Swans were from Round 7 to the first week of finals, where they went 17-2 in that stretch, with both losses being by six points.

It means they’re entitled to be premiership favourites heading into a new year.

A steadier for Sydney is they do have the most brutal opening six games of any team. First-up is West Coast at the new Perth stadium, followed by expected contenders Port and Greater Western Sydney at home, the Bulldogs at Etihad, Adelaide at the SCG, and Geelong down at Kardinia Park.

Even a 3-3 start from that lot would leave them 9-4 at worst heading into their bye after a run of easier opposition.

It’s a platform from which a top-four finish should be theirs. Will the Swans then be able to go on and claim premiership glory, or will John Longmire fail again?

Prediction – first

Full 2018 AFL ladder prediction
1. Sydney Swans
2. Adelaide Crows
3. Port Adelaide Power
4th: Geelong Cats
5th: Richmond Tigers
6th: Melbourne Demons
7th: Greater Western Sydney Giants
8th: Essendon Bombers
9th: Hawthorn Hawks
10th: Collingwood Magpies
11th: Western Bulldogs
12th: St Kilda Saints
13th: West Coast Eagles
14th: North Melbourne Kangaroos
15th: Fremantle Dockers
16th: Brisbane Lions
17th: Carlton Blues
18th: Gold Coast Suns