In the lead up to State of Origin much has been made of the defensive deficiencies of James Maloney and whether New South Wales are prepared to carry his defence into State of Origin.
The rest of Maloney’s game is not in question as his ability to lead a side around the park, his kicking game and ability to create attacking opportunities for himself and his teammates are first class, but reports suggest NSW coach Brad Fittler is not looking at James Maloney as one of his halves mainly because of his defence.
Let’s have a look at the defence of the halves in the NRL and see how Maloney stacks up.
There have been 38 players who have spent significant time in the halves for their club sides this year (at least four games), and 27 of those players have a tackle effectiveness of between 80 per cent and 89 per cent – that is, they make between 80 per cent and 89 per cent of the tackles they attempt.
For halves, who have big men run at them all game to tire them out, anything over 80 per cent is acceptable and anything over 90 per cent is very good.
So how did the players fare? Let’s start with the good.
There are six players who have a tackle effectiveness of 90 per cent or over. These players are defensive assets to their teams when so many other halves are much lower. They are:
- Kieran Foran – 90 per cent
- Daly Cherry-Evans – 90 per cent
- Cooper Cronk – 90 per cent
- Jeremy Marshall-King – 93 per cent
- Ryley Jacks – 94 per cent
- Nathan Cleary – 94 per cent
Not far behind this group were Kody Nikorima, Luke Keary and Adam Reynolds, all on 89 per cent.
(AAP Image/Michael Chambers)
Let’s get to the bad. There were five halves with a tackle effectiveness of under 80 per cent.
Mitchel Moses has a tackle effectiveness of 79 per cent, only 1 per cent behind Benji Marshall and Kane Elgey, but Marshall has never been noted for his defence and Elgey was dropped for his. If Moses does get the opportunity to play Origin, you can be sure that there will be Queensland forwards running at him all game.
Next is Mason Lino with 78 per cent, which is significantly lower than the man he replaced in Shaun Johnson (87 per cent) and the other half for the Warriors, Blake Green (85 per cent).
Next in the pecking order is Johnathan Thurston with 77 per cent. I doubt this is a surprise to anyone, with opposition coaches regularly sending mountains of traffic his way to test those busted shoulders. Interestingly, in 2015, when the Cowboys won the premiership, JT had a tackle effectiveness of 85 per cent.
Down to the final two. The second-worst halves defender in the NRL is Luke Brooks with a tackle effectiveness of 75 per cent. Brooks’s defence has always been a weakness and one wonders if he is ever going to be seriously in the running for an Origin birth until he fixes this part of his game.
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And finally the winner – or loser, depending on which way you view this – with a staggeringly low tackle effectiveness of 62 per cent and confirming all expectations is James Maloney.
Wow! Is it any wonder Brad Fittler is looking elsewhere for his halves? You could carry a player of Maloney’s experience if it was in the high 70s, but 62 per cent is just terrible.
Maloney has never been an amazing defender, but in 2015 he was at 82 per cent; in 2016, when the Sharks won the premiership, it was 80 per cent; and last year it dropped down to 70 per cent. As good as Maloney is with the ball, one wonders if he doesn’t fix this, it might cost the Panthers in the big games in 2018.
To give some perspective, Maloney’s best defensive performance of the year is when he made 73 per cent of attempted tackles against the Cowboys in Round 4, so his best is still worse than Luke Brooks’s average of 75 per cent, which shows how far Maloney really has fallen in terms of his defensive ability. In the Panthers Round 3 loss to the Bulldogs Maloney made only 50 per cent of his attempted tackles.
I was surprised when I first heard that Brad Fittler was seriously considering not picking Maloney. I figured, like everyone else, he had a lock on one halves position. After looking at this I would now be very surprised if Maloney is running out for the Blues at the MCG in Origin 1.
Matt
Guest
If his defence is such an issue, why haven't Penrith dropped this guy permanently to NSW Cup? Why are they keeping him in a jersey purely for his great leadership, his organisational expertise, his peerless kicking and goalkicking, one of the few halves in the game that consistently makes clean breaks, his high level of try assists, including the odd one himself, his calm head when the team is behind. Regardless of all these attributes, why bother picking him for NSW. Penrith obviously have no idea what they are doing, right ?
BA Sports
Roar Guru
Thank you for reminding people that Rugby League is a team game decided by who has the most points at the end of (usually) 80 minutes. The Panthers are currently in 2nd place and have conceded the second fewest points in the competition (2 behind the Dragons). Maloney's teams for the lat two seasons have conceded the second fewest and third fewest points respectively. So as much as I like stats you can't use them in isolation. In isolation they never tell the whole story, just the one you want.
Big Daddy
Guest
One of the reasons he misses tackles is that most astute coaches run their edge forwards at smaller guys like the halves so he's not alone. Look at Mitchell and Roberts the other night. Both missed crucial tacles at various times. Aitken ran around inglis earlier this year. Are we going to keep playing fill in full backs or pick people in their right position. We saw what happened with Boyd last year. qld soon rectified that. Either pick either Roberts or Mitchell or just don't bother. My bet is Dugan will get the nod. Or are we going to pick Trojbovic over Addo Carr. Next week's match between dragon's and Panthers will decide Cleary and Maloney s fate.
Forty Twenty
Guest
Maloney has gone to a fair number of clubs and in theory because he is the worst defender in the comp it would be entirely logical to assume each of these clubs suffered defensively after he arrived. I've checked and posted on the issue before because in reality the opposite happens. The points conceded drop dramatically and he leads teams to titles and grand finals. The Maloney paradox is the same as the sin bin paradox, the effect of both of them is the opposite to what logic leads us to believe.
Ray Paks
Roar Rookie
RUBBISH!! James Maloney is not the reason why NSW lost the series he was involved in, far from it. screw what the clubland stats say, he has performed very well for NSW in origin and if Fittler is looking at Moses, he's not actually looking at Moses, he is looking at defeat in game 1, at least
no one in particular
Roar Guru
Thank you
Nat
Roar Guru
I don't think Freddie is going to leave him out but it would be neglectful not to highlight the situation. Maloney will be a leader in that team and Freddie has told him where he believes he needs to see more effort. In a lot of instances it would appear (IMO) Jimmy is simply trying to get his body in front without actually attempting to effectively tackle him. The problem is that could possibly become habit if not addressed at doing that in Origin may just cost a series.
kk
Guest
Enjoy your scholarship MK. Looks like first round scores in a golf club championship. Maloney should turn pro. (smile)
Nat
Roar Guru
So who do you blame for the Gagai try in G2 last yr? Graham misses the rushed tackle on the halfway and McGuire runs 30m offloads to Chambers who comes inside and Hayne slips over. Chambers passes to Gagai who goes over tin the corner. If Maloney misses a tackle and Qld go another 40 m down the park and score 2 plays later. Is it Jimmy fault for the missed tackle earlier or the bloke who missed the final tackle? Making a tackle on the line is simply making up for the missed earlier tackle.
Aem
Guest
Team-wide effective tackle rate had a 0.048 correlation coefficient with ladder position at the end of last season. So... no. It doesn't even strongly correlate to only defensive outcomes, let alone overall results... the coefficient between ET% and tries conceded per game was -0.233 - so there is SOMETHING there... but very little. You're capturing too much noise in the metric.
Aem
Guest
I think you have misunderstood my point. I am not talking about positional difference - that is a totally different thing. I'm not saying you're comparing a half to a centre, or a second rower. I'm saying that comparing halves between different teams is nowhere near as simple as looking at effective tackle rate - because that includes a lot of stuff that isn't actually telling us how good the player is as a defender. Those halves might both play the same position on the defensive line, but are asked to make significantly different types of tackles. Halves in one system, for example, may be making 5 or so extra 'easy' tackles per game. That is a boost to your ET% - and not actually reflective of your ability to defend. When you've got a great defender on either side of you, you're going to be isolated much less and forced to make less 1 on 1s or otherwise 'hard' tackles... meaning you're going to miss (or be ineffective in) less.. despite not being any better or worse a defender. Then you've got things like defensive plays where you are so bad it's not even a missed tackle, but it ends up being a catastrophic result for your team (linebreak->try). The worst defensive plays aren't even captured by effective tackle rate... The metric has its uses, but the way you're using it isn't particularly robust. (FYI I'm seeing very different numbers to what you are putting out there... where are you getting these from?) Maloney is a below average defender, to be sure. But he's not actually hugely down on his career form - those numbers are lying to you, watch the tape. And that career ability is proven to be good enough to win (positive win rate at every club he's been to except 4 games during Origin at the Storm (50%), 3 grand finals and 2 premierships)... in part because as long as he's not catastrophic, how good you are in defence as a half doesn't actually matter that much - it's a nice bonus, but once you hit the 'not catastrophic' threshold there are diminishing returns on defensive ability... halves are there primarily to influence the game on the other side of the ball.
Rellum
Roar Guru
Indeed. I have always though the fans have got too caught up in statistics and as you say, they aren't even using the right ones, or even all of them.
no one in particular
Roar Guru
What is tackle efficiency? What correlation is there between tackle efficiency and the result of the game? How many extra points conceded is a 70% efficiency rate against. 90%?
Michael Keeffe
Roar Guru
Before last nights games the list was Cleary 94% Jacks 94% *Marshall-King 93% Cherry-Evans 90% Cronk 90% Foran 90% Reynolds 89% *Nikorima 89% Keary 89% Pearce 88% Johnson 87% Frawley 87% Austin 87% Sezer 87% *Peachey 86% Walker 86% Munster 86% Taylor 86% Watson 86% Croker 85% Green 85% Lamb 85% Norman 84% Milford 84% Morgan 84% Townsend 84% Croft 84% Williams 84% Hunt 81% Widdop 81% Moylan 81% Marshal 80% Elgy 80% Moses 79% Lino 78% Thurston 77% Brooks 75% Maloney 62% *indicates they have played other positions other than in the halves in some games.
Jacob
Guest
Wouldve been interesting to see the full list
Rellum
Roar Guru
Maloney scares me far more than any other NSW half. He is a winner. Teams always perform better after he arrives and he creates wins. I have always heard his denfense has always been terrible but he is still the most effective half NSW has.
Michael Keeffe
Roar Guru
Maloney has made a similar number of tackles to other halves this season. No huge difference, they all make between 18 - 22 per game. Most between 18-20.
Michael Keeffe
Roar Guru
Not doubting his attacking credentials at all. He is just so much worse defensively than any other half in the game. It's why Fittler is looking elsewhere.
Michael Keeffe
Roar Guru
I agree and I wouldn't compare and edge backrower to a middle forward. But I am compariing halves with each other who all defend on the edge. Maloney's tackle count is in the same range of 18 - 22 tackles per games as pretty much all the other halves in the competition so it's not like he's making less tackles than all the other halves. If he came in at 78% or something I wouldn't have bothered writing about it. Comparing Ben Hunt at 81% to Michael Morgan at 84% wouldn't be valid for all the reasons you mentioned above. But Maloney is that far below every other half in the comp over 10 rounds that it can't be an anomaly or misleading statistics. To put it another way the top halves in the game average 2 missed tackles per game. Maloney averages 7 missed tackles per game. That has to hurt a team at some point.
Paul
Roar Guru
but not Cleary who everyone is touting as a SOO certainty.