It’s been a tough last decade for New South Wales Blues fans in the men’s State of Origin arena.
The Queensland Maroons, led by Cameron Smith, Johnathan Thurston, Billy Slater, Greg Inglis and Cooper Cronk, have won 11 out of the last 12 series, establishing a dynasty that footy fans may never see the likes of again.
But, with his selection of 11 Blues debutants last Monday night including Jack de Belin, Reagan Campbell-Gillard, Damien Cook and Josh Addo-Carr, Brad Fittler has almost single-handedly reinvigorated the State of Origin concept, which was getting a bit stale.
When the Blues run out onto the MCG on Wednesday night, it will be as favourites and to be honest, it will probably be the first time in the last decade that the squad on the field has rightfully earnt that title.
I’ve tipped the Blues to beat the Maroons on Wednesday night by eight points. Here’s how they are going to do it.
The side that Fittler has selected is different from previous Origin squads because it is a side picked genuinely form. Almost every single player in that squad deserves their place and plenty of players who have been stalwarts for the Blues in recent seasons like Josh Jackson, Wade Graham and Aaron Woods have not been selected based on their form this year.
In the past, we’ve seen a strategy employed by other coaches, where players have been picked because they are ‘typical’ Origin players. What I mean by that is the selection of players that play with grit, are tough and have the ability to grind out a win. In the past, we potentially would have seen Cameron McInnes picked ahead of Cook because of he’s a tough player – didn’t he once play without a tooth?
This is not your typical State of Origin team.
This team has been selected to play fast and exciting football. Fittler has selected a team that he thinks is capable of scoring more than 20 points and based on the squad’s club form, I’m backing them in to do so.
Look at the backs. I would argue that there has never been a faster backline in State of Origin history than James Tedesco, Tom Trbojevic, Latrell Mitchell, James Roberts and Addo-Carr. Between them, they’ve scored 30 NRL tries this season (led by Addo-Carr on 12).
What is particularly tantalising is that one of the strengths of Nathan Cleary and James Maloney at the Penrith Panthers this year has been getting good early ball to their outside backs.
(AAP Image/Dave Hunt)
If Freddie employs this strategy on Wednesday night and we see Cleary passing the ball to Maloney and then Maloney hitting the chest of Roberts or Mitchell, I imagine these men will be very hard to stop.
I’ve mentioned the pace of the Blues backline, but this is a team with speed to burn all over the field. It could, in fact, be the fastest Origin squad in history, particularly with the likes of Paul Vaughan, Tyson Frizell and Cook selected as well. This team will be quick through the middle and in the halves.
I’m particularly looking forward to watching Cook who I think will have a field day, particularly off the back of quick plays of the ball from de Belin and Angus Crichton. Even without a quick play of the ball, I back Cook to be able to get past almost everyone, particularly as the game progresses.
Speaking of the halves, this is the first time in a decade that the Blues playmakers have been in better form than their Queensland counterparts. After this State of Origin series, we will know whether Ben Hunt is interested in being a representative player. Much of the Maroons chances will rest on whether Hunt decides to run the football on Wednesday night.
(Photo by Matt King/Getty Images)
For the Blues, I’ve seen plenty of talk that this is the Origin pairing to lead the Blues into the next decade. That talk has made me laugh, because I look forward to seeing Maloney lining up for the Blues in a decade when he is 42 years old.
But I get their point, particularly in relation to Cleary who I hope is helped, looked after and mentored so that he has a genuine opportunity to be the future for the Blues.
I mentioned earlier that I thought almost every single player in the Blues squad deserved to be picked. But Euan Aitken, who is the in-form centre in the competition at the moment, was hard done by. Mitchell may have plenty of flair, but he does have a tendency to go missing at crucial points, particularly when his team is trying to get out of their own defensive zone.
That is when the Blues will need Mitchell the most and I hope that he really steps up, because at this stage he has fewer yardage runs than almost every back who has played more than five NRL games in the last 18 months.
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Despite all this, you would be a fool to completely write off the Maroons. The Maroons love being the underdog and even with all the talk of the ‘demise’ of their squad, it still looks pretty good to me, particularly their bench with Coen Hess, Josh Papalii, Jai Arrow and Michael Morgan.
I may be tipping the Blues, but a win won’t come easy.
If I’m wrong (which judging on my tipping form from this year could very well be the case!), the important thing for Blues fans to remember is not to throw the baby out with the bathwater. This team must be given the opportunity to grow together and to be afforded the same chances to succeed as the team selected over the last ten years.
I’m looking forward to Game 1 on Wednesday night, perhaps I’ll actually be able to wear my Blues scarf out of the MCG with some semblance of pride.
Big Mick
Guest
Based on 2018 nrl form blues should be 1.30 favourites. Possibly shorter given no Cam Smith. Too many injury concerns over Qlders Ie Hunt Maguire Arrow and Slater although the latter now out plus pretty certain Morgans groin not 100% Not sure QLD have had anywhere near an ideal prep- they will need to draw on the famous Qlder spirit then some... Things that would help QLD would be a wet slow pitch ( not likely ) and a slower tempo game with plenty of penalties blown. Imho the focus in SOO 1 not so much the Blues obvious speed outwide moreover their likely ruck dominance lead by Klemmer Vaughan RCG & Co who are all capable of quick play the balls. SOOs won in the middle and Papalii probably the only QLD forward in decent form. Come the 2nd half I expect plenty of quick dummy half runs from the likes of both wingers / Cook / Peachy etc against a back pedalling forward pack QLD likely to concede plenty of penalties on their line to slow down the play the ball - could see the Blues inch ahead in increments of 2. 18- 6 the Blues or thereabouts , I dont expect game 1 will be a blowout. Then Blues 40+ in Sydney when their attack kicks in. If Blues comfortably home in game 1 come game 2 they will start the shortest favourites in SOO history and probably rightly so. Klemmer a decent bet for man of the match...
Raugeee
Guest
I think NSW deserve to be favourites. If everything goes their way they have the pace to really take advantage. However, unlike Game 1 last year, this is not a poor QLD side. It will be a hard fought contest, and judging by the way the Blues are all grinning like maniacs, I am hoping they're not mentally right for the match. Game 1 2001, QLD had 10 debutants, NSW were all smiles at training, following the 56-16 humiliation of QLD in Game 3 2000, Bryan Fletcher etc were seen practicing trick plays and clowning around. The result? QLD won 34-16. I am wondering if the NSW debutants really understand what they're going into. BTW - I have been really disillusioned by the refereeing in the NRL - if SOO is ruined as a spectacle, I'm voting with my feet. Plus - I sincerely hope Kevvie chooses Ponga for fullback. He is the way of the future.
mark
Guest
the QLD backline looks pretty good to me and the QLD forwards also look strong When I first saw the NSW team I thought it looked the strongest team picked in ages but when I compared the two backlines I actually think they're equal if not favouring QLD through experience and with the presence of Inglis.
Bunney
Roar Rookie
Sorry Mary, I like ya, but you're wrong on a few counts here. I'm not brave enough to say Qld will beat NSW - it could go either way (der!), but some of your reasoning was tenuous at best. Firstly - NSW have rightly earnt the title of favourites? How? I think Freddy has selected a good team, but when 2/3 of your team are rookies, you do not earn favourite status. It is gifted to you by excitable zealots. Secondly - your prognosis that this is the first time in a decade NSW have better halves - big time tenuous! You state we're about to find out if Ben Hunt wants to be a rep player...Hunt and Munster, while limited in Origin appearances, have both represented Australia with aplomb. I think all the halves still have questions to answer - Munster was awesome in his one appearance, but Maloney has been awesome in one-offs too where his team where on top. Munster will be tested in this series when his team isn't winning, as will all the halves. But Cleary especially - the only one with NO senior rep experience. My last point isn't a criticism - I am just really surprised no one has run with your line about toughness / fit for Origin and McInnes playing while missing a tooth...linking that requisite with toothless banjo-playing Qld'ers - no wonder they've been so dominant in Origin...
Bunney
Roar Rookie
Ka-pow!
TigerMike
Guest
Hey Mary Thanks for your prediction mate I hope you're right! I think we'll win too, partly because we've let go of the regular losers, I'm just not entirely sure of all the team selected.. But I'm sure you're on the money for this first game, Blues by 12.
Bunney
Roar Rookie
Its a team game - he was behind a beaten pack RCG outplayed Vaughan - does that make Vaughan a poor selection?
Paul
Roar Guru
Now that Billy's gone, NSW have another reason for winning. Interesting to see how Qld go without any of the their recetn spine.
Mango Jack
Roar Guru
Cleary outplayed Hunt weekend before last.
Someone
Guest
"In the past, we potentially would have seen Cameron McInnes picked ahead of Cook because of he’s a tough player – didn’t he once play without a tooth?" - What, he got them all smashed out:)
Matt H
Roar Guru
Would you walk past a statue of Nate Myles, crouched down an a hotel room and not cringe just a little and find an excuse to be elsewhere?
thomas c
Guest
it's a good team. But it's been a good team before and managed to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory. I avoid making predictions because a little bit of bad luck (a bad call, a bad roll of the ball, an injury) could change the momentum and then the score could 20 points different.
ja ja klazo
Guest
Shame Slater won't be there then...
Nat
Roar Guru
Petro doesn't need a statue, they wheel him out front every year signing autographs and selfies. I'm embarrassed for the big fella. Plus Qld State Govt is nearly broke they're arguing over a statue of Alfie, imagine what Petro and Pricey would set them back!
The Barry
Roar Guru
Haha...away fans from NSW would just stop showing up...?
Matt H
Roar Guru
They wanted to put them up, but they were so fierce they scared everyone away from the ground.
The Barry
Roar Guru
I’ll have to visit the bronze statues of Johnson, Petero and Pricey outside Suncorp next time I’m up that way...?
DP Schaefer
Guest
Nat, When you put it that way …. lol I'll be interested to see how Hunt goes... I'm not convinced about him yet, his form has slipped a bit at Dragons. And the entire Origin concept will be challenged by de Belin on Hunt. Does Jack really smash him, win Origin but risk putting Dragons behind the 8-ball? Dilemma
Matt P
Roar Rookie
Also add to the points that Slater is still around, and absolutely still has it. As does GI. Really good point on Gillett, people haven't really seemed to pick up on that. Probably the deciding factor in retaining Cooper; we've still got one experienced workhorse that way. I wonder at what point NSW will realise that all this pre-series hype about always being better than us doesn't work?
Nat
Roar Guru
Be kind Matt, you know these NSW scribes have blocked out all but Joey 05 and "why didn't Hayne pass". Qlders pay homage to Pricey, Petro and Dallas Johnson while NSW still believe it's about the individual.