The more Origin changes, the more it stays the same

By AJ Mithen / Expert

Stop me if you’ve heard this one before… State of Origin kicks off tonight with New South Wales rampant favourites, Queensland a camp in crisis.

Queensland have been rocked by last-minute injury dramas and selection queries, while NSW are settled and have had smooth sailing from go to whoah.

Media coverage has all but ignored the team in maroon amidst a blizzard of excitement about the Blues, complaints about where the game is being played, pre-emptive wailing about referees and stupid bets between politicians desperately trying to look sporty.

A cursory scan of the press would have you believe NSW only have to show up to sweep the series 3-0. Obituaries for Queensland have been coming thick and fast, and not all of them from outside the state.

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Does all that sound familiar? I’m talking about 2018, but this could apply to pretty much any Origin series during the last 15 years.

It’s all part of the theatre. Look out for the Daily Telegraph’s home state cover art and incredibly biased match coverage. I don’t mind that and there’s no real point getting uppity about it – because the Courier Mail will be doing the same further up the coastline.

One of my favourite things about Origin is the Channel Nine commentary team splitting along state lines, while Ray Warren tries to maintain a veneer of professional impartiality. Some folks complain about this but I’m all for it – it’s all authentic fun in an Australian sporting environment which tends to take itself a bit too seriously.

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Although these traditional aspects of an Origin series seem well and truly entrenched, lately there are a few glitches in the matrix, some subtle changes which could grow into something more down the line.

After a decade of mediocre returns, the Blues finally decided to get rid of the ‘proven Origin performers’ who were inexplicably being selected year on year on year on year.

Queensland have had their hand forced a little with the representative retirements of Cooper Cronk, Johnathan Thurston and Cameron Smith, but I’m not alone in thinking that Kevin Walters might have fallen into the old NSW school of selecting players on reputation and past glories rather than form.

He’s in a tough place, is Walters. A lot of the form he wants to see just isn’t there. His forwards have been passable in club games, his backs have been okay without a real standout.

The Maroons are settling for a team that has done the job before, built for a grind with strong defence. That could mean trouble.

Walters is making a mistake leaving out Kalyn Ponga, the most exciting young talent the northerners have seen since Billy Slater burst onto the scene in 2003. How Anthony Milford ends up in the team ahead of Ponga is a mystery to me. The Newcastle gamebreaker could work some magic with Greg Inglis.

Photo by Tony Feder/Getty Images

On the other side of the field, there’s been more than enough written and spoken about Brad Fittler’s 11 debutants. He’s been open about his plan to attack with speed behind a monster forward pack that drives forward at will in their club outings.

There are questions about how the team will gel, how combinations will work and so on – I’m not really convinced it’s the issue it’s made out to be.

The only question I have is: can this squad defend stoutly enough to work out a 10-8 win if they have to?

For Origin, 95 per cent of the challenge is being able to drag your body through some serious punishment and still be able to make a play or stick your tackles in the 80th minute. There might be a defensive call to remember here or there, but I’m not sold on the Blues new-look squad being a weakness.

It seems ridiculous to look at a Queensland team which has won 11 of the last 12 series and wonder out loud if they can get things done, but that’s where we are this year.

Fittler putting the broom through the sheds raised some serious questions about how the Maroons goes about their business.

Did they need to think similarly and wipe the slate clean? With Thurston and co. leaving, now’s as good a time as any, right? In the end, Queensland went for their own mix of experience and youth. Whether they’ve got the mix right, time will tell.

I tipped the Blues for Game 1, but it wouldn’t surprise me one bit to see Queensland take the win. They know enough about the Origin caper to manage themselves through 80 minutes of tough work.

While the NSW squad is exciting, there’s a real chance they could blow up after an hour playing at an intensity they’ve never experienced. It’s not a theatre for the faint-hearted.

I’ve said it elsewhere on this website, but the 2018 Origin series is the most intriguing for a long time. All this change has brought with it a real sense of anticipation for a new chapter of the rivalry, something that’s been missing.

We’ll have a massive crowd witnessing an eagerly awaited clash watched by millions of people around the country, glued to every moment. On a Wednesday night. It’s something other sports dream of.

Let’s settle in for a ripper.

The Crowd Says:

2018-06-07T11:56:04+00:00

Johnno

Guest


Good points you make.. QLD people care more just like country people cared more about city v country.. But with the life in danger stuff, if an average person of the street or even a locals subbies footy player had to play an NRL game or state of origin they would be putting there lives in danger, there bodies would not be trained to cope with the massive hits.. Alan Langer/Tooves/Chris Sandow as examples are short and not the biggest guys but they are trained for the contact.. Chris Sandow is quite nuggety and tough as teak, Alan Langer though is a human miracle I still can't get how a guy of his height and not very athletic can handle NRL footy and origin etc, a walking miracle im lost for words with Alfie...

2018-06-06T08:43:59+00:00

The Barry

Roar Guru


? Go the Blues!!!

2018-06-06T08:17:40+00:00

Bunney

Roar Rookie


TB I mostly agree with you. Certainly your point that the line that NSW has stuck to the same players is a myth is more true than untrue. But this line is revealing: "...you can either argue that NSW stick to the same old players or rotated too often, you can’t really have it both ways." I'm not arguing an either / or proposition, only that some players were favoured over others, and that in a few of those cases, they were poor selections. But I'm not a selector, so does my argument carry much weight? Probably only with those that agree with me! :-) Yes, I think the Aussie selectors erred last year starting Woods at prop. I'm not saying he's never deserved selection. But I think right from Klemmer's first Origin, Klemmer has been more damaging. Fifita too. Yes, I think they erred selecting Dugan at centre. And Fergo a couple of years back on the wing. It's rare that a Queenslander's position in the Aussie team is wrong though - hahaha! I would argue that NSW has completely mis-used the selection criteria of "Made for Origin". Another overused stereotype, but one I think has some merit. For instance, Rhys Wesser was a fantastic club player, but he struggled at Origin level. Anyway, NSW overused tough players like Bird & Beau Scott because they were "Made for Origin", overlooking the silky skills of G.Stewart, the all-round skillset of Lewis, and the bat-shit craziness of Watmough. Watmough was the forward that made me clench my buttocks the most when he took a run. I was always scared he was going to bust the line. The same for Dugan and Fergo being selected out of position. Dugan is a fullback. Darius Boyd owned him in game II last year, with a broken hand, playing a position he hadn't played in 10 years. Dugan is an ordinary centre, but gets selected there because he's big and strong, runs hard and defends well. Problem is he cannot do the positional things well. I know you and I agree on Fergo's defensive deficiencies. The number of times a try is scored on his wing and he hasn't touched anyone is astounding. Conversely, they've not given the same "Made for Origin" adjudication to Maloney (initially), Carney and Reynolds when they clearly were far more suited to Origin than Pearce. Both ends of the spectrum on this argument - NSW chopped and changed too much / NSW stuck solid too much - are more wrong than right. The truth is somewhere in the middle and far more nuanced. It's all based on opinion anyway...so if yours differs to mine, you're probably wrong ;-) Go you Mighty Maroons!

2018-06-06T07:48:22+00:00

Jewboy

Guest


Could be right Matt.....appears to be a lot of smoke and mirrors and cloak and dagger stuff happening. Iol.

2018-06-06T07:45:35+00:00

Nat

Roar Guru


These big games do get the better of people and a lot of it is mental due to the history and hype. You mentioned the GF and he hype around that is very similar but that's with the same players they play with all year so that's slightly familiar and I'll use the example of Hayne 09 or JT13 last year. Both had crazy good years but come the big event - bupkis. Pearce was the best NSW #7 for many years and if he played as well for the Blues maybe those ones that just got away could be a different story. From a spectator POV, I'm a Bronco member and go to most games but there is nothing like the intensity from the crowd in Origin. Very few players get to experience that and fewer again can block it out to play the game they do each week for their club. Do they put their life on the line, of course not it's sport not war but it's reputations and the ability to lift against the very best each state has to offer.

2018-06-06T07:27:44+00:00

Matt H

Roar Guru


I've heard that Darius Boyd is now banished from state of origin because someone overheard him say that he thinks DCE is a top bloke.

2018-06-06T07:19:46+00:00

The Barry

Roar Guru


Mostly fair points mate. I’m not going to argue the toss about Pearce...it’s extremely frustrating he’s been given as many opportunities as he has. But he’s always been in the top 1 or 2 NSW halfbacks available. I can’t knock selectors for picking Greg Bird...I take your point about picking him at 6 but he rarely let NSW down. I really rated Beau Scott in his early days but I agree he probably got a few too many chances. Rotation of the halves including Reynolds, Maloney, Carney, Soward, Hodkinson etc...well you can either argue that NSW stick to the same old players or rotated too often, you can’t really have it both ways. NSW has always had a glut of back rowers and all of Watmough, Lewis, Bird, Scott, Stewart, Hoffman got chances. Did any of them ever stamp their authority and demand selection. Forget Merrin. Ferguson has played 7 games for NSW. He’s hardly been an automatic selection. Tupou has had four games. I’m pretty sure Dugan has twice been NSW player of the series...I might be wrong but definitely once. He’s also been a regular for Australia so while he hasn’t always been my pick I don’t think it’s a dud selection. Likewise if Woods has hoodwinked NSW selectors, he’s done the same to Australian selectors because he’s played more tests than Origins. Leilua has never been in form for long enough at the time origin has been picked, I still wouldn’t be picking Roberts. I’d be looking at Walker but I’m pretty sure he was injured in 2015, out of form and playing 5/8 in 2016 and someone else was preferred in 2017, injured again in 2018. He’s played twice, it’s hardlt selection crime of the century that he hasn’t played more. Through all that we’re still only talking about half a dozen players over a ten year period. It’s not really indicative of a same old, same old selection policy, I just think the ‘NSW has stuck to the same players’ sounds good when you say it quickly but is a myth when you look closely.

2018-06-06T06:34:34+00:00

Jewboy

Guest


Think Kevie has missed a great chance to 'blood' Ponga at the same time the Blues are blooding all their new players....could'nt think of a better time to give him a run. Also think Kevie should bury the hatchet or whatever else is bugging him with DCE.....agree with you Raguee, DCE would have been a better choice than an out of form Milford.....SOO is not a good place to to try and play him back into form.

2018-06-06T06:08:27+00:00

ja ja klazo

Guest


Just because Chris Sandow wouldn't be putting his life in danger doesn't mean that the game isn't extremely intense. And just because there are other teams who could compete with the Origin teams (not sure there are, but that's a different debate) doesn't mean that it isn't a great spectacle. Not sure why every year a few people crawl out from under a rock to talk down about Origin. Oh well, their loss. I love it!

2018-06-06T05:56:53+00:00

woodart

Guest


yes, its got very stale.

2018-06-06T05:45:39+00:00

Johnno

Guest


all those guys did have the will to win. Im not happy with freddy trashing past players part of losing campaigns, it's not there fault they had coaches with poor tactics, and also QLD had the greatest spines just about ever at 1/6/7/9..

2018-06-06T05:44:19+00:00

Johnno

Guest


That's like saying not every player is up to the Grand final or a world cup semi final or final.. You can't tell me england/nz/tonga would not fancy there chances against the 2018 blues and old sides.. It's more intense but no player in the modern game has had any player welfare concerns playing origin.. Chris Sandow would not be putting his life in danger by playing origin..

AUTHOR

2018-06-06T05:32:04+00:00

AJ Mithen

Expert


Well said, Bunny.

2018-06-06T05:19:54+00:00

Bunney

Roar Rookie


TB - I hear your point, but as a Qld'er I can point to a few 'tried and true' NSW players who got preferential selection over others I feared more. I think Gallen, Jennings, the Morris brothers and to a lesser extent, Farah, deserved their repeated selection. What I point out below occurred at various times in the period 2011 - 2017 Beau Scott and Greg Bird were regularly selected in the 2nd row over Glenn Stewart, Anthony Watmough, Luke Lewis and Trent Merrin. If those last 4 got picked, it was usually on the bench, behind Scott and Bird. Bird was most effective in SOO as a running 5/8th. With all of NSW halves issues, he prob should have played less in the 2nd row and more at 5/8. Even the venerable Boyd Cordner played his first 4 games behind Beau Scott. Who bends the line more? Speaking of halves, Pearce kept getting selected when Todd Carney and James Maloney were sitting on the sidelines. Maloney eventually got a 2nd crack and has been the standout NSW half since. In Carney's only series, he started with a shocker, but gradually built in confidence. After getting pipped by a Cronk field goal in the decider, no more Carney. Madness. I know Josh Reynolds was out of form in 2015, making his re-selection difficult, but if he wasn't a stinking cockroach, he'd be close to my fave player. Misses the occasional tackle, but he offers leadership and a point of difference. Qld would've selected him. He should have been there over Pearce also. Aaron Woods kept getting selected ahead of Klemmer and Fifita - madness Fergo got selected in front of Daniel Tupou Dugan's selection(s) at fullback was fine, but his later move to right centre in preference to Dylan Walker, BJ Leilua, and perhaps even James Roberts was an error. Interestingly Walker debuted off the bench in game 1 2016, and had a forgettable 9 minute stint. He played right centre in game II, replacing Josh Morris and was pretty good, but was dropped for the dead rubber, replaced by Dugan, who also played all of the 2017 series at right centre. Most of these guys got a chance to prove themselves, but not as many as the 'select' others I have mentioned, or as many as they should have been afforded.

2018-06-06T05:08:15+00:00

Nat

Roar Guru


He's not Billy but he's had a full season there with NQ and currently playing well in that role. I like the idea he can pop up anywhere. He is strong, fast and reliable.

2018-06-06T05:05:32+00:00

Aardvark62

Roar Rookie


It’s been such a long time since we’ve not had the likes of Gallen, Pearce, Woods, Jennings, Farah, Bird or Ferguson to rely on to make sure the Maroon Winning streak continued. Freddy and his Blue cohorts have finally selected an Origin worthy side full of skill, speed, talent & will to win. It is a side selected to win rather than stop the dominance of the Maroons. These players have come through the ‘younger’ origin games with success and the current forward pack brings back memories of the early 90’s when Bradley Clyde and Paul Harragon dominated. We won’t need the Paul Vautin coached miracle of 1995, but we’ll definately be the underdogs like in 2006. QUEENSLANDER !!!!!!!!

2018-06-06T04:35:03+00:00

Nat

Roar Guru


I'm with you MM. This game is physically tougher and faster and there have been plenty from both sides who haven't met the challenge. That's why they talk up the experience factor and need to get yourself involved early or it passes you by. You read Barry's posts above and he's outlines that even a hardened Blue should be wary about over-hyping rookies. Some will stand up and others won't get the chance. In 7hrs time we will know who that was.

2018-06-06T04:30:18+00:00

Pedro the Maroon

Guest


Playing Morgan out of position is the biggest worry. Having said that Lockyer was a fullback who became a great 5/8. Maybe the reverse can happen with Morgan. I remember last year when NSW picked 5 fullbacks - and we remember what happened.

2018-06-06T04:25:00+00:00

Nat

Roar Guru


It got me. Qld hit $3 and I'm all over it.

2018-06-06T04:21:41+00:00

Mango Jack

Roar Guru


You know when things get so bad they become an hilarious caricature of themselves? That's where the CH9 commentary team is now. If you take them at all seriously, you just want to throw stuff at the TV. I actually look forward to the tsunami of hyperbole and cliches, and wish they would bring back Gus's "stirring" pre-match monologue. The laughs I've got from their comedy show has salved the wounds of defeat over the past decade and more.

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