Geelong won’t finish this season on top of the ladder.
At this stage, with a two-game buffer, the money is on West Coast to be minor premiers. Therefore, if Geelong finishes the season fourth, they will play the Eagles at Optus stadium.
By then, the Eagles will have played 13 games at their new ground, compared to Geelong’s one. A huge advantage, even without the travel.
If the Cats finish second or third, and Richmond finishes either above or below them, the Tigers will likely get the luxury of a home final either way. This means home advantage is not an option for Geelong in the first week of the finals in this particular ladder configuration.
They would be the only team with this disadvantage – good luck telling an interstate team their home final will be played at the MCG against a team that has had 14 home games there.
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Should Geelong finish fifth, they would likely get a home game against the supposedly weakest team in the finals. This is, of course, after the pre-finals week off.
The Cats are not known for top performance after a bye so it is to their advantage to play at home against a weaker opponent.
Of course, they will still have to play away the following week, likely at either Optus stadium or the MCG. While this is still a disadvantage, barring injury, playing a weaker team in the first week will mean they are a little fresher facing the previous week’s loser in the top tier.
Should Geelong win, they then face a team that has played one game in three weeks. After that, it’s in the lap of the footy Gods.
The introduction of the bye has been part of the reason for the Bulldogs and Tigers’ success and can be exploited in the finals.
Samuel Ord
Roar Guru
I thought it was pretty obvious I wasn't being absolute brother. Yes, the Western Bulldogs won the premiership from seventh. They are also the only club to do that in the 24 years of the AFL's top eight system. Unless someone else joins in they're just a rare exception at this stage.
Raimond
Roar Guru
This would be a good situation for the Cats, if the Giants finished in eighth; not so much if it were Collingwood.
Cat
Roar Guru
Samuel Ord
Roar Guru
History says you can't win the flag without the double chance. It's easy to envision scenarios where Geelong win it all based on finishing fifth but just because you can visualise it doesn't mean it's going to happen. Instead of fifth you'd always be better losing in the first round and heading home for a second final back in Victoria as the Cats. That way you're still through to the second round of finals and the herd has been thinned by two at least.
Bangkokpussey
Roar Rookie
True Cat, but I was looking at the current ladder as is. It is possible every position will change, the Eagles will lose the remainder of their matches and Geelong may finish first, but highly unlikely ATM. Should however, Geelong finish Fifth and win the premiership, I shall rightly ascend the heights of football prophesy and will wax lyrical in reminding fellow roarers. Of course should I be wrong, I'll be as scarce as Harsh Truth Harry.
DingoGray
Roar Guru
Completely agree. Finished 5th is completely and utterly crazy as everyone has seen how even the competition. On any day 8th could easily beat them.
Cat
Roar Guru
Finishing 5th doesn't actually guarantee Geelong a 'home' final any more than finishing 1st would. If say the Cats finished 5th and Collingwood, Hawthorn or Essendon finished 8th Geelong would still end up playing an away 'home' game.
Bangkokpussey
Roar Rookie
Thanks for the input. I put it out there as an alternative view. Of course the Cats could be knocked out in the first week playing at home to the eighth team, but statistically more unlikely than playing the first team at their home ground and being beaten, where its sudden death from there anyway with the psychological disadvantage of a lost first up. Fortune does not favour the brave or the bravely stupid. (read charge of the light brigade) It favours the luckiest team. Lucky being the fresher side the least injured side the most settled side (see injuries) and the team that is mentally there and what "hoodoo" teams were avoided in the finals. All this I call "luck" you may call it something else and a look at former premierships is dotted with teams that on paper should not have won.Of course there is a certain amount of luck just having an MCG home advantage. (See Hawthorn and Richmond.) If it should be won by Richmond or possibly Melbourne that would be 5 out of 6 and i will be able to hear the righteous howling of non Victorian clubs here in Bangkok and to some degree rightly so.
jermayn
Guest
You wrote "good luck telling an interstate team their home final will be played at the MCG against a team that has had 14 home games there." Has happened a few times before the MCG allowed the AFL to 'bank' MCG finals. Happened to WCE twice against Carlton and Essendon and they lost both games. https://www.theage.com.au/articles/2002/06/03/1022982672033.html
Wayne
Roar Guru
So... Finish 5th means: Elimination Final Against: Melbourne (MCG), Collingwood (MCG), North Melbourne (Geelong), Port Adelaide (Geelong), GWS (Geelong). Then AWAY trip to Perth (if West Coast lose, or finish 2/3), and possibly away trip to Sydney. Or Finish 4th: Perth or MCG round 1, Potentially still MCG round 2, MCG in Round 3 of finals. Take 4th and get the double chance/week off route
The Brazilian
Roar Rookie
Careful what you wish for. Just as likely get knocked off in Week 1. Season over.
Chris
Guest
Fortune favours the brave. Wouldn't it be great to beat WCE in Perth? It's not impossible and Finals Footy is a different ball game to home and away fixtures. Home town pressure and high expectations can lead to finals jitters and we all know how much that can influence a game. Speculative nonsense at this premature stage of proceedings. Let the season see its natural course.
anon
Roar Pro
That makes no sense. You'd be better finishing 4th, giving a half-hearted effort in week one, then get a final in Melbourne week 2 against the team that finished 5th or 8th. Finishing 4th gives them by far the greatest chance of making a prelim.