Six rounds to go: Every club's run home

With just six rounds remaining in the home-and-away season, let’s look at the projections for each team on the run home.

For each club, we’ll share our ELO-Following Football rating along with their current record, their up-to-date expectations result (see The Expectation Game, Redux from two weeks ago), and the forecast for each of their six remaining games from the average of our ELO-FF ratings and from a betting agency (each one is batting over 2/3 correct for the season).

Understand that these predictions are extremely volatile. I made a preliminary version of this before Round 17 (R17), hoping to simply make slight adjustments from the results of this weekend’s games.

After Saturday’s games, I clung to that delusion while drastically changing numbers for GWS and Brisbane, but once Port lost on Sunday I was doomed to spend my World Cup final recalculating every upcoming game. Footy is such a wonderful game!

Any game with a margin of 16 points or more is assumed to be a win (as if such a guess can be justified in this league); any game closer than that is up for grabs.

We’ll compare the close win and loss predictions to come to a balanced guess at the most likely final record after Round 23 for each team.

Richmond (12-4. 135.0% – ELO-FF rating of 77.1)
Current total: 12 wins (14.19 expected wins) – 2.19 wins below expectations
Rounds 18-23: SK (at Eth) – W (by 34 pts); CW (at MCG) – W (20); GE (at MCG) – W (21); GC (at Metr) – W (59); ES (at MCG) – W (22); WB (at MCG) – W (52). 6W, 0L, no? games.

Predicted final record: 18-4, first place; minor premiers.

West Coast (12-4, 122.4% – rating of 64.2)
Current total: 12 wins (9.19 expected wins) – 2.81 wins above expectations
Rounds 18-23: WB (at Opt) – W (45 pts); NM (at Taz) – W? (3); FR (at Opt) – W (33); PA (at AO) – L? (10); ME (at Opt) – W? (10); BL (at Gab) – W? (7). 2W, 3W?, 1L?

Predicted final record: 17-5, second place. (Could range from 14-18 wins)

Sydney (11-5, 117.3% – rating of 66.2)
Current total: 11 wins (12.57 expected wins) – 1.57 wins below expectations
Rounds 18-23: GC (at SCG) – W (54 pts) ; ES (at Eth) – W? (3) ; CW (at SCG) – W? (12); ME (at MCG) – L? (8); GW (at Spot) – L? (5); HA (at SCG) – W (16). 2W, 2W?, 2L?.

The two possible losses for the Swans seem more likely to go Sydney’s way than the chance of the Magpies upsetting them in Round 20.

Predicted final record: 15-7, third place. (Could range from 13-17 wins.)

Collingwood (11-5, 117.6% – rating of 57.8)
Current total: 11 wins (9.71 expected wins) – 1.29 wins above expectations
Rounds 18-23: NM (at MCG) – W? (by 12 pts): RI (at MCG) – L (20) ; SY (at SCG) – L? (12); BL (at Eth) – W (19); PA (at MCG) – W? (8); FR (at Opt) – W (20). 2W, 2W?, 1L?, 1L.
Predicted final record: 15-7, fourth place. (Could range from 13-16 wins.)

Port Adelaide (11-5, 115.9% – rating of 56.8)
Current total: 11 wins (10.43 expected wins) – 0.57 wins above expectations
Rounds 18-23: GW (at AO) – W? (by 4 pts); WB (at Balla) – W (18); AD (at AO) – W? (3); WC (at AO) – W? (10); CW (at MCG) – L? (8); ES (at AO) – W? (14). 1W, 4W?, 1L?

Hard to believe with their new injuries they won’t lose to either GWS or Adelaide, so we’ll say 4-2.

Predicted final record: 15-7, probably fifth place. (Could range from 12-17 wins.)

(Photo by Mark Brake/Getty Images)

Melbourne (10-6, 130.2% – rating of 68.1)
Current total: 10 wins (12.50 expected wins) – 2.50 wins below expectations
Rounds 18-23: GE (at Geel) – L?(5 pts); AD (at AO) – W? (1); GC (at MCG) – W(61); SY (at MCG) – W?(8); WC (at Opt) – L? (10); GW (at MCG) – W? (11). 1W, 3W?, 2L?

Predicted final record: 14-8, sixth place on percentage over just about anyone. (Could range from 11-16 wins.)

Geelong (9-7, 119.5% – rating of 63.3)
Current total: nine wins (11.19 expected wins) – 2.19 wins below expectations
Rounds 18-23: ME (at Geel) – W? (5 pts); BL (at Geel) – W (26); RI (at MCG) – L (21); HA (at MCG) – W? (2); FR (at Geel) – W (46); GC (at Geel) – W (57). 3W, 2 close W?, 1L.

Predicted final record: 14-8, seventh place. (Could range from 12-14 wins.)

Hawthorn (9-7, 114.0% – rating of 54.9)
Current total: 9 wins (11.29 expected wins) – 2.29 wins below expectations
Rounds 18-23: CA (at Eth) – W (37 pts); FR (at Opt) – W? (13); ES (at MCG) – W? (2); GE (at MCG) – L? (2); SK (at Eth) – W (16); SY (at SCG) – L (16). 2W, 1W?, 1 close W?, 1 close L?, 1L.

Predicted final record: 13-9, eighth place. (Could range from 11-14 wins.)

GWS Giants (9-6-1, 111.1%, rating of 60.9)
Current total: 9½ wins (10.81 expected wins) – 1.31 wins below expectations
Rounds 18-23: PA (at AO) – L? (4 pts); SK (at Spot) – W (28); CA (at Eth) – W (41); AD (at Canb) – W? (11); SY (at Spot) – W? (5); ME (at MCG) – L? (11). 2W, 2 close W?, 2 bigger L?

They’re more likely to lose more of the W? than they win of the L? games. And that will cost them a shot at finals.

Predicted final record: 12-9-1, ninth place. (Could range from 11.5 to 15.5 wins.)

North Melbourne (9-7, 114.2% – rating of 51.9)
Current total: nine wins (6.94 expected wins) – 2.06 wins above expectations
Rounds 18-23: CW (at MCG) – L? (12) ; WC (at Taz) – L? (3); BL (at Gab) – L? (2); WB (at Eth) – W (25); AD (at AO) – L? (14); SK (at Eth) – W (17).

2W, 4L?. Seems likely that the team highest above expectations will steal one of those four close Ls, not that it’ll move them into the top eight.

Predicted final record: 12-10, 10th place. (Could range from 11-15 wins.)

Adelaide (8-8, 98.7% – rating of 49.8)
Current total: eight wins (10.19 expected wins) – 2.19 wins below expectations
Rounds 18-23: BL (at Gab) – W? (1 pt); ME (at AO) – L? (1) ; PA (at AO) – L? (3); GW (at Canb) –L? (11); NM (at AO) – W? (14); CA (at Eth) – W (35).

Five weeks of close games: 2 W? and 3L?, with a ‘sure’ W at the end.

Predicted final record: 11-11, 11th place. (Could range from 9-14 wins.)

(AAP Image/David Mariuz)

Essendon (8-8, 97.7% – rating of 55.5)
Current total: eight wins (6.06 expected wins) – 1.94 wins above expectations
Rounds 18-23: FR (at Eth) – W (34 pts) ; SY (at Eth) – L? (3); HA (at MCG) – L? (2); SK (at Eth) – W (20); RI (at MCG) – L (22); PA (at AO) – L? (14).

2W, 1L, 3 close L?. Very likely to steal one of those close games, not that it’ll get them into finals.

Predicted final record: 11-11, 12th place. (Could range from 10 to 13 wins.)

Fremantle (7-9, 83.6% – rating of 27.8)
Current total: seven wins (4.71 expected wins) – 2.29 wins above expectations
Rounds 18-23: ES (at Eth) – L (34 pts); HA (at Opt) – L? (13) ; WC (at Opt) – L (33); CA (at Opt) – W (25); GE (at Geel) – L (46); CW (at Opt) – L (20). 1W, 4L, 1L?

Predicted final record: 8-14, 13th place. (Could range from eight to nine wins.)

Brisbane (4-12, 91.7% – rating of 53.9)
Current total: four wins (2.42 expected wins) – 1.58 wins above expectations
Rounds 18-23: AD (at Gab) – L? (1 pts); GE (at Geel) – L (26); NM (at Gab) – W? (2); CW (at Eth) – L (19); GC (at Metr) – W (27); WC (at Gab) – L? (7). 1W, 1W?, 2L, 2 L?

If they’re tied with the Bulldogs, their percentage will get them past Footscray or anyone else on this side of the ladder.

Predicted final record: 6-16, 14th place. (Could range from five to eight wins.)

Western Bulldogs (5-11, 73.1% – rating of 28.4)
Current total: five wins (4.06 expected wins) – 0.94 wins above expectations
Rounds 18-23: WC (at Opt) – L (45 pts); PA (at Balla) – L (18); SK (at Eth) – L? (7); NM (at Eth) – L (23); CA (at Eth) – W (18); RI (at MCG) – L (51). 1W, 4L, 1L?.

Predicted final record: 6-16, 15th place. (Could range from six to seven wins.)

St Kilda (4-11-1, 77.8% – rating of 39.4)
Current total: 4.5 wins (4.06 expected wins) – 0.44 wins above expectations
Rounds 18-23: RI (at Eth) – L (34 pts) ; GW (at Spot) – L (28); WB (at Eth) – W? (7); ES (at Eth) – L (20); HA (at Eth) – L (16); NM (at Eth) – L (17). 1W?, 5L.

Predicted final record: 5-16-1, 16th place. (Could range from 4.5 to 5.5 wins)

Gold Coast (3-13, 62.2% – rating of 8.0)
Current total: three wins (1.44 expected wins) – 1.56 wins above expectations
Rounds 18-23: SY (at SCG) – L (54 pts) ; CA (at Metr) – W? (9); ME (at MCG) – L (61); RI (at Metr) – L (59); BL (at Metr) – L (27); GE (at Geel) – L (57). 1W?, 5L.

Predicted final record: 4-18, 17th place. (Could range from three to four wins.)

Carlton (1-15, 60.9%, rating of 12.3)
Current total: one win (2.13 expected wins) – 1.13 wins below expectations
Rounds 18-23: HA (at Eth) – L (37 pts); GC (at Metr) – L? (9); GW (at Eth) – L (41); FR (at Opt) – L (25); WB (at Eth) – L (18); AD (at Eth) – L (35). 5L and 1 L?.

Not optimistic about a second win anywhere on the run home for the Blues, let alone a third or fourth to escape last place.

Predicted final record: 1-21, wooden spoon, 18th place. (Could range from one to two wins.)

(Photo by Adam Trafford/AFL Media/Getty Images)

So, the ELO-FF themselves for this week’s games look like this:

Richmond over St Kilda by 26 points.
Collingwood over North Melbourne by 12.
Sydney over Gold Coast by 58.
Essendon over Fremantle by 39.
Brisbane over Adelaide by 10.
Geelong over Melbourne by one
Hawthorn over Carlton by 37.
West Coast over Western Bulldogs by 48.
Port Adelaide over GWS Giants by two (although a results-only system like ours doesn’t take injuries into account – I’d take the Giants by a goal or two).

One more topic we’ve looked at before: the ‘once-around’ schedule in the AFL. By simply ignoring any games where two opponents have played before (there will be five such games for each team in any one season), we can see what a 17-game, ‘once-around’ schedule looks like.

I also monitored a modified version with 18 games, where the one team you face twice is your ‘derby’ partner, such as the Crows and Power, Suns and Lions, Swans and Giants and Eagles and Dockers.

For Victorian clubs, I take the teams that face each other twice, and try to match the most likely ‘rivals’. This season, that’s Carlton and Collingwood, Essendon and Richmond, Geelong and Hawthorn, Melbourne and Saints and the Bulldogs and Kangaroos.

Of course, since these duplications occur at different times in each team’s schedule (the first repeat happened in Round 13), right now the clubs haven’t all faced the same number of ‘original’ opponents.

But here’s what those two standings look like after Round 17, including how many games remain for each team against new opponents (or their derby partner) –

Current ladder AFL 2018

(Photo by Michael Dodge/Getty Images)

Modified 18-game ladder

Last season, the results turned out somewhat differently than the Adelaide minor premier/Richmond championship scenario that we remember in the 22-round schedule world.

GWS had the best once-around record last year, at 12-3-2 (the equivalent of 13-4), with Geelong and Adelaide behind them at 11-6.

Richmond led the pack of teams at 10-7, which included West Coast, Sydney, Melbourne and Port Adelaide as finalists.

Ironically, using games actually played (either the match at the actual home ground or the second such game, if the first had already been used), the hypothetical finals series ended with number six seed Sydney defeating number four Richmond, using their Round 13 victory at the MCG, 80-71.

Even more ironically, the 2016 ‘once-around’ season placed the eventual ‘real’ champion Western Bulldogs into the top four, but it was Geelong who captured the title from the lower four slots.