Ten hot takes from AFL Round 18

Round 18 of this year’s AFL season provided some great matches to tell us that the game itself is in good health, but also some low moments to suggest the media surrounding it isn’t.

First, a little aside: I’m changing up the format of this column a little this week, with a longer look at one broad topic before hitting up a few others in a shorter, more punchy fashion. Let me know if you like it, or don’t, in the comments.

Back to the topic at hand.

Saturday in particular this weekend saw two games that, in a season that has been dominated off-the-field by talk of rule changes, suggest we may not particularly need them.

The first of these was Gold Coasts’ incredlible four-goal upset win over Sydney – it was the first time they’ve ever beaten the Swans, and broke an 11-game losing streak.

Gold Coast won despite starting the match as $17 outsiders, and were paying $151 for the win at quarter time when they were down by 29 points.

According to the papers it is the biggest upset in two decades of footy, as judged by the odds recorded at the opening bounce of each game.

In hindsight it’s easy to see a few indicators that suggested the upset could be on – Sydney’s depleted midfield, their poor record at the SCG this year (more on that later), and Stuart Dew obviously had some inside knowledge of his opponents.

However it’s fair to say the result went significantly against the expectations of the footy world, and disrupted the media narrative that has been built up around the Suns all year long.

This season we’ve talked endlessly about the impending departure of free agent Tom J Lynch, and many have publicly questioned whether or not Gold Coast should exist in the league at all.

In the past week alone Steven May has been made to answer questions about his future at the club and there’s been speculation that David Swallow, too, might consider walking away.

Meanwhile on the field, 22 men in red gold and blue gave us a remind that footy is a game where passion can accomplish anything.

(Photo by Mark Kolbe/Getty Images)

Sadly, many in the media just weren’t paying attention.

I woke up on Sunday morning and one of the first things spotted in my Facebook feed was yet more speculation about where Lynch will play next year.

But by far more facepalm-worthy was this howler of a tweet from AFL Media journo Mitch Cleary.

It’d just be gratuitous of me now to point out what an inane tweet this is when so many before me have already do so.

Just check out some of the 150+ responses (a positively brutal ratio compared to less than 40 likes) if you want to get a taste of that.

I don’t intend to have a swing at Cleary in particular here – I’d say at least 90 per cent of my own tweets are composed with less than two seconds of thought so I hardly have the right to throw stones.

But, I do feel it’s indicative of a football media that never fails to find and broadcast the negative, even when doing so requires such an eye-rollingly contrived effort as this.

This is the same media that has chattered constantly about the ‘state of the game’ throughout the year and is full of pundits pitching and bitching on the topic of potential rule changes.

Sure, I’ve seen fans have a crack at the quality of games this year, but I wouldn’t say they’ve done so any more or less often that I’ve seen in previous years.

Instead the AFL seems to be getting nervous about what is reportedly a noteable decline in TV ratings.

Would it be completely wrong of me to suggest that maybe the downturn in TV audiences could be related to some of this year’s bizzare fixturing decisions?

Maybe let’s try putting footy’s most engaging and watchable teams on at primetime (for example, not Carlton) before we rush into any more radical alterations, and see if that helps any.

The AFL combined every bright idea it has ever had to make footy more entertaining for this year’s ‘AFLX’ and despite fireworks and plenty of goals it was unwatchable dreck.

This week after some dates around the 2019 fixture were locked in, that media contingent obsessed with fixing things that are not broken turned their attention to rehashing the debate around a 17-5 fixture for the thousandth time.

I almost can’t complain, because hey, at least it gave us this glorious Twitter beef between the man the legend Ryan Buckland and Sam McClure.

Just some absolutely brutal champing on both sides of the conversation there.

Saturday night’s match at Kardinia which saw the Cats steal a win from Melbourne thanks to an after-the-siren goal from Zach Tuohy was arguably the game of the year so far.

If you can watch a match like that and come away from it feeling that the game is somehow in dire need of rule changes, well, I am very glad I don’t have to live in your head.

(Photo by Quinn Rooney/Getty Images)

Just about every potential rule change on the table this year is designed to increase the number of goals kicked in any give game.

Sure, that sounds nice from an aesthetic perspective, but the reality is that increasing the rate of scoring will only serve to widen the margins between good teams and bad ones.

These changes aren’t designed to make footy more watchable – they’re designed to create more post-goal ad breaks and wring more dollars out of TV coverage.

Of course, what they’d be more likely to do is make the game harder and harder to officiate, leading to more on-field gaffes from an umpiring staff that is still somehow only semi-professional, and therefore more fans switching off their TV sets in anger.

As for 17-5, well, I could count on one hand the number of times I’ve seen anyone who wasn’t an embedded football jouno legitimately support the idea with anything more than lukewarm interest.

The notion is that by leaving the last five fixtures of the season open so that teams play their closest competitors in the finish, you’d create more ‘meaningful’ games to close out the season.

Speaking as someone in sports media to everyone else in sports media: if you’re lucky enough to earn a living watching and working on this game and it’s not ‘meaningful’ enough for you, go work in some other industry.

Do we really want to fix the ‘state of the game’? If so, I saw the answer how in a clever little tweet from Richmond fan Sean during the week.

Tongue in cheek I’m sure, but it contains a nugget of truth. What do footy fans want more than anything else? We just want to believe that someday we will see our team lift the cup.

And to be entirely fair to the AFL, we are one of the most equalised sporting leagues on the planet.

All sixteen of the teams that made up the AFL in 1999 have played in a grand final since then, and 13 have won a premiership inside the last 25 seasons.

I’ve never seen the fans of a quality team refuse to go to a game because they feel the overall standard is poor, and I’ve never seen the fans of a battling side say they decided to go because they still love how open free-flowing play allows the opposition to slaughter them in a really watchable fashion.

Passion powers footy. Think of moments like these and tell me they don’t warm your heart a little:

The passion of the fans is the lifeblood that keeps the game going and it’s the most valuable resource you have, AFL. Invest hard in it and you’ll never go too far wrong.

(Photo by Mark Kolbe/Getty Images)

Port Adelaide have picked a poor time to Power down
In the last two years we’ve seen that it’s not the best team all year that wins the flag, but the one who builds momentum at the right time.

In 2016 the Bulldogs played like they had found whatever pill Nick Davis took at three-quarter time in 2005 and swallowed a whole bottle of them. Last year Richmond simply snowballed with every win until they were an unstoppable juggernaut.

Port Adelaide are not the best team in the AFL. They’re an above average side made up of above average players with an above average coach. But in no respect are they the best.

They need momentum if they want to challenge for the flag this year, but after the last two weeks they are dead in the water. Time is running out to flick the switch back on. Hurry hurry.

As for their opponents, GWS, well, they seem to be going in exact opposite direction right now. I would not be surprised if in five weeks time we’re talking about them as the Tigers’ strongest challenger for the throne going into finals.

That said…

If anyone can trump the Tigers at the MCG…
Collingwood can. I’ve been thinking this for a couple of weeks now. It’s not based on the quality of the side so much as it is their attitude.

We’ve seen plenty of teams try to take on the Tigers at the ‘G this year and really most of them just seem to lose their nerve when the time comes.

The Pies however are just big and arrogant enough to walk into next week’s match – or perhaps a knockout final – with the belief that they really belong on top.

Plus they can bring with them a crowd big and loud enough to go head-to-head with the yellow and black.

I’ll still be tipping Richmond. Suspect they’re just too strong. But Collingwood have the best chance of anyone of turning the season on its head.

Alex Witherden is the Rising Star’s dark horse, but should be the favourite
Saturday night was yet another strong performance in what has been a remarkable second year in the competition by Brisbane’s Alex Witherden.

From his first game at AFL level Witherden has played like a seasoned veteran, and underlined that against the Crows with 31 touches, 12 marks and seven rebound 50s.

The Rising Star Award this year continues to be talked about primarily as a battle between Jaidyn Stephenson and Tom Doedee (and yes, I do know Ben Ronke exists), but surely Witherden should be firmly in the mix.

It depends on what you want from a Rising Star winner. Is it the player who has accomplished the most so far, or the one who seems most likely to touch the sun over the next ten years?

If the former I’d say you can’t possibly go past the prolific consistency of Witherden.

If the latter I can see making an argument for Stephenson, who for mine is – alongside Cam Rayner – surely the potential superstar of this year’s class.

(Photo by Chris Hyde/Getty Images)

Melbourne keep letting us ask the question of mental weakness
Personally, I reckon the notion that whether a team wins or loses close games comes down to mental strength is a bit of a myth.

Footy is game that has an enormous amount of chance in it and when it comes down to a matter of one goal here or there, I reckon more often that not it is just a matter of bad luck.

Richmond for example last year copped three consecutive weeks when they lost by less than a goal. Were they a mentally weak side? Nope.

But whether it’s a genuinely insightful comment or not, Melbourne just keep giving us reason to level that accusation at them.

Surely the Demons must be getting sick of people relating every bad loss back to the players’ revolt earlier this year that led to the club cancelling their pre-season camp.

But the solution is simple: just win and shut us all up.

What will become of Brendon Goddard?
I remember last year asking the question after the famous pretzel incident at Spotless Stadium whether or not Brendon Goddard was a good influence on the Bombers, and noting with interest that he was out of contract at the end of the year.

While Essendon said goodbye to a number of experienced players at the end of 2017, they opted to give Goddard another go.

The 33-year-old’s stats have decreased across the board this year and on Saturday he recorded a season-high seven clangers from his 23 disposals.

The Bombers have some promising young players, such as Aaron Francis, chomping at the bit for senior opportunities in the VFL.

Far be it from me to tell a bloke of the stature of Brendon Goddard whether or not his time is up, but certainly Essendon have a big decision to make over the next five weeks.

Sydney need to fix their SCG slump
It’s one of 2018’s more underrated mysteries – how on earth are the Sydney Swans 4-5 at their home ground, and 7-1 everywhere else?

At home Sydney have lost to Port Adelaide, Adelaide, North Melbourne, Geelong and now the Gold Coast Suns, but the only team that has gotten the better of them when travelling is the league-leading Richmond Tigers.

It’s the nature of the league that interstate sides must cop the disadvantage of needing to travel further than Victorian teams, but theoretically this should be balanced out by the value of having a strong fortress at home.

The Swans are just barely in the top four right now – by a margin of 1.1 per cent – but if they want to stay there they’ll need to start banking more wins at home.

(Photo by Tony Feder/AFL Media/Getty Images)

North’s season is over
Sad to say it, but I don’t see my ‘Roos playing finals from here. While it’s possible on the maths, North just aren’t playing like they’re one of the best eight teams in the league.

Their first half of the year was built on stifling defense and reliable effort, but we’ve seen little of either since the bye.

While it’s disappointing from the perspective of a year that started so well, all things considered this season has delivered much more joy than fans like myself expected at the start of the year.

Thanks to the club and the players for putting plenty of smiles on my face in 2018. Here’s hoping for a few more before all is said and done.

Clubs should pay for Jarrad McVeigh
It looks like for the second year in a row we have a bit of a storm brewing around the future of Sydney’s 2012 premiership co-captain, Jarrad McVeigh.

John Longmire said earlier in the season that it was the plan for McVeigh to retire at the end of the year, but McVeigh this week said he wants to play on.

Both Gold Coast and Essendon are reportedly open to offering McVeigh the chance to extend his career for another year if the Swans won’t give him another deal.

Carlton and St Kilda should be writing blank cheques. McVeigh can first provide onfield leadership and then later coaching expertise picked up from many years spent in one of the league’s most effective setups.

The Blues and the Saints have a desperate need for both of those things, and tons of room in the salary cap. So why not?

Fight Like Maddie a fine Friday fixture
Look, we’ve all had a few cracks at the fixture this year – for example, me earlier in this article – but for mine putting the St Kilda vs Richmond match in support of Maddie Riewoldt’s Vision on Friday night was a winner.

Was it a great game of footy? No, but some things are more important than that, and no doubt the primetime exposure was a big part of why they were able to raise $1.4 million for the cause.

Look, I’m not going to tell you what to do with your hard-earned, but if you’re in a charitable kind of mood, here’s the link.