The state of the game truthers were left red-faced once more as the footy threw us another series of curve balls in this tense, competitive season.
Normally by this stage of the year, we have some semblance of order across the AFL ladder. The non-finalists are mostly free to tank to their heart’s content; the finalists to take their foot off the pedal. History says the Round 19 ladder will tell us almost everything we need to know ahead of the first weekend in September. Not so in 2018.
Bar Richmond’s place in the top two – almost a certainty now, given the Tigers’ draw and that they’re two games clear on top with the best percentage by a mile – every spot in the top eight is up for grabs. The same 12 teams we’ve been talking about for the past two months are all that’s left in it: Fremantle could win out and it still won’t make it into the eight because it’s about 600 points of margin behind Geelong on percentage.
What a glorious place to be. Not every game is going to matter as we sort out the finals seedings, but a bucketload of them will. Take Round 20, for example: Richmond versus Geelong, Hawthorn versus Essendon, Adelaide versus Port Adelaide and Sydney versus Collingwood are all enormous, season-shaping games.
No one inside the eight bar Richmond and West Coast is safe, and even the Eagles could quickly find themselves grappling for a top-four spot should they trip up again as they did against North Melbourne.
West Coast has a sneaky-tough run home: Fremantle (in what looms as their final hurrah for season 2018), Port Adelaide away, Melbourne at home and a trip to the Gabba to face Brisbane. North in Tasmania has never been a fun journey for the Eagles – they’re 1-2, and the games have generally been low scoring scraps – but this weekend’s outing was surely the worst yet. It put them in a precarious position, with Round 22’s game against the Dees now taking on greater meaning.
Collingwood played the Tigers more or less to a draw through three quarters on Saturday afternoon. But like all who’ve come before them, the Pies couldn’t stick with the champions in the last. That might have been driven by two game-ending injuries to Jeremy Howe and Matt Scharenberg but one assumes it’s because that’s just what Richmond do in 2018.
The signs for Collingwood were uniformly positive: they threw down in the second and third quarters with some bursts of aggressive play, and often looked the better team. There is no shame in losing to Richmond at the MCG.
(Photo by Quinn Rooney/Getty Images)
Port Adelaide did what they needed to do against the Western Bulldogs, no more and no less. And well might they have because their run home is mighty tough: the Crows, Eagles, Pies and Dons await.
Doing just enough has been the story of Port Adelaide’s season in many ways – they are a mostly uninspiring team that can grift and grind their way to victory. As we discussed a couple of weeks back, Port might be the league’s Tiger killer, because of that strength around the ball and midfield defence. Right now they would get the first look at them come September.
The Giants are back. That hellish May is all but forgotten now; GWS have recovered and looms as this season’s September wildcard team. A smallball approach, if not as pure as the textbook with Harry Himmelberg and Adam Tomlinson (at times) up forward with Rory Lobb, has seen the club address its most glaring weakness: forward half transition and conversion. St Kilda made the Giants work but the game always looked in hand for the home side.
They have a chance to leap into the top four before a trifecta of ladder-shaping encounters: Adelaide, Sydney and Melbourne – the latter which could blow the whole thing up, and which is sure to be a candidate for the league’s first-ever Monday night Round 23 game.
Melbourne really wanted the W that was on offer against the Crows, and they got it. Their coach Simon Goodwin – the anti-Chris Scott when it comes to coaches box behaviour – was so pumped at the siren he gave his data guy a concussion. The Dees were on the verge of another season of shouldas, couldas and wouldas but appear to have righted things, balancing their attack on the ball with some more structural integrity defensively.
They, too, have a spicy, ladder-shaping run home. You’re sensing a pattern here I hope.
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Hawthorn once again finds themselves in the eight, ahead of schedule but not without merit. They made a young Fremantle side look a level below standard, toying with them but perhaps not putting them to the sword as strongly as they could’ve.
Hawthorn’s selected side has seven guys aged 29 or older, and just four guys aged 21 or younger. They’re going for it. But they can’t afford another outing like the one against Brisbane a fortnight ago. Be afraid.
Finally to the Cats, who clawed back into the eight on the back of a strong second half against the Lions. Brisbane were riding high and were perhaps due a dud half of football; it didn’t look like it was coming for the first hour on Saturday.
The Lions have become a tricky assignment over the past two months, and Geelong did well to navigate their aggressive ways. Tom Hawkins devoured Harris Andrews on the latter’s return, and has wedged his way into the All Australian conversation that is just about to get going for real.
We could draw the line there and be relatively happy with this as our eight best teams. Something is up at Sydney and it’s not clear what. My theory: it’s the youngsters doing what youngsters tend to do (and which they did not do for most of last season).
North Melbourne has a cushy draw, and with a weak percentage compared to those above them will need to win two of their next three to be in the conversation for a Round 23 Bradbury. They can do it.
Essendon are streaking their way back into said conversation, but given they’re a game back, they have to win out to be any chance. Adelaide need to win out, and for some seriously quirky stuff to happen above them, to make it from here. They’re this week’s mathematical chance team.
It’s all up for grabs, and it starts on Friday night. Let’s hope sanity prevails and we talk about the footy this week.
Oh, and by the way, it was a goal.
Bangkokpussey
Roar Rookie
I would say that if it is thrown in the direction of the foot it should be legal. Throwing it virtually sideways around the post isn't. My opinion only.
Gordon P Smith
Roar Guru
It was a goal. No question. We constantly hear the phrase "he threw it on his boot" and praise the player involved for finding a way to get a kick through the sticks. This is no different, just more spectacular. (But it's fun to argue about because we get to relive the goal of the year over and over while doing so.)
Ray Hammond
Roar Rookie
Thanks, I agree.
Ryan Buckland
Expert
It's a tricky one, because you could go with two interpretations: the definition of a "throw" versus what constitutes a legal (and therefore an illegal) disposal. The rules say a throw is what a throw is - propelling the ball forward with a throwing type motion - and adds a definition of using a scooping or swinging motion to propel the ball forward. However you have to also have taken possession of the ball for this to come into play. Under that criteria Higgins "threw' the ball. The rules also say that a kick is a legal form of disposal, and the rules don't specify how the ball is to be dropped to your foot in order for a kick to take place. So under this interpretation Higgins was executing a kick, and the ball was "thrown" as part of his ball drop. I fall on the side of the latter, because I think it was a relatively unique situation that will almost never arise. No one is ever going to throw the ball up and kick it, because it introduces all sorts of variance versus a regular low ball drop. It's also worth noting when a player is tackled that the ball sometimes goes "up" without being handballed as it did in Higgins' case but also touches a player's foot, and that is considered a legal disposal.
JamesH
Roar Guru
A Hawks fan claiming Essendon are a 'darling AFL club'? How far removed from reality can you get?!? Free kick Hawthorn.
Daz
Roar Pro
This. 1. Higgins was not tackled. 2. He did not attempt to handball. 3. The ball did not hit the post. 4. No other player touched the ball. 5. He did not throw the ball aloft and regather with his hands. 6. He did not take the ball out of bounds. Therefore, Higgins was in possesion of the ball, and from the point his hands stopped touching the ball, nothing else touched the ball, and it remained in play until his foot made contact with the ball and he executed a legal dispoal, being a kick. Perfectly legal and a correct decision. If a player in the open attempts to execute a kick and misses, and the ball hits the ground is that a throw too?
Don Freo
Roar Rookie
You'll be off the mark with the Freo/Collingwood tip, Pete. We'll have a number of stars back.
Kick to kick
Guest
I can only agree in part about the Swans game style. At times this year it has been almost cavalierly open. The North game, lauded by many, saw a lot of hard running and moving the ball through the corridor. The first quarter of the Gold Coast game was the same. Then the wheels fell off and the Swans seemed to have lost the ability to regain control by slowing the game down. The Essendon game was a horrible over-reaction. Slow ball movement wide down the boundary. Still as a Swans fan I’m faintly optimistic about the Pies match on Saturday. The club has a tradition of defying doomsayers when the going is tough and Collingwood has still only beaten one side in the current top 8.
Perry Bridge
Guest
Thankfully there's no silly 17-5 formula fixture with the ladder split from 1-6, 7-12 and 13-18. We have a brilliant run in to finals now.
Chris
Guest
Will he try it again on Friday night? I sincerely hope so! The umpires decision will be interesting. Cat, I hope your lot do the business!
Chris
Guest
Imagine Higgins trying that in September and getting penalised. How sweet it would be! Especially in the last five minutes of an Elimination Final with the Tigers behind their opposition! I am just waiting to have the last laugh.....P.S. Didn't they go into the 1972 Grand Final as raging hot favourites against Carlton?
Aransan
Roar Rookie
Was that when Roughead tried out Melksham and suddenly realised that he had bitten off more than he could chew?
Ray Hammond
Roar Rookie
Ryan, great article and many fascinating scenarios. Makes the last 4 rounds worth watching! I have an off-topic question regarding the amazing and controversial goal of the week / year! What exactly is the rule that would say that putting the ball in the air then kicking it is a throw? Doesn't this scenario regularly happen, almost weekly, when a player is tackled to the ground and one hand is tied up. The player throws the ball up with his free hand and kicks the ball - play on! If Higgin's goal was deemed a throw, wouldn't all those other "throws" to get the ball up to be kicked, be throws as well. Many thanks.
Peter the Scribe
Roar Guru
Most Roarers agree it is best to focus on the AFL era Realist and to be fair most of Richmond, Collingwood, Essendon and Carlton's flags are from the VFL era. Fact is from the time the competition became the AFL in 1990 we now have 28 years of historical AFL data and the clubs below have 22 of them. Hawthorn: 5 flags Geelong, WCE, Brisbane: 3 flags Sydney, Adelaide, Collingwood, Essendon: 2 flags I wouldn't crow just yet you have a way to go to catch the Hawks.
Peter the Scribe
Roar Guru
Don't you love ":I've been told...." sentences. Who? By your neighbour's cousin's postman?
Peter the Scribe
Roar Guru
Sorry JamesH you are right I missed it. So that leaves: Port V Ess Melb V GWS as games that can go either way, the rest are a foregone conclusion unless Sydney can resurrect their season.
Peter the Scribe
Roar Guru
How's that "done deal" going again Realist? http://www.afl.com.au/news/2018-07-30/magpies-step-up-bid-for-tom-lynchs-signature
Peter the Scribe
Roar Guru
Realist, it is not the Pies fault that teams in the top eight we do beat fall out of the eight as a result. Sydney were fourth a week ago and even if we beat them this week it won't count in your misguided measuring system. Thing is it's all about making finals and preferably making top 4 with the double chance. If the Pies can do that and get Treloar, De Goey, Aish and Goldsack back, maybe even Ben Reid, we can do some serious damage in September. meanwhile, arrogant Tiger fans like yourself think that after 37 years with one flag and the worst AFL record in the competition barring GWS and The Suns, you have much to crow about on the way to your threepeat. Realist, just imagine the longest winning streak at the MCG ends on the worst day of all? Grand final day? Oh dear.
Realist
Guest
I've been told it was a desperate attempt at a counteroffer. Understandable but futile. Should see Big Tom in front of the cameras soon enough with Dimma and Cotch for the big announcement! Oh, and by the way 2 premierships in 60 years in nothing crow about PtS....although 100,000 members is!
Realist
Guest
I've been told it was a desperate attempt at a counteroffer. Understandable but futile. Should see Big Tom in front of the cameras soon enough with Dimma and Cotch for the big announcement! Oh, and by the way 2 premierships in 60 years in nothing crow about PtS....although 100,000 members is!