Richmond vs Geelong: Friday night forecast

The all-conquering Tigers welcome another challenger at the MCG tonight, where they last week extended their impressive winning streak at their home ground to 18 games.

It was a familiar plot: A challenger took the fight to the premiers for three quarters before being overwhelmed and overrun in the final term.

Much has been made of the dominance of Brodie Grundy last week, and while he was probably the best player on the ground – and Scott Pendlebury next best with an equal career-best 13 clearances – it’s debatable how much impact he had on game.

As has been mentioned previously in these previews, the Tigers don’t prioritise clearances. Damien Hardwick’s men are ranked dead last for clearance differential and 13th for contested possession differential. Just twice this season (Round 6 versus Collingwood and Round 16 versus Adelaide) have Richmond won both counts in the same game.

As yet, no one – at least in Melbourne – has been able to turn their stoppage dominance into a real advantage against the Tigers, who are more than happy to shut down the outside of the contest and take away options down the field.

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The last time these sides met, the Cats won both the clearance count (44-34) and the inside-50 count (61-52), but despite being within a point at three-quarter time, they went down by three goals – sound familiar?

The good news for Geelong is that they’re probably in better form right now, and have a red-hot Tom Hawkins up front coming off back-to-back seven-goal games – the first player to do so since Drew Petrie in 2012.

The bad news for Geelong is the’ve lost impressive second-year defender Tom Stewart, who would be a deserving All-Australian selection if the side was picked right now and has provided the Cats with excellent intercept play and drive out of defence.

To cover Stewart, Chris Scott pushed Joel Selwood back against the Lions and suggested during the week that the skipper could find himself in that role regularly not just while Stewart is out, but potentially through the late stages of his career.

Joel Selwood of the Cats (Photo by Michael Willson/AFL Media/Getty Images)

But for the Cats to snap the Tigers’ MCG hot streak, I’d rather see them shift another of their gun midfielders to the other end of the ground.

For all of Collingwood’s stoppage dominance last week, it was their versatile forward line that gave Richmond the most trouble. By stretching and spreading the Tigers’ vaunted defence, the Pies were able to make Alex Rance and Co. accountable and negate their ability to zone off.

Geelong don’t have the same forward depth and versatility, but if they were to throw Patrick Dangerfield into the forward mix with Hawkins and Dan Menzel, they would be much more dangerous in attack while maintaining a midfield mix capable of getting first hands on the footy.

It’s all good in theory, of course. In reality, the Tigers are a ruthless and disciplined side with complete faith in each other and their system and they always seem to find a way to get the game on their terms.

They remain the No.1 scoring team from turnovers this season at just shy of 11 goals a game – Geelong are eighth at 52.7 points. Their combination of forward pressure and defensive structure and aggression constantly strangles the life out of opponents.

Rance’s 186 intercept possessions this season at 10.3 a game mean he is on track to break both his own home-and-away record for intercept possessions (206, set last season) and Scott Thompson’s 2012 record average of 9.85, which the Kangaroo put up in 20 matches.

Richmond’s depthis the envy of the league – not one Tiger had more than 22 disposals against the Pies and Jacob Townsend was their low ball-winner with 11 touches – and their opponents rarely finish with 22 fit players on the ground. Whether that toll is due to the edge the Tigers play with, the physical demands required when taking them on or pure coincidence, it’s certainly makes a tough task even tougher.

Jack Higgins of the Tigers (AAP Image/Julian Smith)

The Cats certainly can win this game. Richmond are going to lose at the MCG eventually and some of their players will still be feeling the effects of last week’s high-intensity clash with Collingwood.

Geelong are clinging to a spot in the eight and with only four matches left, every one of them is important to them if they’re to see September action, so they shouldn’t lack motivation.

These Tigers though, they just keep winning. Richmond by 20 points.

That’s my Friday night forecast. What’s yours?