Is Paul McGregor in danger?

Mary McGregor has been overseen as in coach in 3 of his 4 seasons, early season success then on each occasion a significant drop off, despite having a team of talented players and in most cases having a winnable draw for the run toward the finals. The pattern is clear, with the only success being to sneak into the 8 in his first full season. Some players are clearly going backwards in their development and senior players not able to perform at their peak. Their is plenty of evidence of his coaching deficiencies and they primarily are in my opinion that he is too conservative in his team selections, lacks imagination in solving form or injury/mid season related slumps for Individual players as well as the team as a whole. While the players must take part of the responsibility, their has been enough personel changes that indicate something is lacking. Most concerning this year is his insistance on keeping the same team and no planning for potential injury of form slumps of individual players which can happen even in great teams. My overall assessment is that McGregor ticks all the normal pre-season planning and training boxes for recruiting, fitness and bonding the team. Where he has very little of any substance is to be bold enough to challenge his team to continue to improve across the season. He seems unable to see that in order to achieve great results you must be prepared to take calculated risks by encouraging attacking structures which add to the strike power of the team. The result is complacency which seeps in while other teams catch up then often it's too late to make the improvements needed. The best examples are the continual lack of an impact utility back and picking forwards who are their to plug a hole which is fine, provided other interchange players are picked to make a big impact. Selections of Jeremy Lattimore and Kurt Mann are prime examples of the 'holding the fort' mentality. The inability to see that despite his progression that McInnes offers far to little threat in attack and in fact across the team their are only 2 genuine ball players who can guide the team and provide individual spark which are the halves. I also believe Ben Hunt can lead us to a premiership but he needs more assistance and not just from Gareth Widdop. Their are many other good players, but they are all running players who do not take any of the pressure off Hunt and Widdop. Past teams had the likes of Ben Hornby at fullback and Dean Young in the back row providing 4 points of attack in different parts of the field. Yes we did win a comp with a heavily pre-programmed attacking structure, but the holding down in the ruck, the spread of talent now more concentrated in fewer teams and general speed of the game has changed, but McGregor is still playing an adapted version of that attritional style of attack and we are getting the same results each time. 2011, flopped in second half of season, 2015, 2017 and now 2018 again. Genuine impact of the bench means bold moves like McInnes being benched for 15-20 mins at back end of game, putting Hunt into hooker and giving Jai Field a licence to thrill and shake things up or other similar player. Not doing this puts too much pressure on our defence and even the best defensive teams will have their 'Dam wall burst' when not enough questions are asked across e park. Ben Humt, I was sceptical of him coming to the club, but I am now comcerned he is under too much pressure to do everything in attack and will become burnt out by seasons end which may result in mistakes on the field. Luciano Lulia's selection I like and more game time around running at tiered players with the likes of Dufty and Field running off him would fix things. The skills are their, the spirit in this years team is their, but will the coach and his safety first approach lead us to even make the finals, Coz right now I am seeing a talented team disinterested and clearly stuck between wanting to show how much than can improve and a coach who is safety first who is holding them back. As I life long Dragons fan I hope I am wrong but at the moment I am not sure if we will win more than one game of remaining fixtures.

That's sarcasm right?

Irony here is if Mary had lost more at the start and won out to finish 5th on a high note and then got bundled out everyone would, absolutely mistakenly, be lauding the momentum he's built and what a great coach he is. Though there's no reliable evidence to suggest this carries over from year to year and it certainly just seems like recency bias. If Mary gets fired for finishing 5th with this “great squad” isn’t that an admission that the NRL fan base is utterly clueless about the NRL? Because Mary has dramatically outperformed the expectations of the average fan this season. With the average fan not rating his squad or him very highly at all having them around 9th to 12th in most MP/primer/top 4 markets. (in my view a dramatic underestimation it as their Pythagorean suggested they were much better). But then when they started well the fans completely reframed those expectations to an irrationally exuberant level. And now we’re holding Mary to account for that irrational exuberance. In firing Mary would be saying he played no role in taking a “bottom 8” prospect to potentially top 4 but rather he’s holding back an obvious minor premiership team (so obvious that most thought they’d miss the finals…) and should go. In my view they are at or around my expectations for this year , which is a pretty good spot to have your "pass" expectations in a competitive league. That said – I’m not a dragons fan so I hope they fire him under the misguided view he played no positive part in reframing the expectations.

I heard he will miss remaining regular season games but will be fit for finals, I was fearing it was season ending.

He has handled recruitment and the development for a number of years so all results or lack of results falls at his feet. No he hasn't. He stepped away from this at the start of the year to focus purely on coaching.

would Mcgregor be in danger if they were on 22 points and coming 9th? that is where most people had them coming this year?

not really, just from you. how the dogs travelling?

I think he maybe in trouble if he doesn’t make some changes and turn the slump around. De Belin needs a rest, his playing busted atm and needs a week or two off to recover. Nightingale and Aitken need to be dropped to try and fix our awful right side defence, bring in Lomax and hopefully big Nene is over his injury as we need his big runs out of our end. Widdop and Hunt need to play more direct and build pressure and be patient - miracle play isn’t needed every time. The forwards need to run and hit harder and put the opposition on their back. To many times we are letting the opposition keep their feet with 3 defenders - grow a pair and start hurting them again in defence. Our attitude to play for each other has disappeared in the last couple of months, I just hope we get in back and quick!!!

Where’s Max Danger? There’s so much anti Dragons bias here...

I don't think Nightingale is the defensive answer either at centre or winger. There was a game earlier on, I think it was against Melbourne, when Nightingale's opposite scored three tries. On each occasion Nightingale came infield and left a clear passage to the try line. He's a very experienced player yes but father time could be tapping him on the shoulder.

Very worried. Parra are starting to play well. I think you will struggle to beat Parra this weekend, in fact I cannot see you doing it. I'd make Parra the beat of the weekend!.

Gee Paul love to have you on the board of directors. Mary keeps his job by winning 2 games against bottom feeders and gets to coach again next year. That's not exactly setting the benchmark for success very high if they just scrape in to finals and then get booted.

Leave him alone and let him get on with it.

Nothing short of a grand final spot this year should save him for next year.If they don't make the grand final he should be gone straight away & Not to be replaced by Young or Hornby. Someone from outside the boys club.Even Humphrey Bear could do better.

As a devout Dragon fan I have had my heart up and down many times this season watching the Dragons show what they are capable of! Despite quite a number of so called fans that have called for McGregor's head even as early as the start of the year, I am still happy with McGregor despite my own concerns of what needs to be done to turn the team back on track. For a start our team team is going sideways again and they are relying too much on their forwards in their attack. I also would consider replacing our centre Lafai who is not doing well at the moment with Nightingale. He may do well in the centres because of his experience as a winger and fullback. I feel his knowledge of the game will add pressure as he is very competitive for the ball and often gets us out of trouble in defence. Whatever, it is the coach who decides what needs to be done so I hope he sits back and has another look where he can improve. Incidentally, I would have McGregor again next year as this year has been very hard competitively for all coaches.

What an amazing chance Robinson has this year to win a title. The Cows are gone, the Storm are battling the back to back curse, the Sharks are showing their age, Saints are playing like a bottom 4 team , the Pennies are all over the shop and they just need to deal with 3 big Poms and the Cookie Monster to claim the title. Next year they could be like the Cows or get a few injuries. If the Bunnies get the better of them again in the finals with a rookie coach and no major signings in years then Robbo is right in the spot light regardless of his contract I reckon. How many coaches have an uncle like Nick who load up the Xmas stocking with gifts like Teddy and Cronky? He already knows what's in the stocking this year, Angus and the Pommie winger. SBW was a favorite gift from years back. They're starting to remind me of a team from decades back playing out of the Northern Beaches.

Definitely shouldn't get his bond back after the damage he's done.

I'd say he's in strife if the slide continues. There's a clear pattern emerging, which highlights a large issue that the coach isn't addressing well. 2015 - running 1st at end of May. Won 4 of last 13 to finish 8th and were eliminated in first week of finals 2016 - dour. Could barely score and finished 11th 2017 - started on fire, winning 6 of first 7. Then won 6 of last 17 to miss the finals 2018 - started on fire, winning first 6, and 12 of first 15. First at end of June. Lost 4 of next 5... Many good teams will have a mid-season blip, so its not open/shut. But if they don't win at least 3 of next 4 and make it through to at least the second week of finals, it should be curtains for Mary

Mary definitely under scrutiny. He starts well, has his team firing but has a history of running out of ideas at the back end - won't change his annual 'dream team' regardless of form and can't enthuse players late in the comp. I wonder if the training regime is too front loaded and the players are stale and fatigued in the end. It can't just be Origin, the other teams with Origin players seem to be stepping up. Also, since Origin there has been a huge motivational carrot for Aitken and McInnes to step up and prove people wrong by outplaying the people who beat them to their spots. I would have thought Mary would be planing that seed big time, yet Cook is MOM against storm, leading his team to victory and Aitken gets smashed by Mitchell. It's also a concern that Lafai and Aitken (internationals rep centres) have been inconsistent as Mary was a leading centre in his time and should be able to get the best out of these guys. While he isn't directly involved in recruitment, Ian Millward has done a great job of assembling a fantastic roster which is being handled poorly. Every year Mary gets a better Roster 'the best of his time' and the fade is the same. Dragons need a GF spot 2018 and a consistent top 4 next year to stop the perception and for Mary to coach beyond 2019 New management at the Dragons may take a dim view of the misuse of the talent provided.

Yep - he has publicly stated that its his team now, and the buck stops with him