The footy season is reaching its peak and the cricket season is just underway. The fortunate few amongst us can ignore the cricket, for the time being, as our teams are still in the race for grand final glory.
Soon enough, however, summer sport will take centre stage. Australian cricket fans tend to have a certain smugness at this time of year. Glenn McGrath normally forecasts clean sweeps and we look forward to sitting back and watching Steve Smith take apart bowling attacks from various parts of the world.
Not this cricket season. For the first cricket season in a while, cricket fans will have an uneasy feeling in their stomach, perhaps even dread. Focus will clearly be on the Test series versus India, who will be arriving on our shores after an entertaining, yet ultimately disappointing, series against England.
Yet, this uneasy feeling is unfounded. I think Australia will win the series against India, and here’s why.
The Test series will be played in Adelaide, Perth, Melbourne and Sydney. Adelaide will be a day Test, much to the Indian administrators’ delight, and the Western Australian Test will be at the new Perth Stadium.
Perth Stadium is still an unknown, yet Melbourne and Sydney pitches yielded plenty of runs last season, as did day sessions in Adelaide. The pressure will firmly be on the bowling attacks to take 20 wickets and Australia’s attack, if full strength, can do the job. The hosts’ batting line-up may be better than most believe.
Let’s check out the bowling first.
In Mitchell Starc, Pat Cummins and Josh Hazelwood, Australia probably have the best pace attack in the world in Australian conditions.
(AP Photo/Eranga Jayawardena)
Indian batting orders are traditionally more susceptible to pace, so the burden will be on these three to take the majority of wickets. Nathan Lyon had a terrific Ashes series last summer, but I wouldn’t tip him to be quite so successful against India.
Virat Kohli will, of course, be key. He scored four centuries on his last tour of Australia and a repeat would likely tilt the series in India’s favour. However, his most recent form against Australia is poor, with all three pacemen taking his wicket in India.
There is a question mark on this if any of the pace trio get injured. We may find out more on the upcoming UAE tour but Australia would love to have a fit Billy Stanlake as a back-up. He will need to get through a few Shield games to give selectors enough confidence to pick him if required.
Tim Paine will keep the gloves and the captaincy. He will need to score runs however as Alex Carey can’t be far away from Test selection.
It is the batting order where most of the dread originates from. Losing Steve Smith and David Warner is massive and the selectors had shown a lot of faith in Cameron Bancroft despite a mixed start to his career. These are all big gaps to fill.
I think the batting order in Adelaide will look something like this: Matt Renshaw, Marnus Labuschagne, Travis Head, Usman Khawaja, Shaun Marsh, Mitchell Marsh, Tim Paine, Pat Cummins, Mitchell Starc, Josh Hazelwood, Nathan Lyon.
Labuschange, Head and Khawaja are coming off a good India A tour. A broken finger ended Renshaw’s county season but prior to that he was in tremendous form. The Marsh brothers, as unlikely as it would have sounded 12 months ago, are certainties.
(AAP Image/Glenn Hunt)
Can this order do the job? Much will depend on the Queensland opening pair getting good starts. If they can, Australia have enough stroke players further down the order to post scores.
Labuschagne was the second highest run-scorer in Shield cricket last year and has earnt his spot. Renshaw was arguably unlucky to be dropped in the first place and will be determined to make amends. I’ve got a feeling we are about to be surprised.
The other factor in this is that whoever is picked in this top six will know that, early 2019, three batsmen will be coming back into the team with an eye on the Ashes tour. The competition for spots will be intense and runs over this summer in the Test arena will be crucial.
So, while Australia will be down some key players this summer, there is sufficient class in that line-up to beat India on home soil. Who knows, the opportunity to blood some new Test batsmen may have some dividends for the future of Australian cricket.
Adam Bagnall
Roar Guru
Maxwell isn't a Test standard player and never will be. He hits a few boundaries, gets too excited and plays a dumb shot, hence his less than spectacular 26 average at that level. a 20/20 slogger and nothing more
Don Freo
Roar Rookie
Kohli's opposition is likely to be determined too. Stale mate?
John Erichsen
Roar Guru
Kohli failed miserably on his previous English tour, but seemed to exercise those demons pretty effectively. I expect he will be out to do more of the same. Your point that he alone may not be enough has some validity but that validity lessens at the same rate as pitch moisture and grass. Rahane and Vijay enjoyed our flat tracks last tour, so it will be interesting to watch. At the end of the day, I think this is easily India's best chance to win a test series on Aussie soil since they frightened us in '77/'78. My hope is that the Indian side plays well, but some of our hopefuls grasp this opportunity and stake serious test claims, given that Bob Simpson is beyond saving us this time.
JimmyB
Guest
India won’t be able to repeat the selectorial mistakes that they made in England if they want to win in Australia, there was a good number of strange selection decisions made with a couple that were nothing short of bizarre. India will need to have a clear plan and stick to it.
JimmyB
Guest
Paul, I reckon that Australia will lose in the UAE but that it will have little baring on the India series which I expect them to win. Winning away from home is the 4 minute mile for this generation of cricketers.
JimmyB
Guest
Why are we no longer able to insert paragraphs into our posts? It does make things much harder to read. Just a thought tech bods.
JimmyB
Guest
Pahul, i’d be a bit careful in dismissing Australia’s chances if I was you. Australia in Australia is as tough an assignment as there is in Test cricket, regardless of Smith et al not being there. I haven’t seen the bookies odds for the series but I’d be very surprised if Australia weren’t odds on favourites. Having said that, I can envisage a very competitive series, similar to the recent one in England (perhaps with a similar score line). India’s bowling attack is very impressive and should do well over here although they won’t get the same assistance from the pitches, the overhead conditions or more importantly the ball, so how they adapt will be crucial. Australia do have a fragile looking batting order but then India’s has been a bit up and down too so we’ll see. I’m looking forward to the series very much and just hope that it’s close, played in a good spirit (which may be wishful thinking given the history of these two teams) and that there’s a good balance between bat and ball. FYI conventional swing has nothing to do with the pitch.
Harvey Wilson
Roar Rookie
It might go either way, but the improvements in India's pace attack in England (despite losing) is very promising for them.
jameswm
Roar Guru
Kohli scoring big might not be enough. It wasn't in England. Kohli also failed abysmally the last time we played India.
El Loco
Roar Rookie
There's no cause for alarm because Australia is at worst competent at home, and at times find ways to dominate seemingly solid opposition. I don't see our batting racking up massive scores, but the powerful bowling attack compensates. The challenge this summer is that Kohli wants to win in Australia, and he'll be ultra determined in what looks like a golden opportunity. If he gets the right support they're a big chance.
Broken-hearted Toy
Guest
India has a very useful seam/pace attack now. I wouldn't be so sure our batsmen will handle them that easily. Having a player like Smith in the team should do wonders for the other players' confidence and he won't be there. The Australian team will need A LOT of runs from Renshaw and Khawaja.
John Erichsen
Roar Guru
if this summer's test pitches are like the MCG of recent years, Kohli will score 1000 runs this upcoming series. He averaged 47.67 in South Africa (27% more than the next best) and 59.30 in England (over 40% better than the next best), on bowler friendly pitches. On batting pitches, against the kookaburra, he could do anything. He only needs a little support from his top six.
John Erichsen
Roar Guru
Indian batsmen traditionally have struggled with the pace and bounce in Australian pitches. over the last few years, pace and bounce has been largely replaced by flat and road. Bumrah is a handy addition to the Indian pace attack but it will depend what pitches we turn out for the test matches. No pink ball test match, no Gabba test, and an unWACA Perth test match looks to be giving India as much hope as humanly possible. If they don't beat us, without Smith and Warner, this summer … They never will. However, as you see so much form for this series in the results from the last tour, it seems poignant to remind you that we wont have Steve Smith's 769 runs, Warner's 427 runs or even Chris Rogers 417 runs this time around. Should I remind you that, against our "world's best pace attack", Kohli scored 692 runs at an average of 86.50, while Vijay averaged 60 and Rahane 57. Kohli average nearly 60 on very bowler friendly pitches against the Duke ball in England, so he will be licking his lips to get back to our shores. I hope all those Aussie players capable of stepping up and scoring a lot of runs at home, do so. They may have to significantly do better than their first class records suggest they will. Averaging 35 won't cut it.
JamesH
Roar Guru
Labuchagne only bats at 3 when Khawaja isn't playing - and Khawaja will be playing for Australia! He's definitely going to bat lower, given that he batted at 6 on the A tour even when there was a lack of top order batsmen. Head bats 4 for the Redbacks (Ferguson bats at 3). He batted at 3 in India so yeah, it's possible Langer will put him there in the UAE but again, there was a lack of top order batsmen in India. Shaun Marsh only batted at 5 for Australia because that's where the vacancy was. He opens for WA so IMO he seems the most likely to step up to the top 3 in the absence of Warner, Bancroft and Burns.
KenoathCarnt
Roar Rookie
I would have NCN in the current one day team even if all the quicks are available.
David Holden
Roar Guru
Head batted 3 for Australia against India A but agree Khawaja could take that spot. I like Shaun Marsh at 5 so wouldn't want to change that. Labuchagne does bat at 3 for Queensland which probably puts him the frame to open. Burns would be unlucky to miss out, I agree, but I just don't see him making the side.
JamesH
Roar Guru
Why would Labuchagne and Head bat at 2 at 3 respectively? They don't even bat that high in ther Shield sides. Surely Khawaja and S Marsh would take those spots, with Head 4 and Labuschagne/Finch/Maxwell at 5? Or even bring Burns in to open. And even though Labuchagne had a decent Shield season he didn't crack an average of 40. If that's 'earning your spot' then we're setting the bar a bit low.
Pope Paul VII
Roar Rookie
The big question is how will the batting go without Smith and Warner? I think someone will make way for Maxwell. The pressure will be more psychological than physical. Don't get yourself out. Easier said than done. The conditions though will favour batting even more than usual. With the drought, this is likely going to be one hot, dry summer so the fast bowlers are going to be doing it hard no matter who they play for. Traditionally visiting fast bowlers bowl short of a length because there is not much happening when pitched up. That will suit the Aussie bats. Australia's speedsters will have the edge at home. Spin may play a part with the dryness but with near perfect pitches it might depend on who's lucky enough to bat last. Again, touring spinners generally get short shrift. I think Australia can win but it's all about the bats keeping their heads.
Paul
Roar Guru
Basically the same Indian attack came to Australia 4 years ago and managed to bowl the Australian side out twice in 4 Tests. On both those occasions, Australia scored in excess of 500. I realize this team will be an unknown quantity from a batting perspective, but that doesn't mean there aren't Australian players capable of stepping up and scoring a lot of runs at home. I'm also very comfortable with India starting as favourites after all, they are supposedly the best Test team in the world. The also started as favourites in England and look how that panned out.
jameswm
Roar Guru
I also think we're likely to win, but I don't think the batting order will look anything like that. Our bowlers are more likely to take 20 wickets. That's comfortably the best bowling lineup in the world in Aussie conditions. Batting wise, we won't have Smith to do his thing, but we should get enough runs from Renners, Khawaja and the Marshes, and even Paine and some of the bowlers. Expect Cummins to average 30-40 with the bat, and Starc around 30.