This is the ninth of nineteen articles looking at the meta-results for both team and players, as collected from ELO-Following Football’s wide range of sources.
Presenting, the GWS Giants.
Back in 2017
The team finished fourth with a home-and-away record of 14-6-2 and a percentage of 115. (They were the first team to play to two consecutive draws since Carlton in 1921. Interestingly, the Blues also played the first two games of 1911 to draws, creating a record of 0-0-2 at the time.)
They lost in the prelim final to eventual premiers Richmond at the MCG in front of 94000 Tiger fans and 258 Giant fans.
The expectations for the team
Were high. Finally, the potential will be realised! The consensus opinion (before the onslaught of injuries hit) was that the Giants were the Greater of the Sydney teams, expected to be in second place at year’s end.
Cam Rose of The Roar had them pegged in seventh, as did Michael Whiting of afl.com.au, and nobody considered GWS missing finals as a reasonable possibility, although after falling to 4-5-1 in Round 10, statistically, it was more likely than not that they would.
Coming into the season, the players who were considered to be in the top 50 in the league by the AFLPA and/or The Roar included Josh Kelly (top ten), Toby Greene, Dylan Shiel, and Callan Ward (all top 25), Jeremy Cameron, and Tom Scully.
(Photo by Matt King/Getty Images)
In 2018, the team finished
With more injuries than ever bseventh-placenth place finish and a record of 13-8-1 (114 per cent). They made it past their crumbling city-rivals, the Swans, before Collingwood demolished them en route to the decider.
It’s been four years since they missed the finals. In each of the last three seasons, they’ve been the “X-factor” that could do damage in September – and they’ve shown signs of it every year.
It’s been…
Six seasons since their last wooden spoon. They went 3-41 over their first two seasons, choosing to start from scratch with draft picks and young studs that would mature together. It did both things that they expected – developed a group of stars at the same time, and brought them large contracts to keep the potential together, which did severe damage to their salary cap.
According to our patented “ELO-Following Football” rating system…
The Giants started the season at 60.9, a tenth of a point behind the Cats in the battle for fifth (The top three were all in the 70s, 50 being average). A huge Round 1 victory over an overrated Bulldogs team propelled them towards a peak of 70.7 after Round 4, but they fell all the way to 42.5 after Round 10.
With Josh Kelly back, they started a gradual climb that reached a seasonal peak of 71.3 three weeks ago, but the latest set of injuries dropped them back into the bottom of that 60-65 pack, just above the Swans.
The other rating systems
Unlike Following Football, most of the other rating systems saw the Giants peak in Round 2 or 3. Of course, we all have graphs shaped like a valley, the riverbed being around Round 10 or so, with a canyon lip here at the end.
Across the spectrum game-by-game expectations
Final record: 13-8-1
Betting Line expectations: 14-8.
ELO-Following Football forecasts: 15-7.
AFL.com.au game predictions: 17-5.
The Roar predictions: 15-7 overall; individual predictors saw them 82-39 overall.
”Pick-A-Winner” predictions: 16.5 – 5.5
The Age forecasters: 16-6 overall; the twelve writers saw them at 176-88.
BetEasy “CrowdBet” percentages: 15-7; the percentages fell 1483% for, 717% against.
(My own game-by-game predictions pegged them at 16 wins. 6 losses.)
What was their best game of the season?
4th place: The two-point win over the defending champion Tigers in Round 17, 79-77, perhaps the high point of their 9-1 stretch from June through mid-August.
3rd place: A 151-46 rout of wooden spoon recipient Carlton in Round 20, notable for the fact that injuries had depleted the Giants so badly, they played most of the fourth quarter with one less man on the field than the Blues (and for the last six minutes or so, two less men), and still outscored their woeful opponent 7.3 to 1.0 for the period.
2nd place: The elimination final victory over cross-town rival Sydney, dominating the favoured Swans 79-30. Any finals win is a great win; any win over the big brother is a great win; and any time you hold a finals-quality team to four goals and win by 49 is a great win. Combine the three and knock the Swans out for the year, and that’s got to be the best game of the season.
(Photo by Ryan Pierse/Getty Images)
1st place: Unless you agree with my assessment the only reason they ever got to that point of the season instead of staying home in September is the return of Josh Kelly in Round 11 and the first-ever victory over the Adelaide Crows in Adelaide, 97-81.
They were 4-5-1 going into the game, coming off six and seven-goal losses to the Kangaroos and Bombers, and their promising season was about to go down in flames.
After a Darcy Fogerty goal early in Q4 put the Crows ahead, they could have folded. Instead, two Jeremy Cameron goals and one by Zac Langdon pushed the visitors to a stunning 16-point victory, sparking the nine-in-ten winning streak and resurrecting the hope of not only making finals but making noise in finals, as they were originally expected to do.
Which game would they most like to erase from memory?
Round 7 was probably the most embarrassing loss of the year, a four-goal performance at Geelong which they lost 93-32, and if anything, it wasn’t even that competitive.
The Giant’s first score came 22 minutes in, by which point Leon Cameron’s team was already 18 points down and never seemed to challenge. They then lost the aforementioned games to the Kangaroos and Bombers; it’s not hard to imagine that they would’ve packed it in for the winter had they not upset Adelaide in round 10.
If we were to speak of the club in as many words as they had wins in 2018:
“Just wish that those injury issues could have been solved during those ‘focus groups’!”
Meta-Player Of The Year Results
1. Lachie Whitfield – 323 points (14th overall)
Best and Fairest finish: First in the hearts of his countrymen as well. This was Whitfield’s first Kevin Sheedy medal. Received 16 Brownlow votes, the most on the Giants’ roster.
Last year’s meta-PotY finish: 11th. (143rd overall)
Notable games: One dominant game (in Round 6), two prominent games (Round 1 and 21), and five notable games (Round 12, plus Round 17-20 consecutively – and a prominent in Round 21 to cap it off.)
All-Australian half-back; ELO-FF Top 22 and First Team Defenceman.
(Note: Also first in meta-points during finals.)
(AAP Image/David Moir)
2. Stephen Coniglio – 306 points (20th overall)
Best and Fairest finish: Fourth. Coniglio received 11 Brownlow votes, third most on the club.
Last year’s meta-PotY finish: 12th place. (148th overall).
Notable games: Three dominant games (Round 1, 2, and 20), and two prominent games (Round 18 and R23).
ELO-FF Top 22.
3. Callan Ward – 306 points (20th overall)
Best and Fairest finish: Second. Also second on the team in Brownlow votes received, with 13.
Last year’s meta-PotY finish: Fifth (56th overall). Fourth in 2016.
Notable games: Three dominant (Round 12, 15 and 17), one prominent (Round 20), and three notable (Round 4, 10 and 21).
All-Australian 40-man roster.
4. Josh Kelly – 243 points (43rd overall)
Best and Fairest finish: Ninth. Considering he missed seven games during the season, his results are remarkable. He also received ten Brownlow votes, fourth on the team.
Last year’s meta-PotY finish: First, fifth overall in the league. He was ninth in 2016.
Notable games: Two dominant games, in Round 14 and 20, and two notable games (Rounds 18 and 19).
5. Jeremy Cameron – 137 points (84th overall)
Best and Fairest finish: Equal tenth.
Last year’s meta-PotY finish: Fourth (47th overall).
Notable games: One dominant game (Round 12), and one prominent game (Round 1).
6. Dylan Shiel – 134 points (87th overall)
Best and Fairest finish: Sixth.
Last year’s meta-PotY finish: Second (38th overall); third (28th overall) in 2016.
Notable games: None.
7. Harrison Himmelberg – 90 points (131st overall)
Best and Fairest finish: not in top ten.
Last year’s meta-PotY finish: 27th.
Notable games: Two notable games in Round 19 and 21
8. Phil Davis – 89 points (139th overall)
Best and Fairest finish: Third.
Last year’s meta-PotY finish: Eighth (109th overall).
Notable games: One prominent game, in Round 5.
9. Heath Shaw – 86 points (145th overall)
Best and Fairest finish: Equal tenth.
Last year’s meta-PotY finish: 15th.
Notable games: None.
10. Brett Delidio – 79 points (165th overall)
Best and Fairest finish: not in top ten
Last year’s meta-PotY finish: 33rd.
Notable games: One dominant game, in Round 5.
[GWS had six top 100 players and 11 top 200 players in the 2018 ELO-FF meta-rankings. Averages would be 5 and a half and 11, respectively.]
Honorable Mentions
Toby Greene – 17th place (47 points). Fourth on the club in points during finals. One prominent game in Round 1, before the injuries.
Nick Haynes – 11th place (75 points). Fifth place in Best and Fairest finish.
Jake Hopper – 12th place (60 points). Equal tenth place in Best and Fairest finish voting.
Tim Taranto – 14th place (57 points). Eighth place in Best and Fairest finish voting.
Adam Tomlinson – 18th place (46 points) Seventh place and best clubman in Best and Fairest finish voting.
Zac Williams – Despite not playing a single minute of the home-and-away season, places sixth in points during finals!
Player movement during the trade period
In: Relief for the salary cap crunch they’ve suffered under for a couple of years now.
Out: Rory Lobb, Tom Scully, Will Setterfield, and Dylan Shiel.
Current list of draft picks: #9, 11, and 19 (technically, three first rounders), 25, 52, and 89.
(Photo by Adam Trafford/AFL Media/Getty Images)
2019 Roster Highlights
Defence: Aiden Corr, Phil Davis, Nick Haynes, Lachie Keeffe, Adam Kennedy, Heath Shaw, Sam Taylor, Adam Tomlinson, Zac Williams.
Midfielders: Stephen Coniglio, Matt DeBoer, Jeremy Finlayson, Jacob Hopper, Josh Kelly, Callan Ward, Lachie Whitfield.
In the Ruck: Dawson Simpson.
Forwards: Aiden Bonar, Jeremy Cameron, Brett Delidio, Toby Greene, Harry Himmelberg, Zac Langdon, Daniel Lloyd, Jon Patton, Tim Taranto.
Forecast for 2019
It depends on injuries again. If there’s something fundamental about the way they train, perhaps, that keeps bringing on these wide-ranging injuries, then they’ll keep occurring. And now, they’ve lost the depth they’ve had to keep marching on through them.
On the other hand, if they can get a full season from Kelly, from Greene, from Coniglio, from Cameron, from Davis, from Shaw, from Whitfield, from Ward, even Patton and Finlayson, they could finally break through that preliminary and semi-final ceiling and at least challenge for the title this year.
As an optimist, that’s the way I’d like to bet.
As a scientist at heart, I see a team whose roster has been decimated over the last two years and a repeating pattern of injuries, so we have them dropping out of finals altogether and finishing in 11th place, in a closely-knit bunch with North Melbourne, Geelong, and Fremantle out of the money.
EaglesMan
Roar Rookie
Pete i Agree, there only so many players you can replace. Scully and Shiel leaving puts enormous pressure on kelly and Ward. Their forward line is too reliant on Greene and Cameron. Patton is too injury prone. just shows all the talent does not guarantee you a flag. yes 2016 was their chance
Professor
Guest
When's general patton coming back?
Aransan
Roar Rookie
Will those high draft picks cause further salary cap problems in the future, just as they did in the past? Would GWS gave done better to trade a couple of the picks for players just short of top class on less money. No club can keep a team of elite players under the salary cap and have depth as well.
Alicesprings
Guest
They will continue to be mighty hard to be beat at home - surely they will make the eight. They have a good crop of youngsters coming up through the ranks that will cover their losses with ease.
User
Roar Rookie
I wouldn't say badly Pete, 2016 was an awesome preliminary though they lost, 2017 was poor vs rich but losing a preliminary again against the eventual premiers is not the poor imo, last year the could of snatched it but a 10pt loss in semi to the entual runners up is also not bad. When you compare them to say Geelong who have been in a similar window gws are miles ahead and when comparing the pair for 2019 gws are so far ahead they're lonely. I picked Geelong as you're bullish about the and they where both losing preliminary sides in 16/17 and both dropped in 18.
User
Roar Rookie
I see them as a similar side to the bullies in 2016 regarding age only the Giants have nearly the best midfield still in the league. If they can get a good return from green, Cameron and himmelberg I see them top 4, probably last chance saloon before they have to go very young again but I reckon their top 25 players are good enough to make it a long way in next year's finals.
Justif01
Guest
GWS still have an excellent top 22 to 24 playing group but outside of that it thins out badly. If they can keep their list on the park then they still have enough weaponry to be a top 4 side. The catch is this time if injuries do strike then they are in deep trouble. The loss of Shiel will bite the most but they have enough ammo in the midfield to cover him. Scully and Setterfield missed basically all of this year and whilst not ideal them leaving isn't the end of the world. The real worry is the key forward and ruck area, Lobb never really tore games apart but his departure leaves them vulnerable in these areas. Much depends on how Patton recovers from his acl injury and what ruck cover they can acquire. Again if they have injuries like the last two seasons then things could get nasty for them.
Paul D
Roar Guru
Do you?
Peter the Scribe
Roar Guru
Hmmm, let's see what injury run they get Matti. They have bowed out badly in finals three years in a row. To me, they are lacking something, not sure what it is, perhaps killer instinct? Heart? Not convinced.
Don Freo
Roar Rookie
Why? Do you know Freo's midfield?
User
Roar Rookie
Nah Pete they are still set to be finalist for next few years, look at the draft hand they've got and spread of ages, very much primed for a premiership tilt
User
Roar Rookie
They are in an unbelievable position, even when players leave they command excellent trade compensation, interesting to see we happens when they hit RFA time. As a sandgroper I see Coniglio staying at gws and possibly be captain shortly. Injuries and concussions at key moments in last three seasons have killed them in the finals imo.
IAP
Guest
I agree, 2016 was their best chance. It's just too bad for them that they went down in one of the greatest Preliminary finals of all time.
IAP
Guest
Too much of an age gap for mine. Teams don't win premierships with half a team of kids, no matter how much potential they have. Their senior players are also retiring or dropping off a cliff; Deledio and Shaw have had it, De Boer is average, Griffen has retired. They're going to be heavily reliant on Davis and Ward to lead the charge. Then there's their prime-aged players, who are all looking to jump ship; that doesn't bode well for team culture and coherence. They will probably sneak into the finals again this year, but that will be it for them.
IAP
Guest
Roster? What country do you think we're in? "Contested bull" must be the most over-used phrase in footy at the moment. Taranto is 83 kegs - he's no bull, just an average sized midfielder.
IAP
Guest
Moves like a dinosaur. Too immobile for modern footy.
Mister Football
Roar Guru
Bonar looked pretty good the couple of times I saw him play, very nice size about him, quite athletic. Reminded me a lot of Haynes, the way he moved. Also, it borders on ridiculous that a player like Finlayson is perpetually on the fringe of their best 22.
Peter the Scribe
Roar Guru
I reckon you're on the money Gordon. I think their window is closing and they may well miss the eight in 2019. The list of players they have lost reads as an All Australian A side. Will Hoskin-Elliott, Adam Treloar, Taylor Adams, Dylan Shiel, Devon Smith, Tom Scully, Tom Boyd, Rory Lobb…..Josh Kelly next? 2016 was the flag they should have won.
User
Roar Rookie
The prediction of ppl saying gws has missed the boat are ridiculous imo Yes Scully and Shiel are gone but with Whitfield and Taranto likely to slot into the vacant midfield spots they look just as dangerous, Bonar will come in and slot into the hff and if green, Kelly etc get a full season then looking good. U18 all Australian ruck is part of their academy and plenty of ruck talent in the state leagues to draft and create depth. Taking everything into account I'm calling a wce v gws grand final and Coniglio for Charlie.
Hamish
Roar Rookie
Strange 2019 roster. De Boer almost exclusively half forward. Taranto is a mid, who will get more opportunity to be the contested bull he is with Shiel gone. Finlayson won't be best 22 and is a defender not mid. It's laughable that you rate this line - Midfielders: Stephen Coniglio, Josh Kelly, Callan Ward, Lachie Whitfield, Jacob Hopper alongside Freo.