In my younger days, I worked in a pub that was filled with the sweet sound of pokies. By the sweet sound, I mean sweet to the publican, as each machine was worth its weight in gold every year.
Too often, regulars would come for a beer and stay for a punt, unable to resist the familiar tune and flashing lights.
Often those same regulars would come in the next day, having spent their rent, with a photo of themselves to be put behind the bar to alert all staff that they were not to be let on the premises.
And all too often, it wouldn’t take long for them to be back for another spin.
Addiction of this kind can be quite confronting, leading to people getting caught in the debt cycle of so much lost that a gambler’s fallacy forms in their psyche, resulting in a belief that their only way out is by steadfastly doing exactly the same thing that got them into all their troubles. Every dollar in is a dollar closer to that big win – a way out.
A typical example of a gambler’s fallacy is when a coin is flipped a number of times and lands ‘heads up’ every time. It is then believed that the next flip is more likely to result in the coin landing ‘tails up’. Every spin of the roulette wheel is one closer to your number coming up. Every spin, flashing light and jingle of the pokie is one closer to a big win.
Rugby Australia’s current balance sheet is some pretty ugly reading, which has left them exposed to the risks of gambling.
They gambled with the rugby community’s support by culling the Force and backing the Rebels; gambled with a lack of investment in grassroots on a Wallabies first or top-down approach, and they gambled on Michael Cheika and certain players when Ewen McKenzie stood down.
They gambled on the coach’s unorthodox methods, giving him time and autonomy – and now they are in deep.
Cheika himself has been gambling, with strange and bewildering tactics, coaching appointments and squad selections. And now he and Rugby Australia are asking us to ‘buy in’ to their gambler’s fallacy.
That every loss is one match closer to it all clicking. That the payoff is coming. One more roll of the wheel and our numbers will come up.
The sad truth is that this has been going on for longer than Cheika has been coach. Addicts lash out and blame others around them – as we have blamed coach after successive coach.
And, as someone invested in Australian rugby, I am an addict too – prone to a gambler’s fallacy.
So do we roll the dice on another coach? Maybe this watershed moment should be about something more.
Marlin
Roar Rookie
Do you reckon they monitor these sites? Regardless, I agree...
Marlin
Guest
Their plan isn't a real good one so nobody's buying. I love M Hooper but a 5 year deal and outrageous money? Seriously. Imagine if that money was invested into junior clubs and primary schools. I watched the AFL basically wipe out our local club - we couldn't even get an under 15 side together without merging (with the enemy). They have lost this punter I'm afraid
Harty
Roar Rookie
We've all had a gutful of Cheika's delusion and blind optimism. Somehow it's all just going to click and we'll be great because of you know, scar tissue... unbelievable.
BeastieBoy
Roar Rookie
We all want the Rugby Australia Board to resign. We can't vote them out..so they don't really represent us. They represent values we don't share.. Please go..
Monsta
Roar Rookie
This is the answer. Better use of the old boys club not them running the game. Prime example Anthony Herbert, bought in to review the Reds and ends up at GM of Rugby. Conflict of interest? You bet. Sadly I think it's beyond us. No one can last the old boys knives to put the house in order from top to bottom.
Cole
Roar Rookie
Hahaha. Yes, exactly.
HiKa
Roar Rookie
Were you worried about people misconstruing "fallacy" in the same way as referring to Rugby Australia's malady might have us thinking it is duck-like?
Cole
Roar Rookie
Yeah I am not a fan of this whole its all towards the RWC, nothing else matters attitude. I'd prefer the way that it was before where just focus on winning every test match we play, and using some good judgement we blood young players slowly but consistently no matter what part of the World Cup cycle we are in. 4 years is a long time to wait and put up with poor results, if we win the cup he is a genius but if we don't then we have surrendered a lot along the way, and for what?
Glider
Guest
It reminds me of story about the guy at work known as "the big deal guy". What are his numbers like this month? They are crap but be patient he's working on the big deals ( WRC again - but what happened to the current opps AB's, other tests, short term revenue) What are his numbers like next month - Crap again, has a great opportunity & big deal set to drop Next month the same , month after that the same, same , same - but always the big one over the horizon ( WRC) Someone says - but he's part of our team and not contributing to our yearly numbers - be patient he's growing, seems to have good activity - always in the office etc etc . 8 months later - what happened to the big deal guy - OH Him - He's Gooooooooonnnnne Costing us too much money on contract, no revenue and his big deals always fell through. It was all bullsh&&& to start and to the end.
Cole
Roar Rookie
Could agree more with your post! Very well put and the "something more" I was alluding to at the end of my article. "But Cole the one point I will make is; “I have no bloody idea how it can be done”. It will take a master of an administrator to do it." - I also haven't got a clue who would be able to take on the job. That person will need a greater ability to be able to communicate "the plan", than the current RA mob. As it may take quite a few years and a lot of good will and patience from the states and rugby community to see the benefits of any new structure.
Cliff Bishkek
Roar Rookie
Cole, a well put together "point of fact". Australian Rugby is sliding into the abyss and there is not one body of Rugby Administration doing anything to avert the slide. The whole Board needs to be removed but the continual in-fighting and lack of cooperation between the State Administrations is what needs to be culled. All administrations are not on the same page for the betterment and strengthening of Rugby in Australia. We definitely need the Central Structure of NZ, with no variations to suit the state administrations - control from central but with a constitution which delivers growth and assistance to the grassroots, club rugby, etc. Also, the Club Rugby Administrations in Qld, NSW and ACT need to be busted right down and told to get behind the full development of rugby throughout Australia and not just for their own little "power heap" But Cole the one point I will make is; "I have no bloody idea how it can be done". It will take a master of an administrator to do it.
Cole
Roar Rookie
Yeah it's a bit of a downbeat article but hopefully reflective of the "down on our luck" mood within the Oz Rugby community.
Cole
Roar Rookie
Credit must be given to the Eds here for the title, not sure what "slapping the proverbial pokie" is exactly alluding too but I was worried about the consistent use of the word "fallacy" and how that may be construed.
Ken Catchpole's Other Leg
Roar Guru
Take away Michael’s chips and put my photo behind the bar.
Ken Catchpole's Other Leg
Roar Guru
Yep, I and many many others have run out of chips. Take away Michael’s dice and my photo behind the bar.