The Wallabies play the old foe England at Twickenham on Sunday morning as they desperately search for a positive end to a horrible 2018.
While there have been plenty of subplots to Australia games this year what with the ups and downs, in many ways the stakes in this game are simple.
Win at all costs and much can be temporarily forgiven. Lose – again – to Eddie Jones’ England, and it is going to be a very long flight home.
There’s unfortunate late news on the selection front for the Wallabies which is that David Pocock has been withdrawn from the team, replaced by Pete Samu at No.8, and Marika Koroibete brought onto the bench.
Israel Folau at least has managed to deal with the gastro bug that hit him earlier this week and will start at full back. Excitingly Jack Maddocks will also get a start at 11.
The front five similarly is looking good for the Wallabies. Adam Coleman, Izack Rodda, Sekope Kepu, and Scott Sio all start but there will be many eyes watching how Tolu Latu starts at the line out – a place he’s struggled with recently.
One concern though is that Maddocks is inexperienced and Folau can struggle with his positioning at full back when in defence.
When you review the way in which the England side moved around Damian McKenzie, All Blacks full back, a couple of weeks ago to score their opening try, the Wallabies back three are going to have to communicating and watching very well to ensure they don’t get caught out too.
Kurtley Beale is missing after having been stood down for breaking team protocol following Australia’s loss to Wales, as is Adam Ashley-Cooper.
Instead Cheika has gone with the same combo at 10 and 12 as he did against Italy with Bernard Foley at inside centre and Matt Toomua starting at fly half.
You assume they will do some switching here and the option of two playmakers is definitely attractive on paper.
However, neither of these two players have been able to light up a game so far for the Wallabies (with Foley having plenty of chances) and so perhaps it’s their kicking boots that will be busier than their creative skills.
A lot will be expected and required from the experienced Will Genia. He’ll get to make his 100th appearance in this fantastic setting and he deserves all the applause he will hopefully get.
He’s not as quick as he used to be – who of us are?! – but he has the brains and talent to dominate this game and his team really, really need him to have a game to remember.
This series of northern vs southern hemisphere matches has seen a lot of tactical kicking especially from the likes of Ireland, Wales and England.
They seem to back their defence and want to pin the opposition back deep in their own halves and force them to make exit after exit in the hope of a mistake.
On the one hand, the Aussies have the greatest aerial weapon in world rugby in Folau. On the other hand, the’ve have struggled with their exits for much of the year and have racked up some concerning error counts as well.
Israel Folau. (Photo by Paul Kane/Getty Images)
From an English point of view this is just as crucial a match. Even though they’ve had a good run with two victories over South Africa, one over Japan and a 1-point loss to the All Blacks from their past four games, the team are still trying to earn back the trust and confidence of their fans that they enjoyed in 2016 and 2017.
Eddie Jones is definitely not under as much pressure as Cheika but both will know that a win this weekend, and the bragging rights that come with it, is hugely important.
The English team look good but not without potential weaknesses. Sam Underhill at flanker for example was incredible against the All Blacks but the English back row in general does lack a little light weight.
Equally the centre partnership of Henry Slade and Ben Te’o is new and hasn’t fired yet.
However there is plenty of quality elsewhere with Owen Farrell stepping up well to the new co-captain role and newbies like Joe Cokanasiga impressing in last weekend’s game against the Japanese.
Prediction
This is actually quite a tough game to predict. Both sides could win this and both have shown that they have the ability to lose games they should win.
There will be an incredible amount of pressure on all players on the pitch and with the home crowd backing them, and key players in better form than their opposition, the English should take this.
England to win by 5 points.
Stu
Roar Rookie
I think the only reason why we don't get flogged more often than we do is that the good teams know we won't catch them over 80 minutes, so they barely extend more than they feel they need to. They all seem to just canter home against us these days.
Harry Jones
Expert
I’m worried about this one. I can see the Wallaby 10-12 channel being steamrolled, and the WB 15 being flummoxed by diagonal kicks that find grass. Hoping Australia can find a way to compete at the breakdown, to slow English ball, otherwise it’s gonna be Sarries-like.
Mungbean74
Roar Rookie
I’ve made the mistake of watching the Wallabies vs AB’s semi final 2003 World Cup while I’m waiting for tonight’s game. True skill and warrior like efforts compared to what I’m seeing with the current team. Larkham, Flaterly, Mortlock, Tequiri, Sailor, Rogers/Roff. Greagan, Young, Cannon, Darwin, Nathan Sharpe, Lyon, Phil Waugh, George Smith, Harrison, After watching this I think we can’t win with the team we’re putting on the paddock tonight. Wallabies down by 15 against England.
Albatross
Guest
WB’s will be trounced at twickers. The sort of drubbing which should hopefully see the end of chieka, once and for all. If Eddie is smart, he’ll even tell his lads to go easy on the WB’s.. therefore leaving chieka in his post till the World Cup.
Johnjohns
Guest
What a joke. People break team protocol so the captain and leadership group, which includes pocock decide to tell staff. This anti Hooper stuff is beyond a joke. Do you think if an all blacks player in the same camp did the same thing Kieran reed wouldnt discuss the breacg with staff...
Aussieinexile
Roar Rookie
England by 15 points, my original prediction prior to the latest announcements was England by 10.
Hoges
Roar Rookie
For years now the Australian rugby pre ss has been pushing this idea that Folau is “the greatest aerial weapon in world rugby”. I just don’t see it. He makes some great catches but drops plenty as well, he is certainly not infallible. I would love to see the stats comparing him to other international fullbacks. I doubt he catches the high ball with any more frequency than Ben Smith, Willie Le Roux, Leigh Halfpenny, Stuart Hogg or Rob Kearney to name a few. All of those players though have the ability to slot in as first receiver in their respective sides, a skill Folau certainly does not possess. I can’t see Folau as any better under the highball than any other international fullback and both Waratahs and the Wallabies generally choose to not use him for the cross-field kick, either because they feel they don’t have a kicker to execute the move or they don’t see it as a worth the risk in a risk v reward sense. Yes, I agree he has relatively safe hands but the way the press continually carries on you would be forgiven for thinking he has never dropped a ball in his career and I’m afraid that just isn’t so. Please stop elevating him to this mythical status he simply does not deserve it. I’d be happy to be proven wrong if someone can provide some statistics that show he is clearly better than the other international tier one fullbacks but I watch enough rugby to know it’s just not the case.
Lara
Guest
The Wallabies need a really good start or it will be a tough night chasing. England needs to be under pressure n they will crack ,if they are chasing. The Poms score through kicking not tries, get that 8 point plus lead n defend like your life depends n it like the Irish.....time for NG defence to standup ...no more bs.
Sinclair Whitbourne
Roar Rookie
Whilst England have some serious issues, this Oz side looks in far worse shape. The lineout looks likely to be under huge pressure and the scrum could be anything; I am not sure it has the craftiness to cope with England. The backrow still really has 2 x7 when you look at Samu's build and instincts. I know he palyed at 6 for Cant'y but he has been a 7 for much of his career. I think he will struggle to have impact. The loose looks about even, or England's way. The backline for Oz looks a shambles. In any sporting contest the under-dog has a chance but I will be very surprised if Oz can jag this. I just don't think anything will turn around until the coaching staff - all of them with the possible exception of Byrne go. Played in a well coached and well selected side I really believe that the player group on offer in Oz has great promise.
Realist271
Guest
Yep England to smash us
FunBus
Roar Rookie
I think WB fans are way too pessimistic about this game. What I see is a very solid front five and, while Pocock is obviously a loss, a balanced back row. Two playmakers who provide an extra kicking option which has been sorely missing, Kerevi in good form and a dangerous back three. Against that, as Neil said, is an England that has been inconsistent of late they have a 21 year old kid on debut and are missing a number of keys starters. The Aussies can empty the tank as it’s the last match of the season, and Twickenham holds no fears for them. This is very far from a foregone conclusion.
Cliff Bishkek
Roar Rookie
Yes Mike - like a "she loves me, she loves me not, she loves me, she loves me not, ……. My heart cannot even see a win. My heart is ruled by common rugby sense which states that you cannot win when players are played out of their positions. The whole backline is "out of position", except for Genia and Toomua - although Toomua is a better 12 than a 10. And no Banks, no Thor, Latu instead of FF (which should be BPA), hopefully Samu can deliver, as I do rate him but many do not. And two wingers on the bench - Banks should have been one of them and not Koriobete - Sava (spelling) should have been the only one. Too many intangibles and they are all players on the wrong squares of the chessboard.
Dan in Devon
Guest
I hope you are right. I would love an Aussie win. But at Twickenham, England are hard to beat at the worst of times. Foley at 12 is just a white flag for me. It suggests that this team is clueless about its shape and what it wants to do. To see an Aussie backline throwing inside passes 10 metres behind the gainline against Wales just filled me with dread.
Jimbo81
Guest
Hooper is not a captain. Has to resort to dobbing. Why didn’t he simply inform them they were in breach of team protocol, the family members could have left and no media alerted. Dumb dumb dumb dumb dumb!
Bob wire
Guest
I predict English dominance at scrum and line out, at the breakdown and at resets. A complicated defence which has been praised in the last two tests will face a sterner test and will be found wanting, the attack will be ineffective as per normal, lots of passing, crabbing and not much else, kicking will be aimless. Depending on Folau to take the high ball and cross the line for a try won't happen, he appears to have lost interest. I hope I'm wrong, maybe the Wallabies will have a blinder and turn it all on for Will Genia's 100th test, a heck of an achievement, well done Will! Hopefully the photographers will pick someone other than Genia for the post match photograph of a player looking teed off after another loss. I also predict some of the coaching staff will be cleaning out their lockers on return to Australia.
Bobby
Guest
Biggest game of the year and some dobber ruins the bit of team spirit there was. Check would be furious at the leadership group for bringing it to his attention. He then had no choice but to act. Such a shame. The dobber will incur the wrath or disrespect of most within the playing group. Bit like Ben Now an some years ago
Neil Back
Roar Rookie
I would say England are difficult to predict though Dan. Horrible 6N, some very weird and inconsistent performances on tour to SA, another horror performance in the AI’s first up against the Boks, then pulled a performance from nowhere against NZ before getting the run around from Japan. Should be a shellacking from the English - but this season should have been a lot of things for England it hasn’t been.
Dan in Devon
Guest
On what planet is this a difficult game to predict? Is Australian rugby really deluded beyond all hope?
BuffaloTheorist
Roar Rookie
Agreed Freddie. If a halfback dominates this game, it will be Youngs for England, a very smart operator at the base of the ruck. He will ensure the ball stays in front of their pack and wait for us to implode. Genia is a Wallabies stalwart whose running game has disappeared. Love the guy but he can’t do it on his own like he could in his prime. Would love the see the Wallas send Kerevi at Farrell all day, shame we don’t have a Timu or Valetini to do the same. I reckon England will accumulate the threes early before the game opens up for them once their bench arrives. Could get ugly.
Mike
Guest
My heart says a win for the Wallabies, whilst the head say's a thumping is awaiting us!