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The Wallabies play the old foe England at Twickenham on Sunday morning as they desperately search for a positive end to a horrible 2018.
While there have been plenty of subplots to Australia games this year what with the ups and downs, in many ways the stakes in this game are simple.
Win at all costs and much can be temporarily forgiven. Lose – again – to Eddie Jones’ England, and it is going to be a very long flight home.
There’s unfortunate late news on the selection front for the Wallabies which is that David Pocock has been withdrawn from the team, replaced by Pete Samu at No.8, and Marika Koroibete brought onto the bench.
Israel Folau at least has managed to deal with the gastro bug that hit him earlier this week and will start at full back. Excitingly Jack Maddocks will also get a start at 11.
The front five similarly is looking good for the Wallabies. Adam Coleman, Izack Rodda, Sekope Kepu, and Scott Sio all start but there will be many eyes watching how Tolu Latu starts at the line out – a place he’s struggled with recently.
One concern though is that Maddocks is inexperienced and Folau can struggle with his positioning at full back when in defence.
When you review the way in which the England side moved around Damian McKenzie, All Blacks full back, a couple of weeks ago to score their opening try, the Wallabies back three are going to have to communicating and watching very well to ensure they don’t get caught out too.
Kurtley Beale is missing after having been stood down for breaking team protocol following Australia’s loss to Wales, as is Adam Ashley-Cooper.
Instead Cheika has gone with the same combo at 10 and 12 as he did against Italy with Bernard Foley at inside centre and Matt Toomua starting at fly half.
You assume they will do some switching here and the option of two playmakers is definitely attractive on paper.
However, neither of these two players have been able to light up a game so far for the Wallabies (with Foley having plenty of chances) and so perhaps it’s their kicking boots that will be busier than their creative skills.
A lot will be expected and required from the experienced Will Genia. He’ll get to make his 100th appearance in this fantastic setting and he deserves all the applause he will hopefully get.
He’s not as quick as he used to be – who of us are?! – but he has the brains and talent to dominate this game and his team really, really need him to have a game to remember.
This series of northern vs southern hemisphere matches has seen a lot of tactical kicking especially from the likes of Ireland, Wales and England.
They seem to back their defence and want to pin the opposition back deep in their own halves and force them to make exit after exit in the hope of a mistake.
On the one hand, the Aussies have the greatest aerial weapon in world rugby in Folau. On the other hand, the’ve have struggled with their exits for much of the year and have racked up some concerning error counts as well.
Israel Folau. (Photo by Paul Kane/Getty Images)
From an English point of view this is just as crucial a match. Even though they’ve had a good run with two victories over South Africa, one over Japan and a 1-point loss to the All Blacks from their past four games, the team are still trying to earn back the trust and confidence of their fans that they enjoyed in 2016 and 2017.
Eddie Jones is definitely not under as much pressure as Cheika but both will know that a win this weekend, and the bragging rights that come with it, is hugely important.
The English team look good but not without potential weaknesses. Sam Underhill at flanker for example was incredible against the All Blacks but the English back row in general does lack a little light weight.
Equally the centre partnership of Henry Slade and Ben Te’o is new and hasn’t fired yet.
However there is plenty of quality elsewhere with Owen Farrell stepping up well to the new co-captain role and newbies like Joe Cokanasiga impressing in last weekend’s game against the Japanese.
Prediction
This is actually quite a tough game to predict. Both sides could win this and both have shown that they have the ability to lose games they should win.
There will be an incredible amount of pressure on all players on the pitch and with the home crowd backing them, and key players in better form than their opposition, the English should take this.
England to win by 5 points.
Join The Roar rugby editor Christy Doran, former Wallaby Matt Toomua and a cast of regular and special guests as they look at the biggest issues in the game on The Roar Rugby Podcast. If you’re looking for great odds on the next game check out Aussie bookmaker PlayUp. Chances are you’re about to lose. Set a deposit limit.