Sapporo awaits

By Harry Jones / Expert

“Everybody has a plan until they get punched in the mouth,” famously pronounced Iron Mike Tyson in his heyday.

The 2019 Rugby World Cup will start with haymakers in every pool. In Yokohama, the body-punching, flat-nosed Ireland will face speed-jabbing, fast-footed Scotland in Pool A, while in Pool B, the ever-dangerous but wildly inconsistent knockout artist Springboks face their favourite rivals, the much-talented and never counted out world champion All Blacks.

The Jocks won’t fear their mates from across the Irish Sea, and the last three matches between South Africa and New Zealand have been decided by a couple of points and one big moment.

Tickets for these two icebreakers will be harder to find than a black cat in a coal mine.

The gloves will touch in Pool C and immediately we will see a rematch of Argentina and France, both trying to resurrect faded grandeur. Nobody will want to make book on that match, now or then.

And in the wet northern town of Sapporo, the Wallabies will run out on to a baseball-soccer field with a retractable roof and about 40,000 fans, and face rugby’s version of Tyson’s bobbing, weaving, threshing machine attack: the Flying Fijians.

They are overdue for a repeat of prior quarter-final visits, and have all the belief in the world, after they toppled a French team in Paris.

Cheika has a handful of games before September 21, 2019 to find a plan that survives the sickening blast that will be the offloading offense of a huge and fast backrow, one of the most underrated second rows in world rugby, battle-hardened props from the Premiership, a Top 14 star-studded backline, with Olympic gold medal heroes all over the show.

When the game is tight, the best of the Drua will roll on.

Here is the immortal Fijian team that beat the Tricolours at the Stade de France.

15. Metuisela Talebula, 14. Josua Tuisova, 13. Semi Radradra, 12. Jale Vatubua, 11. Vereniki Goneva, 10. Ben Volavola, 9. Frank Lomani, 8. Viliame Mata, 7. Peceli Yato, 6. Dominiko Waqaniburotu (c), 5. Leone Nakarawa, 4. Tevita Cavubati, 3. Manasa Saulo, 2. Sam Matavesi, 1. Campese Maafu

Substitutes: 16. Mesulame Dolokoto, 17. Eroni Mawi, 18. Kalivati Tawake, 19. Albert Tuisue, 20. Semi Kunatani, 21. Henry Seniloli, 22. Alivereti Veitokani, 23. Eroni Sau.

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In the past, a Wallaby team facing Fiji might expect to find parity, or even dominance, at the breakdown and set piece. But, if that is Cheika’s plan, he may find himself on the canvas, face down, haranguing a referee for calling the fight early.

A couple of Drua man the reserve front row, but that’s a 55-cap Leicester prop starting, in Maafu, and Saulo has plied his trade at Toulon and now the London Irish, so there’s no easy scrum on offer.

Hooker Matavesi comes from a serious rugby family, and has been scoring tries at the rate of a winger.

Nakawara is one of the best locks in the world; the Player of the Year in Europe and a stalwart for Racing 92 and Glasgow.

He’s a real threat to score tries as you watch, prepare to stop, and simply cannot do a bloody thing about.

His 12 Test tries will make the Wallabies nervous; his opposite number will need to hit hard and hope.

His lineout mate will be Worcester-Newcastle star Cavubati, who can shift his 120-kilogram, 2.01-metre frame across a pitch with absurd speed.

Lineouts in general may be a trial for the Aussie hookers, with a Fijian loose trio all capable of playing lock: captain Waqaniburotu of Brive is the shortest of the loose trio, and a wee bit taller than Pooper, at 1.96m and 114 fast kilograms.

Clermont’s Yato and Edinburgh’s Mata are both 1.97m and all three of them have Sevens skills at their size.

Nobody will ever accuse Adam Coleman and Izack Rodda of being meek, and David Pocock and Michael Hooper are nothing if not brave, but flip it, I am not sure they can stem this tide of overhand rights and lefts.

What is the plan? Will it survive the first half’s punches?

It will not get easier for the Wallaby backline, particularly if the defensive setup plan has Kurtley Beale, Bernard Foley, Reece Hodge, and Dane Haylett-Petty sticking their heads in the way of big knees.

At wing, Fiji has the Bulldozer (Tuisova, with 37 tries for Toulon), a premiership finisher in Goneva (55 tries for his two English clubs), and Bordeaux’s Talebula at the back (44 tries for Bordeaux).

In the midfield, there are absolute batterers: a semi-truck named Semi (1.9m/105 kg) and a guy named Jale (1.89m/121 kg) who will get over the gainline.

Hell, the flyhalf is a good Western Sydney boy by way of the Crusaders and Australia U/20s named Volavola, who looks a bit like a blindside and dates Hollywood actresses.

He’ll catch zippy passes from Drua star Lomani.

What is Cheika’s plan to win the first match of the 2019 Rugby World Cup? How will it work? Who is needed?

Samu Kerevi looks like he might be ready, on attack. Izzy Folau, too.

But what’s the plan to stop Fiji’s offloads? Can a Pooper defence handle support play by giants?

Who is the third and fourth lineout Wallaby option in deep defensive positions? What will the Wallabies do to change the course of the match if it starts to get away?

The uppercuts will be hard and sure. Fiji may dominate the impact zone. What’s the Wallaby counter? It’s happening tomorrow, basically.

What’s the plan, after the punches land?

The Crowd Says:

2018-12-15T07:28:28+00:00

Hauraki

Guest


Mike Tyson may have 'repeated' the quote. Joe Louis created it, and was actually 'Everyone has a plan until they get punched on the nose '

2018-12-13T12:48:40+00:00

gatesy

Roar Guru


Yowser!!! Harry, you are starting to capture the feel .. but don't peak too early. We need much more of this insightful material

AUTHOR

2018-11-30T13:56:11+00:00

Harry Jones

Expert


Billy Joel sang about that ... You may be right I may be crazy

2018-11-30T02:23:52+00:00

Ralph

Roar Guru


Kind of supports the newer laws goal of keeping the game open. Be interesting to see if this cup is dominated by defence as it looks it might be.

2018-11-30T01:51:00+00:00

RobC

Roar Guru


HAZAAAAAaaaAA! WBs by 15.... according to Check. actually he may be right!

AUTHOR

2018-11-29T09:32:19+00:00

Harry Jones

Expert


They play it like a mad and wild symphony.

AUTHOR

2018-11-29T09:31:28+00:00

Harry Jones

Expert


It was squeaky bum time.

AUTHOR

2018-11-29T09:30:56+00:00

Harry Jones

Expert


I’m not sure, but they have wings! Thanks for reading.

AUTHOR

2018-11-29T09:29:57+00:00

Harry Jones

Expert


Thanks for your great post, Dani! It’s hard not to get all wound up already! That’s gonna be a cracker of a match. And the humility and faithfulness of the Fijians makes them impossible not to love.

2018-11-29T06:25:43+00:00

mzilikazi

Roar Pro


Great article, Harry. "a black cat in a coal mine. " Brilliant ! Have always seen Fijian Rugby as something special. In fact as I get older, I become more convinced that "the game they play in Heaven" has to be Fijian style rugby.

2018-11-29T06:18:43+00:00

mzilikazi

Roar Pro


"My opinion is RA should make the change NOW." Absolutly, Harry . Keeping the current coaching team is merely wasting time, and worse, talented players. Really any good set of club coaches would do no worse, and almost certainly a lot better. And they would not cost mega dollars....in fact many would do the job for decent expenses only....what a dream, to caoch the WB's in Japan in 2018. But ofc, I am dreaming.

2018-11-29T06:13:45+00:00

mzilikazi

Roar Pro


That was a great game, Brian. Fiji could have won that one. Memory plays tricks over time, but remember a fairly soft try scored by the Bks, and then Fiji really getting going. Some tough calls against them by the ref. too

2018-11-29T02:37:19+00:00

DaniE

Roar Guru


Lovely stuff Harry. As a Fiji fan, reading this invigorates me. You mentioned in the comments that the Drua are winners - I think this is a vital point of comparison with the current Wallabies. Should there be no changes in the Wallaby coaching set-up and approach, then Fiji is so much more likely to win than has been expected previously. Their confidence is on the up, unlike the Wobs. There is such a depth to the Fijian side, as seen by their playing roster overseas and locally with the Drua. Even better, McKee’s sensible and effective selections, utilitising the best of both worlds, made for a side with huge potential. What’s great is that the team looked quite cohesive despite a short preparation time and only a few games. Fiji’s development of their local players has so much more of a professional sheen, with more focus on set piece; their scrum and breakdowns were awesome. That they look more organised than the Aussies is food for positivity amongst Fiji fans, and concern for Wallaby ones!

2018-11-29T00:31:10+00:00

Carlin

Roar Rookie


Thanks Harry for the read. When the groups came out for the World Cup, I felt Australia had the least difficult pool especially given their dominance over Wales in recent years. A year or so later now there is a lot of uncertainty and they are going to be challenged by Fiji. The Fiji team is full of natural athletes and as you point out a lot are battle hardened in Northern Hemisphere Rugby. Their second row and back row forwards are big skillful men who have the potential to catch Australia out with their current defensive patterns. And we all know how lethal their backs are. Also given Wales having recent success and are building an extremely competitive squad right across the park, Australia have some work to do to make the quarter finals. I would hope in the lead up to the World Cup their selections are consistent and are not juggling with players out of position as there is not much opportunity to build cohesion in 2019. Is Nemani Nadolo still in the Fijian mix? A very big powerful winger.

AUTHOR

2018-11-28T23:29:20+00:00

Harry Jones

Expert


And they now, have, BELIEF! Which as Irish can attest to, is big.

AUTHOR

2018-11-28T23:28:22+00:00

Harry Jones

Expert


XXX rated!

AUTHOR

2018-11-28T23:28:05+00:00

Harry Jones

Expert


The Drua thing, I think, is a big thing. They are WINNERS!

AUTHOR

2018-11-28T23:27:15+00:00

Harry Jones

Expert


Yes. I’m not holding my breath. Look at how long Coetzee dodged a ‘certain’ ax.

2018-11-28T23:17:52+00:00

Wal

Roar Guru


Once again, Harry, you have outdone yourself. Whilst many of us had grave concerns for the Island rugby teams post-professionalism and European club "plundering" I am very happy to concede for the most part I, in particular, was wrong. The regular high-level professional Rugby has lifted Fiji in particular, - Tonga & Samoa probably not so much as they often had players in the NZ system so have had less to benefit. The next challenge is a funding model to ensure the Pacific governing bodies are profitable and can keep producing talent via their own systems.

2018-11-28T22:45:46+00:00

Rugby Tragic

Roar Rookie


I don’t disagree about Cheika needing to be replaced now, before the RWC but I just don’t think RA will make that decision. If it was in terms of money, the closer to the end of the coach’s contract, the more affordable an early dismissible will be.

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