Mitchell Starc wasted all four new balls in this first Test against India and has now averaged 49 with the ball in his last five matches, casting doubt over his position in the Australian side.
The gifted left-armer has never traded on accuracy but in this Test he has sprayed the ball in a manner rarely seen from a regular Test bowler.
So out of sync was Starc in the second innings yesterday that he conceded an extraordinary 16 byes from wild deliveries which wicketkeeper Tim Paine could not get a glove on.
While Australia’s faltering batting lineup is their biggest concern at present, the pressure released when Starc has taken the ball has been a key factor in India taking control of this Test.
I cannot remember the last time a bowler’s figures were more misleading than Starc’s match return of 5 for 103.
Three of his wickets were tail-enders, with his two top-order scalps being gifts from Indian opener Murali Vijay, who twice edged behind from Starc with airy drives.
India’s out-of-form opening pair is the biggest weakness in their lineup, offering Australia a potential early look at the tourists’ two key batsmen – Cheteshwar Pujara and Virat Kohli. But to get that early look, Australia have to make the most of the new ball.
Right now, Starc is butchering that opportunity. He was far too wayward with the first, second and third new balls Australia accessed in this Test.
Then Starc’s new-ball performances reached a nadir yesterday when he was dragged by captain Tim Paine after just two rank overs with the second new ball.
There is no need for me to describe in detail how bad that brief spell was when you can just look at this graphic from cricket analytics firm CricViz.
The most worrying thing about that graphic is that it’s not an anomaly – Starc has regularly been this loose, or at least close to it, with the new ball in Tests this year.
Granted, he has never been an uber-reliable new ball bowler, one who makes the most of it more often than not like his long-time pace sidekick Josh Hazlewood.
But he has not been this consistently erratic since early in his Test career. Back then, Starc had excuses for his imprecision.
Firstly, he was a tearaway quick in his early 20s, the style of bowler from whom you cannot reasonably expect great consistency. Secondly, he was never given a chance to settle in the Australian team and find his feet at Test level.
The most bizarre statistic of Starc’s Test career is that his first 14 Tests were split up across ten separate stints in the Australian team. Again and again he came into the team for one solitary Test before being dropped, rested or injured.
(AAP Image/Dave Hunt)
When finally in 2015, more than three years after his debut, Starc was given a proper run at Test cricket, he made massive strides. From the start of that year up until the end of the first Test in South Africa this year, Starc’s Test numbers were incredible.
In that time he took 134 wickets at 23. His strike rate was a blistering 42 and he averaged five wickets per Test. They are the numbers of a great Test bowler.
In that aforementioned first Test in South Africa, Starc was Man of the Match, grabbing nine wickets for the Test as Australia comfortably defeated the Proteas.
Since then, however, he has lost his way. In the next two matches against the Proteas, he took a combined 3-294 on pitches which were good for fast bowling.
His following two Tests were against Pakistan in the UAE where he looked threatening during some spells but pedestrian in many others.
In between those two Test series he had a long layoff due to a bone stress reaction in his right leg. But he’s now been back in action for more than two months.
Whether his body is hindering his bowling right now I do not know, but what is not in doubt is that he looks bereft of rhythm and confidence.
If Australia lose this first Test – and that looks extremely likely – then the Border-Gavaskar Trophy will be on the line in the second match at Perth starting on Friday.
With only three rest days in between these Tests, Starc has very limited time to correct whatever is ailing him. Given the gravity of that match, Australia must seriously consider replacing him with in-form Victorian quick Chris Tremain.
Tremain and veteran seamer Peter Siddle are the back-up pacemen in Australia’s squad. Of course, they don’t have to pick a bowler from their squad, they could pull a surprise by selecting a bolter like sharp young quick Jhye Richardson, who is in blazing form with 26 wickets at 18 in the Sheffield Shield.
Or they could go for the safety-first option of picking the vastly experienced Siddle, who played in both Tests against Pakistan in the UAE alongside Starc. Siddle is, however, struggling for penetration these days.
Across five first-class matches in the past two months, he has taken just 13 wickets at 35, including three wickets at 56 in the Tests against Pakistan. In the Shield last summer, Siddle took 24 wickets at an average of 40, while his Victorian teammate Tremain ran amok with 51 wickets at 21.
Tremain is dominating the Shield again this summer, with 27 wickets at 22, bringing his tally across the past four Shield seasons to 155 wickets at 21.
(Photo: Paul Kane/Getty Images)
The selectors erred by not handing him a Test debut in the UAE, which would have left him better prepared to play a role in this blockbuster series against India.
Regardless, at 27 years old, with no injury concerns and in the form of his career, Tremain surely is ready for such a challenge.
The selectors will be understandably reluctant to drop Starc considering what a hugely valuable player he has been over the past four years. But right now he is dragging down Australia’s attack, which is the only strength possessed by this cobbled-together Test unit.
Leftwhinge
Guest
His record will surely improve if he finds some comrades to sandpaper the red thing for him...
Kane
Guest
His problem is he has no ticker, he never has. James Pattinson would be one of the best fast bowlers we've ever seen if he had Starc's body.
danno
Guest
I'd select J Richardson on the Perth wicket. Just took an 8 for not many and broke Maddinsons arm. Handy lower bat too. Starc needs to go back to 1st class cricket to find form. Tremain and Worrall to tour England, seam and swing, not raw pace.
Andre Leslie
Roar Guru
I'll tell you who wouldn't waste the new ball... P Siddle. He was, after all, in the Test team before this series began.
Geoff Lawson
Guest
Ronan What are you smoking? He took 5-100 when not at his best. That is the sign of a superior bowler . The Test was lost because of the sub- standard batting House of mirrors for you !
thecolumn
Roar Rookie
Fast, bouncy wicket. I think I'd be sticking with him, he will suit this wicket. Give him some time to find form, he'll be good.
Gav
Guest
Yep, give the new rock to Pat! He is a super star, just behind in the pecking order, now is his time. There’s no way Starc will be dropped for Perth. You might talk about it for the third test if he continues to have radar probs.
Chris Kettlewell
Roar Guru
Replacing him with Tremain is no guarantee either though. He's done well in first class cricket, but has never played test cricket. So either way there's a risk, risk a rookie in his first test or someone who has done some amazing things at test level but is just looking a bit out of sorts at the moment. Either way is a risk. Really, this has to be the time for the bowling coach to earn his money. And Starc needs to be honest also. If there's something physically wrong that's causing him to struggle to really feel right, then he probably needs to not play, not try to play through it, but if he's physically fine then I think it's up to the bowling coach to work with him over the next three days and work out the kinks. I stand by the fact that in the opening overs of the test Starc's seam position was probably the best I've seen it in years, and hence he was able to get a little early swing. I think Starc has to play this next test match. Despite lots of issues coming out of the first test, I think the selectors probably have to give pretty much everyone picked in that match a bit more of a chance to prove themselves. That even includes Finch and Handscomb.
David McRae
Guest
Starc would appear to be one of the top 4 0r 5 batsmen in the side, after Lyon, Cummins and, umm, err, someone else. Therefore, drop Finch to bring in Tremain. The batting wouldnt lose anything. The long tail would be an advantage.
Chris Kettlewell
Roar Guru
I think he's started bowling a bit more this year... Also, it's common for NSW to actually have 5 bowlers in the team, thus someone like Henriques isn't required to bowl so much. Not that I'm suggesting he should be picked to play for Australia. Just saying...
Baggy_Green
Roar Pro
Tremain should be the next cab in the bowling ranks surely. What speeds is he bowling this season any idea ? It is also time for Jhye Richardson , Matthew Kelly , Gabe Bell and Biy Stanlake to feature regularly in and around the squad. Else again we will be left in a situation like there was nobody to replace McGrath , Gillespie , Lee and Warne Where is Doggett btw ?
Bearfax
Roar Guru
Still doesn't explain why you want to drop Starc, Ronan, give his performance in this test. He was one of our successful players, where there was a dearth of quality. Tremain may be having a golden period, but Starc is doing what Australia needs, getting wickets cheaply. If in a couple of tests at home this changes, maybe then. As I said our problem is batting not bowling. Our 6 batsmen averaged for the game overall 24.58. Our four bowlers averaged 26 (even if ignoring the two not out scores that's still 20). Australia's batting line up is the weakest I've seen since the World Series break up. Two batsmen I'd definitely have in there from what's left would be Kurt Patterson and Henriques. Both are fighters who cherish their wicket and Henriques has one of the best all rounder figures.
cos1
Guest
Starc looked pretty ordinary at times against the top order. It was also troubling that he wasn't able to hit his yorker like he used to against the tail. But can anyone else do what he does, when he is on song? The fact is, with our batting line up, which in all honesty is probably good for about 200-300 an innings, we need something more than solid bowlers. We need someone who is going to buy us a test. Starc can do that when he is in top form. You may well say hope is not a plan, and it isn't. But looking at our recent record - and it is hard to understate how bad it is - I would definitely say that is where we are at at the moment. As for Tremain, he hasn't been tested at test level. It would be asking a lot of him to bring him in now when he would be expected to have not too many runs to bowl to. I am a huge Siddle fan and he is certainly a more solid option. But I am not sure how he would go, especially after watching him in the UAE. On top of that, he is certainly not for like - Siddle is not a main strike weapon. However, the down side of continuing with Starc is that it would probably mean that we need more insurance in the form of Mitch Marsh or another allrounder that can trot out a couple of spells when Starc is not hitting his straps. Reuniting the Marsh brothers would certainly annoy more than a few pundits.
JD St George
Roar Pro
Henriques hasn't been an all-rounder for a few years now.
Phil
Roar Rookie
Fair enough to drop Starc on his bowling figures but he is up there as a batsman. So is the rest of the tail if you look at the scores. From Travis Head upwards the team scored 133, from Travis downwards they scored 162. Maybe it's time to look somewhere other than Starc as a scapegoat. If the tail didn't wag then it would have been a cricketing tragedy. Looking at the top order I ask the question, how many of the current batsmen would make any other test team over the last 40 years? Let's face it, we are going through a batting drought at the moment, a severe drought, but as the old saying goes, the longer the drought the closer we are to rain. The Indians will win this series 4 blot, not necessarily because they are so supremely skilled but because of our lack of batting talent. As bad as it is at the moment, our time will come.
Steve Franklin
Roar Rookie
Every fast bowler in Australia wants to bowl at 160 km/h that's why they struggle to get teams out too much short rubbish trying to knock heads off , whoever is telling them to bowl that crap and teaching them to bowl short isn't a coaches backside .
Steve Franklin
Roar Rookie
And there you go that is the exact reason why he is bowling rubbish trying to break the speed radar and not concentrating on line or length
DingoGray
Roar Guru
No way in the World Should Siddle be in any discussions about being in the picture to replace Mitchell Starc. One guy who went away recently and continues to hold his own at State level. Just carried Queensland to an unlikely victory, is Michael Neser!!!!! Maybe we should be talking about these kind of options then tried and past guys like Siddle!!!!!! For me it's still the batting that's the biggest issue. Starc shouldn't be held responsible for our batsmen not being able to score runs. Not sure what more Joe Burns has to do? I know he's hasn't got big hundreds yet, but he's consistently getting runs. Averaging 47 this Shield Season. Another 90 runs at 45 this game. I rather a bloke get 90 runs a game then a bloke who's gets one hundred once a blue moon and then multiple failures afterwards....
Targa
Guest
Needs to pop into Bunnings! :-)
Ronan O'Connell
Expert
"And who would replace him?" Obviously Tremain, the guy who has dominated the last four Shield seasons in a row, taking 155 wickets at 21 with extraordinary consistency - has averaged between 18 and 22 in all four seasons. What Tremain has done is equivalent to a batsman averaging 60, 55, 60 and 55 over the past four Shield seasons.