Think about this.
If Essendon doesn’t win the premiership in 2019, the club’s longest premiership drought of 19 years will be equalled.
For a founding member of the eight-team breakaway Victorian Football League in 1897, a 19-year drought is a rather modest hiatus between premierships.
For the record, Essendon’s previous longest drought between premiership flags come from 1965 to 1984, an almost two-decade wait between the club’s twelfth and thirteenth premierships.
When considering two of the last three premiership teams have erased droughts of 62 (Western Bulldogs) and 37 (Richmond) years, the Bombers drought of 19 seems even more astonishing.
On average, the Bombers have won a VFL/AFL premiership every 7.5 years – a number bested only by the Brisbane Lions (7.33) and bitter rivals Hawthorn (7.23) – and have on average appeared in grand finals once every four years – second best to only Collingwood (2.9).
Since the club’s record-equalling sixteenth premiership in the first year of the new millennium, there’s been little to cheer about for Dons fans.
However, there are few teams rolling into the new season with more hype than the Bombers.
Many AFL pundits would agree with the summation that the Bombers were the best team left on the outside looking in last season.
The Bombers won eight of their final eleven games to close out 2018, with two of those losses being nail-biting defeats to Hawthorn and top of the ladder Richmond.
The Bombers averaged just under fifteen goals a game in those eight wins, with a forward line absent of its most important player in Joe Daniher, as well as being without diminutive small forward Orazio Fantasia for most.
Frustratingly for Dons fans, every impressive performance against Richmond or eventual premier West Coast was void by incomprehensible losses to Fremantle and, of all teams, Carlton.
(Photo: Adam Trafford/AFL Media/Getty Images)
While this inconsistency in performance has been one of the major knocks on the Bombers of recent times, so too has their lack of midfield talent.
Devon Smith was a revelation in 2018 – and was extremely unlucky to miss out on the final All-Australian team – though fellow former Giant Dylan Shiel is the big-ticket offseason acquisition that will be expected to aid a fledgeling midfield group that finished twelfth in average contested possessions (143.4) and tenth in clearances (36.8) in 2018.
Coach John Worsfold and Bombers fans will also be banking on plenty of improvement from within this season, after the impressive strides made in 2018 by youngsters Andrew McGrath (20 games), Aaron Francis (5), Kyle Langford (16) and Matt Guelfi (15).
There doesn’t seem to be too many in the football world that doubt Essendon’s weaponry at either end of the ground. If the midfield group can make the necessary improvements, this will quickly become a formidable Essendon side, at least on paper.
Though the Bombers hold the record for most premierships with Carlton (16), they also ironically hold the current record for longest active drought between finals wins. Every team in the league besides the Gold Coast have won a finals match since Essendon last tasted September victory in 2004.
Essendon have built a seriously competitive list, and are far enough removed now from the repercussions of the supplement saga to consider their list capable of taking them deep into September.
The last three premiers have gone from relative preseason obscurity to hoisting the cup in the middle of the MCG.
For the boys who play this grand old game, could 2019 be the drought-breaker?
The Brazilian
Roar Rookie
Not worried about my boys. No depth!? Meh. Really didn't lose that much. Lloyd was useful, yeah. Have enough talent waiting for opportunities. A better bet to play finals than Essendon. And a more realistic chance to 'be there at the end'.
The Brazilian
Roar Rookie
Exactly. Will there ins make them any better? I have my doubts.
Raimond
Roar Guru
You’d think they were heading for a purple patch, but we heard the same talk last year.
Thatsashame
Roar Rookie
Spot on peter. Daniher is the key as to how far into finals the bombers go. As for true tiger fan....youre kidding yourself to think they won't play finals. I think you need to worry about your boys. You've got no depth anymore and you won't get lucky 3 years in a row in the injury front. Tigers won't be there at the end.
Adam
Guest
I think they will play finals. They have a solid defence but would be good if Stewart or Mckernan could cement a spot up forward. Their small fowards are great.Midfield may still not be as good as the top teams but I think Bellchambers is underrated and they could surprise.
The Brazilian
Roar Rookie
Never, ever said they would go back-to-back. That would suit your narrative though. Not my fault comments take an age to appear, never know if the mods reject comments sometimes! Though I will repeat that Essendon are very ordinary and won't play finals this year.
Mac
Guest
True about the salary cap cheating... cough cough Carlton... but what Essendon did to the players was beyond belief and far and away the worst form of cheating we have ever seen. They should have been kicked out of the league forever. To think they were rewarded with the number one draft pick after what they did is astounding.
Paul D
Roar Guru
Ah my bad, that was what I was thinking of. Someone posted a list on here and they were waaaaay down the bottom of it.
JamesH
Roar Guru
So irrelevant that you had to say it twice? I didn't say they'd play finals, I'm just illustrating that they clearly aren't a 'very ordinary team' as you claim. Of course, given your tip that Richmond would leave everyone in their wake in 2018 I'm quite content for you to predict Essendon not playing finals this year.
Klompy
Guest
Hey Rob do you remember what happen when the Eagles won the 2006 Premiership.? Do remember that every one called Eagles cheats and strip them of that premiership and stripping of the Draft Picks? Do you remember the Supplement Scandal at Essendon? Both Clubs had too rebuild. I think you have a short memory> I think Melbourne will find I;t tougher this year and Richmond will choke again? John Worsfold is a very good Coach.
The Brazilian
Roar Rookie
Irrelevant, James. Footy doesn't work like that!
The Brazilian
Roar Rookie
If only footy worked like that . . . I said it last year and I'll say it again this year. Essendon will not play finals.
Brent Sternberg
Roar Guru
Hey Coconut, Good pick up mate. I've only just realised where I got those stats from only considered Brisbane as the current Lions incarnation (1997-) which is strange, so therefor you are correct. Thanks for reading.
JamesH
Roar Guru
That ordinary team was up 50-1 against the reigning premier in Perth. How did the Tiges fare against the Eagles over there?
JamesH
Roar Guru
Yawn.
JamesH
Roar Guru
Essendon actually has the 6th oldest list (average age) in the comp. The twist is that they have the second least experienced list (average games played), due in part to a handful of players missing a whole season and in part to the fact that McKernan, Dea, Hartley and Brown have all played very few games for their respective ages.
JamesH
Roar Guru
I used to think that too but it's actually incorrect. The 2000th year BC ran from 1 Jan 1999 to 31 Dec 2000. Every date during the year 2000 was part of the 2001st year BC.
Pete from Sydney
Guest
Mac, they did the crime and the time so now rehabilitation awaits them.Anyway baesd on your criteria there'd a bit a few clubs out for salary cap cheating...
Rob
Guest
What both clubs have been through in the last few years?? Essendons last few years were self inflicted and im still struggling to think of anything thats happened to the Eagles in the last few years - hardly a franchise thats faced any hard times in their entire existence...
Rob
Guest
Sorry bud but its a Melbourne v Richmond GF with the tigers making up the numbers like port did in 2007 :-)