The Canberra Raiders have long struggled to live up to their potential, and 2019 shapes as a further slip down the slope for the men from the nation’s capital.
Today, in the second part of my 2019 NRL preview series, I run the rule over the Green Machine.
Never able to settle on their best 17 and hampered by injuries, as well as with a number of players who didn’t perform and combinations that didn’t click, 2018 was pretty disappointing for the Raiders.
This is a team with plenty of promise, but while Ricky Stuart is at the helm, they may fail to ever realise it.
(AAP Image/Lukas Coch)
Their biggest problem in 2018 was the way they finished – they would be in games for the first hour, then find a way to mess things up. It was one relatively consistent aspect of their season, and something they must address.
Still, they aren’t the only issues, with their attack often heavily reliant on an underperforming duo and defence struggling on both edges.
Given the poor work they have done in recruitment and a challenging fixture list, which won’t be helpful in terms of building momentum or rhythm, this looks like another long season, with the issues likely proving too tough to fix in one swoop.
Club fact file
Colours: Green
Home ground: GIO Stadium
Premierships: three
Minor premierships: one
Best finish in last five years: 2016 – second (preliminary final loss)
2018 finish: tenth
Coach: Ricky Stuart
Captain: Jarrod Croker, Josh Hodgson
Squad
Jarrod Croker (c), Josh Hodgson (c), Brad Abbey, John Bateman, Luke Bateman, JJ Collins, Nick Cotric, Jarrod Croker, Emre Guler, Siliva Havili, Ata Hingano, Corey Horsburgh, Royce Hunt, Sebastian Kris, Joey Leilua, Dunamis Lui, Jack Murchie, Charnze Nicoll-Klokstad, Michael Oldfield, Josh Papalii, Jordan Rapana, Aidan Sezer, Iosia Soliola, Ryan Sutton, Joseph Tapine, Elliott Whitehead, Jack Wighton, Sam Williams, Hudson Young
Changes
Ins: John Bateman (Wigan Warriors), JJ Collins (Newcastle Knights), Charnze Nicoll-Klokstad (New Zealand Warriors), Ryan Sutton (Wigan Warriors), Hudson Young (promoted)
Outs: Blake Austin (Warrington Wolves), Shannon Boyd (Gold Coast Titans), Craig Garvey (Sydney Roosters), Charlie Gubb (Widnes Vikings), Liam Knight (Manly Sea Eagles), Junior Paulo (Parramatta Eels), Mikaele Ravalawa (St George Illawarra Dragons)
Canberra’s recruitment this year is weak. And that’s putting it nicely.
Their biggest problems are going to start up front. They have lost Shannon Boyd and Junior Paulo, who formed the engine room last year and did a pretty good job of it.
Charlie Gubb and Liam Knight, while not superstars, aren’t good losses either and will the club’s forward depth. Craig Garvey and Mikaele Ravalawa depart too, after getting limited time in top grade.
Half Blake Austin is also gone, but given his recent form, that doesn’t seem like an as big of a loss.
Their biggest recruits are both English forwards, which is a risk. John Bateman and Ryan Sutton were standouts in the English Super League, but they have big roles to fill in the NRL, which has seen mixed results from other players who have come across.
Of course, the Raiders already have Elliott Whitehead, Luke Bateman and Josh Hodgson.
JJ Collins and Hudson Young – a pair or unknowns – are the other two recruits and likely only there for depth.
Spine
Veteran half Aidan Sezer and English international Josh Hodgson have a huge role to play if the Raiders are to do anything good this season.
(AAP Image/Lukas Coch)
Hodgson’s loss was felt strongly in the first half of 2018, when he was injured, and having him back at full fitness will be huge.
Sezer’s kicking game will need to be pin-point accurate as well, but he may actually improve not having Austin next to him, with the Origin hopeful taking control of the team.
Youngster Ata Hingano is likely to partner Sezer, although journeyman Sam Williams is another option. A team like Canberra need to be in the business of risk-taking though, so Hingano should get first crack.
Where the x-factor and difference-making could come from though is at the back, with Jack Wighton trying to move on from some off-field issues. He has talent but struggles to realise it, with inconsistent performances and errors too frequent.
Backs
The Raiders have plenty of potential in the outside backs, but they need to be completing sets and playing consistent football to utilise them, which they failed to do during 2018.
When you think of the backs, Joey Leilua and Jordan Rapana immediately spring to mind. Rapana will be injured for the first half of the year though, while Leilua was inconsistent last year.
Rapana’s likely replacement is either Brad Abbey or Michael Oldfield – one is young, with plenty to prove, and the other a journeyman who can be counted on to get a job done, albeit not an amazing one.
Jarrod Croker will line-up on the other side of the park and has a huge role to play leading from the front again, while he has one of the game’s most exciting youngsters outside him.
Nick Cotric played all 24 games last year, had 12 tries, almost a line break per game, and an average of over six tackle busts every match. It truly was a phenomenal season and he will be hard to shut down.
No question the outside backs are Canberra’s biggest strength.
Forwards
The experience of Josh Papalii and Elliott Whitehead spearhead the forwards.
Ryan Sutton is over from England, having played 119 games for Wigan, but the 23-year-old isn’t the quality of some other imports who have made it in the NRL. Regardless, he will start up front, with Luke and John Bateman rounding out the starting pack, at lock and second row respectively.
On the surface at least, there’s a lack of depth, with Iosia Soliola needing a big year off the pine.
Joseph Tapine and Dunamis Lui are the probables to round out the bench, but watch for youngster Emre Guler, who will be pushing for a spot somewhere in the 17.
The biggest issue is that the Raiders had the fifth-worst defensive record in the competition last year, so unless there’s improvement there as a unit in 2019, we can expect more of the same, dour results.
Origin impact
Papalii is a walk-up start for the Maroons, while Cotric will go close to a Blues jumper. If the club’s going well, expect talk about Croker and Sezer, but realistically, they should only lose the one.
Likely best 17
1. Jack Wighton
2. Nick Cotric
3. Jarrod Croker (c)
4. Joey Leilua
5. Jordan Rapana (Brad Abbey until back from injury)
6. Aidan Sezer
7. Ata Hingano
8. Ryan Sutton
9. Josh Hodgson (c)
10. Josh Papalii
11. John Bateman
12. Elliott Whitehead
13. Luke Bateman
14. Siliva Havili
15. Joseph Tapine
16. Iosia Soliola
17. Dunamis Lui
Keys to the season
Can Jack Wighton show us his best?
Wighton only played 13 games for Canberra during 2018, due to his off-field issues, so he needs to have a big impact.
The fullback was actually pretty solid last year, with almost 140 running metres per game and 11 try involvements, at almost one per game. He has been error-prone throughout his career though, and popped up with some big ones at critical moments last year.
Add some poor decision-making and it’s clear why he has never been a serious Origin contender. What’s more, combining with Sezer and Hodgson, as well as some of the offloading from forwards like Papalii and Whitehead, he should be one of the comp’s most dangerous players – but he has never got to that level.
2019 is time to let the talent do the talking for Wighton.
(AAP Image/Lukas Coch)
How can the Raiders improve their defence?
This is a question of attitude rather than anything specific on the park which needs changing first and foremost.
We have always known Canberra as an entertaining side who like scoring points and playing an aggressive brand of footy. However, they might actually be able to improve their defence by cutting down errors.
They were in the top eight for errors last year, but it wasn’t about the numbers so much as the timing – Stuart’s side would often make big mistakes at crucial times.
Defence can be a form of attack, but it’s hard to do either when you’re giving up the ball at the end of games.
The other thing they must do is remain solid in the forward and avoid missed tackles up the middle.
Josh Hodgson will be dangerous with a full pre-season under the belt
When you think about the best hookers in the NRL, Hodgson’s name comes in near the top of the list.
His loss can’t be overstated during the first half of last year, and without him, the Raiders – who didn’t miss the eight by miles – may well have had a few extra wins and snuck into the finals.
That’s how important Hodgson is to the Raiders at both ends of the park.
The Canberra hooker has eyes-up vision in attack and picks the right option more often than not, making a shaky spine feel more solid.
It’s still not perfect, but a full pre-season in Australia ahead of what he will hope is a season free of injury could line him up as the Raiders’ most valuable player.
Enough to drag the Raiders up the ladder? Probably not, but there will definitely be some special moments with his play out of dummy half.
(AAP Image/Lukas Coch)
Fixtures
| Round | Date | Time (AEDT) | Opponent | Venue | TV |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sun Mar 17 | 6:10pm | Gold Coast Titans | CBus Super Stadium | Fox |
| 2 | Fri Mar 22 | 6pm | Melbourne Storm | GIO Stadium | Fox |
| 3 | Fri Mar 29 | 6pm | Newcastle Knights | GIO Stadium | Fox |
| 4 | Sat Apr 6 | 5:30pm | North Queensland Cowboys | 1300 Smiles Stadium | Fox |
| 5 | Sun Apr 14 | 6:10pm | Parramatta Eels | GIO Stadium | Fox |
| 6 | Sun Apr 21 | 4:05pm | Brisbane Broncos | GIO Stadium | Nine/Fox |
| 7 | Sun Apr 28 | 2pm | Manly Sea Eagles | Lottoland | Fox |
| 8 | Sat May 4 | 3pm | Penrith Panthers | McDonalds Park, Wagga | Fox |
| 9 | Sun May 12 | 2pm | Sydney Roosters | Suncorp Stadium | Fox |
| 10 | Sat May 18 | 7:35pm | South Sydney Rabbitohs | GIO Stadium | Fox |
| 11 | Sat May 25 | 3pm | North Queensland Cowboys | GIO Stadium | Fox |
| 12 | Sat Jun 1 | 7:35pm | Canterbury Bulldogs | ANZ Stadium | Fox |
| 13 | Fri Jun 7 | 7:55pm | Wests Tigers | Western Sydney Stadium | Nine/Fox |
| 14 | Thu Jun 13 | 7:50pm | Cronulla Sharks | GIO Stadium | Nine/Fox |
| 15 | Sat Jun 29 | 7:35pm | Parramatta Eels | TIO Stadium, Darwin | Fox |
| 17 | Sun Jul 14 | 6:10pm | St George Illawarra Dragons | WIN Stadium | Fox |
| 18 | Sat Jul 20 | 5:30pm | Wests Tigers | GIO Stadium | Fox |
| 19 | Sun Jul 28 | 4:05pm | Penrith Panthers | Panthers Stadium | Nine/Fox |
| 20 | Fri Aug 2 | 6pm | New Zealand Warriors | MT. Smart Stadium | Fox |
| 21 | Sun Aug 11 | 2pm | Sydney Roosters | GIO Stadium | Fox |
| 22 | Sat Aug 17 | 5:30pm | Melbourne Storm | AAMI Park | Fox |
| 23 | Sun Aug 25 | 4:05pm | Manly Sea Eagles | GIO Stadium | Nine/Fox |
| 24 | Sun Sep 1 | 2pm | Cronulla Sharks | Shark Park | Fox |
| 25 | Sat Sep 7 | 3pm | New Zealand Warriors | GIO Stadium | Fox |
The quick breakdown
Teams to play twice: Melbourne Storm, North Queensland Cowboys, Parramatta Eels, Manly Sea Eagles, Penrith Panthers, Sydney Roosters, Wests Tigers, Cronulla Sharks, New Zealand Warriors
Best home run: Round 2 – Round 11 (seven out of ten)
Worst away run: Round 12 – Round 20 (six out of eight)
Five-day turnarounds: two
Fixture analysis
The Raiders season can easily be broken down into three segments.
They start the season with a cruisy run, playing seven out of their first 11 at home. With a start on the Gold Coast against a revamped Titans outfit, they will then return home and more or less stay there.
After that, they hit the road, with just two home games across the next two months, before things finish more evenly.
Having to play the Storm, Cowboys, Panthers and Roosters twice is tough, while the Tigers, Sharks and Warriors bring unknown quantities. They do, however, get the Eels and Sea Eagles twice, so that should be a positive.
(AAP Image/Dan Himbrechts)
But still, the unbalanced nature of their fixture means they need to be at the top of the table after 11 rounds of footy, otherwise, you can more or less draw a line through Canberra’s chances in 2019.
Prediction
Canberra are a little bit all over the place in the key positions, have question marks in all the difficult spots, and are still relying on Ricky Stuart to come up with a winning gameplan – something he hasn’t done in years.
It wouldn’t surprise me to see Stuart somewhere else in 2020, with the Raiders going in a different direction after another long season, which will see them maybe start okay in front of the home faithful, but then struggle.
15th. Long winter ahead for the Canberra faithful.
Be sure to tune in on Monday as we move one more spot up the ladder.
MadgicSH
Roar Rookie
Another hilarious misread of the facts, completely shot down in flames by the results in the first four rounds. Love your "experts"!
DingoGray
Roar Guru
Another year another Raiders preview predicting bottom couple finish..... If you look at the Raiders history a better prediction would be just to land them at 10. They generally won't finish more than 1 or two places higher, but also no lower than 1 or two places. I think where they might be more consistent this year is with their defence. No more Austin turnstyle at 5/8. Slightly less size in the paddock so hopefully not so much of leaking points late in games. I'll stick with we entertain the masses with our attack but still find away to just miss the finals.... About the same as last year....and the year before that....
Leon Bedington
Guest
Wriiten like a true Sydneysider. You oviously haven't seen anything of the Raiders squad this year or know anything about emerging players. Or, the fact that Ata Hingano has only just resumed training after a serious operation, or the fact that Jack Wighton is moving to five-eighth, or the recruitment of Nicoll-Klokstadt from the Warriors . I could go on. Every year Sydney-centric opinion writes off the Raiders as favourites for the wooden spoon or thereabouts and it never happens. Granted they lost matches they should have won, but if only half of the games they lost last year bu six points or less went their way they would have been top four. Probably no premiership this year, but top eight is there and a lot of teams will get a big surprise, especially if they listen to reviews like this one.
SeeBee101
Guest
You lost me in this article as soon as you mentioned Hingano and Luke Bateman in the starting 17. Absolutely clueless in regards to the direction the Raiders are heading in. I suggest you review all of your articles to ensure that they are up to date... Wighton will start at 5/8, CHK will start at FB and Tapine won't be anywhere near the bench. As for where we end up, i'm hopeful as to where we end up but I will concede we may 'just' miss the 8 again - 9-12 position. There is no way we end up 15th.....
leftcurlyrightcurly
Roar Rookie
Thats right. Hes been training there for ages. The raiders can score but must defend better and win games through the forwards. Paulo and Boyd leaving mean nothing to me (as someone who watched them week in week out at Canberra stadium). Paulo didnt do much in the trial last night. Should he have?
Larry1950
Guest
Yep Tim, that's what those guys outside the pub said too. Seriously though, not sure what to make of the raiders, going from big to mobile in the pack seems to be the trend but the jury will be out on the new Pom forwards until 5 or 6 rounds in. Sezer has been around long enough to suggest there's probably not much improvement in his game and Wighton, although a speedy & hard runner, lacks a bit in the finesse & passing requirements of the game. Also not convinced he has the vision needed for 5/8. As for the comments about guys they've lost like Vaughan & TPJ, don't forget Anthony Milford as well. He'd add something to their attack but that's history now. I reckon around 11th to 13th.
peeeko
Roar Guru
Tpine and Williams will be starters for sure
James Ditchfield
Roar Rookie
Well Vaughan and TPJ were who I had in mind, as well as Blake Austin. Yes, they're recruiting strategy is sound, but they still need another player in the squad who can single handedly win them a game if need be. But you're correct in stating that Canberra isn't really enticing enough to attract those types of players. It's just somewhat disappointing given the club's extraordinary success in their early 90's heyday. The club and its fans deserve some success and silverware, but they won't get it anytime soon given their current position I'm afraid.
Geoff from Bruce Stadium
Roar Rookie
Marquee players are never going to go to Canberra James so all that sort of talk is just pointless. Canberra hardly offers a glamorous lifestyle. Shaun Johnson is a case in point – you’d think he would be the perfect fit for the problem perceived in the halves but he ended up going to the Sharks and the Sydney beaches lifestyle. To be fair the Raiders probably couldn’t afford Johnson’s price tag and the Sharks had plenty of cash following the bail out of Valentine Holmes to pursue an NFL career. And lets face it there aren’t a lot of marquee players out there. I think the Raiders recruitment strategy of targeting quality English players (Hodgson, Whitehead, Bateman and Sutton) and picking up players they think can fill a role (Rapana, BJ Leilua, Austin, Sezer, Paulo, Tapine etc) has been pretty successful in recent years. And not sure who the young guns are who the Raiders have lost. Carney and Dugan left ages ago but they were sacked for disciplinary reasons. But letting Vaughan and TPJ go were huge mistakes – Ricky got it very wrong there.
James Ditchfield
Roar Rookie
Once again the Raiders are a bit of a dark horse going into this year's comp. They could either be surprise packets or completely disappointing, but at the end of the day I think your prediction is pretty much spot on. Their off-season recruitment was pretty lacklustre, and has been for some time. They really need a big-name signing in the future not only to bolster their playing ranks, but also to entice marquee players to head to the nation's capital as well. Marquee players just don't seem too keen on heading to Canberra, and that needs to change if they want any chance of winning a Premiership in the future. They've also lost too many young guns in recent years. They really need to start focusing on the long-term. It's amazing that they haven't been fixtures at the bottom of the ladder.
Ron Norton
Roar Rookie
You wouldn't have a clue. There are so many errors in this story it is unbelievable. Get your facts straight before making so many outlandish comments. How long is it since you spoke to someone - anyone - in the Raiders camp to check where the club is heading and where players will be lining up in the first 17 in 2019? Some months is my guess.
Sham
Roar Rookie
Many of the comments on the story are on the money. The Raiders have had an issue with defence not attack and the changes are designed to address that. Boyd and Paulo would occasionally pump out big metres but they could not stay on the field long which in turn made the other players stay on longer. It is hard to manage your rotation when you have two huge forwards who cannot play big minutes. Not only that, both of them, could be caught out in defence as their lateral movement is not the best and neither of them is exactly fast. They are good players but I think that their loss will improve Raider’s defence. As for the claim that the Raiders need to improve their attitude in defence I think that this is wrong. Last year the Raiders has real defensive issues on the edges and Blake Austin was part of this. He does not have a ‘poor attitude’ he just made poor reads often close to the line. The other players did try to scramble to help which shows a good ‘attitude’ but they couldn’t do much as misreads close to the line result in tries. It is sometimes asserted that defence is all about attitude. While there is some truth to this defence is not just about attitude. If it was all about attitude, then why do we need defensive structures and coaches? Maybe teams should employ psychologists to improve the teams ‘attitude’. Sure you make poor reads and you are just too small but your main problem is your ‘attitude’. I guess poor defenders just have a poor ‘attitude’. Nonsense some players are just poor defenders. As for mistakes you have to defend your mistakes. The good teams can indeed the best teams can afford to deliberately give penalties as they can defend them. If your defence is so poor that you cannot defend the odd mistake, then you are lost. Last year the Raiders conceded a lot of really soft tries this is why they lost so many close games. Attitude may have something to do with this but a lot of it was tiring big forwards and very poor reads on the edges.
Rob
Guest
Boyd and Paulo are liabilities. Them leaving should be considering under "gains" for the Raiders.
Albo
Roar Rookie
Spot on Souvalis ! Joe Tapine should the first forward picked in that side. I like him for the 13 spot in a role played like Sam Burgess. Their pommie backrowers Whitehead & John Bateman are the other key forwards for mine. Papalii will have his moments . But it is in their spine, particularly the halves, that will make or break their season. Combining with focal point player Hodgson, the proposed Sezer / Wighton combination really worries me as to whether they can even keep up with the play ? Wighton has never impressed me with any ball skills though he is a damaging runner from fullback and is defensively strong. Sezer has a pretty good kicking game , but offers little more. Abbey has potential as a fullback , if Wighton does go to 6. If they go for Hingano or Williams over Wighton in the halves , I would be even more worried. As for the outside backs , they will miss their star Rapana for the first half of the season ( impacting the whole Leipana combination) and Cotric is another star, but can spend games never rarely touching the ball thanks to the issues inside of him . Croker is reliable and a great goal kicker, whilst Leilua is a mix of brilliant and awful from half to half. I would be surprised if this squad can make the 8 this year.
Scott Pryde
Expert
Right - my bad.
Matt H
Roar Guru
I hope so, as I said it's worth the punt, but if they put anyone but Cotric at the back then what's the point. He is one of the most damaging runners in the game, he need to see more ball.
DP Schaefer
Roar Rookie
15th?? That’s a big call Scott, you can cement an awesome reputation if this one comes through. They are an interesting kettle of fish this lot, and one of the biggest unknowns in my book. I’m with The Barry on this one, while they could flunk – they could also easily land anywhere from 6 – 8/10.
Tim Gore
Expert
No, it’s been in the works for months.
Tim Gore
Expert
Let’s put it this way: anyone who targets him risks getting badly hurt. He reads well and hits hard
Matt H
Roar Guru
How do we know Wighton will be better in defence? how long is it since he's played a full season in the front line? I think it's worth the punt anyway, if nothing else it will get your best player more involved - no not Wighton, but it should move Cotric to fullback.