Predicting the 2019 NRL premiers before a ball is kicked

By Tim Gore / Expert

With three weeks until the 2019 NRL season starts, many of us are filled with hope that our team will do really well. Maybe they’ll even challenge for the premiership.

Maybe – just maybe – they’ll even win.

Here’s the cold reality, people: By Round 6, up to four sides will already have bugger-all chance of making the finals, and by Round 10 we’ll be able to narrow the actual premiership contenders down to just six.

And here’s the really hot, steaming pile of reality: those six contenders will most likely be heavily stocked with the usual contenders, and odds are one of those sides will win the premiership.

As an effective tool for ensuring the competition is on a level playing field, the NRL’s salary cap is equivalent to mammary glands on the masculine bovine. Everyone knows it. I strongly suspect NRL HQ knows it too.

Just look at these stats.

Rank Team Premierships Grand final appearances Wooden spoons Finals appearances
1 Storm 5 9 1 17
2 Roosters 3 7 1 15
3 Broncos 3 4 0 19
4 Sea Eagles 2 4 0 11
5 Bulldogs 1 4 2 13
6 Cowboys 1 3 1 10
7 Dragons 1 2 0 12
8 Sharks 1 1 1 12
9 Knights 1 1 4 9
10 Panthers 1 1 2 8
11 Rabbitohs 1 1 3 6
12 Wests Tigers 1 1 0 3
13 Eels 0 2 3 10
14 Warriors 0 2 0 8
15 Raiders 0 0 0 10
16 Titans 0 0 1 3

To extrapolate:
• 13 of the possible 21 NRL premierships (62 per cent) have been won by just four sides.
• 28 of the possible 42 NRL grand final berths (66.66 per cent) have been taken by just five sides (31.25 per cent).
• 16 of the possible 42 NRL grand final berths (38 per cent) have been taken by just two sides.
• Ten of the possible 21 NRL wooden spoons (47.6 per cent) have been taken by just three sides.

The only people who think this state of affairs is just fine and dandy – and who even have the gall to try to justify and defend it – are Storm and Roosters fans, and to a lesser extent Broncos, Sea Eagles and Bulldogs supporters.

With these facts in mind, let’s turn our minds to which sides are most likely to win the 2019 premiership.

To do that, we need to examine each of the 21 NRL premiers to see how they built up over previous seasons.

Year Premiers Recent premierships Finals appearances in previous five years
2018 Roosters 2013 All except 2016, preliminary finalists in 2017, 2015 and 2014
2017 Storm 2012 All five, runners up 2016, 2015 preliminary final
2016 Sharks Nil 2015, 2013, 2012
2015 Cowboys Nil Previous four seasons
2014 Rabbitohs Pil Preliminary finals 2013 and 2012
2013 Roosters Nil Runners up 2010
2012 Storm 2009, 2007 All five seasons except 2010. 2011 preliminary final
2011 Sea Eagles 2008 All seasons back to 2005. Runners up 2007
2010 Dragons Nil 2009, 2008, preliminary finals 2006 and 2005
2009 Storm 2007 Runners up 2008 and 2006. Semi-finals 2005, 2004, 2003
2008 Sea Eagles Nil 2007 runners up, 2006, 2005
2007 Storm Nil 2006 runners up. Semi-finals 2005, 2004, 2003
2006 Broncos 2000 Preliminary finals 2001 and 2002. 2003, 2004, 2005
2005 Wests Tigers Nil Nil
2004 Bulldogs Nil 2003 preliminary final, 2001, 1999
2003 Panthers Nil 2000
2002 Roosters Nil 2000 Runners up. 2001, 1999, 1998 preliminary final
2001 Knights 1997* Preliminary finals 2000 and 1998. 1999
2000 Broncos 1998, 1997* 1999, 1996, 1995
1999 Storm Nil 1998
1998 Broncos 1997*, 1993, 1992 1996, 1995, 1994

*Split competition

To extrapolate from these figures:
• Seven of the 21 premiers were runners up within the previous five seasons (33.3 per cent)
• Nine of the 21 premiers were preliminary finalists within the previous five seasons (42.85 per cent)
• 11 of the 21 premiers had won a premiership within the previous five seasons (52.4 per cent)
• 18 of the 21 premiers played in the finals the previous season (85.7 per cent)

We can almost certainly rule out all of the sides that missed the 2018 finals, so things look grim for the Sea Eagles, Titans, Knights and Wests Tigers. Let’s draw a line through them.

The Cowboys, Eels, Bulldogs and Raiders might still be a chance because they’ve each either played in a grand final at least a preliminary final within the past five seasons. However, in reality, only North Queensland are really a good chance as they’ve been in a couple of grand finals in that time.

While they were finalists in 2018, neither the Warriors nor Dragons have played in so much as a preliminary final in the last five seasons, so we’ll cut them.

The Panthers haven’t played in a preliminary final since 2014 so we will draw a line through them too.

That leaves us with these six sides:
• Sharks
• Broncos
• Cowboys
• Rabbitohs
• Storm
• Roosters

So what are their actual chances?

Sharks
Turmoil. It seems Cronulla are always in turmoil. Shane Flanagan is gone, replaced by John Morris, and they’ve lost some good players in Jesse Ramien (Knights), Ricky Leutele (Toronto Wolfpack) and Luke Lewis (retirement). However, the loss of Valentine Holmes is what really hurts, although the pick-up of Shaun Johnson may be equally good.

However, if the rumours are true that there are serious cap issues and they have to shed players, then it is highly doubtful that they’ll be serious contenders in 2019.

Cowboys
The $10 million question is how will they go without Johnathan Thurston? They’ve picked up some handy players in Nene Macdonald (Dragons), Tom Opacic (Broncos) and Kurt Baptiste (Roosters), and they’ve drafted in Jordan Kahu to fill the hole left by Ben Barba.

Michael Morgan and Jason Taumololo are superstars – however, they’ll need to be. Thurston was a pretty good player and leaves a huge hole. I’m not sure North Queensland can challenge this season.

Jason Taumalolo (Photo by Cameron Spencer/Getty Images)

Storm
The only finals the Storm have missed since 2003 was in 2010, when they were excluded for massive systematic salary cap cheating. They have not only taken part in 14 of the past 15 series, they’ve also been in eight of the last 15 grand finals, including the last three straight.

But they’ve lost Tim Glasby (Knights), Billy Slater (retirement), Ryan Hoffman (retirement) and Ryley Jacks (Titans). I’m calling it early but the dynasty may finally be over. I don’t reckon they’ll make this year’s grand final.

Rabbitohs
The Cardinal and Myrtle have a good looking list and a new coach. Angus Crichton is a big loss but it’s not the end of the world, especially if the Burgii repeat last year’s efforts.

Adam Reynolds is a gun half and Greg Inglis is in rare form. It is not beyond them by any means but I’m not convinced.

Broncos
They’ve been pretty quiet since losing the 2015 decider in extra time, however Brisbane are a good chance this season.

I’ve got no great explanation for that. Just a vibe. They’ve neither lost that much nor picked up anything wonderful in player terms, but it’s the Broncos. If they click they’ll go a long way. Maybe Anthony Seibold can make that happen?

Roosters
The 2018 premiers have managed their cap brilliantly again. Their only significant loss was Blake Ferguson – and Dylan Napa, I guess, but his defence is suspect – while they picked up some A-grade cattle in Angus Crichton (Rabbitohs), Ryan Hall (Leeds), Brett Morris (Bulldogs) and Brock Lamb (Knights).

Their pack and backs are really strong. The only negative I can see is that there hasn’t been a genuine back-to-back premier since the Broncos in 1993. Trent Robinson’s men may well be the ones to break that streak.

Barring serious misfortune I’m picking the Roosters to be the 2019 champions.

The Crowd Says:

2019-02-23T05:22:26+00:00

Superspud

Roar Rookie


Ah yes the list of mistakes. When the 50 50 calls go our way they are fair enough. When they go against us they are mistakes. I can say with certainty that had it been the Roosters on the receiving end of the "obvious " penalty try it would've made the list of mistakes. To say that the refs cheat to ensure certain teams win is offensive and ignores the microscope of reality

2019-02-22T14:39:06+00:00

JN

Guest


Maloney was bought by the roosters in late 2011, before you could even consider him a marquee player. I’ve also read that article, and Matthews Johns ‘calculated’ that for 2015’s team. Nothing of significance was mentioned about 2013. You seem to so obsessed with the roosters. It’s ridiculous

2019-02-22T12:40:01+00:00

Forty Twenty

Roar Rookie


My comment disappeared but basically , it wasn't the refs call , it was an obvious penalty try as the ball bounced perfectly for Lyon. For whatever reason, the refs hammered Manly in the game and I've seen plenty of fans from other clubs say that as well. The list of mistakes is much bigger than I remember.

2019-02-22T12:12:17+00:00

Forty Twenty

Roar Rookie


The bunker made that ruling and it was correct. The rule is misquoted all the time. If the bunker thought Lyon would have scored except for the illegal action then they need to award award a try. It has nothing to do with being certain of anything , it is based on an opinion. As I said I think the refs were incompetent not corrupt but they sure as hell seemed bias in that game.

2019-02-22T11:32:48+00:00

Superspud

Roar Rookie


Pretty cynical thinking I reckon. The NRL has not had back to back premiers for 30 years. When you apply the same microscope to any professional sport in the world it comes up the same. Soccer is played in 198 countries in the world but only six of them can win the world cup. In the NFL teams like Detroit, Buffalo, Cincinatti, Cleveland, Jets and several others virtually never compete for playoffs. Are you suggesting that we penalise teams that do well so the teams that are poorly run can compete? The fact is that in every competition in every sport there are good teams and not so good ones. It is the not so good ones job to improve and the good ones job to stay where they are.

2019-02-22T11:17:18+00:00

Superspud

Roar Rookie


Ummm Penalty try when the ball wasn't even in the in goal when Lyon was pulled down. And that was at a crucial moment in the 13 grand final. If it was the refs job to get the Roosters home I don't think they're giving that.

2019-02-22T01:00:43+00:00

matth

Roar Guru


Tim, basically I think your philosophy is more rugby league socialist than mine. Having a completely even competition is a noble pursuit but actually impossible to achieve. There will always be better sides than others, better run franchises, richer areas, areas with better junior numbers, sides with better recruitment processes, etc. And in some ways having rich successful clubs helps a competition. Those clubs are the ones that get attention outside the sport, bring casual fans in and they also give other teams in the competition a benchmark to aspire to as well as a team to hate. But also I wonder if you go back through those premiership winners, how many are there where the 1% that at the end of the day made them premiership winners were things that you just cannot even out in a competition. For example, Newcastle won in 2001 for one reason and one reason only - Andrew Johns. Sure they had other great players and a good culture, etc,etc, but no Johns, no premiership. Now you cannot produce another 15 Andrew Johns and hand them out to the other clubs. You cannot force Johns to play a year with each club in turn to give them a chance to have an Andrew Johns. Newcastle did not breach the cap or anything to buy a ready made Andrew Johns. He was just a once in a generation freak of footballing nature that happened to grow up in Newcastle. Brisbane's third premiership in your timeline was 2006. Darren Lockyer. no Lockyer, no premiership. Lockyer came to the Broncos as a teenager out of Roma. He was not poached with the full force of the Broncos finances. What I'm trying to say is that often the premiership is because some once in a generation players happen to turn up at a club and the rest is history. Parramatta - Cronin, Price, Kenny, Ella, Grothe Canberra - Stuart, Daley, Clyde, Meninga, Belcher Brisbane - Langer, Walters and Renouf Manly - the Stewart brothers, Watmough, Jamie Lyon Melbourne - Cronk, Slater and Smith Cowboys - JT and Scott Wests- Benji, Farah and Scott Prince Do you see the pattern there? these were not superstars purchased as seasoned premiership winnings internationals from other clubs. In most cases lightning just struck and an exceptional player or two found themselves growing up at a particular club. So I think what I'm trying to say is: 1. there is some inequality, but unless you are going to have a fake comp with a central pool of players allocated to clubs each year, there will always be inequality 2. Good running of a club and quality front office is as much a factor as these alleged monetary inequalities 3. sometimes, you just get a good one or two come through.

2019-02-22T00:48:05+00:00

matth

Roar Guru


Gee I hate typing on phones, that post sounds like I dictated it underwater.

2019-02-22T00:18:51+00:00

Harvey Wilson

Roar Rookie


I hope the Roosters dont win, but it seems more likely than other teams. Dont discount the Panthers though.

2019-02-21T23:28:02+00:00

bazza200

Roar Rookie


They lost thier top meter returner in fergo. That is a loss they had him cheap

2019-02-21T23:21:58+00:00

bazza200

Roar Rookie


Go parra :)

2019-02-21T21:35:45+00:00

matth

Roar Guru


Statistics, got to love em. One stat from above that you failed to mention is that 75% of teams have won a flag since 1998. Show any other professional completion on the planet can say that, particularly with 16 teams. And if go back another 12 years then two of the four who miss out won multiple flags. One that most basic of measures rugby league might well be the most even competition in the world.

2019-02-21T21:32:23+00:00

Walter Penninger

Roar Guru


You could have just pulled a name out of a hat. Dragons have been a team hampered by poor coaching since Bennett's departure but McGregor has been slowly learning and the team is ready De Belin or no De Belin.

2019-02-21T14:37:02+00:00

Mick Jeffrey

Roar Rookie


Yep, $500k to play for Catalans!

2019-02-21T13:07:40+00:00

Gargamel

Guest


Are you so incapable of formIng your own opinion that your sources are just unsubstantiated comments in public forums from people you most likely haven’t met (unless they are just your split personalities)? Time to round up the sheep for sheering.

2019-02-21T12:16:23+00:00

a

Roar Rookie


So I think the Rabbitohs will win and here's why 2 years before the Rabbitohs won I. 2014 2012 Storm 2013 Roosters 2014 Rabbitohs 2015 Cowboys 2016 Sharks 2017 Storm 2018 Roosters Witch means 2019 Rabbitohs 2020 Cowboys 2021 Sharks

2019-02-21T11:58:28+00:00

Forty Twenty

Roar Rookie


You have left out the most important stat of all Tim. Only one team will have the Viking Clapping rogue to show them how to be mean and clever. The Raiders are near certainties. Can't wait to see the Menace and Sticky on the sideline together showing big Joey how to be clever.

2019-02-21T11:46:09+00:00

Drew Lawrence

Roar Rookie


Relax mate, the only people that wouldn’t what that gf are non Cowboys and Rabbits fans just like every other gf

2019-02-21T11:44:43+00:00

Drew Lawrence

Roar Rookie


He’d probably be ecstatic knowing it’s a win/win situation.

2019-02-21T11:41:36+00:00

Drew Lawrence

Roar Rookie


Don’t remember any protests marches in Qld, normally protesters are bashed and locked up, so probably nothing has changed. It’s depends where in Qld you lived. There certain things that are ok in Brisbane that you wouldn’t dare do in Townsville, etc

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