“The past is a foreign country. They do things differently there.”
So the saying goes. And in the case of the Western Bulldogs, it’s certainly the truth. The dizzy heights of the 2016 premiership seem like yesterday in some respects, but a long time ago in others.
The Dogs kick-started the current trend of surprise flag winners, the first of three in a row. Prior to that we saw Hawthorn and Geelong share seven of the previous nine premierships, with perennial contenders and top-four finishers Sydney and Collingwood snaring the other two.
Since the flag, the Dogs are the first club this century to miss the finals in the two years subsequent to winning one. Whether through accident or design, it’s almost as if they started a rebuild immediately after.
15 of the Bulldogs premiership team is still on the list, but only 12 have made the best 22 below.
B: E.Wood Z.Cordy E.Richards
HB: B.Williams A.Naughton M.Suckling
C: J.Dunkley M.Bontempelli L.Hunter
HF: M.Wallis B.Gowers T.McLean
F: C.Daniel J.Schache S.Lloyd
Foll: T.Boyd J.Macrae T.Liberatore
Int: H.Crozier J.Johannisen D.Morris J.Trengove
Em: T.Duryea T.English P.Lipinski
The Dogs are a hard team to nail down a positional 22 for, given Luke Beveridge’s penchant for moving players around.
Beveridge appears to have an obsession with flexibility, while critics would call it instability. What an embarrassment it was to see Easton Wood, one of the best defensive interceptors in the game, flail around the forward line early last year. And to emasculate your captain like that was bordering on insanity.
Luke Beveridge, Senior Coach of the Bulldogs (Photo by Adam Trafford/AFL Media/Getty Images)
What the Dogs do have is a team of mid-sized runners, and this is even after losing the likes of Luke Dahlhaus and Jake Stringer to trades, and Shayne Biggs and Clay Smith to early retirements in the last couple of seasons. They have very few specialist position players among this brigade, complemented by a group of talls that all have their limitations in one way or another.
After just one season, Aaron Naughton looks like being the best of these, and it’s something of an affront that he didn’t poll any Rising Star votes last year. He was manful down back as an 18-year-old, and finished the season particularly strong.
Josh Schache showed more promise than he did at Brisbane, but that may just be a by-product of more experience. High draft picks are harshly judged, and the lack of obvious intent in the way he plays the game doesn’t help sway the critics, but he is still a development player.
Tom Boyd is the nominal ruckman, but hasn’t approached anywhere near the heights of his magnificent grand final performance in 2016. He’s had his issues, both physical and mental, and is currently on ice with a back injury. Tim English moves well for a young ruckman and should get more games if he can stay fit. He plays with an intensity that Schache does not.
Zaine Cordy is a just a player, but is also young enough to become something more. Jackson Trengove’s best work at Port was as a centre-half back, but was asked to play in all areas of the ground in his first year at the Dogs – Beveridge once again incapable of settling a player in a position.
If the Bulldogs are going to contend for finals once more, it will be off the back of their ball-winners and play-makers.
Tom Liberatore will be welcomed back after doing his knee in the first quarter of Round 1 last year. Clearances weren’t a problem at the Dogs last year, ranked second in the competition, but scoring from them was, ranked 12th.
Western Bulldogs Tom Liberatore drives his team in to attack. (AAP Image/Mark Dadswell)
In Libba’s absence, Jack Macrae became far more of an inside player, so may go back to a more outside game. He has always been able to rack up big numbers, but whether his team gets the most bang for their buck through him is the question.
Lachie Hunter is the pure wingman of the team, also gets a lot of the ball, and has a handy knack of finding a pocket of space forward of the ball.
Toby McLean and Josh Dunkley are the resident hard nuts who both made gains last year, even as their team went backwards. Dunkley is a great size for a midfielder, and uses that to his advantage when in the forward-line. Once he got his midfield chance in the second half of the year, he took it.
Mitch Wallis is one that has possibly become a bit marginalised with the rise of McLean and Dunkley, but is both consistent and clever.
Marcus Bontempelli is the superstar of the midfield, and we’ll see him written about later in the week as part of The Roar’s Top 50. His is by far the most damaging and creative player on the Bulldogs list, but spent too much time deep forward in losing teams last year.
Marcus Bontempelli. (AAP Image/Julian Smith)
It’s always a hard balance to strike when you’ve got a player that is a gun both forward and in the middle, and the Dogs do have trouble kicking goals.
The Bont does help with that, kicking multiples eight times last season. But he can create more goals sending the ball inside 50 on angles no-one else can see; better that than cooling his heels in the goal-square for five minutes at a time with the ball nowhere to be seen.
The Dogs have beaten one top eight side in their last 35 matches. Bontempelli is a weapon that can help them do it if Beveridge can get the balance right.
The return of Matthew Suckling will help the Dogs’ ball movement from the back half. Ed Richards, like Naughton, was outstanding in his debut season and has a touch of magic.
Sam Lloyd was brought across from Richmond to add to the mix of players that can rotate through the middle and forward, not that there was a shortage.
Bailey Williams started to hit his straps as a rebounding defender, so of course Beveridge threw him forward late last year. Jason Johannisen is another that has been moved around, despite his clear best footy coming as a running halfback.
Caleb Daniel is the best decision-maker at the Dogs, or at least on par with Bontempelli. The more the ball is in his hands, the better off they are. Hayden Crozier had the best year of his career after six years at Fremantle where he never quite found his niche.
The Western Bulldogs won the 2016 flag with their versatility, but the further time goes on the clearer it becomes that they clicked and rode a hot streak for a four week period that just happened to coincide with finals.
This is not to denigrate their 15-win 2016, only two less than top placed Sydney, or their achievement. They were defensively outstanding that season, but found their attacking game in September.
Richmond in 2017 and West Coast in 2018 were also surprise premiers, but both teams did so off the back of clearly defined roles for individuals and structures within the team. If backing in something for the long term, this method seems more sustainable than Beveridge’s constant swapping and changing.
The Dogs were a young side winning the flag, and are still a young side now. There is too much against them when it comes to making a push for finals once more.
Prediction: 14th
Preview series
14.Western Bulldogs
15.St Kilda
16.Fremantle
17.Carlton
18.Gold Coast
Pumping Dougie
Roar Guru
I agree with you partially Macca. Clearances will be pivotal, but with Libber back and Bont returning to the midfield for more time, I think we'll win our fair share of centre clearances. I expect the 6-6-6 rule and kick-in rule should result in less congestion, quicker transfer of play and more space. I think this will benefit strong one-on-one players (which we lack) and fast players (which we have an abundance of). I hope our lightly framed, young bodies will be less of an issue if we're moving fast, the ball is moving fast and the opposition can't throw players behind the ball as easily.
Pumping Dougie
Roar Guru
Cheers Hairy Fat Man. New job 15 months ago has resulted in little opportunity to get online for me. I miss The Roar!
IAP
Guest
That'll be interesting. Teams who have players who can kick well will be able to spread the defence quickly. We might see the zones set up further up the ground, rather than flooding the defensive 50.
Macca
Roar Rookie
That will be an interesting one and I think you are probably right but reports from the Carlton Hawthorn practice match last week had both teams still going short. Seemingly they were happy to take the extra 10 metres but use the extra space that has been opened up to simply gain 25 m (putting the ball roughly 50m out) on a low risk kick. The fact this strategy allows an exit out of defensive without having to bomb to a contested situation and should allow the next kick to be hitting a player forward of 50 might mean that players like Hurn are used as the target for kick ins rather than taking the kick.
IAP
Guest
Getting rid of the goal square will have far greater consequences. That's made for players who can kick long and accurately; Shannon Hurn will benefit the most from that rule. For my boys, it will benefit Johannisen. As long as he can hit a target he'll get around most players on the mark and will be able to get the ball to the middle of the ground from the kick-in.
Macca
Roar Rookie
Doug I think you are wrong about the 6-6-6 rule. Given it only comes into play at centre bounces and teams will quickly revert back into the set ups we have seen ove the last couple of years I think it will favour the teams with high quality clearance players and strong marking forwards. Time will tell though.
Raimond
Roar Guru
As I was reading this article, I thought to myself, “Where’s Pumping Dougie these days?” Question answered.
Pumping Dougie
Roar Guru
Very fair article Cam, except for your predicted finish! Haha. I think the swapping players around was a product of two big factors: injuries and losing. I'd much rather a coach who tries different things to see if he can generate a different outcome. But acknowledge teams play well when they're predictable to each other. Bony was carrying a hip complaint for most of last season and has now had that operated on, so I hope to see him back in the midfield. Libby has always been critical to us, but it is probably asking too much to hope he can be pivotal again after his 2nd knee reco. English will become an AFL star, but not yet - we'll get annihilated in the ruck this year. We were younger and less experienced than our opponent in every round last year. I think the experienced gained will be valuable and I think the 6-6-6 rule change will help faster, lighter-framed sides like the Doggies. In Bevo we trust!
The Ghost
Guest
That is why Richmond backed our flag with a minor premiership. There was no hangover at Tigerland. This year we will win another flag.
Raimond
Roar Guru
I think it’s interesting how history defines the culture of a club. Clubs with a history of success will turn around and try to turn one Premiership into two, and two into three etc. You get the feeling that the Bulldogs got their drought-breaker, and then decided to put their cue in the rack.
Mac
Guest
Beveridge throws the team around due to injuries to key players. This was the case in 2016 as well. Astounding that they notched up 15 wins in 2016 with half their best 22 sitting on the sidelines throughout the year. With a charmed run, like Richmond in 2017, we'll get to see what this Bulldogs team are really capable of.
berrlins
Roar Pro
Bevridge has an annoying obsession with flexibility with his players that's borderline harmful to their development. Hopefully he shakes it off and let's them play to their strengths.
IAP
Guest
Fair point. I'm assuming that Trengove will swap into the ruck and that Cordy will play in the backline. Crozier will swap for the small backmen and Gowers will go through the forward line. I'd expect both Dunkley and Gowers to spend time on the ball. I agree entirely with your point about swapping the team around; it's been a frustration for Dogs supporters for the last couple of years, and I think it creates an unsettled team. Hopefully they'll be more settled this year. Bontempelli is their best player, and they need the ball in his hands. He should play in the centre all year.
Wayne Kerr
Guest
Let’s hope we win them, or at least put up a good performance that gives our fans hope for the future. The only way is up.
Cameron Rose
Expert
Yeah, Naughton and Richards look like two rippers. I think English is seen as a ruckman, but it's Beveridge we're talking about, so he'll probably play back pocket.
Cameron Rose
Expert
Time will tell I suppose. I don't trust either team to be honest, particularly the coaches.
Cameron Rose
Expert
I do think Freo has the worst of it of what I see as the bottom five or six sides, hence why I had them so low.
Davo
Guest
The bulldogs really nailed the draft last year as to me Aaron Naughton and Ed Richards look like future A graders. The key forward stocks would have to be just about the weakest in the AFL. Hopefully Tom English who shows promise can help in this area.
Macca
Roar Rookie
Mattician - based on Cam's best 22 the total number of games played by that 22 in 2018 for Carlton was 221, just over an average of 10 games per player. Even if you remove Williamson (being plagued by some mysterious back injury) and Stocker and replace them with Plowman and Cuningham you still only end up at 239 or just under 11 games. I think it is pretty safe to say last year will have no impact on this year.
Macca
Roar Rookie
I thought the blues were the Lions bunnies. Although at least this year we don't have to go to the Gabba, They do have a good record but I would still prefer the blues double up games to the Lions.