The team that Australia will take to the 2019 Cricket World Cup will be knocked out before the finals.
The stark truth is that only two sides – England and West Indies – are capable of making 400 multiple times in the tournament.
South Africa, New Zealand and India have line-ups that seem eminently capable of doing it and have frequently show the ability to comfortably make 350.
The Australian side picked in the last 18 months struggles tooth and nail to score 300, while the prospect of 400 remains out of sight for even the most one-eyed fan.
The side the selectors will pick is utterly incapable of scoring 350 regularly and has a very close to zero chance of scoring 400 at all.
Coming up against sides who will do so, it would be more sensible to pick a team who have the ability to put up mammoth totals and may fail, rather than picking a side who will be doing well to strike at 90-95 while struggling to make 300.
The side I would choose is a risk, but it is wiser to take a chance on the players who have a chance – however small it may be – to put up huge totals, rather than pick a side that extensive evidence suggests is incapable of scoring at the rate ODI cricket in 2019 demands.
My line-up is David Warner, Max Bryant, Steve Smith, Glenn Maxwell (captain), Matt Wade, Marcus Stoinis, Josh Philippe (wicketkeeper), Mitchell Starc, Pat Cummins, Adam Zampa and one of Nathan Lyon, Jason Behrendorff and Nathan Coulter-Nile. The two other members of the squad are D’Arcy Short and Ashton Turner.
(Photo by Robert Cianflone/Getty Images)
Notably Aaron Finch has been dropped from the side and Glenn Maxwell made captain.
Finch’s score in the third ODI against India felt like an aberration and his performance tonight in the fourth has proven it to be so.
Never before has a player been so comprehensively worked out and reliably dismissed the same way for such a long period of time.
Even during his innings of 93 two nights ago he was hit multiple times on the pads by balls angling in to him and he was incredibly lucky not to get out.
Tonight’s innings was just confirmation that the 93 was the exception to the rule with Finch again bowled by an admittedly excellent in-swinger.
As such, with leadership options sparse, Glenn Maxwell takes the captaincy. Maxwell was trusted by Kings XI Punjab to take the captaincy over Murali Vijay in the IPL and he is undoubtedly an astute cricketer.
This is somewhat of a risk and despite diminishing returns with the bat, Finch has been a strong captain.
The risk in appointing Maxwell is in line with the underlying premise of the squad – the current team does not have a sufficient chance of winning the tournament so we should take a risk on a team that might.
Warner and Smith both come back into the squad on the premise they perform in the warm-up games.
It is a difficult decision especially given they will not get the chance to play in the Pakistan series but assuming both begin where they left off, they should both be there.
Hopefully both come out with a point to prove, and unburdened by any weight of leadership roles – although the reality is they will be under enormous media, crowd and likely opponent verbal abuse throughout the tournament.
In the event they cannot perform, they should be replaced in the 11 by Short and Turner.
The inexperienced Bryant and Philippe have been picked for the combination of their versatility and striking ability.
Both have shown the ability to strike at extraordinary rates in T20 cricket, List A games and both have put in memorable performances against touring Test sides.
They are both exceptional talents and it is worth gambling on players with the ability to match it with the West Indies and England at their best.
The other controversial pick is Matt Wade but the numbers he has put up this year make an irrepressible case for selection.
Wade did not seem up to the task in his last stint in international cricket, but he has clearly done what has been asked of every cricketer who gets dropped from the Australian side: go back and make runs.
And he has made them in style, with 592 runs at a strike rate of 147 in the BBL to go with 750 runs at an average of 57.7 in the Sheffield Shield shows a batsman capable of batting in every gear for reasonable lengths of time.
Wade is at his peak and a far stronger batsman than the last time he played for Australia.
The bowling attack is unlikely to cause any controversy, the only real question being whether one or two spinners are played and that should be chosen according to conditions.
The fast bowlers should be rotated out depending on form and injury with Pat Cummins probably the only certainty and Mitchell Starc hopefully capable of rapidly bowling himself into the form he maintained throughout the 2015 World Cup.
This will likely be a controversial team selection but we should gamble on a team that has a significant chance of scoring big, rather than a team relying on outdated tactics and exceptional bowling every game.
Josh H
Roar Rookie
I'm going off WA's past choices, champ, and they've played both Whiteman and Bancroft as keepers in previous years and I don't remember too many times they've picked Philippe as one when any of those 3 are in the side. In any case, however, Philippe is not a strong gloveman at all (at least, not yet). I watched him drop a number of really regulation catches in the BBL this season, including a sitter from a top edge against the Hurricanes in Hobart. If he can't handle the pressure of domestic cricket, he'll have no chance in the game's biggest international tournament playing for his country.
Doctor Rotcod
Roar Rookie
Phillippe behind Bancroft, Inglis and Whiteman? Whiteman is re-inventing himself as a batsman, Inglis and Phillippe on a par, Bancroft a little behind
Josh H
Roar Rookie
Boyce no longer has a state contract and is now studying to become a school teacher, so I can't see that happening Zampa's basically monopolised the spinner's position anyway, so fair to say that Boyce is well off the radar
dungerBob
Roar Rookie
It just goes to show the importance of the bowlers. I've always thought the best defence against those really big scores is to bowl them out so they can't make them in the first place.
dungerBob
Roar Rookie
Aha, so that's the problem !! Yes, an editing icon would be fairly obvious but if it's not there anymore, well.
Jon Richardson
Roar Pro
The strategy of going for broke by picking some of the fastest scoring batsman is worth thinking about, but the logic of picking on the basis of T20s is faulty. A couple of rapid 50s is all very well, but you also need batsmen that can score really big runs, at a good rate, if you are going to nudge 350. Like Handscomb did the other night, and batsmen like Warner, Marsh have Smith have achieved. Darcy Short is one batsman who has shown ability to make big and fast scores in the 50 over game, but sadly he is out of favour. I don’t mind having him in the squad, but let’s not get carried away: he not only has a mediocre average in all domestic and international 50 over cricket (31) but his strike rate is no better than those achieved by Marsh, Khawaja or Handscomb in international ODIs! If you’re picking Wade, or Philippe, on the back of BBL form, you might recall that Shaun Marsh is actually a gun T20 player, with not only a much higher average across all T20 matches (39 vs 26) but the same strike rate (129) while batting almost always at the top of the order. And a lot of them in a tougher competition (the IPL or internationals). His 96 not out off 55 for the Scorchers in January was as good as anything by Wade in the BBL, or by Turner for that matter. Add to that the fact Marsh was head and shoulders the best batsman in the team in the last three ODI series (India, South Africa and England) with the best record of any of the current team, or Warner or Smith, in ODIs in England, I’m struggling to see why you would drop him for players who have a good T20 record, but no better than Marsh’s! Unless it’s because his name is Marsh, and he has underperformed in Tests, which is completely irrelevant. As for Bryant, he made one only score over in the BBL. The odd quick fire 20 or 30 isn’t enough in the 50 over game. Also worth noting that West Indies have NEVER scored over 400 in an ODI so the likelihood of them doing it in the World Cup once, let alone multiple times, is not high! Sure, England have done so – five times, at the rate of one a year from 2015, so multiple times in one tournament seems a big ask. In fact the Windies have only ever scored 350 or more done 5 times in history, and England 15, so maybe 320-330 is a more realistic yardstick for really big scores. When England flogged Australia for 418 at Nottingham last year, our bowling attack was Stanlake, J Richardson, Agar, Tye and Stoinis, which underlines the importance of bowling. That was the ONLY time England have scored over 350 against Australia, and the only other time they’ve scored over 340 was also last year against virtually the same attack, with Kane Richardson instead of Stanlake. In fact, outside of that series last year against our second string attack, England have only ever scored more than 305 TWICE against Australia, in 2014 and in Sydney last year. So another reason not to panic about needing extreme run rates.
Don Freo
Roar Rookie
That explains the article! The editing pencil has gone.
stepheno
Roar Rookie
We could ask Ian Healy. On Foxsports he did not have Maxwell in the squad. Put him out to pasture.
Carlin
Roar Rookie
Has anyone ever considered Cameron Boyce for the One Day team? He was the most accurate spinner in the BBL. Bowls with great control. Surprised he hasn't been given more opportunity at the higher level.
Chris Kettlewell
Roar Guru
Sorry, but Warner will 100% be welcomed back into the squad by the other players. Whoever misses out because of his return will be a bit disappointed, but it's clear from all reactions to come from the players that they seem to be hanging for the return of their two best batsmen. The idea that there's friction between Warner and the other players and they wouldn't want him there is a complete myth not supported by any real evidence.
Ronan O'Connell
Expert
Pooran has scored 0 runs in his entire ODI career. Russell has played 1 ODI since 2015. Lewis is not even getting a game for the Windies. If these guys are key reasons you think the Windies can make 400 "multiple times" in the World Cup then, well...
dungerBob
Roar Rookie
England are a side that can make huge scores but my only question is, is it at the expense of their bowling? So many all-rounders might seem to be all beer and skittles when they're batting but it might not be such a great thing when they desperately need wickets. .. Just a thought.
dungerBob
Roar Rookie
No offence mate, but that's good to hear. I'm pleased I'm not the only idiot :)
Pope Paul VII
Roar Rookie
lol me either!
dungerBob
Roar Rookie
This is completely unrelated to the article but can someone please tell me how I go about editing my own posts. It says "Comments can be edited up to 45 minutes after posting" but for the life of me I can't work out how to do it.
dungerBob
Roar Rookie
I'm actually hoping that Englands batting depth ends up working against them. What I mean by that is that they seem to be picking their bowlers with half an eye on how well they can bat. Guys like Ali, Stokes, Woakes and Curran are in their team nearly as much for their batting as their bowling. I'm no expert on English cricket (hell, I'm no expert on Aussie cricket either when it gets down to it) but I am told by some pommy friends that there are better pure bowlers in England than those fella's. If that's truly the case I remain optimistic it could come back to bite them when the whips truly get cracking.
Steve Franklin
Roar Rookie
Finch has got to go, Marsh has to go before Finch neither of them can bat, and that bowler who bowls nothing but short crap and gets slugged all round the ground has to go also, whoever tells him to bowl that rubbish is an idiot. Richardson is his name, young man you need to bowl at the stumps and their legs not at their heads or short outside off or leg stump cause as you found out in the game last night it's going to be 4 or 6 everytime.
Steve Franklin
Roar Rookie
I would like to know out of Smith and Warner who is going to have the sandpaper down their pants.
dungerBob
Roar Rookie
That side you've picked isn't so far off what might actually take the field tbh. I think the bowling is pretty much right, no surprises there, so it's just a few left field choices in the batting. I think a slightly more likely scenario would be Khawaja or Short in for Bryant. Phillipe is one for the future (like Bryant) so either Handscombe or Wade for the w/k job but the selectors seem to have their hearts set on Carey who I am in no way sold on. Whether they can make 400 or not is open to conjecture but I think they'll do better than most of us expect.
RogerTA
Roar Rookie
TBF Chris, the last 2 matches are complete abberations (for Oz) over the last 18 months. We haven’t been able to successfully chase a 1 legged emu in that time.