Friday night footy is back, and we should have a good one to kick things off.
These sides met just once in 2018, in Round 8, with the Cats winning by 21 points in an ugly, low-scoring slog at the MCG.
Sam Menegola claimed the three Brownlow votes that day thanks to a 24-disposal, three-goal performance.
Collingwood winger Tom Phillips was the game’s only other multiple goalscorer with two, but managed just 11 disposals, by far his lowest total of the season and one of just two occasions he had fewer than 20 touches.
Fingers crossed we get a better game of footy this time around. Star power certainly isn’t an issue. There are great players just about everywhere you look.
The Cats will face a conundrum all season when it comes to what to do with the biggest of those stars – Patrick Dangerfield – but it is especially difficult tonight.
Patrick Dangerfield of the Cats handballs during the round 19 AFL match between the Geelong Cats and the Brisbane Lions at GMHBA Stadium on July 28, 2018 in Geelong, Australia. (Photo by Michael Dodge/Getty Images)
Dangerfield is considered by some good judges the best player in the competition. He’s a pack-busting, line-breaking brute of an onballer, and the same combination of speed, strength and acceleration that makes him a superstar in the middle of the ground, makes him a nightmare match-up when he plays in attack.
The Cats have a top-notch power forward in Tom Hawkins, who booted 60 goals last season, but with their second-leading goalkicker of 2018, Dan Menzel, now in Sydney, they’ll need to find another reliable avenue to goal.
Against at least half the competition, Geelong will be able to play Dangerfield in attack without much fear of being overrun up the ground, but can they afford to do so against what might be the best and deepest midfield in the AFL?
With Joel Selwood, Mitch Duncan, Gary Ablett, Tim Kelly, Menegola and now Luke Dahlhaus in the mix, the Cats boast a midfield brigade that would be the envy of a lot of teams.
Not these Pies though.
Even without Taylor Adams and Daniel Wells (remember him?) Collingwood will roll out Scott Pendlebury, Steele Sidebottom, Dayne Beams, Adam Treloar and Phillips. They were the No.1 clearance team in the league last season.
And as impressive as that group is, the most dangerous midfielder the Cats will have to contend with is Brodie Grundy – the most complete ruckman since Dean Cox.
Rhys Stanley will need to be at the top of his game to take it up to Grundy. He’ll get a bit of a chop our from Esava Ratugolea, but most of the heavy lifting will need to be done by the former Saint.
The 28-year-old is one of the few big men in the AFL who can match Grundy for athleticism, and has shown flashes of brilliance throughout his 115 games but rarely been strung together quality games of football.
If he’s off his game tonight, Grundy will make him and his side pay a high price with his tap work and ground game – the 2018 All Australian is as comfortable and damaging when the ball is on the deck as he is when it’s in the air.
Brodie Grundy’s outstanding play is just one reason for Magpies fans to be optimistic. (Photo by Mark Metcalfe/Getty Images)
While the Cats search for attacking options, the Magpies are spoilt for choice. Will Hoskin-Elliott is out of action, but Jamie Elliott is a useful and welcome replacement to join reigning Rising Star winner Jaidyn Stephenson, Josh Thomas and Jordan de Goey in causing mid-sized mayhem.
There aren’t a lot of players in the competition built to take on De Goey. Lachie Henderson lacks the agility, Tom Stewart lacks the strength, Harry Taylor might lack both these days. Perhaps Jack Henry is the answer; not a very good answer, but an answer.
Geelong will field six new Cats. Dahlhaus and ex-Swan Gary Rohan will play their first real games in the hoops, and Tom Atkins, Jordan Clark, Charlie Constable and Gryan Miers will debut.
For the Pies, Dahlhaus’s former premiership-winning teammate Jordan Roughead is the only fresh face.
On their day, the Cats have the talent and experience to mix it with just about any team. Collingwood just look to have a bit more room for error.
I’m tipping the Magpies by two goals.
That’s my Friday night forecast. What’s yours?
Tonka Goldman
Roar Rookie
Geelong are a weaker side when Cameron Guthrie is in the team. 1. He has no time. 2. He puts teammates under pressure. Time and time again he has multiple options going through his head and he chooses the wrong option. He panics. He is no David Wojinski. He gives the opposition every chance to create a turnover. Trade him at any opportunity. Menegola is another one. Too slow; poor decision maker; very limited capabilities.
Peter the Scribe
Roar Guru
One of the Pies trademarks last year Mr Toad was indeed fast hands and multiple handballs out until a running player was clear. If what you keenly observed is true, it would seem to suit an Adam Treloar, Steele Sidebottom and Tom Phillips.
Fat Toad
Roar Rookie
I think the new kick in rules will make Mick Malthouse's idea of trapping opponents against the boundary work again, but I think they will apply pressure as Richmond did between the flank and centre line. The risk would seem to be the margin for error is highest the closer the ball gets to the centre line. The other possible advantage is that just getting one boundary throw in in your forward line after the bounce, gives the team with the ball in its forward line a chance to switch its defensive set up with out being under pressure from an opposition moving the ball quickly.
Fat Toad
Roar Rookie
Beams is a reclaimed player.
Fat Toad
Roar Rookie
After watching the Richmond game last night I left with a couple if observations but I am not yet sure of how they will play out, if at all, in other games or what it might mean for other teams. Richmond out ran Carlton easily in the end, which is the same as would have happened last year, but I thought that the journey was by a different route this year. I) The 6,6,6 set at centre starts means that there is a chance of scoring runs in each direction with potential for multiple series of quick goals because the field is wide open. If I remember correctly, at least 8 goals came in three runs and probably in a total playing time of under 5 minutes. After this the game played out pretty much as normal. II) Carlton looked best when they were switching the ball back through the corridor and their run stopped when Richmond were able to stop Carltons access there late in the third quarter and the final quarter. III) The corridor will be most open in the first 90s or so after each centre bounce and this will hold for a springboard return after the first 50m entry after the centre bounce. So getting the ball into your 50m zone first will not initially make it easy to lock it in. IV) Teams will probably need to have two styles of defence to cater for the differences in the way a ball moves from the new 6,6,6 set up to the more traditional in play mode after the restrictions are off. V) When considering the new no runners rule during play, the role for an on field defensive captain (think Hodge at the Suns) becomes very important for smooth switching between strategies. In other sports, the switch is when scoring opportunities often open up. VI) Its is hard to tell early in the season because everyone is rusty, but last year Richmond was dominant around the packs. Last night, I thought Richmond did not adjust well to the new more open game from kick ins and bounces, I will be looking to see if those stronger edge of the pack players (Dangerfield, Fyfe etc) that have done so well for teams in the last few years are less effective than faster hands and speed over the first 5 - 10metres of perhaps players with greater aerobic capacity to get to wider contests. Since Collingwood played similar to Richmond in this respect, I am interested to see what Buckley does, particularly since he was at the game last night.
Danny
Guest
I with the new rules, early signs point to more one on ones around the goal square and more space around centre half forward. It could be a good year for power forwards so Im watching out for Tom Hawkins tonight and Cox if he has sticky fingers. Hard to pick a winner but I think the bottom 6 for the pies are the difference Collingwood by 15 points.
User
Roar Rookie
Cats by 5 points
Sam
Roar Rookie
I'm one of the Geelong naysayers this year. Pies by 20+ points.
Doc Disnick
Roar Guru
Go Cats. I'm tipping the Pies though by 13 points.
Peter the Scribe
Roar Guru
Not at all Adrian, many media outlets have named Roughead as our only new player tonight and technically that's correct! I can't wait to see him back in the Black and White tonight. The guy is a gun, albeit a high maintenance one.
IAP
Guest
It was interesting to see how the teams handled the new kick-in rule last night. Both teams effectively had two men on the mark - pretty much a man on either corner of the goal square. This pretty much took away the option to play on out of the goal square. This of course means that the team kicking out should have a spare man somewhere. If it was me coaching I'd put half a dozen players in a pack and kick to that pack; not every time, but it'd make them doubt their zone tactic. It's backing your team to win the ball but they should be able to do that with weight of numbers and then run the ball until options open up. I'll watch with interest to see how they handle it tonight.
Cat
Roar Guru
I have no idea how this will play out. Geelong is just too different of a side from last year to get an accurate read on. Six new players into the side and 10 players with less than 50 games experience. Other than Hawkins the entire forward line is pretty much new. Throw in the rule changes and the off season changes in game plan (at least I bloody hope there have been changes) who knows ... Hope its close and Geelong is switched on from the opening bounce. Have a crack boys is all I ask.
anon
Roar Pro
Collingwood are in trouble if they don't win this one. They've got a much tougher draw this year, so have to make all these matches count.
Adrian Polykandrites
Expert
Great point about Beams, Peter. I shouldn't have missed that. Perhaps I never stopped thinking of him as a Collingwood player.
Brian
Guest
Pies comfortably by 5 goals or so. Cats are generally terrible at the MCG. Stanley could contain Grundy but looking at the body of evidence chances are he won't.
Peter the Scribe
Roar Guru
Dayne Beams is also a kind of old/new player after a four year hiatus at the Lions. I suspect Roughhead gets first crack at Tomahawk who is a man mountain and will be a challenge for any of our defence. The Cats have an incredible 6 new players so who knows what we are going to get here though their trademark accountability will no doubt be on show. They absolutely strangled the game against us last year. We kicked 5 for the game. The Pies started awfully last year against the Hawks too in round one so we better be up and about early or could easily find ourselves a few down at quarter time. With games to follow against the Tigers and Eagles this is a critical game for the Pies. Very nervously tipping Pies by 4 points.