We are three rounds into the NRL season, and tipping isn’t getting any easier, thanks to a couple of upsets last week and some very tough games this weekend. This is The Roar’s NRL expert tipping panel for Round 4.
While a vast majority of tipsters seem to be struggling with the start of the season, The Barry found some form last weekend.
He led us with seven, and it would have been eight, but he didn’t tip the Dragons. You best believe he will be forced to remember that monumental moment of madness for the remainder of 2019.
Unfortunately, it was downhill for the rest of us. I managed to pick up five tips alongside AJ, who still sits last. For those copying the defending champion, it might be time to pick a new strategy.
Stuart and The Crowd only managed to muster four points last weekend.
Round 4 kicks off at the Sydney Cricket Ground as the Roosters play the Broncos, before Friday brings us the Ivan Cleary Cup, with the Tigers tackling the Panthers after the Warriors play the Titans.
On Saturday, Manly host the Rabbitohs on the worst surface in the NRL, before the Cowboys take on the Raiders in Townsville, and the Sharks – with Bronson Xerri set to debut – face the Eels.
Melbourne will be heavy favourites to remain undefeated on Sunday against the Bulldogs, with the Knights and Dragons capping the round off in the Hunter.
Don’t forget to join in with your tips at the bottom of the article to try and beat the experts in 2019 as The Crowd and try your luck in our Roar NRL tipping comp. Crowd tips will close at approximately 5:30pm (AEDT) on Thursday afternoon.
Because The Barry clearly out-tipped all of us last week, he is going to lead things away in Round 4.
The Barry
Tips: Roosters, Warriors, Tigers, Rabbitohs, Raiders, Sharks, Storm, Dragons
I’m back baby! We’re back baby!
The Bulldogs scored their first win of the season. Who saw that coming? Well, me actually, one of seven successful tips for the week. Any sense of jubilation was short lived and quickly replaced by an uneasy feeling as I saw how hard this week’s games are, and the Dogs are playing away to the Storm.
(Photo by Cameron Spencer/Getty Images)
The Roosters haven’t been totally convincing to date but have been doing enough to get the wins. I’m tipping them to do the same on Thursday, but I do like the look of the Broncos with Matt Lodge returning, Matt Gillett back on an edge and Tevita Pangai Junior at lock. Part of me senses an ambush.
The Warriors have been dismal since routing the Bulldogs in Round 1. A five-day turnaround and travel to New Zealand prevent me from tipping the Titans.
Villiame Kikau’s return almost has me tipping Penrith. He adds so much to the Panthers attack, not just on the left, but his charges create space to set up a quick shift right. But there’s just too much going on at the foot of the mountains. The five-day turnaround for the Tigers makes me nervous, but I’m tipping a combination of Madge’s full-time spray and the return of Josh Reynolds to get them home.
It’s a tremendous luxury for a team to not be at their best and still be good enough to be undefeated. That’s where I see the Rabbitohs at the moment. I’m sticking with them but a Tom Turbo-inspired upset at home wouldn’t surprise.
On Saturday afternoon, the Cowboys and Raiders squads will have a combined three Joshes and three Jordans, two Jakes, Jacks, Josephs and Johns plus a Jarrod, a Javid, a Justin and a JJ. No joke. Triple J should think about broadcasting the game. I’m going for the Raiders.
Sharks against the Eels is the game of the round. The Sharks will be too strong, although home ground advantage gives the Eels some hope. Looking forward to seeing Bronson Xerri’s debut.
I’m tipping the Storm. I don’t really want to talk about it.
In the last game, yet again the team I like is away from home, making picking a winner more difficult. With not much confidence, I expect the Dragons to build on last week’s win, particularly if Tyson Frizell and his ruptured wheel is ready to roll.
AJ Mithen
Tips: Roosters, Warriors, Panthers, Rabbitohs, Cowboys, Eels, Storm, Knights
Steady as she goes. If I keep this up, I’ll surely come out ahead of all you streaky tippers with your peaks and troughs.
The Roosters will take care of an iffy Brisbane on Thursday, but it won’t be a domination. They’ll do what they need to do and nothing more.
New Zealand will sneak the Titans in a close one that might well go longer than 80 minutes.
All the talk has been about the Cleary ‘debacle’ at Penrith… So obviously the Panthers are guaranteed to beat Wests Tigers. It’s the way of the universe. Also, Viliame Kikau is back and he is glorious.
Souths will battle for an hour or so before they take the game away from Manly’s Trbojevic-inspired renewal.
(AAP Image/Dean Lewins) NO ARCHIVING
My beautiful Raiders will beat the discombobulated, Taumalololess Cowboys up north.
Parramatta will get the Sharks, a tip made with absolutely no confidence. This game should be a beauty.
The Storm will rout Canterbury in Melbourne. That’s all there is to say about that.
Finally, Kalyn Ponga’s return to fullback lets Mason Lino, an actual half, have a crack in the six jersey. He’ll help a lot as the Knights squeak one over the Dragons. It might only be Round 4, but there’s a lot riding on this game.
Stuart McLennan
Tips: Roosters, Warriors, Panthers, Rabbitohs, Raiders, Sharks, Storm, Knights
Footy tipping is a bumpy road and like the Eels and the Tigers, I fell in a heap last weekend only managing to get half the games right.
Upsets are what makes the NRL great and tipping interesting.
The game I am hanging out for most is the Busways Cup match between Penrith and Wests Tigers. The teams would have copped a vicious serve from the respective coaches after both sides surrendered meekly on the weekend. Grub (Reynolds) is in for the Tigers while the Panthers welcome back Kikau, I don’t know. Panthers at home.
Cronk has been named again to return from injury for the Roosters while the Broncos who failed at the last start have Lodge returning. Roosters will be too classy particularly in the halves.
Neither the Warriors or the Titans look good at the moment. Warriors at home.
The Sea Eagles looked a lot better in Christchurch with Tommy Turbo at the back but will face much better opposition when they come up against the Rabbitohs. Souths.
I am enjoying watching Bateman and the half English Raiders go round this season and they should be too good for the Cowboys who were disappointing last round. Canberra.
Dylan Brown out for Parra and Moylan out for Cronulla. This is a tough one but the Sharks are starting to find some good form. Cronulla to win.
(Tony Feder/Getty Images)
The Storm should easily prevail at home over the Bulldogs who played well last round but have lost Foran. Storm.
The Knights and Dragons is another tough one to pick. Ponga shifts back to fullback while St George Illawarra have lost a star at the back in Widdop. Knights at home but only just.
Scott Pryde
Tips: Roosters, Warriors, Panthers, Rabbitohs, Cowboys, Sharks, Storm, Dragons
So, I’m not running last. I guess that’s a positive. But tipping is a cruel beast at times, as my results from last weekend will show.
Anyway, let’s get the easy ones out of the way first this week. Melbourne will bash the Bulldogs. End of story. Canterbury were better last week, but a trek to Melbourne is a very tough ask.
Then there is Souths and Manly. The Rabbitohs, even at Brookvale, have been winning without playing well, so should be too good for the Sea Eagles who travel back from New Zealand, probably with a renewed sense of confidence.
In the not-so-easy basket, I’ll take my Dragons to beat the Knights. Tyson Frizell might be back, but even then, the Red V were a lot better last week against Brisbane away from home, and with a spine now set in stone, and a Knights team finally shifting Kalyn Ponga to fullback, it should be a bridge too far for the men from the Hunter.
Meanwhile, I can’t see why anyone would tip the Raiders to beat the Cowboys without Jason Taumalolo, noting the game is in Townsville.
The other games in the middle category of difficulty will see the Roosters get the better of the Broncos at what I’d say will be a sparsely populated Sydney Cricket Ground – seriously, who thought that was a good idea? Playing the Roosters (low fan support) against an out-of-town team, on a Thursday night, at the hardest place to get to on Earth, in a ground which is just dreadful to watch footy at.
(Photo by Ashley Feder/Getty Images)
Anyway, rant over on that one. The Warriors should also get the better of an improved Titans outfit, who have to travel with the dreaded five-day turnaround.
The two games I’m expecting to line up as matches of the round are the Panthers against the Tigers, and Eels against the Sharks.
Both could go either way. I’ll take the Panthers to beat the Tigers on the assumption it might take Josh Reynolds a little while to find his feet in first grade again. That, combined with big Kikau’s return and the Panthers just generally being desperate for a win, should send the script in their direction.
The Eels and Sharks is going to be a corker. Parramatta have been the team who have surprised me more than any other at the start of this weekend, while you always know what to expect out of the men from the Shire.
I’ll take the Sharks on the back of their defence with absolutely no confidence, but they need to keep Blake Ferguson quiet and dominate the territorial battle if that’s going to be the case.
Be sure to get your tips in on the form below by 5:30pm (AEDT) on Thursday, and we will have the results in the table and comments section below.
| Round 4 | AJ | Stuart | The Barry | Scott | The Crowd |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ROO v BRO | ROO | ROO | ROO | ROO | ROO |
| WAR v TIT | WAR | WAR | WAR | WAR | WAR |
| PAN v TIG | PAN | PAN | TIG | PAN | PAN |
| SEA v RAB | RAB | RAB | RAB | RAB | RAB |
| COW v RAI | RAI | RAI | RAI | COW | COW |
| EEL v SHA | EEL | SHA | SHA | SHA | SHA |
| STO v BUL | STO | STO | STO | STO | STO |
| KNI v DRA | KNI | KNI | DRA | DRA | KNI |
| Last week | 5 | 4 | 7 | 5 | 4 |
| Total | 13 | 15 | 15 | 14 | 16 |
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Papi Smurf
Roar Rookie
Richo rates him highly and he knows his game much better than I do. As for "catching him on a good day", he may well play like that all the time but against weaker opposition in reserve grade it's hard to gauge how he would do in the pressure of the NRL when the games are much faster. I think he will go OK but it will take time for him to find his feet and currently Souths have the incumbent Australian and NSW hooker so don't expect more than a cameo role from Brittain for the foreseeable future. Touch wood nothing happens to Damien Cook!!!
The Barry
Roar Guru
2 from 33!!!! Has anyone gone worse than that...?
The Barry
Roar Guru
Thanks - he looks a lot younger than 24...surprised to hear that. Reading your summary it sounds like I might have caught him on a good day. From what I saw I think he’d be ready for NRL but often it’s about getting that first shot.
Papi Smurf
Roar Rookie
Hey Scott, word is that Tyson Frizell is fighting to be ready to play the Knights. Have you heard anything? I bet he's busting a nut to be available. He might have to sing the national anthem as a soprano though if that's the case. ;-) https://www.nrl.com/news/2019/04/04/dragons-hopeful-frizell-will-return-against-knights/
Ray Stewart
Roar Rookie
Roosters | Titans | Wests Tigers | Rabbitohs | Raiders | Sharks | Storm* | Dragons Bring on Round 4, can't wait!
Papi Smurf
Roar Rookie
With Greg Inglis looking likely to be a late scratching Gagan and Gagai (Souths) vs Parker and Elliott (Manly) look to be the big weaknesses for both sides in this game. Whichever teams best exploits this weakness should go a long way towards wimning this one and Turbo looks more damaging joining the backline than AJ has at present. I'm sure the boys will be happy to catch up after the game with former Bunnies, Addin Fornua-Blake, Jack Gosiewski, Api Koroisau and Dylan Walker. ;-) After last week's performance and both Inglis and Walker likely to be missing this is a game I will be nervous about until the 2 points are in the bank.
Chris.P.Bacon
Guest
I'd just be happy if your Bulldog prediction comes true Mr S! Go Dogs!
Papi Smurf
Roar Rookie
"to support your numbers; Brendan Elliot has won 2 of his last 33 NRL matches" In case people missed the irony in my previous reply, clearly Elliott appears to be an albatross around the neck of any NRL club's chances of success. I think I will start referring to him as "the Albatross" ;-)
Papi Smurf
Roar Rookie
My tips are: Roosters Warriors Tigers Rabbitohs ??? Raiders Eels Storm Dragons My tips are the same as yours mate except for the Panthers. I think as a club the Panthers are in big trouble behind the scenes after pre-season scandals, Gould's admission that he felt something was very wrong at the club and perhaps the realisation that despite being a decent bloke, maybe Ivan Cleary is a little overrated as a coach. Rumours of the Sharks sounding out Phil Gould to jump ship and come to the shire only adds to these compounding problems. Madge on the other hand has had a great start with the Tigers who are full of confidence at the moment which is something that the Panthers are down on. No doubt the Panthers are a better side than their first 3 games suggest but the Tigers are playing with more confidence and have more stability within the club under Madge which should prove the difference between these two clubs IMO. I'm also tipping Josh Reynolds to have a MASSIVE game to prove that he belongs in first grade. I genuinely feel sorry for Dogs fans after finding a winning combination at last that resulted in a good win over the Eels but face the in form Storm at home in Melbourne. Had they played a much lesser team they could well have had back to back wins instead of the one sided affair this weekend most people are predicting. The Rabbitohs vs Sea Eagles game this weekend is the hardest for me to predict. The return of Turbo has given Manly renewed confidence and Souths were terrible against the last placed Titans last week who were missing 3 from their first choice spine. If Souths lose BOTH Inglis and Walker (who directs their attack) and fail to cut the errors and ill-discipline from their game Souths could struggle against Manly at home on a very dubious surface. After playing through the middle Souths need to focus their attack on Manly's edge defence and try to isolate Elliott and Parker who are both weak links in the side and supercoach "nuffies". Souths by 6+ to be decided in the last 10 mins.
Albo
Roar Rookie
Hi kk ! Yep, it is a bit of a stretch to back a team that hasn't won a game and is on a 5 day back up, but I just think the Warriors look awful across the board, with perhaps RTS the only saving grace for them in terms of attitude.
Papi Smurf
Roar Rookie
"Brendan Elliot has won 2 of his last 33 NRL matches" Wow! Elliott sounds like a one man team! LOL How many games has he won with Manly since the season started? ZERO! How many games have Manly won without Elliott? ONE! They have a 100% winning record when they are playing without their "one man NRL team" who keeps making errors, butchering tries and missing tackles. The drop in quality between Inglis and Gagan is undeniable in any season except this season where Inglis's form in 2019 has seen him look more like a passenger who not only may be carrying an injury and lacking fitness but he looks to be down in confidence and lacking motivation as well. No doubt Souths badly need a fully fit and motivated Greg Inglis but chronic injury and time away from the game might make that a bridge too far for the 32 year old who looks closer to the end of his career than Cam Smith does at 35. I'm still hoping that Bennett and the Rabbitohs medical staff can help get GI back to his best. I'd even settle for 85% of his best which would still be better than most centres running around in the NRL. But to be brutally honest his current form is not up to NRL standard and if this is not due to injury or a lack of confidence then perhaps a stint in reserve grade might help GI find the fire to reignite his career.
MrJSquishy
Roar Pro
My absolute zero confidence predictions are: Roosters by 6, but could be less than that - 4 of their last 5 wins over the Broncos were by 4 points or less... Warriors - they've lost only 2 of their last 16 against the Titans, and never two in a row - over that period (and they lost their last meeting) Panthers - won 6 of their last 7 against the Tigers and NEED a win Manly - their last 7 meetings have gone L-W-L-W-L-W-L..so, they're due a win (makes sense) Cowboys - in the last 13 years they haven't lost 3 in a row against the Raiders, and they've lost their last 2...so, again, due for a win Sharks - Parramatta haven't beaten the Sharks since 2014, they're arguably the better team, but I can't tip against the stats! Bulldogs - the last time Melbourne won 3 in a row against the Bulldogs was in 2012 (they've won their last 2) and they've lost their last 3 (against the Bulldogs) at home Dragons - they have won 11 of the last 13 meetings, and Newcastle at home to the Dragons have only won twice in their last 14 games! All absolute certainties - the stats don't lie! (In all honesty, I'll be happy if half of these are correct!)
kk
Roar Pro
Albo, Agree with your selections except for Titans. Warriors are well rested for this encounter whereas Titans have travel + short turn around.
steveng
Roar Rookie
For me this is how I see it: Roosters (very close one) Warriors (only going for the worries because they are at home) Panthers Bunnies "For Sure" even with all our injuries!!! Raiders Storm Dragons
Albo
Roar Rookie
I just can't believe the drop in attitude at the Warriors compared to last season ? They are missing Mannering badly, and even their previous real "warriors" like Tohu Harris & Adam Blair have been showing nothing to date ? I thought the Titans pack in particular, was strong against Souths and kept coming at them, and with the return of their halves, they must be a good chance of toppling NZ mob even with the short turn around time. With the Roosters missing Friend & JWH and a ordinary looking bench, there is a big chance for the young Broncos pack to dominate, even on the shifty SCG surface . And Cronk must still be underdone and will surely be tested by some big Bronco boppers. And the match up of Oates v Ikuvalu is downright unfair. Anyway that's my thinking on this match. And as for the Panthers backs not scoring tries, it is no surprise to me . We have had little flair there for years. And I just can't see any new backs talent coming through the development squads at this stage? Plenty of forwards but no backs right now . We tend to let our backs & utilities go ever since the days of the 3 x Jennings boys, Lewis, Gordon, Graham, Austin, right up to now with Peachey, Keighran, Crichton & Harawira -Naera recently let go ? I think the only flair in the backs they have now is Waqa Blake but he is not getting enough early ball and has probably been missing Kikau inside him to date . I think they need to get Jerome Luai in there somewhere for a bit of attacking flair, maybe at centre or fullback until Maloney or Cleary get injured ? But the cupboard is pretty bare in the backs if they lose their first choice players. When Tyronne Phillips & Malakai Watene-Zelezniak are your alternate backline replacements , you are in a heap of trouble.
Papi Smurf
Roar Rookie
Souths have big raps on Billy Britain and he had a strong year in the ISP last year getting the "Best and Fairest" award for the Bears and he was their captain, if I remember correctly. He also captained the QLD Cup side the Norths Devils at 23 yrs so he has definite leadership abilities. He has played in both the Brisbane Broncos and Melbourne Storm systems.and he can play hooker or in the halves having played at hooker, 5/8 and HB in the Melbourne system. Brittain is also a former Australian Rugby Schoolboy who played at stand-off (or 5/8) and he has represent NSW Residents and was part of the QAS Emerging Origin under 20s group. He is definitely next in line to cover Damien Cook but is viewed to more closely resemble Issac Luke. Personally, I think Brittain's game more resembles the Eels Reed Mahoney and the Sharks Jayden Brailey. At 24 years old (25 in May) he should be old enough for the NRL but he does lack size and speed. He has the potential to be a very good hooker but not like Cook or Luke IMO. His leadership abilities though are reminiscent to an extent of Cam Smith (but again not in his league). Bennett will probably give him a shot at some stage during the origin period unless he opts to throw Connor Tracey in at hooker for his ball playing ability. I do rate Brittain but I'm not expecting anything outstanding until he has had a season to find his feet in the NRL. Even then he will be solid without being exceptional IMO.
BA Sports
Roar Guru
The drop of from Suli to Elliott isn't like the drop off from Inglis to Gagan (or whoever), but to support your numbers; Brendan Elliot has won 2 of his last 33 NRL matches....
BA Sports
Roar Guru
Warriors are awful but the Titans are on ridiculous short rest and had to come to Sydney and then ad to go to NZ. That will be tough. I think the only other tip I differ on is the Roosters - They will deal comfortably with Seibold and the Broncos. Robinson has his measure. Couldn't believe the stat I heard this morning about your Panthers Albo - 3 games in and no one in the backline has scored a try... Great time to be coming up against Fanua, Jennings, Marsters, Thompson etc...
The Barry
Roar Guru
PS - I watched a large part of the Souths v Jets Canterbury Cup game on Sunday and was very impressed with Billy Brittain (great name too). Is he your back up 9 through origin or if Cook goes down? Do you rate him?
Geoff from Bruce Stadium
Roar Rookie
Going the same Albo apart from going for the Chooks