I love the notion of a ‘sure thing’. Nothing tingles the hairs on the back of the neck like a friend leaning in a little closer and whispering some ‘secret’ information into my ear.
The notion of knowing something to which every else is oblivious makes us feel special.
It has happened to me all my life due to the fact that I talk a lot and to anyone. In my sporting travels I have picked up hundreds of hot tips, bits of secret information and ‘mail’ that, when followed, should have well and truly made me a zillionaire by now.
In reality I own a modest home, drive a Camry and collect change in a glass jar.
It took Round 24 of the 2018-19 A-League to finally bring me to my senses and to the realisation that the eclectic gathering of fools who have passed on ‘the good oil’ to me for all these years are nothing more than idiots spreading unreliable betting advice.
The trigger to this realisation was the fact that in Round 24 I became the whisperer. The Wellington Phoenix were ‘sure things’ against the Reds in Adelaide.
Wellington fans (Anthony Au-Yeung/Getty Images)
With Jordan Elsey, Ken Ilso, Baba Diawara and Ryan Strain all unavailable and Nikola Mileusnic still underdone on the pine, surely their depth would be tested.
Parlayed into the fact that the Reds have struggled to score all season, logic suggested Ben Halloran and Apostolos Stamatelopoulos would not provide the required cutting edge up front to capitalise on Craig Goodwin’s delivery.
Throw in the return of Roy Krishna to a Phoenix front line that had scored 15 goals in three weeks and it was questionable why Adelaide fans were even turning up.
I sought out the odds and was flummoxed by the findings. Adelaide United $1.91 to win the match. Huh, a misprint? Wellington Phoenix $3.50 to win with the draw also paying $3.50. As a stared at my laptop, I felt like a kid in a candy shop.
I wondered if anyone else knew about it. The bookies had lost the plot and I stood to be the beneficiary. I told everyone whose footballing path I crossed on Sunday.
Two guys’ eyes lit up when I told them after our Sunday morning church service. Jeremy at KB Chickens also got the hot tip and the attendant at my local Coles Express seemed genuinely excited by the news.
The game began and bang, crash, wallop, the Reds were two clear after 17 minutes. Michael Marrone put away an easy header before Stamatelopoulos scored a fine goal to double the lead.
When he knocked in his second just moments before half-time the game was all but done.
Stamatelopoulos did manage to scare the home fans as he challenged recklessly just seconds later and received his marching orders on the stroke of half time, but the Reds never really looked threatened in the second half.
To say I felt a goose is an understatement, and it all might be merely a funny story if not for the betting carnage that had taken place earlier in the weekend.
It started with a foolhardy bet on the Roar to manage a draw against the Jekyll and Hyde-like Melbourne City up north. Not even close, really, despite Harrison Delbridge helping out the home side with an own goal.
Melbourne City fans (Daniel Pockett/Getty Images)
Redemption seemed likely when the Wanderers took an early lead against the Jets in Newcastle before the final quarter of the game saw them capitulate for the umpteenth time this season.
Even a draw would have sufficed, but Angus Thurgate slammed home a late winner and his first A-League goal.
The big blue brought no fortune either. I was confident in a Victory triumph, with a draw also a winning result thanks to the big odds offered on the visitors. Feeling confident and with just a minute or two remaining, Milos Ninkovic came to the party and capped off another stellar performance with an injury-time goal.
The Adelaide vs Wellington clash loomed as the saviour; the cash cow at the end of what had been an awful weekend of investment. Instead it was a rout for the Reds.
Needless to say, it was a grumpy Sunday afternoon amidst the blunt realisation that I had become an irritating whisperer, passing on rubbish tips and encouraging good-natured people to waste their hard-earnt.
I sincerely apologise to anyone who trusted me. Thank goodness there are still three weeks remaining, though. That big win can’t be too far away!
At work
Roar Rookie
What about a ‘sure thing’ Redondo ;)
Redondo
Roar Rookie
There's no such thing as a safe cigarette and there's no such thing as a safe bet.
At work
Roar Rookie
John I absolutely believe gambling companies want people to 'gamble responsibly'. As in you should gamble within your means, but as often as possible :) The last thing they want is people going broke due to gambling addiction, they'd prefer a long-term customer who bets every weekend. I just think their definition of 'responsibly' is probably a little different the communities...
Buddy
Roar Rookie
Any more than going into some establishments where staff have RSA licences but don’t appear to want to serve responsibly.
JOHN ALLAN
Guest
The following is "tongue in cheek". Responsible gambling is when you have "a rare win". People who lose "have a gambling problem". Do we really believe that Betting Institutions really want us to bet responsibly?
Lionheart
Roar Rookie
Don't want to sound like a wowser Griffo, I've had a bet on occasion and just recently let my account expire, but I detest gambling in sport. Racing is the gambling sport, keep it away from football or at least keep it at a distance. Too hard, as you say, to separate the dark side which gambling attracts almost by default.
Griffo
Roar Guru
Ideally the game from FFA down would not take sponsorship from betting companies. A bit hard to be vigilant on match fixing (in any sport) and take sponsorship with the flow-on effect of normalising betting odds and gambling as part of the sports existence and discourse.
RF
Roar Rookie
My apologies if I misinterpreted your intent. I've seen the horrendous damage gambling does first hand (not me, I stress), and it's something I (obviously) feel very strongly about. That 24 billion figure sure emphasises the point that the average Joe cannot win.
Lionheart
Roar Rookie
I'm dead against clubs and the sport promoting gambling. I don't like the way they seem to own the game at Fox. Never a game can start without a report from a betting company on the game and odds, always finishing with a smile 'and remembers to bet responsibly', whatever responsible betting is. It's part of our game now, that's how influential the betting companies have become. Anyone watching, including kids and suckers for a bet, can be excused for thinking that normal practice is to watch the game and have a bet. After all, the betting guy is part of the commentary team. I'd like to ban all advertising of betting on game day, and especially during the commentary period including pre and post game.
Pork Chop
Roar Rookie
Having followed the league since it’s inception ........ and recorded some nice multi’s many seasons ago ....... I have concluded that all is not what it seems in the a-league. I have stopped recording results and point spreads, player strengths etc and coaching styles into an algorithm to try and predict a winner since the fox advertisers were betting agencies. One thing that stood out was that when the tipping pundits were unanimous in a result ........ 9 out of ten times they were all wrong. The adelaide result for example. Then you have the sfc results ........ never bet against sfc when they need points to stay at the top and make a two horse race of the league. But here’s a tip. Select your bets according to the most popular winners, and teams at the top of the table keep, bet against the bottom two and reverse the picks for the rest. Start with a bet to the value of doubling your money probably three or four dollars. If you win put the winnings on the next game etc......... if you lose double the bet on the next game. I never win ........ but I never lose more than ten or twenty dollars.
At work
Roar Rookie
I hear ya Stuart, a good mate of mine always defers to me for his multies when he throws in an A League match or two. I feel like I'm giving him good advice but really I'm barely right, haha. I've mostly given up on betting on football as the 3 variables (win, draw, loss) make it too difficult. I much prefer when the NRL season kicks in to have a bet, as a draw is very rare. But it's all a bit of harmless fun, we're adults and should be allowed to do what we like with our money.
At work
Roar Rookie
I think the biggest gambling issue are pokies, they are a zero skill 'game' and the legislated minimum payout figure is something 11%. The way they're built they suck people in so well; from providing a rare big win, the lights, sounds and excitement from getting a feature (which invariably doesn't payout much) all add up to mesmerizing people into putting note after note through a machine. Betting on sports, no problems. It's enjoyable for many and for most it is nowhere near the money sucker that pokies are.
Stuart Thomas
Expert
So the use of the words idiot, fools, unreliable, foolhardy and irritating, nor the irony of the last line didn't tip you off to the tone? Far from a whimsical intention.
RF
Roar Rookie
Gambling is a blight on our country, causing untold misery, and the way it has been allowed to infiltrate sport is a disgrace. Perhaps you should look at the stats before posting this piece of whimsical filler. Australians are the world’s biggest losing gamblers, losing 24 billion dollars every year. https://www.nytimes.com/2018/04/04/world/australia/australians-gambling-betting-machines.html And that last sentence of yours is the reason why.
Buddy
Roar Rookie
Ha ha.... it is fun to spend a few dollars on a multi where you bet on the whole round. I have collected twice in three seasons and combined with a freakish night in the English League Cup a few seasons ago when I-picked four lower division teams to knock out a mixture of epl and championship sides it has fed my gambling account very nicely - but seriously, week in, week out as tempting as it is to try the longer shots, the odds on offer rarely lie, just have some fun.