North Melbourne vs Essendon: Good Friday forecast

The Roos are back on the Good Friday stage for the third time, and face their third different opponent after the AFL predictably sought a #BigClub for their latest marquee slot following the disappointment of last year’s clash between the Kangas and the Saints. 

I guess the Roos-Dogs thriller of 2017 and the big crowd it drew has been wiped from HQ’s memory, but I digress.

It’s been a shaky start to the year for North. After a surprising 2018 in which they won 12 games and narrowly missed finals, they have looked much more like the six-win side of 2017 in the first month.

But after an ugly win against the Crows, North Melbourne are at least on the board and will come into today’s game with a bit of confidence.

It wasn’t pretty, but it was a win three weeks in the making after competitive losses to the Hawks and Lions – North were within a kick at three-quarter time in each game.

Scoring still looks like a bit of a concern for the Roos, though. Ben Brown (ten) and skipper Jack Ziebell (seven) are the only Kangaroos with more than three goals thus far.

(Quinn Rooney/Getty Images)

The Bombers were the only team to start the season as poorly as the Roos, but they have since rediscovered their mojo.

Essendon were back to their best in Round 4, torching the previously undefeated Lions with their slingshot footy.

Anthony McDonald-Tipungwuti was the star of the show with seven goals, but Mitch Brown was also impressive, playing his best game as a forward with 25 disposals, 11 marks and three goals.

Jake Stringer was also lively but let himself down with his finishing.

But beyond the individuals, the Dons had the look of a team in sync, which wasn’t the case in the first couple of weeks.

The Roos have made two changes, bringing in veteran Sam Wright and fourth-gamer Bailey Scott for the suspended Luke McDonald and youngster Tarryn Thomas, who has been rested.

The Bombers bring in Matt Guelfi for the ‘managed’ Devon Smith, perhaps with one eye on their Anzac Day clash.

The last two times these sides have met we’ve had shootouts the likes of which we rarely see in modern footy, though they’d hardly have been considered shootouts in other eras.

The Bombers ran out winners on both occasions – 125-108 in Round 15 last year and 132-105 in Round 18, 2017.

The AFL, Channel 7 and neutral fans would no doubt love another one of those, but for the Roos it’s proven a losing strategy in the past and likely would again here.

They don’t appear to have the class across the field – but particularly in attack – to match the Bombers in a high-scoring encounter.

(Michael Willson/AFL Media/Getty Images)

It’s still early in the season, but Essendon, despite their atrocious opening round, are ranked fourth for converting inside 50s into goals this season.

The Roos are third worst when it comes to goals conceded per inside 50 against and have also conceded the third most inside 50s. That’s an ominous combination of factors.

They held the Crows to just 36 inside 50s last week and would love to do something similar to the Bombers.

If they’re to do so, not only will they need Todd Goldstein, Ben Cunnington and Shaun Higgins to get on top in the middle, but they’ll need their forwards to be at their defensive best to clamp Bombers defensive dashers Adam Saad and Conor McKenna.

Someone – Mason Wood, perhaps – needs to keep Michael Hurley occupied. The Dons defender is still a bit shaky one on one.

It’ll be interesting to see how North approach this one. The higher-ups would be rightly concerned about losing a fixture they campaigned for for so long. Does that change the way they play?

It’s hard to see Brad Scott doing anything except what gives them the best chance to win – and, realistically, a win is probably the best thing they can do to keep the Good Friday slot.

Unfortunately for them, the Bombers are looking much more like the finals side most expected to see and North Melbourne are looking like not that.

Essendon by four goals. That’s my Friday night forecast. What’s yours?

You can stream all of today’s AFL action between North Melbourne and Essendon on Kayo with a 14-day free trial.