In a World Cup year, the battle for spots is immense. And one of the most heavily contested positions in the squad is at scrum half.
Australia’s depth has been in question since the 2015 Rugby World Cup. With players leaving to play in Europe and Japan, Michael Cheika and his men have often been scrounging the depths of Australian rugby to find a diamond among the rocks. This year may be different.
The Super Rugby competition has been an open one this season. More teams are winning away for home and placings in each conference are compressed.
The competition for the two available scrum half spots for the Wallabies is hot.
It is fair to say that one of the scrum half spots is already taken. That is owned by Will Genia. He is an amazing all-round scrum half who can attack, defend and kick exceptionally well and that is without mentioning his passing and game awareness.
But there is one vacant spot. A spot being contested by four.
The four contenders for the other scrum half position are Jake Gordon and Waratahs teammate Nick Phipps as well as Joe Powell and exciting youngster Tate McDermott.
By looking at each player’s statistics for the Super Rugby season, you can begin to group each player into their own category.
Let’s start up north with Tate McDermott. The Sunshine Coast product was initially the understudy to Moses Sorovi this season before Thorn gave him a starting opportunity and McDermott has not looked back since.
He has scored four tries this season and has gained 221 metres from 26 runs. His line-breaks and tackle busts add up to six and 17 respectively.
He leads his counteparts (except Genia) in all of those attacking facets except kicking where he has made just 11 for 385 metres.
His kicking has certainly improved from the start of the season but this is where we begin to see his personal characteristics.
McDermott is a running half. He wants to attack the line and is not afraid to have a scoot from the back of a scrum or ruck. An exciting prospect that presents the future of Queensland rugby.
(Photo by Steve Haag/Gallo Images)
Taking a trip south and we land in Sydney where Jake Gordon and Nick Phipps reside. Phipps has played just the five games this season but the 61 Test Wallaby is no stranger to the national setup and is well-liked by Michael Cheika.
Despite playing just the five games, his stats can be analysed and it is fair to say that his style is much more different to McDermott’s. His stats are very similar to the Brumbies’ Joe Powell but we will get to that later.
Phipps has made six runs for just over 50 metres with just two tackle busts. Despite having played four games less than McDermott, he has made five more kicks than the Queenslander.
With 27 tackles to his name, Phipps shows that he is a traditional workhorse No.9 who relies on his kicking and passing (most of the time) to benefit the team.
His Waratahs teammate Jake Gordon is an interesting case. Gordon sits between McDermott and Phipps in his style of play.
His stats suggest that he is neither as attacking as McDermott nor traditional as Phipps. He sits between the two in terms of runs and run metres as well as tackle busts.
He has made 15 more kicks than Phipps for 861 metres. His tackle numbers are the same as Phipps, just four behind McDermott’s 31 and he also has a try to his name.
The comparison between Gordon’s stats and Phipps’ and McDermott’s place him in the middle of the two. You could say he has been more balanced between attacking and kicking.
The final competitor is Brumbies scrum half, Joe Powell. The 25-year-old has three Test caps to his name and plays an instrumental part in the way the Brumbies function.
(AAP Image/SNPA, Ross Setford)
As I said earlier, Powell’s stats are very similar to those of Nick Phipps. Has played nine games to Phipps’ five, so nearly double.
Powell’s runs are exactly double Phipps’ six and Powell has made just the single line break whereas Phipps has none.
Powell has just more than double Phipps’ tackle busts which sit at five as well as Powell’s 33 kicks to Phipps’ 16.
The one facet of the game where Powell does distance himself from this pattern is tackles where he has a stunning 61 to Phipps’ 27.
As you can see though, when considering that Phipps’ has played just over half the games Powell has played, the statistics are amazingly similar.
These similarities also place Powell in Phipps’ style of scrum half.
Will Genia dominates in most categories where he has the most runs, run metres, line-breaks, kicks and kick metres. It is fair to say that Genia is easily the best scrum half in Australia at the moment.
So, what does the decision come down to? The decision comes down to the balance of the squad that Michael Cheika deems to be appropriate in Australia’s World Cup plans, ambitions and hopes.
Knowing Genia is the all-round package, who is the reserve scrum half? Do you go for an attacking weapon who loves to run the ball? A player like the Reds’ Tate McDermott?
Do you settle for a kicking and territorial scrum half such as Phipps’ and Powell who will consistently turn out solid performances?
Or do you split the two styles and go for a Jake Gordon who has balls in both courts?
Whatever the decision is, there will be speculation, controversy and mixed feelings. But that is the beauty of – finally! – having some depth in Australian rugby.
Bourkos
Roar Rookie
White and Tate. That would decide WC placing
wade fite
Roar Rookie
Hi Peter K. While I agree with your comments as usual. What is the point?... We all know Phipps will be number two half back at the RWC. There are some things that are writ in stone. If Cheika is still coach in fifty years from now, Phipps will still be back up half, "running" on, pushing his zimmer frame and O2 bottle, with fifteen minutes to go, and underarming the ball in the general direction of his flyhallf. Ned Hannigan will be on hand to fumble the loose ball towards M Foley, who will kick it into touch on the full (outside his 22). Only saving grace will be David Pocock, finally recoverd from his preseason calf injury incurred in 2019, who is on hand to prevent a quick all-blacks throw in and save the Wallabies from the ignominy of a 200-nil scoreline.
Red*Star
Roar Rookie
Thanks for the statistical analysis Zanden. It's always good to base selection decisions with these in mind. What the stats don't tell us however is the level of energy a player can bring to a game. The halfbacks energy level is critical to the energy level of the team especially the forwards. How many times this season have we seen Genia urge his forward to up their work rate having a positive impact on the game. WIth a second choice halfback, I would go so far as to say their energy level is as important, if not more so than their hard skills especially at the hour mark of a game. On this measure McDermott is head and shoulders above the other options and given his stats are not dissimilar from the other players i would take him as teh second choice halfback. With him as the second choice, Cheika could have a game plan of bringing him on at 60 minutes and not waiting until Genia starts to flag. He can change the complexion of a game running from the base of a ruck against tired defenders. Its early days for him yet and a lot more about his capabilities will be revealed over the remainder of the Super Rugby season but on current anaylsis, he is easily number two for the Wallabies
Don
Roar Rookie
And like Santa answering my Christmas wishes, news comes in that Nick White has agreed to return in 2020 and will sign shortly and thus be eligible for Tests this year.
Stu
Roar Rookie
Genia inexplicably blows hot and cold. Which one will we get?
Timbo (L)
Roar Guru
Prior is a great leader and has some great skills, and, as much as my allegiance lies with him, I think that there are better choices for the #9 jersey. His skills straddle 9 and 10, jack of all trades, master of none, a halves version of Reece Hodge. Can't find a place for him in the starting 15 but a highly valuable asset to have on the bench. With Genea playing between 65 and 80 minutes, Prior could back up the 9/10 position allowing a 6/2 bench or for a spare center wearing the #22 . When selecting your 15, you (should) be comparing which player is best for the position. Selecting the back 8 needs to be far more analytical balancing injury cover against fatigue management and requires knowlege of your first 15, Who is my spare shot caller in the lineout, Who will kick if xyz goes down, can I move my 11 into 13 or my 14 to 15.
stillmissit
Roar Guru
True Sheikh, but there is one asset that yhoung players bring and cannot be replicated and that is speed. Looking at that Crusaders youngster stepping and speeding out of the centres last week reminded me about what youngsters bring to a game. Great coaches know this, if they didn't Campese would have waited a couple of years to get a start.
Realist
Guest
A fantastic article with the future so predictable that if it was the stock market we’d all be rich by the end of the RWC. Genia No 1, McDermott 2, Powell 3, Gordon 4, Ruru 5.....yet Phipps will,walk into the 23 behind Genia and whatever poor Schmuck ends up in the wider squad will be afforded 2 mins here or 3 mins there and deemed ‘too inexperienced’ to bank on in October. We live in the Chieka era of NSW at all costs. We shouldn’t pretend form or ability will be given due recognition when the boot-throwing, bar pissing, team-mate shafting, ‘player of the 2016 series’ against England (for England) holds a mortgage on jersey no. 21. We live in dark times with a management crisis up there with the far right liberal party members - who would rather see the code burn than pass up serving their self interests
Sheikh
Roar Rookie
I think O'Connor played for the Wallabies before he'd started a game for the Force (he'd had half a dozen games as a sub). Larkham also played for the Wallabies after his first Super Rugby season (although he'd had more games than O'Connor, and was 22). It's possible that a stand-out player in the NRC might get taken on tour before he's played a Super Rugby game, as Cheika has taken 'training' players before. If there's a run of injuries, they could get a game. Or some freakishly good schoolkid (like Joseph Suaalii) could get picked, but I suspect they'd get eaten alive by an experienced opponent. I doubt we'll ever get anyone younger than Brian Ford debuting as a Wallaby these days, though.
Crazy Horse
Roar Pro
There is another: the Western Force Captain Ian Prior. As well as excellent scrum half skills he has one hell of a boot and would add to the leadership group.
stillmissit
Roar Guru
Sheikh, Interesting concept, don't think White will qualify unless he comes back soon. Would love to see something like this "you could, in theory, pick someone still in school." I think Campese was the closest at 19 and a bit. Just googled and O'Connor was younger at 18 and the youngest was in 1957 Brian Ford 18. So if there is an outstanding schoolboy they could get picked but watching our Under 20's for the last few years we are short at that level. Maddox was outstanding in U20's at fullback.
Sheikh
Roar Rookie
Actually, they only have to be playing in Australia (or already have 60 caps); there's no requriement to be playing Super Rugby - you could, in theory, pick someone still in school. Prior (Force captain) is a descent option for the wider squad, as he provides cover for both 9 and 10.
Timbo (L)
Roar Guru
My take is Gordon, with Powel on backup, Tate to travel with the squad for experience. There are others like Sorovi, Prior and lucassesses that I think rate more than a passing mention. I would also like to point out that Cheika has been drinking from the same dried up well for so long that we have been deceived into thinking that there was a talent shortage. In my opinion, Cheika caused the exodus and has been wallowing in his own waste.
stillmissit
Roar Guru
Bobby: Acceptable statement UNTIL you are in trouble with the cards you are dealt and I propose that we do not have the cards in the current circled wagons that are the Wallabies. Who do we have that would make a world 15? Genia (on the bench behind Smith if lucky), Pocock (if fit), I am struggling to name anyone else. In my book, it is time for some new blood but only if we have a coach who can ID talent that can step up not just pick the obvious and often almost over the hill players ie Cheika. Bob Dwyer knew how to pick potential top players ie Kearns and Farr-Jones from relative obscurity. I accept that we have little choice this RWC but we should be blooding those to play in the next RWC now!
Bobby
Roar Rookie
My understanding is that Kerevi has already signed. Whilst I agree we should have offered more it is done. Also believe he sort more dollars at his last contract and the Reds penny pinched him and while he did sign (to play in RWC) he was pissed off. Probably why his manager looked around for a big deal post WC.
Boomeranga
Guest
It'd be great to have him for the world cup but agree longer term. We better off spending the money on Kerevi.
Bobby
Roar Rookie
Potenrial means nothing. The caravan parks are full of guys that had unfulfilled potential. Gotta earn your stripes before you get a green and gold
Cassandra
Roar Rookie
Thanks Zanden - very interesting article. I was also going to comment on pass accuracy, but I really don't know if that would be measurable and doubt that stat exists. I've always thought that Phipps is a good footballer but not a good half back because of his poor passing. Given that it's possibly the most important feature in a halfback's game, I've always wondered how he's gotten so far with such a deficiency. You see the difference time and again when Gordon comes on to replace him for the Tahs. He gets the backline moving better because he is able to consistently put the ball in from of his runners. Personally, I think Gordon is the best of the rest when you consider pass accuracy as well, but given MC's preference for Phipps I doubt that will make any difference come selection time. BTW, I thought Sorovi was great at the start of the season so if McDermott has firmly moved into no.1 halfback position then he must be doing something very right.
PeterK
Roar Guru
no just be signed up for super rugby which includes 2020
Bobby
Roar Rookie
Yep, Moore was terrible for Qld Rugby