We are now a quarter way into season 2019. The form is starting to sort itself out.
So how does each team look so far?
The Melbourne Storm
How the hell does Craig Bellamy continually produce his purple automatons? They are like Terminators. They don’t feel pity, they don’t get tired and they absolutely don’t lose focus. They are remorseless in defensive line speed and attacking venom.
One had hoped that the departures of Cooper Cronk and Billy Slater would have dented their invulnerability. However, Cameron Munster has totally exploded into the role of primary playmaker, while Cam Smith has the pack rolling as well as ever.
Their only defeat was at the hands of the defending premiers, thanks in large part to the genius of Latrell Mitchell.
Defence rating: A
Attack rating: B+
Coach pressure rating: 0
Finals likelihood: Certainties
Overall rating: A
Suliasi Vunivalu of the Storm (Photo by Kelly Defina/Getty Images)
The Sydney Roosters
The Roosters were a bit scratchy in round one and got jumped by a focused Bunnies outfit. However, since that point they’ve looked awesome, scoring 25 tries to 13 conceded.
Luke Keary has carried on his brilliant form from the 2018 Grand Final and looked superb. His head clash with the Storm’s Jahrome Hughes may keep him sidelined for the ANZAC day clash but the Roosters have had a big injury toll this year and have just kept on winning.
I predicted before a ball was kicked this season that they’d be the first back-to-back premiers since 1993. I’m pretty happy with that call.
Defence rating: B
Attack rating: A+
Coach pressure rating: 0
Finals likelihood: Certainties
Overall rating: A
The Canberra Raiders
The Raiders were in no one’s finals predictions pre-season. Further, not one expert mentioned John Bateman in their candidates for buy of the year, let alone Charnze Nikoll-Klokstad.
Coach Ricky Stuart was in borrowed boots according to many pundits. Yet after a quarter of the season the Raiders are in equal first, with their only loss coming against a well-rested Storm side, on the back of their own five-day turn around.
The Raider’s defence is the best in the league so far, having only conceded 66 points at an average of 11 points a game. That has included holding two sides scoreless, including the hitherto rampant scoring Eels.
However, their attack hasn’t even vaguely clicked. Jack Wighton is rocks and diamonds at 5/8 and Sam Williams is doing a decent job at halfback without being incendiary.
Too many passes are going to ground. That all needs to improve if they are actually compete with the Storm, Roosters and Bunnies.
Defence rating: A+
Attack rating: C+
Coach pressure rating: minimal
Finals likelihood: Likely
Overall rating: B
Ryan Sutton of the Raiders (AAP Image/Rohan Thomson)
The South Sydney Rabbitohs
I thought that Wayne Bennett had got the booby prize swapping mustard and maroon for the Cardinal and Myrtle. How wrong I was. Their first up win against the premiers showed that the Rabbitohs meant real business in 2019.
While they sit in equal first with five wins, they haven’t been quite as convincing as the Storm or Roosters. For a starter their loss was to the struggling Sea Eagles, and they only just scraped home against Warriors, Bulldogs and Titans.
However, they have scored the third most points so far this season, averaging almost 24 points a game. Further, they have a very good draw. So it is looking very good for the Bunnies so far in 2019.
Defence rating: B
Attack rating: A
Coach pressure rating: 0
Finals likelihood: Certainties
Overall rating: B+
The Parramatta Eels
Last year’s wooden spooners have gone a long way to putting the horrors of 2018 behind them. With a two thirds winning ratio, the Eels sit in fifth spot with a quarter of the season gone. Their two losses have been to the Roosters and the Raiders.
While both of those losses were 13+ affairs, their four wins have looked good, especially the blitzing of the Wests Tigers. They have the second most prolific attack so far this year, averaging almost 25 points scored a game, while only conceding 16.
Mitchell Moses seems to be growing into his playmaking role each game and the whole side looks enthusiastic, motivated and – best of all – talented.
Things are looking good for the blue and gold.
Defence rating: B
Attack rating: A
Coach pressure rating: easing off
Finals likelihood: looking promising
Overall rating: B+
The St George Illawarra Dragons
The Dragons have really surprised me with their grit so far. With the preemptive standing down of Jack De Belin and the loss of Gareth Widdop, I assumed that the Red V would settle around the bottom four this year, with Mary McGregor getting the boot around the midway point of the season. Yet here they are in equal fifth spot.
Ben Hunt and Corey Norman are doing well together, and the Dragons pack is muscling up.
Their first up loss to the Cowboys up north told me that it was going to be a very long season for the Dragons. Then they lost to the Rabbitohs to confirm my suspicions.
However, they’ve now won four straight. It hasn’t always been pretty – with the exception of their caning of the Bulldogs – but they’ve got the damn job done.
However, they are scoring just slightly more than they are conceding, with an average score of 20-18 so far this year. So things are probably a bit more tenuous than their position suggests.
But who cares? Come September early season form counts for nowt. Only the points you got matter. Right now the Dragons may be winning ugly, but the key word there is winning…
Defence rating: B-
Attack rating: C+
Coach pressure rating: A bit of pressure still
Finals likelihood: Not unlikely
Overall rating: B-
The Manly Warringah Sea Eagles
When the Sea Eagles were zero and two I just assumed they were going to have a horror year. With $350,000 less salary cap to play with, dilapidated facilities and then with Turbo Tom Trbojevic out injured, I just assumed the boys from Brookvale were going to play the part of whipping boys in 2019.
Then they won three straight and were only robbed against the Dragons because a blatant escort wasn’t pulled up. Sure it’s only a fifty per cent win ratio, but Manly have shown they have spirit and determination. That’s half the battle won right there.
Daly Cherry Evans looks better than ever and Jake Trbojevic and Martin Taupau are also absolute stars. The rest are having a dip too.
Their average score of 20-18 isn’t brilliant but they are still in the fight and in touch. Could they be the Stephen Bradbury of the 2019 NRL? Probably not, but they ain’t nobodies easy-beats neither.
Tom Trbojevic of the Manly Sea Eagles (Photo by Tony Feder/Getty Images)
Defence rating: B-
Attack rating: C+
Coach pressure rating: zero
Finals likelihood: Not unlikely
Overall rating: B-
The Cronulla Sutherland Sharks
The Sharks rarely do things the easy way. Being competitive in a season of NRL is hard enough without salary cap issues, resultant fines and deregistered coaches in the pre season.
However, the lads from the Shire are nothing if not scrappers and they find themselves with a three and three record at the quarter way point of the season. They’ve also added a fair few injuries to their challenges, with veteran captain Paul Gallen getting even more pointed than ever in his exchanges with opponents and detractors.
They’ve scored just slightly more than they’ve conceded, with their 14 point loss to the Roosters their worst.
However, coming back from 20-6 down last weekend against the Panthers to win 24-20 showed that there is real fight in these Sharks still.
However, they need to work on their focus and consistency if they are going to make the finals for a fifth straight season.
But right now there are plenty of good stats with the Sharks ranked fourth best for missed tackles, second for line breaks with 5.5 a game and first for offloads.
Defence rating: B
Attack rating: C+
Coach pressure rating: a fair bit you’d reckon
Finals likelihood: Quite possible
Overall rating: C+
The Wests Tigers
Until last weekend I would have said the Wests Tigers we’re tracking ok considering the off season change of coach. Then they got smashed. As Andrew Ferguson from the Rugby League Project pointed out, no premier has ever conceded more than 40 points in a winning season.
So just like they did in 2005, the Wests Tigers are going to have to rewrite the history books if they are to lift the Summons-Provan Trophy in 2019.
Here’s the problem with that: while they beat up on the Warriors, that’s like chasing fat kids most days. They’ve lost to the struggling Bulldogs and Panthers.
The consistency just isn’t there. They have an average score of 16 points scored and 18 points conceded a game. While their missed tackles are actually pretty good, they are the worst in the comp for breaking the line, averaging just two a game. You can’t win if you don’t score…
It’s not all doom and gloom but they’d better start improving soon and finding some consistency.
New Tigers coach Michael ‘Madge’ Maguire (AAP Image/Brendan Esposito)
Defence rating: B
Attack rating: C-
Coach pressure rating: quite a bit
Finals likelihood: Maybe a chance
Overall rating: C
The New Zealand Warriors
The biggest issue for the Warriors is that they aren’t just a one town team, they’re a one country team.
Until things go pear shaped each season – as they have already in 2019 – they constantly have smoke blown up their posteriors about how great they are in spite of there being no evidence to support it. And then they play like they believe the press.
And then the press turns on them because they are just so disappointingly mediocre.
And they are.
All the talent in the world and nothing to show for it after a quarter of a century.
They’ve beaten the struggling Bulldogs and an injury depleted Titans. They’ve lost the rest and been absolutely flogged twice.
They’ve got an average score of 20 points for to 23.5 against. That’s just crap for the side that has the highest average line breaks (5.7) and the second highest tackle breaks (28.7) a game.
It’s time for this side to put up or ship out.
Defence rating: D-
Attack rating: C
Coach pressure rating: Heaps of pressure
Finals likelihood: Bugger all
Overall rating: D+
The Gold Coast Titans
The Titans have been given an appalling draw by the NRL and then keep getting hit with injuries.
Their list is actually quite ok but not when it isn’t on the park. After four straight losses they finally broke with wins over the Panthers and then they walloped the Knights.
Of course then Ryan James busted his knee… Who’d be a Titans fan?
Their average score of a 17-23 loss isn’t great but they have the potential to really click if they could ever catch a break.
Their only dire stats are their line breaks conceded (4.8 – second worst) and their Missed tackles (29 – second worst). But the rest of their stats are mediocre at best.
I don’t think Garth Brennan will enjoy this year…
Defence rating: D-
Attack rating: C-
Coach pressure rating: lots of pressure
Finals likelihood: not much
Overall rating: D
The Penrith Panthers
The chocolate soldiers have returned. They melt when the going gets tough. This is a side with a golden draw and the incumbent NSW halves.
Sure they’ve lost Trent Merrin, Tyrone Peachey and Corey Harawira-Naera, but the list is still stacked with talent.
It just isn’t performing.
The Panthers are uninspired and insipid.
Their average of 13.8 points scored per game is just awful. They are the worst in the comp for run metres gained…
I thought the return of Ivan Cleary would signal a big turn around at the foot of the mountain. Now with Phil Gould gone, maybe it will.
But it needs to. As much as I love Cleary senior and junior they’ve got to get this new bus on the road ASAP, before this season is gone – and it almost is.
Defence rating: D
Attack rating: D-
Coach pressure rating: it’s mounting
Finals likelihood: slim
Overall rating: D
The North Queensland Cowboys
When you pay $10 million for a player it really hurts when he is injured. While Jason Taumololo may return far sooner than predicted, the Cows need him now. Without him Michael Morgan is left with a lot of ageing, unproved and underperforming cattle.
Their win against the Warriors gave some cause for optimism, but they need to continue that form with wins over the Bulldogs and Titans in their next two games.
Paul Green (AAP Image/Michael Chambers)
Their for and against is second worst after the Bulldogs, as are their tries and run metres conceded.
There is still a lot of talent in their pack but, for mine, the backline looks threadbare. Without Taumololo I can’t see where the danger is in their attack…
Defence rating: E
Attack rating: D+
Coach pressure rating: There’s gotta be some
Finals likelihood: quite slim
Overall rating: D-
The Brisbane Broncos
Can you believe that there were well credentialed news outlets pre season tipping the Broncos to be Premiers? It seems ridiculous now.
Their worst start to a season since 1999, the Broncos are under immense pressure from the CEO to the talent scouts. Brisbane doesn’t do failure. While they haven’t exactly been brilliant the last couple of seasons, missing the finals – which now looks likely – is unacceptable.
The silver lining for the Broncos faithful is that it might precipitate a clean out of mediocre club staff and those who are in jobs they don’t do well. I’d suggest there is a bit of fat that needs trimming at Red Hill.
Anthony Seibold would not be enjoying this.
The Broncos missed tackles are the worst in the league and they are second worst only to the Bulldogs in points and run metres conceded.
They are not premiership favourites in any way.
I predict a fire sale is nigh.
Defence rating: E
Attack rating: C-
Coach pressure rating: Ivan Henjak got the boot in his first season…
Finals likelihood: Nil
Overall rating: D-
The Newcastle Knights
How good did the Knights’ list look going into this season? The inclusions of Tim Glasby and David Klemmer were ideal.
They won first up against the Sharks and were very in their face about it. Now on a five-game losing streak, Paul Gallen is keen to point out that they didn’t back up their big talk.
And they didn’t.
While initially the losses were close, they exploded last weekend when they were shellacked by the struggling Titans.
Knights coach Nathan Brown during the Newcastle Knights training session at Balance Field in Mayfield, Newcastle, Thursday, August 23, 2018. (AAP Image/Darren Pateman)
Nathan Brown is now in borrowed boots as coach. He’s got a very good list and it should be doing much better than this. How can a side with Kalyn Ponga have scored the second fewest points? Brown just got the dreaded total support of the CEO. Two more losses and he’ll be gone.
Defence rating: C
Attack rating: D-
Coach pressure rating: Dead man walking
Finals likelihood: Nil
Overall rating: D
The Canterbury Bankstown Bulldogs
We have our wooden spooners people.
The Dogs list is just too weak to truly compete.
Because they are the Bulldogs they have plenty of fight and won’t give up, but there will be more floggings like the one that the Dragons gave them in Round 5.
However, the Dogs will be back and soon. They never stay down for long. It is a mighty and proud club.
Defence rating: E
Attack rating: E
Coach pressure rating: A little
Finals likelihood: Nil
Overall rating: E
Josh H
Roar Rookie
A bit harsh on the Warriors I think, Tim. They'd lost their halfback and 2nd-best player for the past few weeks, and have had their playmaking directed by 20 year old kid, a washed-up hooker and a couple of bitpart centres. Ultimately, you could definitely argue that team selection has been poor from Kearney - their team against the Storm included a second-rower at halfback, a bang-average centre at fullback, a debutant and a perennial reserve grader in the centres, as well as 2 back-up hookers and a halfback playing his first game on the bench - but they've started to string together some valiant performances. I wouldn't be giving them that ultimatum so soon. Agree 100% re: Cowboys though. That back 3 has got to be one of the weakest I've seen in the NRL in the past decade. With O'Neill - a slow and washed-up centre - and Hampton - a mediocre five-eighth - pairing the wings, with a reserve-grade level halfback put in between, I wouldn't be surprised if Dally Messenger is fervently rolling in his grave right now.
Superspud
Roar Rookie
I know this is not the place for it but I recently watched a doco on it. Laurie wasn't alone in making some ridiculous claims. At least he had the cred og being a good player. For the vast majority who signed had the vision become a reality they would've all been out of a job.
Randym
Guest
Laurie Daley must be a bit embarrassed about that period. He really spear headed the SL cause from a players perspective as he was probably the best player in the game around 94/95.
Superspud
Roar Rookie
For sure. Not sure how old you are or if you were around in the mid 90s.But in my opinion the Super league competition in 97 was set up by the Broncos because the ARL wouldn't give them their own way. The competition was administered by John Ribot who resigned from the Broncos to do it. The most amazing thing to me is that they were able to convince 9 other clubs that this competition would be anything but a Broncos celebration.
The Barry
Roar Guru
You ability to miss the obvious should also be appreciated. The point is why would the infamous and almost mythical ‘Sydney media’ be pumping up the tyres of a team from Newcastle...?
MadgicSH
Roar Rookie
Where was the Eels attack against the Raiders? ZERO does not constitute attack.
MadgicSH
Roar Rookie
Are you American? Or do you just get your spelling from TV?
MadgicSH
Roar Rookie
An interesting comment - could you please repeat it in English?
MadgicSH
Roar Rookie
Your grasp on stating the obvious is stunning! But you are right, the ONLY redeeming feature of Newcastle is that it is NOT Sydney.
elvis
Roar Rookie
Here is what I don't understand about coach pressure. Ricky Stuart has had 6 seasons in charge of the Raiders and made the finals once. It's taken him 5 years to put together a team that looks capable of winning. Seibold has had 6 games in charge, he has had time to do precisely nothing. Don't forget Bennett, the supposed greatest coach of all time had half the Qld team and took 5 years to win a premiership. They even missed the finals in 1991, the year before the start of their golden run.
Danwain
Guest
You won't hear an argument from me on that!
Doug Graves
Guest
Tim is 100% correct, 1997 counts for nothing and so does the Dragons 2010 Claytons Cup "premiership".
Superspud
Roar Rookie
Dan I'm telling you that Paul Green is a koala both in the media and on forums such as this. I don't know what the opposite of coach of the year is but Paul Green won it last year.
Danwain
Guest
Paul Green? I truly hope you are joking.... he won a comp off the back of one of the greatest players of all time, since then he has struggled, and is currently in trouble holding onto his job. The mary haters will always be out there, but no one could ever accuse that team of not putting in, pushed the roosters the whole way today with zero luck.
Nick
Roar Guru
It’s a silly decision precisely because the market is so quiet at the moment. there’s zero need to lock in a contract until it’s confirmed there’s no one to replace him. I’d have waited to see whether or not they could have nabbed Paul Green. The club have fallen into the trap that creates itself when you employ former club stalwarts. It’s twice as hard to sack them, and twice as easy to renew a contract without appropriate diligence. Yeah, the Dragons have won 4 in a row, but in a couple of hours we’ll really see how those victories stack up.
Rellum
Roar Guru
And here I thought the NSWRL comp that year was officially recognised.
The Barry
Roar Guru
I don’t have much confidence going into any game. Our best and worst are miles apart so far this season. Hopefully Green gives JT13 another week...!!!
Tim Gore
Expert
Panthers maybe
Tim Gore
Expert
Nothing from 1997 is recognised as it was a split competition. It was a wasted year. No one won. Everyone lost. There was no good and evil. It was just two very rich men arguing over tv rights and using us all as pawns. Anyone who thinks otherwise is still deluded.
danwain
Guest
I've seen this comment around a lot recently, and it has me a little perplexed. I agree there was no need to renew his contract so early in the season, since he is hardly sought after elsewhere, but who else is out there to replace him? He also clearly has the support of the players, you never hear a bad word about him out of the camp, he has to be doing something right. I would also argue that has done a fine job did far this year with injuries, suspensions and external factors combining to disrupt their prep. Winning four in a row is a good effort considering. Sure he has to prove he can maintain this all season, which is a blight on his career did far, but the constant hate he gets makes little sense, particulary when you take into account who could potentially replace him.