After a dreadful start to the season, the Swans have climbed off the bottom of the ladder.
They’ve racked up back-to-back five-point wins. The finest of reinforcements have arrived tonight with Josh Kennedy and Lance Franklin back in the side.
For the Magpies, it was business as usual in Round 9. After being forced to sweat for three quarters, the Pies booted six goals to one in the final term to roll the Saints by the best part of seven goals for their sixth-straight win.
While the Swans get their star forward back, Collingwood will have to make do for another week without theirs – Jordan de Goey is set to miss his second straight match.
Tom Langdon (injured) and Travis Varcoe (suspended) go out of Collingwood’s side, with former NBL player Jack Madgen coming in for his fifth game and forgotten man Daniel Wells returning for his first match since Round 12 last year.
It’s amazing what a difference Buddy makes on paper. Sydney have managed more than 12 goals just once this season, but with Franklin named in the front six with Sam Reid, Will Hayward, Tom McCartin and impressive youngster Nick Blakey, it looks like a dangerous – albeit very tall – attack.
Lance Franklin of the Swans. (Photo by Ryan Pierse/Getty Images)
Luke Parker has been named in the forward pocket as well, and while his aerial capabilities make him a more than capable forward, it’s a fair bet he’ll spend most of the night following the footy.
At the other end of the ground, the Swans will be grateful for de Goey’s absence, but the Magpies still have dangerous players just about everywhere you look. Brody Mihocek, Ben Reid, Jaidyn Stephenson, Will Hoskin-Elliott and Josh Thomas are all capable of booting multiple goals – they combined for 13 last week.
It’s no surprise given their midfield firepower that the numbers are kind to Collingwood.
The Pies are ranked third for contested possession differential – Sydney are dead last – third for inside-50 differential and first for marks inside-50 differential.
In perhaps a sign of what to expect tonight, Collingwood have taken more marks than any other side this season, while the Swans have conceded the fewest.
While the Pies want to control the ball and move it cleanly, the Swans are keen to make things a bit more ugly and chaotic.
That will almost certainly be the plan for John Longmire tonight.
If the Pies can get the ball into the hands of Scott Pendlebury, Steele Sidebottom, Tom Phillips and Wells with time to size things up, there’s not a backline in the league that can clamp Collingwood’s versatile forwards – they’ve topped 100 points in each of the past three weeks.
But if Sydney can turn those kicks into long, high balls, Aliir Aliir, Dane Rampe and Callum Mills can pick the ball off in the air and launch their own attacks.
George Hewett is in outstanding form and coming off one of the best games of his career – 29 disposals, 20 contested possessions and nine clearance – against North Melbourne.
With Kennedy back in the side it will be interesting to see whether Hewett’s priority is hunting the ball or an opponent. He, Parker, Kennedy, Isaac Heeney and Ollie Florent will all need to be close to their best if they’re to break even with Collingwood in the midfield – and even then they’ll need help from the likes of Ryan Clake and Jordan Dawson.
There are few ruckmen in the league who can match Collingwood’s Brodie Grundy around the ground and, unfortunately for the Swans, Callum Sinclair is no exception.
Brodie Grundy’s outstanding play is just one reason for Magpies fans to be optimistic. (Photo by Mark Metcalfe/Getty Images)
However, Sinclair tends to have two or three games every season in which he sticks a few big marks up forward and boots a multiple goals. He’s yet to do so this season, and the Swans would love tonight to be one of those games.
The past two matches between these sides have been thrillers. In Round 20 last year, the Swans got up by two points, while their previous encounter in early 2017, saw the Magpie win by the slimmest of margins.
I can’t see it being so close tonight, but here’s hoping. Collingwood by four goals.
That’s my Friday night forecast. What’s yours?
WCE
Roar Rookie
Franklin will retire at the end of the season
Peter the Scribe
Roar Guru
Apologies I was 2 points out.
Yattuzzi
Roar Rookie
challenged but good win
Peter the Scribe
Roar Guru
No. It was as I predicted. A close Pies win.
Yattuzzi
Roar Rookie
Peter, I have just had premonition. I think the pies may go down. They always do poor in Sydney. They, like the cats are due for a loss. Game on?
Omnitrader
Roar Rookie
I think buddy tends to have a negative impact on the team set up, when he is out they have multiple targets up front and are not reliant on buddy ball. Kennedy in the middle is definitely a bonus though.
Fat Toad
Roar Rookie
Madgen might be a good match up on Buddy, he was definitely serviceable last time. For mine, I think Collingwood would like to see Buddy play at a true FF and lead up. This makes it easier to cut off his supply by attacking the Swans mids. Additionally, it tends to smoother the opportunities for other Swans forwards. I never really understood why Rowan was not more effective for the Swans because he seemed to have all the features for a second marking forward, but as he said the set up with Franklin in it really kept him in areas where he was not really a threat. If Franklin plays high, I think the challenge is to find how to fill the space behind him to stop him leading back or having it filled by small Swans running players. If Franklin plays high you might see the Pies using a zone and using the small SCG to assist in coverage.
Kurt
Guest
The Swans simply didn't have an escape plan from the back half last week (particularly once Jones went down) and Collingwood's forwards will pressure them much more than North Melbourne's. I loved that they were able to repel so many repeat entries last week, but I'm not sure they can do it twice in a row with a much more tightly-drilled side on their backs.
Doctor Rotcod
Roar Rookie
The Eagles won by four goals in Round 3 with the above-mentioned all in the Pies side. Sydney a half-decent chance,by three points. Buddy with a seventy metre roost to win it.
Michael
Guest
Picked Essendon by 4 goals a fortnight ago, so looks like we're on for a Swans victory this evening.
Peter the Scribe
Roar Guru
Mr Toad, with Langdon and Moore out there goes our premier intercept defenders leaving Howe only. They will want Howe to be the main intercept defender so have brought Madgen in to play on Buddy IMO. If Buddy doesn't play I expect Madgen to miss and Quaynor to come in. (Quaynor and Daicos are the travelling emergencies)
Peter the Scribe
Roar Guru
Josh Kennedy is a huge in for the Swans besides Bud. I'm thinking they will have Rupert Wills playing a negating midfield role on him. The Pis still have a lot of class in the middle and Grudny should dominate again. Up forward we have a lot of types who can get scrappy SCG style goals which should get us over the line by 9 points in a thriller.
DingoGray
Roar Guru
Bud & JK return.... Couple out for the Pies....$2.75 for the Swans now looks juicey..... Still think Pies will do what they've been doing all year, not playing at their absolute best but find a way.
Jet
Guest
I’ve been loving the changing approach of the Swans the past few weeks. Quicker movement, less predictable. But they’ve been up against much weaker sides. Have a feeling this will be a thud back to earth for the young guys against a quality team, albeit lessened with a few outs. But will be another important part of their ongoing development. Hope I’m totally wrong though and Buddy/Kennedy ins make a massive difference and we cling on in another nail biter. Yeah. Nah.
Cat
Roar Guru
Certainly a danger game now. I’ll have to root for Sydney. Two games clear on top of the ladder would be nice. Cats will drop one soon too probably. If not there is always our annual after bye disaster.
IAP
Guest
Me too. Having Bud back will be a big lift for the Swans, and they'll strangle Collingwood's run on the small ground. I'm tempted to change my tip.
Fat Toad
Roar Rookie
If you were going to clamp Collingwood, the SCG is the ground for it! The BOM are predicting dry conditions which may help Sydney as I think the Swans are likely to have less skill in the wet than the Pies. The sleeper on this is how much dew on the ground may effect the ball. I am not entirely sure that Buddy is going to be a big advantage. If he is on, he is unstoppable. He will be rested, but he may not be fully aerobically fit. If he plays high it should create space behind him for younger speedsters, but if he plays deep, it gives Collingwood a better chance to cut off supply. I would like to see who ever matches against Buddy try to run off him at every chance particularly early in the game to test how much run he has and see if he will flame out in the late stages of each quarter and the end of the game.
peter chrisp
Guest
Peter TS i hope you are right on the outcome, it will be a tough game with a number of our "stars" out.
Elliot Heath
Roar Rookie
Have a sneaky feeling the swans will steal this one
Peter the Scribe
Roar Guru
Buddy and JK back for the Swans and no Cox, Elliott, De Goey, Adams, Langdon and Moore for Pies. This could be the overdue loss for the Pies but I think we will still get it done by a low margin.