Australia should play two spinners against the West Indies on Thursday to prey upon their relative weakness against slow bowlers.
In their nine one-day matches across the past month the Windies batsmen have showed a clear preference for facing fast bowling.
In that time quicks have averaged 42 against the Windies compared to 49 for spinners, but the key metric has been the economy rates. Pacemen have been thrashed at 6.85 runs per over by the Windies, while spinners have been very frugal, conceding just 5.03 runs an over.
Meanwhile, leading cricket analytics firm CricViz this week revealed that, since the Champions Trophy two years ago, the West Indies have been one of the world’s weakest sides against spin in ODIs.
For some time now I have believed spin is the key to limiting the damage of the teams who bat in an ultra-aggressive fashion in ODIs.
The West Indies and England line-ups both brim with batsmen who take on the ODI game almost as if it’s a T20. Rather than seeking to build an innings they immediately look to bully the bowlers.
Spinners have dominated T20 cricket for years now because of the greater difficulty – for most batsmen at least – of clattering them from ball one. So it would make sense that slow bowlers are crucial to taming ODI teams that bat with T20 intensity.
I would argue this is particularly so on the small English grounds where pace on the ball can be a liability.
Australia should have learned that during their forgettable five-match ODI series in England last year. As they were thumped 5-0 in that series, Australia’s pacemen conceded a whopping 7.1 runs per over, while Australia’s two spinners (Ashton Agar and Nathan Lyon) gave up a miserly 5.1 runs per over.
Nate Lyon (AAP Image/Darren England)
Lyon was remarkably economical in his two matches in that series considering the manner in which England’s batting line-up was cutting loose.
He went at just 4.11 runs per over in those two matches in England. While the veteran is not a major wicket taking threat in ODIs, he is one of the most frugal bowlers in the format.
Across his 25 ODIs he has conceded just 4.86 runs per over, and was similarly difficult to score off in the three recent warm-up matches he played, giving up just 4.96 runs per over.
That included a spell of 1-37 from 10 overs against England late last month.
The veteran off spinner would also be suited by the wealth of left handers in the West Indian line-up. Bowling from around the wicket and targeting the stumps, Lyon is at his best against left handers and the West Indies have four of them in their top six.
Meanwhile, Adam Zampa remains Australia’s most threatening spinner and should be retained for this match despite a patchy display against Afghanistan.
Zampa was expensive in that match but he also took three important wickets. It is the contrast between Zampa’s attacking style and Lyon’s defensiveness which has made them an effective spin combination this year.
Adam Zampa celebrates with Steve Smith. (AAP Image/Paul Miller)
They played together in seven of Australia’s eight consecutive wins in ODIs leading into this tournament.
Against the West Indies Lyon should take the place of third seamer Nathan Coulter-Nile. It would be a tough call on the West Australian, who has a fine ODI record and bowled well against the Windies in the warm-up match, taking 2-25 from six overs.
But he has been poor since that fixture, taking 1-97 at nearly seven runs per over in Australia’s past two matches.
Coulter-Nile also tends to run hot and cold more so than Lyon and when he has an off day it tends to get very ugly. That was the case against England when Coulter-Nile was blasted for 61 runs from six overs, despite England missing a couple of key batsmen.
He still has a important role to play in this tournament, particularly if Australia play on any moist pitches. But picking the right attack for the right opponent is crucial in World Cups and two spinners is clearly the way to go against the West Indies.
JD St George
Roar Pro
I’m sorry I just had to remind you of this comment after NCN’s 92. Hahahhahahahahahahah
Sometimes Steve
Roar Rookie
"Is NCN that much better with the bat ?" Hahahaha If it wasn't clear to you before Jeffrey, it is now. This is what selectors knew, it's not just looking at averages and strike rate on a piece of paper.
Ronan O'Connell
Expert
Yes absolutely.
VivGilchrist
Roar Rookie
Really looking forward to the changes the Crows are going to make this week.
JD St George
Roar Pro
Late 2017 and early 2018. Pretty poor record in ODIs with a 44 average but a pretty good ER. I’m not NCN’s biggest fan but his ODI average in a similar amount of ODIs to Lyons is 27.
Ouch
Roar Rookie
How recent is recent? He's also gotten better in recent years too.
JD St George
Roar Pro
I actually agree. He's been hit for 30+ runs in an over twice by David Willey and Alex Ross in recent years. The stats against the West Indies could be skewed by the likes of Rashid Khan and Imran Tahir but Lyon just isn't in the same ballpark.
Bunney
Roar Rookie
Glad you said it here Ronan... Can't agree more. I'd even give Finch an over and see what happens
Paul
Roar Guru
Your arguments make sense, Ronan, but what about pitch & weather conditions? Trent Bridge has not been a great place for our bowlers given last years shambles, but it would be equally risky taking spinners onto a ground if there's potential for movement with the ball. If it's fine and little cloud cover, then the 2 spinners for sure.
Brian
Guest
With the West Indies you will usually be close to bowling them out by the death overs as they 6+ wickets down. If not your in trouble no matter who's bowling
Peter Warrington
Guest
yes that is terrible luck - but better than I imagined, when he had to head home. here's to a quick recovery and being ready for the summer. they are redhot for Harris AND Bancroft. don't rule out Bangers as their #6. Warner Harris Khawaja Smith Head Bancroft --- Patterson as reserve Mitch Marsh as "allrounder" Labu as spare man/bits and piecer/"spinner". another 20 would have to head home for Maxi to come into contention I reckon.
JamesH
Roar Guru
I just heard! :( At least it simplifies selection of the Ashes openers. Warner and Harris, with Bancroft a smokey.
DaveJ
Roar Rookie
Good idea. And if not, Lyon should play ahead of Zampa against all those left handers. Zampa is hardly turning the ball on English pitches. If Zampa doesn’t improve very quickly, we only have 2 good bowlers out of 5, which is a recipe for failure. We’re going to miss Hazlewood sorely.
JamesH
Roar Guru
I didn't say that though, did I? I just pointed out it's an asset we lose if NCN is omitted. If the brains trust isn't factoring that in then they aren't doing their job. And he's not a 'backup' death option. That still implies that the team only needs two pacemen capable of bowling at the death. I can't imagine Starc and Cummins will have more than 6 overs left between the after the 40th over, which still leaves around four overs to be bowled by others in the last 10.
Ronan O'Connell
Expert
I certainly would not go pace heavy against a dangerous batting lineup that prefers pace just because of worries about who will be the backup death bowling option.
13th Man
Guest
Give Gayle a bit of short stuff and test out that bad back of his. If it isn't working then switch to spin.
13th Man
Guest
I agree with this. Lyon must play against the Windies left handers in their top order. NCN didn't look fantastic vs the Afghans and last night the deck at Trent Bridge did take a little bit of turn. Not sure if it'll be on the same deck or a different one but I think it would be a good move.
Ronan O'Connell
Expert
"That’s one of the risks you take with a guy like Gayle. If he’s on it doesn’t matter who’s bowling to him." That remains to be seen though, it's one thing for Gayle to belt 135kmh bowlers, another thing to belt Rabada/Starc/Cummins bowling at 150kmh.
JamesH
Roar Guru
I'm not disputing that, Ronan. I'm saying that NCN is a better at the death than the other options for our fourth specialist bowler. You need more than two pace bowlers capable of bowling at the death so if he doesn't play then the third death seamer is Stoinis.
Gurlivleen Grewal
Roar Pro
Good call Ronan. More than stats even in the warmups - the WI guys, otherwise batting serenely were relatively struggling against NZ spinners. In their matches against Eng - Moeen struggled but Tahir albeit expensive got wickets - which is the only defense. Lyon has the chops to take out Gayle, Lewis/Bravo - if at all they last so long! I will go with Starc (4), Cummins (5) with one over for Maxwell/Lyon in the first 10. Yes, there will be few edges and boundaries but with that pace, they should get past the openers. Also, to budget 3 overs of Zampa in 40-50. And 2 each of Starc, Cummins. Things change ofc if Dre Russ comes out. Predict a pretty typical, heavy defeat of Windies.