The cold, hard reality that New South Wales must face going into State of Origin Game 2 in Perth this Sunday is that the series is almost positively already gone.
If they are to win the three game series, they must defy history.
Looking at the hard facts, Freddy Fittler really only has a Bradbury’s hope: He’ll need his opponents to fall over if he’s to win.
Why? Well, the numbers are bad.
Really bad.
Losing Game one of the State of Origin series is a really bad thing to do historically. Of the 34 series that have been won (the series were drawn in 1999 and 2002) 25 of them were taken out by the side that won the first encounter.
That’s 73.5 per cent of the time. So overall the Blues have only a one in four chance of prevailing in this series. Bookies love you wagering on those kind of odds.
However, that’s not the full story. Of the nine occasions when a side has come back from a one-nil deficit in the series to take the shield, nearly 80 per cent of the time it has been Queensland who have done it.
| State of Origin come backs from one-nil down in the series | |
|---|---|
| Year | Victor |
| 1982 | Queensland came back to win the series after losing Game One 16-20 at Lang Park |
| 1987 | Queensland came back to win the series after losing Game One 16-20 at Lang Park |
| 1994 | NSW came back to win the series after losing Game One 12-16 at the SFS |
| 2005 | NSW came back to win the series after losing Game One 20-24 at Suncorp Stadium |
| 2006 | Queensland came back to win the series after losing Game One 16-17 at ANZ Stadium |
| 2008 | Queensland came back to win the series after losing Game One 10-18 at ANZ Stadium |
| 2013 | Queensland came back to win the series after losing Game One 6-14 at ANZ Stadium | 2017 | Queensland came back to win the series after losing Game One 4-28 at Suncorp Stadium |
That’s most probably because State of Origin belongs to Queensland.
It doesn’t belong to New South Wales, who routinely play the role of the Washington Generals to the Queensland’s Harlem Globetrotters.
When the Blues have come back from a one-nil deficit there have been some pretty good reasons too.
The last time the Blues achieved the feat was fifteen years ago in 2005, when a fairly handy half by the name of Andrew Johns returned to the NSW team for the second two games.
While the future immortal had only just come back from injury ten days beforehand, coach Ricky Stuart rushed Johns back into the side in place of Brett Kimmorley and to help cover the injured Trent Barrett.
It was the right call.
John’s was the man of the match, orchestrating the Blues attack and defence in a manner that the jilted Kimmorley had been unable to. Johns went on with the job in game three, leading his side to a 32-10 victory at Suncorp Stadium.
While he was already regarded as a superb half before that series, his exploits in games two and three were arguably two of his finest ever performances.
Before that instance you have to go way back to 1994.
In all fairness to Queensland, NSW should not have lost Game 1. I was there that night at the Sydney Football Stadium, on the eastern side in Row E of Bay 37.
While much of that night was a total blur, I remember it was Row E clearly as myself and two of my already heavily intoxicated associates – all having had quite the well lubricated Murrays bus ride up the Hume – had an animated debate with the people in Row EE about being in our seats.
Up to the 74th minute that heated interaction (which ended with our embarrassment, sincere apologies and scurrying off to join our bus load of comrades who had been yelling to try and get our attention the whole time) had been the most eventful part of the evening.
The Blues had been leading 12-4 with six to go and were controlling the game. A Willie Carne try in the 75th minute put some interest back into the game but clearly the Maroons had too much to do and too far to go.
Truth be told I only remember two things from that night because of my alcohol addled state: the argument in Row EE and the Mark Coyne miracle try – or rather its aftermath.
As a Raiders fan, and ACT born and bred (the ACT is not part of NSW – check the Constitution of Australia if in doubt), I had a foot in both camps.
Sure, Ricky Stuart, Laurie Daley, Brett Mullins, Ken Nagas and Brad Clyde played for NSW that series.
However, Mal Meninga and – one of my all-time favourite players – Steve Walters played for Queensland. I wished them nothing but good.
In fact, that night I was wearing my circa 1990 official Canberra Raiders Video Ezy lime green with the number nine on the back and the great Boxhead’s signature on the shoulder.
When Big Mal got that second last touch I thought he’d go all the way and I involuntarily stood up and loudly yelled “MAAAAAAAAAAALLLLLLLLLLLL!”
Seconds later Row E of Bay 37 on the eastern side of the SFS was inundated with beer, water, cups, carrying trays, pieces of pie and hot dogs and lord knows what else. Detritus, filth and abuse rained down upon my highly aggrieved comrades and myself.
I suspect my ‘friends’ up in Row EE joined in too.
Safe to say that I wasn’t the most popular bloke on the coach on the way back down the Hume…
The current state coaches faced off on the field in that famous game, with Kevin Walters one of the many Queenslanders who handled the ball in the last play of the game, and Fittler the tackler who was unable to stop Coyne’s desperate lunge for the line.
That match featured six current top grade coaches as players: Ricky Stuart, Brad Fittler, Paul McGregor, Dean Pay, Kevin Walters and Mal Meninga.
Just as Andrew Johns’ comeback in Game Two of 2005 was special, Game One of 1994 was one out of the box.
For Game two at the MCG NSW welcomed back a rather handy defensive pairing in Brad Clyde and Brad Mackay. They allowed just two more tries to be conceded in the ensuing 160 minutes of football.
Those are the only two times out of the 19 when NSW have lost Game 1 and gone on to win the series. That’s just 10.5 per cent win ratio when one down. You could say that it’s as common as a blue moon. Bookies really love you betting on odds like that!
And those aren’t the only really crappy statistics facing Fittler’s Blues either. An established fact is that settled sides more often than not win the series.
Of the 36 three game series that have been played since 1982, 24 of them (66.66 per cent) have been won by the side that has used the fewest players.
There have been four series when both teams used the same amount of players (2015, 2005, 2000 and 1985). Those series have been split 50/50.
Only six times (17.6 per cent) has the state using more players during the series held the shield aloft (QLD 2017 +9, NSW 2014 +1, QLD 2006 +2, NSW 2004 +6, NSW 1994 +1, NSW 1993 +1).
At the conclusion of Game 2, NSW will have already used 24 players to Queensland’s 19. For Queensland both the changes – Joe Ofahengaue and Jai Arrow – have been forced through injury.
For NSW unavoidably gone are the injured David Klemmer, Nic Cotric and Payne Haas. However, Cody Walker, Josh Morris, Angus Crichton and Latrell Mitchell have just been dropped cold – the latter inexplicably.
Walker may be the 54th New South Wales representative to only play a single game. After Game 2 Queensland will only have 19 players with that honour. They don’t like to shuffle the deck chairs too much north of the Tweed. While down south they can’t seem to help themselves…
However, not everything is against Freddy Fittler and his boys. The chances of the series going to a decider in Sydney on 10 July are about even. 19 of the 36 series to date (52.8 per cent) have gone to a deciding game.
Brad Fittler
And if New South Wales can get back to Sydney on even terms for Game Three in July, and they can stay upright and in the race, maybe – just maybe – the Maroons will fall over.
But I’m not putting my hard earned on it…
Kewl
Guest
Spear tackle Munster and we win, it’s not hard, we need a kill mentality
Griffo
Guest
If you look at Boyd's first try that night, two tackles before Thurston went to Inglis and Merritt rushes up on him to deny him time and space. Obviously Thurston noticed this because 2 tackles later he dummies to Inglis then cuts him out with a pass to Boyd who runs over to score unmarked.
Geoff from Bruce Stadium
Roar Rookie
Don't give a toss about stats - even though I work with them all the time in my job. I can see the Blues winning this one in Perth and then going on to win the decider in Sydney. Queensland had the home town advantage in Game 1 and now that's gone. Neutral venue will favour NSW and the confidence they get from that game will help them cream the Maroons in Sydney. I love the look of the NSW bench and Wighton and Tommy Turbo in the centres. The only regret I have is BJ Leilua would have been sensational at right centre if he was fit.
Papi Smurf
Roar Rookie
If I only I could. But I do dopey pretty well without any help, clearly. :-(
Chris.P.Bacon
Guest
I blame Tim's sub editor! :)
John
Guest
QLD have also never lost a State of Origin match when I watch the game on Kayo.
Haskins
Guest
SOO3 ticket sales are going OK so no need for a NSW win to sell that out. BTW as a Canberran? do you think that they should be called the NSW/ACT Blues or just the Blues because Canberra born and bred players Cotric and Vaughan play in the side despite the laws stating they are (save for a dodgy under 20 SOO selection when they are not NSW born) not eligible for selection.
BA Sports
Roar Guru
NSW have also never lost a State of Origin match when a Saifiti brother plays.
Nat
Roar Guru
"...then JAC would have had a clear path down the left touchline and would either have scored in the corner or linked up with supports to score under the posts" NSW were 1m out from the line. Gagai was the one who run 99m to score from the intercept. Baaahahaha I can just see JAC hitting top speed, swerving in/out and setting up his support players for a try under the sticks... LOL Poor old Merritt. 218 games with Souths - 4 finals appearances. 2 games for NSW City 0 wins. 1 game for NSW and cost them the game and a series win. 18 of 26 points coming down his edge. Did Laurie make him miss as many tackles as he made (2ea)? The guy ran for 31m! A winger running for 31m - that's one kick return! Laurie's fault again? There hasn't been a performance that bad since, Cody Walker. The only half to get hooked in Origin.
Papi Smurf
Roar Rookie
"and throwing that floater to Gagai, the Blues would have won the game!" Agreed. If Wighton had dummied and then thrown the ball after the line, behind Gagai who was committed, then JAC would have had a clear path down the left touchline and would either have scored in the corner or linked up with supports to score under the posts. Wighton panicked under pressure pure and simple. Just like Matt Moylan and Mitchell Pearce. And NO, not like Nathan Merritt. Laurie Daley admitted post-game that Merritt was under his instructions to repeatedly rush in on Inglis. It was a coaching failure NOT Nathan Merritt's.
Papi Smurf
Roar Rookie
Did I do that? Seriously? I'm definitely slipping up. Too much time spent picking up bad habits from former associates who are still stuck in remedial English. ;-)
eels47
Roar Rookie
*farewell Sorry, couldn't help myself
Papi Smurf
Roar Rookie
I had a drink with Brad MacKay at St George Leagues Club after a game once. Not as a mate, just joe public after a few drinks and with a word of advice. MacKay was obliging and polite. This was before he had any rep experience. I told him he was one of the most underrated players in the game and that he was going to play Origin for NSW and also for Australia before much longer. He looked at me incredulously and laughed. He thought I was having him on. A month or two later he was selected for NSW and not long after that for Australia. True story. Btw, I also said the same thing to Nathan Merritt once after a game at Gosford (about him playing Origin). Same reaction as MacKay and a month later he was picked for NSW. Again, true story.
steveng
Roar Rookie
All I can say is ‘Blues by 10 no worries’ forget those irrelevant stats, as the first game was so close that stats mean nothing, if it wasn’t for that silly brain snap from Wighton (which Wighton does all the time for the Raiders) and his inexperience (which amazes me why he was picked for game2, especially replacing Mitchell??? WHY FREDDY???) and throwing that floater to Gagai, the Blues would have won the game! The team that the Blues have for game2 is a better team than in game1. The only weakness I see is Jack Wighton and Nathan Cleary who has to really step up and do more and be right in there with Maloney.
Papi Smurf
Roar Rookie
Honestly, Mark Gasnier would do a better job in Game 2 than Jack Wighton. At least Gasnier has scored plenty of tries for NSW and he never handed a try to QLD on a platter. Face it, Jack Wighton is a Ricky Stuart hype-job just like Joseph Tapine. Neither player lives up to the hype that "Sticky Stuart" vomits over them.
Papi Smurf
Roar Rookie
"an immediate release or for 2019" They are the same thing genius! What a monkey statement that was. I wish I could blame it on FTS but that THS instead, Thick Head Syndrome not Fat Thumb Syndrome. ...an immediate release or for 2020, obviously.
mushi
Roar Guru
Though when you factor in a margin of error because it isn’t exactly 2000 data points it’s pretty much inline right. (and begs the question did we need an article where half of the information is covered in primary school.) Where it does show hope is if you look at other analysts in other sports, and thus taking in a much broader set of data, that needing to win 2 on the trot is actually closer to the ~22% because on balance the team winning the first game has demonstrated some level of superiority over the loser. But again the smallish data set puts it still within a comparable realm. The ~50% going to a decider is likewise the obvious assumption from the outset.
Mick Jeffrey
Roar Rookie
Article mentions Brad Mackay returning for Origin 2 in 1994.....he actually scored the try that made it 10-4 to NSW in Game 1 which was converted by the unrelated Graham Mackay.
Papi Smurf
Roar Rookie
I'm hearing that Jaydn Su'A (Broncos) is a done deal for the Rabbitohs. They are just waiting for the paperwork to clear. Not 100% on whether it is an immediate release or for 2019. I'm also hearing that the Roosters are trying to offload Angus Crichton and are quietly shopping him around. No word as to whether Souths are interested in re-signing him with the Roosters picking up the balance of his contract going forward. No doubt the Roosters are desperately trying to free up room under the salary cap to NOT get into the bidding war they said they would avoid for Latrell Mitchell.
RoryStorm
Guest
Maloney will create a couple of easy tries but unfortunately he will give away a couple of stupid penalties that lead to tries as well as throwing his usual intercept gifting Qld 3 tries all up. NSW to be just in front by a couple of points with a minute to go and for reasons only he knows, Wade Graeme will give away a stupid penalty 30 meters out, right in front of the posts costing his team the game. All this with a silly grin on his face. I can only pray this doesn't happen.