Australia seem to be on the verge of dropping Glenn Maxwell for today’s semi-final against England, which would leave them with a worrying lack of middle-order power.
Comments made by coach Justin Langer and captain Aaron Finch suggest Peter Handscomb and Marcus Stoinis will play, while Matthew Wade is a strong chance to replace Maxwell.
Finch told the media Steve Smith was likely to move up to number three and that if Wade did play he would be positioned “near the top” of the order.
Piecing all of this together, it seems Australia are looking at a top five of Finch, David Warner, Smith, Wade and Handscomb. That leaves Stoinis and wicketkeeper-batsman Alex Carey at six and seven, with the all-rounder needing to bat ahead of Carey because of how slowly he starts his innings.
Stoinis is best suited to batting in the top four – his constant dawdling starts make him a liability in the middle order.
If the pitch is a belter and Australia find themselves needing to set or chase a big total against England’s high-scoring lineup, then having Stoinis at six or seven instead of Maxwell will put huge pressure on Carey, who is the only batsman listed above between five and seven with a proven ability to strike boundaries regularly from the start of his innings.
Alex Carey (Photo by Christopher Lee-IDI/IDI via Getty Images)
Maxwell has been granted patience because of his ability to score so much faster than anyone else in the lineup. This year, he has averaged 34 in ODIs while scoring at 8.04 runs per over. Stoinis, meanwhile, has averaged 25 while scoring at 4.85.
Given the solidity of Australia’s top five, and Carey’s hot form at seven, what they are most likely to need out of their number six is not an accumulator-style innings but a sprinting 40 or so.
Based on their strike rates this year, to make 40 runs Stoinis chews up 50 balls compared to just 30 deliveries for Maxwell, which makes it clear cut who is the better option to bat at six against the fastest-scoring team in ODI cricket.
Not only would the above predicted batting lineup place greater responsibility on Carey to score at a scorching rate, it would also put added pressure on the top three to be more aggressive.
Australia’s batting method in this World Cup has been to build slowly. They have looked to minimise risks in their first 30-35 overs, keep wickets in hand, then attack.
With Handscomb, Stoinis and Carey at five, six and seven, could Australia be confident of blazing 100 from the final ten overs? I don’t think so. No one in the world scores as quickly from their first 20 balls at the crease as Maxwell. It is this rare ability that Australia have nurtured, seemingly waiting for a day like today.
Now that the day has arrived, they instead look set to go with a batting all-rounder in Stoinis, who has been awful with the blade for his past 25 ODIs and has just suffered two side strains.
Australia’s think thank have done a solid job of late with their selections. But keeping Stoinis and axing Maxwell would be a mistake.
Fox
Roar Guru
So you are saying that an average of 22 batting where he does is good? So you are saying in an era where 300+ is common you are happy with guy batting at where he does to just regularly get you 22 of those runs and that is if you are lucky ? It is not hard to have a strike rate that high or in 120+ range if you are just to belt 22 runs of 16 deliveries then get out
Insult_2_Injury
Roar Rookie
He was set at 5, elevated to 4 in a game with a couple of overs left and dropped to 6 and 7 at the end of the tournament when it was obvious he had made 130 runs and more was needed higher in the order.
Peter Warrington
Guest
ok. this is interesting. please list: - scores - aggregate - number of dismissals - equation - solution please show working to get full marks calculators allowed or are you being funky and using the median or something real clever like that, re-writing 150 years of cricket statistics?
Peter Warrington
Guest
Finchy! WHy didn't you bowl?
Waxhead
Roar Rookie
Well you can't do maths cos it's 11.7 :)
PG
Guest
Oops, sorry Peter, you beat me to it
PG
Guest
Maxwell's average this WC is 22 not 11
Peter Warrington
Guest
fascinating he was averaging 22 before last night's game, and scored - you guessed it - 22! meaning an average of.... 22! strike rate of a beautifully non-rounded 150. #maxwellaveraged22
Peter Warrington
Guest
add 7 to the repertoire
Waxhead
Roar Rookie
@Peter The real number is 11.7 That was Maxwell's batting average in this world cup :)
Fox
Roar Guru
Yes but Handscomb is only in the side because of injury -Carey has delivered pretty well at this WC and played a decent innings with Smith at the other end – Stoinis has been stronger overall in the WC with batting and bowling though his place in the side long term should also be in question. Maxwell has been the most disappointing of Carey and Stoinis and this tag he has of ‘the big show’ – not that he gave it to himself to be fair him – but it is becoming a bit farcical considering his performances at this WC which is the big show where the best players turn up to make a difference on a more consistent basis than Maxwell has. But then maybe that is unfair as you would not rate Maxwell as one of the world’s best ODI players by any stretch of the imagination except in his fielding but that is not enough.
Peter Warrington
Guest
restating that "fact" on more than one thread doesn't make it any more accurate provide the real number, plz?
Peter Warrington
Guest
you mean another soft one, after Handscomb and Carey and Stoinis?
Waxhead
Roar Rookie
To all the G. Maxwell fanboys take note plz. Maxwell’s batting ave in this world cup was 11.7. As is normal for him he failed again last night in the semi final when Australia needed him most. Maxwell has a long history of failing under pressure. He can look fantastic against ordinary attacks on flat Aussie pitches when it doesn’t matter. But put any major pressure on him on a swinging, or spinning pitch, and he folds every time. He can’t perform under pressure in big matches and …… is poor on swinging, seaming or spinning pitches. How many times does this have to proven to you fanboys before you understand that some players just don’t have what it takes to handle the big games …. or adversity. Maxwell is 30 now. He's had multiple chances and was not good enough to prosper in Test or 1 day internationals. Punt to him to T20 if you like - I got no interest in that pretend cricket anyway. Move on – next plz ????
Fox
Roar Guru
Yes but as Vaughan said - has has been susceptible to the quicker bowlers and the bouncer in particular. Fact is , he is a very in consistent player and his flaws in his technique have been exposed in this WC as they have been at other times in his career. He had a chance to prove that he could hang around with Smith after Australia were on the rack but failed to take the opportunity and it was another soft dismissal. he has been poor in the WC and Starc when he needed to step up got punished despite having a good WC to be fair to him. The two best sides who performed under the pressure of a semi-final deserve to be in the final.
Scumbags&Superstars
Roar Rookie
Should never play for Australia again.
Nik
Roar Rookie
Well in the semi-final he was done by “no pace”
Fox
Roar Guru
Yet again he done by pace and yet again he is a no show - poor world cup for him - his prime role is batting and he has not delivered under pressure _ I think is time to end the championing of Maxwell who is to hit and miss and too often miss - his issue is some glaring flaws in his technique which seem to get more exposed against the real quicks
Jeff
Roar Rookie
I'd be dialing it up to Defcon 1 angriness right now
TheCunningLinguistic
Roar Rookie
Stoinis shouldn't bat, he shouldn't even be carrying the drinks. Put him on the plane back to Oz.