Australia were already underdogs for the upcoming Ashes but their task looks even tougher now given the hot form of key English players and the confidence and momentum earned by their World Cup win.
England stars Joe Root, Ben Stokes, Jos Buttler and Jonny Bairstow are all flying with the bat, while the fine touch of quicks Chris Woakes, Jofra Archer and Mark Wood has now given the hosts considerable bowling depth.
Aside from veteran swing bowler James Anderson, every one of England’s most valuable Test players was on the field as they claimed their first World Cup in a phenomenal final against New Zealand.
Anderson, Root, Stokes, Bairstow, Buttler and Woakes are the core of this England Test team in home conditions. If fit, I expect all six of those cricketers to play the first Test in 15 days from now, alongside an uncertain top three, one out of Moeen Ali and Adil Rashid, and either Archer or Wood.
No Stuart Broad? Yes, that’s right.
I don’t expect the veteran to play in the Ashes opener if Anderson is healthy. In addition to Anderson, England surely will want the variety offered by express pace and in Wood and Archer they have two appealing options.
Then the third pace spot would be between Woakes and Broad, with Sam Curran also considered. Woakes, these days, is a vastly better batsman than Broad and England love batting deep.
Plus, Woakes owns a dominant Test record in the UK, with 54 wickets at 23, and is coming off an impressive World Cup in which he took 16 wickets at 27.
(Photo by Cameron Spencer/Getty Images)
Broad, meanwhile, is currently having limited impact in county cricket, taking just 17 wickets from seven matches at an average of 30. His lack of penetration is highlighted by the fact that out of the top 35 wicket takers in Division One, Broad has the second worst strike rate at 69.
Australian Peter Siddle, by comparison, has taken 32 wickets at 20 in the same division with a strike rate of 47. Broad’s experience and previous success against Australia is a selling point. But I don’t think that will be enough to overcome the bowling form and batting value of Woakes.
England will love the idea of unleashing Anderson, Woakes and Archer/Wood against the Australian batsmen on a seaming pitch. Although the Aussie bowling attack has done a solid job during their recent Ashes losses in England, their batting has been brittle.
This has been particularly so on surfaces offering sideways movement. While Broad may be searching for touch, his long-time new ball partner Anderson is in terrifyingly good nick.
England’s all-time leading Test wicket taker has torn Division Two to shreds this season with 30 wickets at 9. Anderson took only ten wickets in three Tests in the last Ashes in England, but since then he has run amok in home Tests, taking 102 wickets at 16 from 20 matches.
England will have the luxury of either pairing Anderson with the seam, swing and accuracy of Woakes, or going for greater contrast by handing the new ball to one of the intimidating pair of Archer and Wood.
As well as Archer bowled in the World Cup, taking 20 wickets at 23, Wood may have the edge on him due to having been man of the match in England’s most recent Test. Long known for his short run-up, Wood lengthened his approach before that Test in the West Indies, and has since enjoyed the best form of his career.
Complementing these quicks will be Stokes, who is in equally ominous touch.
The all-rounder was a strong contender for the World Cup player of the tournament after taking seven wickets at 35 to go with 465 runs at 66, a haul which featured several pivotal knocks, including in the final.
Widely known as a hitter in white ball cricket, Stokes showed admirable technique, composure and doggedness with the blade in this World Cup. He looks ready for a massive Ashes with the bat.
England’s James Anderson has a tremendous Ashes record (AP Photo/Kirsty Wigglesworth)
What’s more is that Stokes’ recent bowling form in Tests has been scorching, with 29 wickets at 25 in his past ten matches.
The only weakness in the England attack is in the spin department. Whereas Australia boast an elite Test spinner in Nathan Lyon, England’s slow bowling options are comparatively poor.
Off-spinner Moeen Ali has had a nightmare with the ball in Ashes Tests, averaging 66 from ten matches.
Leggie Adil Rashid, meanwhile, is coming off an ordinary World Cup in which he averaged 48 with the ball. Rashid also has an underwhelming Test bowling record, averaging 40 from 19 matches.
What Rashid and Moeen do offer, though, is batting depth. With the likes of Woakes, Curran and Archer also gifted with the bat, England’s tail will pose a significant challenge to Australia.
So, too, will the middle order, with Root, Stokes, Buttler and Bairstow likely to line up between four and seven. Each of those batsmen has been in tremendous touch in ODIs and will carry with them the confidence earned from their heart-stopping World Cup victory.
Australia will not be easybeats thanks to the quality and experience of the likes of Steve Smith, David Warner, Pat Cummins, Nathan Lyon, Mitchell Starc, Josh Hazlewood, Usman Khawaja and Tim Paine.
That is a very strong core. But with all of England’s key players in fine fettle, the Aussies are up against it.
13th Man
Roar Rookie
I see your point but at the same time I also look at the likes of Dave Warner and Pat Cummins who when they debuted they were complete unknown quantities at test level yet have become 2 of our best players. Roy despite his modest county record has the confidence to make runs against Australia and is a big game player. I for one will be very happy if he is left out from an Australian perspective.
Josh H
Roar Rookie
Disagree entirely. Buttler and Roy especially are complete unknown quantities in the Test arena. Just because they are outstanding in ODIs doesn't mean they have the acumen for the long format. Completely different mindset to adopt, and completely unfamiliar surrounds. At least with Northeast and Jennings, they are specialist Test players. Keep in mind, they have been in the top 5 County run-scorers for the past 3 years. By that logic, last summer Rohit Sharma's selection against Australia in the Tests would have struck more fear into the Aussies than Mayank Agarwal purely by virtue of his Onde-Day status. Yet, Agarwal scored more runs and looked far more comfortable than Sharma did?
Cari
Roar Rookie
That would certainly up set Bairstow, he already thinks he is a better wicket keeper than Buttler without bringing another glove man into the team
Cari
Roar Rookie
That would certainly upset Bairstow, he already thinks he is a better wicket keeper than Buttler without bringing another glove man into the team
FunBus
Roar Rookie
It’s been a long time since there’s been a ‘green seamer’ for a test match in England. What has undone Oz is the ball swinging.
Jeff
Roar Rookie
Although interestingly the way Warner batted in the WC may be a pointer to a different approach at Test level also.
Censored Often
Roar Rookie
Everything you've said is correct but you miss ne thing. These players don't have the heart to stand tough when required. They're more interested in strike rates and instagram posts than scoring a ton at Lords of 200 balls to win a test match.
Censored Often
Roar Rookie
I hope I'm wrong but players like Warner and co proved last tour (at Lords) they have little respect for their test wick, just want to cowboy the ball over the fence. In SA they proved they had no respect for the baggy green. I don't expect these kids have the spine if backed into a corner and tough it out the Steve Waugh way... Although I'd happily stand corrected if they prove me wrong.
Simoc
Guest
The best thing is that we have Smith , Warner to fall back on and hopefully Khawaja will come to the party as he is well capable of. The rest of the batting is a bit of cross fingers and hope for the best. Certainly Harris should open for at least the first two or three tests. He has earnt the spot. As for bowling well we have no reason to change. Starc, Cummins, Hazelwood and Lyon are the incumbents and only Siddle is a worthwhile addition. The rest are weak and no threat to the Poms. But hopefully we'll be competitive and strike early in the first test and go on from there. The Poms are as hot a favourites as they were in the World Cup and they won that, but not easily in the end.
Jeffrey Dun
Roar Rookie
"But the point was more about the potent attack at home ...". Yes, of course it was. And my point was that at Lords and the Oval, England couldn't buy a wicket and they were smashed. England are potent on green seamers, but then, so are Australia. If the pitch doesn't offer much assitance for the bowlers, then the England bowlers struggle.
George
Guest
But the point was more about the potent attack at home - as also exhibited last summer when England won three Tests against India despite their batsmen not scoring heavily (Buttler aside).
Jeff
Roar Rookie
Hi Peter. Well I think the thing is he can have these bursts of absolute destruction. Right circumstances and you can see him getting 2 or 3 in very quick time. Even if he can only last a couple of Tests, if he can pull out those sort of performances it could be enough to swing those matches in Australia's favour and that could be the Ashes for us, especially if we lose a Test to weather/is drawn, noting we currently hold the Urn. Plus England wouldn't know too much about him at this point. As I commented, I think the concept have having a squad and only playing those players is a bit outdated. Get him in playing at some point I say! He is very young, but I wonder how much time he has. Maximum two away Ashes after this as he'd be 30 by the second lot. The odds are against him retaining his speed/being injury free for more than 6 or 7 years you'd think.
Peter Warrington
Guest
couldn't agree more re 7 and 8 which is why Paine/Cummins there bothers me to the point of regicide
Peter Warrington
Guest
i am torn. I really want richo. but he has forever. i do remember us pulling a 2-2 - which is all we need - out of the virtually untried Lillee Colley Massie Hammond Watson pentagram. maybe we should just go for it?!@
13th Man
Roar Rookie
Disagree, Roy is like Warner, a real strike weapon. Sometimes on green wickets the best form of defence is attack, Roy may get out early but he may also come off and score a century in a session. Something that the likes of Jennings and Burns will not do. Buttler as well, for mine he is more than a dasher anyway, I think he is England's best batsman after Root.
dungerBob
Roar Rookie
If Patto touches Wood there might be trouble. :)
Jeffrey Dun
Roar Rookie
"If England leave out the likes of Roy and Buttler for relative unknowns like Jennings and Northeast everyone in Australia would breathe a collective sigh of relief. " I wouldn't ! If England produce green seamers for the ashes then Roy and Buttler are the very batsmen I would hope England pick.
Tycoch22
Roar Rookie
Completely agree
Tycoch22
Roar Rookie
Foakes current form is not good both with bat and gloves
Tycoch22
Roar Rookie
Jennings not a unknown - he has failed repeatedly at test level