Australia look set to face their worst nightmare in the first Ashes Test – a moist, seaming pitch.
This appears likely considering the state of past surfaces at Edgbaston, combined with Australia’s floundering efforts on a damp Southampton deck, and the fact England’s two quickest bowlers are injured.
The unavailability of in-form express bowlers Jofra Archer and Mark Wood means the hosts will field a gentle-paced attack at a venue where Australia were rolled for 130 on Day 1 in the last Ashes.
The likes of James Anderson, Chris Woakes, Stuart Broad and Sam Curran are far more dangerous on seaming decks so that’s just what they’ll get for the first Test.
England have openly admitted in the past that they ask their home curators to prepare pitches which favour them.
After watching Australia’s batsmen crumble on a juicy surface this week, the home side will be in no doubt as to the kind of Edgbaston pitch that will best suit them.
Australia’s inability to adapt to seaming decks has cruelled them in the past four Ashes in the UK.
England’s James Anderson (AAP Image/David Moir)
In the 2015 series, Australia obliterated England on the two pitches which were fine for batting (Lord’s and The Oval), but were hammered on the three surfaces that offered more help to the bowlers (Edgbaston, Trent Bridge and Cardiff).
That series was decided across the third and fourth matches, which featured lively Day 1 pitches. Australia were humiliated on the opening day of both, rolled for 136 at Edgbaston and then 60 at Trent Bridge.
By the time they flogged England by an innings and 46 runs in the fifth Test, on a much drier surface, the damage had already been done.
Once again, this series will rest on whether Australia’s batsmen can overcome seaming conditions. The signs are not good so far.
Incredibly, 17 wickets fell on the first day of Australia’s intra-squad match.
So dire were the returns that Marnus Labuschagne’s 41 was suddenly being painted as a selection-earning knock. That’s because 12 of the other Aussies who batted in the top seven for their side couldn’t even reach 20.
Even established stars Steve Smith (9) and David Warner (6) failed. That pair will carry Australia’s batting once more. This time, though, they will do so having not played a first-class match for 16 months.
The chances are low of both Smith and Warner immediately flourishing on lively decks, yet they may need to after the abomination that was the first day at Southampton.
England’s quicks must have been giddy upon seeing this scorecard. They know that on juiced-up pitches they can trample whatever batting line-up the tourists pick.
Can Davey claw back some respectability by taking on Rabada? (AAP Image/Dave Hunt)
The home batsmen would have had a different reaction altogether. They understand they face a stiff challenge against an Australian squad brimming with gifted and experienced quicks.
England laboured with the bat over their past three home series against Australia. In 2009, they had only one batsman who averaged 35 or more (from a minimum of three Tests played).
In 2013, they had just one batsman who averaged 40 or more, with the likes of Alastair Cook, Jonathan Trott, Jonny Bairstow and Matt Prior all averaging in the 20s.
Then in 2015, England again had only one batsman who averaged 40-plus, while Ian Bell, Ben Stokes, Jos Buttler, Jonny Bairstow and Adam Lyth all had shocking series with the willow.
In each of those three series, the English were saved by their skilful bowlers and the incompetence of the visiting batsmen.
With the team now boasting only one proven Test batsman, Joe Root, it is hard to see how they will consistently construct good totals. They might not have to though – it may end up being a case of just scoring a bit more than whatever the fragile Aussie unit cobbles together.
With both sides carrying weak batting line-ups – England’s top six is even worse than Australia’s – this shapes as a low-scoring series.
Chris Kettlewell
Roar Guru
Have to agree here. We need to be careful of saying "x has shown he's probably the best player for these conditions, but y still deserves first crack". We can't really afford to throw in players who may "deserve" the chance to show they can do it, but to this point haven't been great in these conditions, and only give the other guys a go if those players fail, because we can't afford to get off to a bad start. We need to play the team most likely to succeed in the conditions we are faced with, even if that means some "brutal" selection decisions.
Cari
Roar Rookie
Quote: England have openly admitted in the past that they ask their home curators to prepare pitches which favour them. Oh come on, you know very well that all National teams engage in the same practice, so why do you imply that England are the only nation guilty of preparing wickets hopefully friendly to their home team?
dan in devon
Guest
But when you look at their test records, I think Burns looks much better.
DAN IN DEVON
Guest
In 16 test matches Burns has scored 4 centuries; between them Bancroft, Labuschange and Harris have never scored one.
Insult_2_Injury
Roar Rookie
So were Thomson and Johnson. But Lillee and Harris benefited at the other end. Australia won a few games with those combos, reckon we might have a chance with Starc and any combination of Hazelwood, Cummins, Pattinson, too. We'll never really know though if we don't develop those partnerships. Funny isn't it, at the start of Starc's career he was in - out, 'because we can't play two left arm outright quicks'. So.....we could play one - Johnson? Now Starc's confidence is high, he's that player. All six in the top order never fire at the same time, I don't understand why all 4-5 bowlers are expected to as well, especially as you can drag him and bring him back later. That was ok for Lyon for 3 years!
Insult_2_Injury
Roar Rookie
Thanks for the clarification, Ronan. Being an ex opening bowler I know a gentle paced attack and a gentle attack to be the same thing. No outright pace in an attack was always considered a gentle attack when I was playing. Sorry to be pedantic. I get frustrated when pundits and commenters pigeonhole players. Commenters deciding because player A had a mare at Edgbaston in 2015, then he will be a liability, player B struggled in India in 2017 so should never tour there again. I wasn't the same bowler at five years, ten years and fifteen years in my career. I learned to play different conditions. I believe you play your form players, because the confidence of being in form outweighs a nervous 'sometimes' player and if fit your premier player - with the amount of coaching around an international team now - has the nous and ability to overcome hoodoo grounds, countries and conditions.
Pierro
Roar Rookie
to be more specific Brett he performed well at Lords and Oval on high scoring pitches but with the ball only , not the bat , save for a good knock to chase down the run the second innings at the oval 25 not out. At edbaston Marsh did nothing with bat or all of note , it would be dangerous to play him at pitches where batting is harder in general up north and laubaschagne has to be the preference up on north pitches. Lords can also have some matches such as this irish match on now where the pitch is lower scoring in one innings but marsh offers a change up of middle pace which has clearly been effective at lords
TheCunningLinguistic
Roar Rookie
That's your opinion, James, and you're welcome to it.
Pierro
Roar Rookie
I think if Wade, Bancroft and Neser are all in per media releases and Khawaja is fit and theres only one spinner in (and carey is out ) per media releases it means laubauschange is in and the squad is pretty much set . I think the question is who is neser in for? Im just hoping Pattinson and Bancroft have definitely made the cut and play . Im assuming Harris will make the cut primarily due to his form before the tour but lets see.
Pierro
Roar Rookie
Who else was tough like this in the past when we needed them in oppressive conditions. Border and Steve Waugh come to mind remember those men? Bancroft has a long way to go but he's got that sort of steel in him I think, so has carey and maybe laubachangne. Less flashy the better for me, tough crickets who don't fish at the ball as much and make bowlers earn their wicket .
Pierro
Roar Rookie
Id read that article it was a great posting here. bancroft was looking amazing in sth africa for me he seemed to genuinely replace handscomb in the test line up back then and had a huge ban placed on him which I arguably think was too long but we won’t get in to that . Im all for tough players in ashes . Carey is out and maybe rightly so but he’s got it too and I think labauchagne may be cut from the same cloth too as he some how survived out there to make 41 in the first innings. These characters hang round in the first innings type oppressive conditions and boy do we need them in England. Rogers was good at staying in there too with discipline.
MarkD
Guest
Absolute travesty that Burns misses out completely! But seriously , Mish Mash again? Neser inclusion with Mish Mash makes no sense to me, other to placate the Qlders for Burns omission.?
Pierro
Roar Rookie
Has to be head over patterson due to the english lions game I think and the aussie intra match may teach him to reign it in a bit when the wicket is a nightmare . I agree about their way of getting out being a downer but we have to have faith in Head and we know how good smith is as well but he's had a long break. They seem to be keen to look at Wade or the media is revving it up too and he had lions form. Starc at lords not edbaston
Pierro
Roar Rookie
Bancroft was an easy choice for me and has the county form this summer . Labauschagne the same I think I was just assessing the new contingent as who came over without county form in the Australia A squad and who the best fits are on form out of Wade, Head, Harris, Burns Patterson. I think Ronan nails the argument with British Lion match form but these men all have fine Australian batting test averages no doubt about that. they all had a chance to shine in the Aussie A match and Lions match too.
Pierro
Roar Rookie
I think my response I wrote didn't post, so here so a quick reiteration. Apologies if it duplicates I don't think I'm distinguishing between starc and hazelwood that much actually but the one wicket in the context of the match can matter and I think Starc was clearly the worst of the four front liners. Sure starc got root out but the other wicket was a tail lender. More to the point when england were running away with the match via broad and Ali putting on 89 runs to tear away with the game, it was Hazelwood who removed them both to give us any semblance of hope whilst Broad smacked Starc around quickly for 59 hitting 11 boundaries and the match got away from Australia in that period It may have lost us the first test as they targeted Starc . Hazelwood was the one to remove them both those batsman Finally Starc got carted in the second innings with the worst economy rate which you have not included (5.5) which was much worse than Hazelwoods and any of the front four bowlers if we look at mean economy rates his is worse of the front four period which there is no argument against. On top of that Anderson had an insane economy rate in the first innings of 1.76 . Starc and him are completely different bowlers but is another reason to omit starc and bowl Cummins, Patterson , Siddle who are the right style of bowlers for the first innings . Whats worse is Finn took a brace in the second innings who is closer to a bowling style of Starc , so their is an argument to say the wicket was flattening out and starcs economy got even worse. Its supported by Warner getting on top of them in the second innings due to the flatter surface but the game was all but lost . I think I've more than supported my comments now but its worth analysis
Jero
Roar Rookie
WTF. Mohammad Amir has retired from Test cricket.
Jeff
Roar Rookie
Strongest would be Head and Bancroft.
Pierro
Roar Rookie
The strongest of the new contingent would be wade and head given their Australia A warm up from against the Lions as Ronan has pointed out. Harris has failed for the most part in england this summer but we only have three or four test matches to go on.
Ronan O'Connell
Expert
Ashes squad's about to be announced in 20 minutes, any last minute predictions? There always seems to be 1 or 2 huge shocks when these things are announced.
Pierro
Roar Rookie
Jeff thats a generalization though of course experience matters everywhere but none more than England. In 2015 and 2013 ashes no Australian batsmen procured a decent average for the series unless he had played in an english test match or had big county experience . In 2013 Hughes, Warner and Khawaja all failed dismally with low averages under 28. they may have racked up test runs abroad before it but in england it didn’t matter they failed . The guys that have done well in last two ashes in australia had played a previous test match in england or had COUNTY form. Thats my point . Bancroft , Khawaja, Warner, Labauchange fit this profile going on them playing previous ashes or the current summer county form . We are lucky a few of them played county this summer in my opinion.