Much has been said about Jofra Archer being England’s saviour to blast out the Australians.
But I can’t see him being as successful as the British tabloids, infamous for the exaggeration, suggest.
I am aware that Archer has a good first-class record, with 131 wickets at 24, but Sussex have been in Division 2 of the County competition. Wickets are wickets, but it cannot be denied that he hasn’t been facing the strongest competition in England, let alone the world. It’s very clear there is a stark difference between being able to decimate a second XI team stocked with under-20s and competing at the highest level.
Dean Jones highlighted that is was highly unsafe for Archer to play in that game due to the age of the opposition, and I agree. Archer was clearly at a much higher level than these young players, many of whom are being given a chance to develop into county players, not bowlers attempting to prove fitness for a Test berth.
(Mike Hewitt/Getty Images)
In an almost ironic turn, Archer was then hammered in the second innings, going for a whopping 5.4 runs in his first eight overs and finishing with 1-78 from 19 overs, a highly uneconomical at 4.1 runs an over.
While he decimated the opposition in his first innings, taking 6-27, they clearly adapted to his rapid pace and quickly figured out how to blunt it. This will give hope to the Australian batting line-up – they need to be patient to make sure they survive the good balls and punish the bad balls, of which there will be many.
Why will there be many bad balls? Simple: Archer is a genius in ODI cricket. In the 50-over game he’s able to blast out opposition batsmen through sheer pace while alternating between yorkers and bouncers without any consistency. While he has a respectful economy of 3.10 in first-class cricket, it’s against some of the lesser batsmen in England against whom pace is enough to bowl them out.
Test Cricket is a different game. Archer will be coming up against the best batsman in the world and one of the best in history, Steve Smith, as well as other classy batsmen used to facing balls in excess of 145 kilometres per hour in the nets and in the Shield competition.
I don’t think Archer will be patient enough to stick to the plan required to get out the Australians cheaply. He is a classy one-day bowler, but I believe he will lack the consistency of someone like Mitchell Starc, which is what makes his Australian counterpart so lethal as a Test bowler.
The question for the English coaching set-up is whether they are able to make sure Archer doesn’t rely solely on pace, which he currently does. I cannot see how he will be able to maintain a plan by bowling in the same place over after over to dislodge a batsman, as unlike in one-day cricket, batsmen are able to be much more defensive in Test cricket and bat out Archer’s spells of pace.
The English cricketing fraternity will be bitterly disappointed by Archer’s returns this series, though they may be jubilant if he takes 3-100, claiming him to be the saviour of English cricket. This would be the headline if he cleans up the tail but nothing more.
If I were Joe Root, I would be extremely worried about how many runs Archer would leak, especially on the small English grounds on the fourth and fifth days. It’s something of a foreign concept to Archer, who is used to the ludicrous three days of County cricket, but that is another issue.
Another encouraging sign for both England and Australia was Archer’s rapid ton against Gloucestershire. As an Australian, I am encouraged by his carefree approach towards bowling off spinners and seamers. This bodes well for the best spinner in the world, Nathan Lyon, as he is often very successful against batsmen who try to take him down. Archer’s aggressive approach will not pay off in Test cricket.
It also bodes well for Australia’s six seamers, all of whom are world-class and extremely reliable. They will be able to choke Archer out of the batting crease with their fantastic line, length and patience.
Whilst Archer is a world-class one-day and T20 bowler, Test cricket is the real proving ground. Many have succeeded in the shorter formats but failed at the supreme form of cricket. Archer risks becoming the Paul Pogba of English cricket – a man with huge potential but lacking the consistency to achieve their full potential and caught up in a swirl of media worship.
That’s why Archer will flop in the Ashes when he comes up against players who know how to play extreme pace into the fourth and fifth day of a match. It will be interesting to see how he adapts from aggressive ODIs to the patient and defensive style of Test cricket.
Mika
Roar Rookie
"That’s why Archer will flop in the Ashes when he comes up against players who know how to play extreme pace into the fourth and fifth day of a match." You were saying Noah? Unless he breaks down from fatigue of his heavy load at Lords (a real risk given his youth.), you'd have to say that was about the most impressive debut by a young quick we've ever seen. He's single-handedly changed the series. He is significantly quicker than the Aussie quartet. He looks like the fastest bowler in the world right now. It looks like he's removed Smith for the 3rd test. He's clearly rattled a few Aussies and should be able to roll our tail Starc style. In other words, he's completely rebalanced the series in Englands favour.
ChrisH
Roar Rookie
If the Poms think his pace will trouble the Aussies, I think they're deluded. The Aussie batsmen train against Starc, Cummins, Hazlewood and Pattinson. Archer is going to seem like having a net to them.
Hamish Laws
Guest
County cricket is all 4 day now. I don't see Archer as a likely saviour for England but I don't see him being terrible either.
Noah Barling
Roar Pro
Great Comment!
DaveJ
Roar Rookie
A couple of curious claims, notably that Starc has been consistent and lethal in Tests, and is economical. His series averages in his last three major series were 35 vs South Africa, 44 vs Pakistan and 34 vs India. His career first class economy rate is 3.3. And Lyon as best spinner in the world? Stats would surely back Ashwin for that title. Average of 25 vs 32 for Lyon, with nearly the same wickets off 20 fewer Tests. Ashwin’s average maybe skewed by his record at home, but his average away from home (31) is still better than Lyon’s overall average. And Australia has six world class seamers? Siddle is good but world class means you’re good enough for consideration for the best XI in the world and Siddle’s record doesn’t justify that. Pattinson could be but there’s nothing to back it up yet. Starc and Hazlewood have gone downhill. Neser is hardly even Test class. Dont know if Archer will do well. While County Div 2 isn’t at the level of the Sheffield Shield, not many bowlers average much better than 23 there over extended periods. E.g. Mohammad Abbas, who made fools of Australia in the Pakistan series last year is averaging 23 this season. The fact Archer hasn’t played first class since last year is a question mark, but he looked sharp and accurate enough in the World Cup. And Aaron Finch can tell you that he moves the ball after the first ball of the WC semi.
Gurlivleen Grewal
Roar Pro
The thrusting of Jofra fits the theme for England in tests. Started with their push for all-rounders who average the mid 30s with the bat, looking for quick fixes in the name of attacking cricket for the opening slot - Hales, Vince and now Roy, picking a no 4 like Denly - who again has a mediocre record with the bat and ball at the shoddy first-class level where guys who bowl mediocre medium-pace have brilliant bowling stats on ill-tailored pitches. While guys who are the real deal for tests are given the boot like Foakes in favor of Butler, Bairstow. Aus can dare England to prepare any pitch - they are looking for a very small subset - seam, swing but also slow! While in the first test - the pitch didn't seam as they would have liked it was slow. Apparently, they ordered a huge batch of walls which worked wonders vs India but now are too soft to aid similar movement. Seriously, Eng needs the pitch, the ball, the tosses to go their way to win? Howsoever unlikely, it worked like a charm vs India but now with injuries - how are they going to win? It is easy to criticize the curator than to look inwards in ones own game. It is hard to make a prediction but I tend to agree with Noah - I would be surprised if Archer makes a big impression. It requires an abundance of patience, nuance, and fitness to make a huge succeed at tests, all in addition to skill. With Root now claiming that he wanted to bat at 3 is rubbish, given he tried everything to avoid that for 2 years. His flashy game is an obvious weakness at 3 and it will be exploited by the bowlers. Instead Stokes should bat at 3, then Root, then Bairstow and Foakes. The English media was claiming that Stokes asked the umpires to not reward the 4 runs in the World cup, so one can safely avoid most outlets - there will be booing and the fake bravado - what translates to the pitch is to be seen!
VivGilchrist
Roar Rookie
No. Credit where credit is due. There’s enough haters out there supporting the English.
Pope Paul VII
Roar Rookie
Jof might have been a bit tired after his 100.
Noah Barling
Roar Pro
No doubt if he comes down under for the Ashes we might be in some trouble on bouncing decks
Noah Barling
Roar Pro
Touché my friend, Monty Python!
George
Guest
Eh? The site has mostly disintegrated into cheerleading pieces, and people like you lap that up as insight.
dungerBob
Roar Rookie
I haven't seen enough of him to make a prediction but I feel that he may have more up his sleeve than just a decent turn of pace. Even in white ball cricket he got the odd one to swing or seam as well as mix up his speeds nicely. If you can do that with a white kookaburra I wouldn't rule out being able to get the red dukes to do a bit too.
Rob JM
Roar Rookie
Archer is going to be a gun if his body holds together. He’s no out of control slinger like Tait. Unlike other English bowlers he should also enjoy success overseas. However he is green, and not used to bowling 30 overs in an innings, and with luck the Aussies will be the ones to teach him a few lessons about test cricket. Next time we won’t be so lucky.
Derek Murray
Roar Rookie
I agree he’ll need more than 145-150 pace to take wickets in tests. Plenty have bowled quicker and not made it
HR
Roar Rookie
Or he’s the best option available because he’s the quickest option available, even if he doesn’t have a great economy rate. Shaun Tait was picked for Australia, after all, for much the same reason – good ODI form. With Anderson, Wood and Stone all injured, the other obvious choice would be Plunkett, who doesn’t bring much variety to the attack. Archer seems to be the right choice, but that doesn’t mean he’ll instantly be a colossus.
Mika
Roar Rookie
Agree about 60%. Archer is green. But I think the writer is assuming less credit than maybe he's due. He looks like he can bowl a line. My issue for England is that Archer is not Anderson: he's just a slippery quick. Not a man who swings and cuts it late both ways. Aussies generally know how to play fast bowlers. It's the swingers and seamers that stitch them up.
Derek Murray
Roar Rookie
He bowls fast but no faster than 2-3 guys in the Australian side. He’s a talent and he won’t be rubbish. I wouldn’t be at all surprised if he does something for the highlight reel - like an 18yo Cummins roughing up and then nicking off the great Jacques Kallis in Joburg (I was there). It’s exciting to see a new quick come into test cricket with high expectations.
Derek Murray
Roar Rookie
Oh he’s always hyped too much. I suspect he could be a terrific player for a long time but I’ve nothing to base that on bar a few 50 over games and a lot of T20 stuff. Finding your pace, line and length at 5pm with 25 overs already bowled and the opposition 1-300 is a different proposition altogether. I tip he’ll get wickets but mostly struggle. He’s not the messiah but nor is he a naughty boy
VivGilchrist
Roar Rookie
What is about Australia that you hate so much?
Noah Barling
Roar Pro
I agree 100% Kopa. No doubt he has skill and talent, but sometimes he is hyped too much