It may seem inconsequential in a game that lasts 80 minutes for the score at the halfway mark of a match to have any real value, much the same for the first recorded score of a game. However, the facts prove both are important in achieving a win.
The NRL Premiership ladder after 20 rounds is not too dissimilar to the ladder for sides who have converted the most halftime leads into victories.
The Roosters and Raiders are at the top with 13 wins from half time leads, then Melbourne comes in third with ten. Souths and Manly have nine, Parramatta eight, Newcastle seven, Penrith and the Wests Tigers have six, Brisbane and the Cowboys are on five, Cronulla, the only anomaly, has three along with the Dragons and the Warriors, the Bulldogs two while the Titans are last, having converted just one half time lead into a win this year.
In 56.58 per cent of all games played in the NRL in 2019, the winner has been undefeated in both halves, either outscoring the opponent in both halves or outscoring them in one half and drawing with them in the other.
This shows that teams have a stronger chance of success if they are not trailing at halftime. The below chart shows each side’s win percentage in each half for the 2019 season, up till the end of Round 20.
Now while there is a correlation between having a first half lead and winning games, there is a more prominent statistic to do with scoring and winning.
Of the 152 games played so far in the 2019 NRL season, the winning team has been the first scorer on 103 occasions. That equates to the first scoring side in a match going on to win the game on 67.8 per cent – a little over two-thirds – of the time.
Only four of the 16 NRL teams have a win percentage under 50 per cent in 2019 after being the first scorer in a game – North Queensland at 44.4 per cent, the Warriors at 41.7 per cent, St.George-Illawarra at 36.4 percent and the Gold Coast Titans at 28.6 per cent.
By comparison, only two of the 16 sides have conceded the first points in a match yet still managed to win at least half of their games – Melbourne with a remarkable 72.7 per cent and Manly at 55.6 per cent.
These two points show the overwhelming value and significant importance of being the first scorer in a game.
There have been 45 occasions where a penalty goal was the first scoring play of a match, and on 64.4 per cent of those occasions, the side has gone on to win. A try as the first scoring play has led to the scoring side winning on 69.2 per cent of the time.
Given there are often howls of protest by some commentators whenever a team decides to take a shot at penalty goal at the start of a game, despite being in great attacking position, these stats show that scoring first by any means possible can lead to victory more often than not.
That’s a stat this is too big to ignore.
While it may not be exciting to watch a player kick a goal, compared to scoring a try, winning is king and when scoring first leads to a win in such a high percentage of games, any side would be mad to turn down the opportunity.
Kcbear
Roar Rookie
& that's why DCE made 3 very very costly bad decision's against the warriors the other night that probably & in my opinion lost them the game as this article's proven stats show by not taking early points regardless how you get them it's the importance of having them early enough in the game most importantly for your team. Those 3 early penalties goals that were clearly in kicking range for Ruben Carrick & im sure the 1st 2 of those 3 penalties the score was 0 - 0. Manly had the momentum & yes they had the warriors under the pump & all the more reason to take the kicks, your on the bloody scoreboard then, it would've changed the whole complex of their game for the warriors there n then. That's why they did what they did from those 2 moments on, manly jus totally gave up their advantage to be 4-0 possibly 6-0 in the game & gave that advantage to the warriors to get on the scoreboard 1st. That momentum would've stopped & been slowed down if the kicks were attempted. The game would've commenced in a different part of the field everything would've been different BUT some strange unknown unreal ludicrous reason DCE or whoever was making the decision's not to go for the 2 points should have a good hard look at themselves period & really consider that the ultimate decision they had made IMO cost manly the game & the possibility of cracking the top 4 & hopefully not losing the team's aura that they seem to have about them this season so far, I really hope this doesn't psychological wreck their season's run into the finals, being smart clever doing & getting the simple 1% things right keeps you righteous focused balanced, but being greedy once twice three times in a row in a team environment game & where its one actual individual in your team that's made these 3 back to back to back greedy decisions & failed on all three attempts & that individual is ur captain thts made the decisions has put the whole team under pressure & their whole game plan out of whack lost ground start chasing the game.. Momentum is a big powerful psychological advantage tool to have over your opponent particularly that early in a game, it was the perfect amount of doses at the time for 2 pts then another 2 pts = 4 - 0 realistically could've just been first 2pts would've been enough to slow down the warriors monstrous start to quickly get their momentum goin. Anyway I see it as DCE being captain he should know better, respect all team's & each game in a professional competitive manner regardless of the opposition your playing, they are there to do the same thing as what your there for & like the article clearly states but more so proves these moments & opportunities like these very early in the game your being offered points to get on the scoreboard while it's 0 - 0 your only singling out a complete selfish attitude towards yourself & a complete discard to the environment that your team now has to play in when you weren't successful in the decision & the option you took, was priceless..
matth
Roar Guru
To me it’s a bit of a chicken and egg argument. The better team wins (generally). The better team is better through most of the game (mostly), so it stands to reason that the better team scores first and also wins. So did they win because they scored first or did they score first because they are the better side and likely to win. To see any correlation you would possibly need to look at results for teams that were close on the ladder (although that can be influence by the draw to that point in the season, injuries, etc), or even look at upsets. I suspect upsets generally occur when the lesser tram gets an early jump on the favorite. So I doubt you can use this as a predictor
Forty Twenty
Roar Rookie
I've always rated the howls of protest by the commentators when a team takes 2 to be ill advised. Manly took 2 against the Storm the other week and then took another 2 to lead by 4 which usually sends the commentators in to a meltdown. I reckon a whole lot more teams should take the 2 when chasing 8 or 14 for example with time running out.
Forty Twenty
Roar Rookie
No one is saying the first decision determines the outcome. When the first points are scored nobody knows for sure who is going to win and therefore the captain and everyone else is expected to compete for the win until the match is over. 33% is a lot different to 0%.
Flexis
Roar Rookie
Don’t you mean 19 points to win ;) https://www.theroar.com.au/2019/08/03/the-search-for-rugby-leagues-magic-number/
Andrew Ferguson
Expert
These stats are for the 152 games played so far in 2019 (Round 1 til the end of Round 20)
ScottWoodward.me
Roar Guru
Hi Andrew, good stuff mate. Dutski is correct that we require a bigger sample for it to be really meaningful. On-field decision making can be crucial and this is one of them. Ideally, if a lower-rated team is playing a top-rated team, I would strongly suggest going for the 6 points as I would have predicted that we need to score >22 points to win. Logically, 2 points make little difference. If it is raining and you have a poor goal kicker and the kick is right in front, then that is different. I would suggest the 2 points would be taken in every Origin game.
Womblat
Guest
So all the referee has to do in order to reduce a team's likelihood of winning to 33% is award first penalty against them. Hmm. You'd never get those odds anywhere else in a two horse race. If it's that easy, then why would any decision other than the first one be to blame for any outcome? Puts on field captain blow-ups and hot pressers in a new light.
Dutski
Roar Guru
Thanks Andrew. I’d be interested to know if this is just for this season or if it’s a longer term trend.
Duncan Smith
Roar Guru
Following your report, can we expect a scramble for field goals in the first five minutes of a game instead of the last five?