The Wallabies have a chance to win the Rugby Championship, but to do so, they’ll need to beat New Zealand in Perth.
To win the Rugby World Cup, teams will almost certainly have to beat the All Blacks at some point. This is Australia’s chance to cement themselves as contenders for the Webb Ellis trophy, and put a hand on the Bledisloe Cup, which they haven’t held since 2002.
On paper, the Wallabies don’t have much of a chance. Their opponents have won nine of the last 10 meetings, and took the Bledisloe in a clean sweep last year, winning each game by an average of 23 points.
Funnily enough, in odd-numbered years, the Wallabies tend to do better. They upset New Zealand in 2011, 2015 and 2017, while results in even-numbered years are less frequent.
The Aussies have claimed the Rugby Championship in the last two World Cup years, at a time when the SANZAAR tournament is almost an afterthought.
But Steve Hansen seems keen to win this comp. He’s named a full-strength XV for this game, while Michael Cheika hasn’t exactly put out an academy team either.
The notable selection for New Zealand is Beauden Barrett at fullback, instead of his usual 10. In game two last year, Barrett torched the Aussies, scoring four tries and running for more than 100 metres. Playing from the back this time round, the Blues recruit won’t be anywhere near as involved.
The same setup was used a fortnight ago against South Africa, in the 16-16 draw.
The big surprise for Australia is James O’Connor, who will start at 13 in a baptism of fire move. Since heading to Europe, O’Connor has convinced us that his best position is in the centres, but a starting opportunity against New Zealand is his real chance to prove himself.
James O’Connor has returned to the Wallabies fold in 2019. (Photo by Ian Hitchcock/Getty Images)
In team news for Australia, Dave Pocock won’t make his return despite rumours he would. He’s expected to play a part in Auckland, however. The back row is made up of Lukhan Salakaia-Loto, Michael Hooper and the in-form Isi Naisarani.
Nic White will deservedly start at halfback, after a shining performance in South Africa. Tolu Latu runs out at hooker, and he links up with Allan Alaalatoa in the front row.
Somewhat harshly, Tevita Kuridrani has been dropped, to make way for O’Connor.
For the visitors, Brodie Retallick’s shoulder injury rules him out, and Scott Barrett takes his place. The back row features regular open-side Ardie Savea moving to blindside, with Sam Cane in his normal position. Kieran Read remains at 8.
TJ Perenara is knocked back to the bench, by Aaron Smith, and Dane Coles overtakes Codie Taylor for the hooker position.
Anton Lienart-Brown will start at 12.
Prediction
Australia put together a solid first stanza against Argentina – probably their only convincing half in this tournament. What they’ve struggled with is supporting the ball carrier, which could leave them vulnerable against New Zealand.
The All Blacks haven’t been invincible so far this year, and the Wallabies do have a chance.
New Zealand by 16.
RobC
Roar Guru
Pretty good chance in the end, MrChook!
Dean
Roar Rookie
Oh my, I’m sooo happy to be wrong. Here’s hoping that I’m wrong about next week.
Joe
Roar Rookie
Hoping this year is the year my optimism isn't misplaced....Wallabies by 6.
Kashmir Pete
Roar Guru
Great comment Mach, one of best and original have read for a while! Cheers KP PS - you omitted 'up the jumper' - just make sure the ref does not know where ball went either ;-)
Ex force fan
Guest
Nonsense U1 and you know it.
cheers Tman, that would be the icing on the cake.
Sage
Roar Rookie
You’ve misunderstand what I’m saying. “You” as in the author predicts a 16 point win to NZ yet he is accused of clutching at straws in the very first post. The rest may then read differently
pm
Roar Rookie
If you think about it it's probably significant. They're more competitive every second year - and we're in that second year. In 2017 the Wallabies nearly won 2 of 3 tests. In 2018 they were nearly competitive
pm
Roar Rookie
The quality of play in the backs for NZ - Barrett and Smith - could be just as decisive. As for the Wallabies backrow, if they were serious about it i think they'd have picked Higginbotham there instead of LSL. Even a step slower than a few years ago he's just a good player and would complement Nasirani run and Hooper's hustle beautifully
Johan
Guest
One thing I think I we can all agree on is that it is an outrage that this game is being played in Perth rather than Sydney or even Brisbane if you must. Perth is not a rugby union city and doesn’t even have a Super Rugby franchise. Poor decision rugby Australia and raylene castle.
Bourkos
Roar Rookie
I would love a win but got to be realistic
Blinky Bill
Roar Rookie
Thanks mate. Maybe I will be able to see it on Fox replay.
Oblonsky‘s Other Pun
Roar Guru
Who knows, Jacko, but I’d say that the All Blacks will look to attack down the 13 channel now that we don’t have TK there (who along with Davies and Goodhue is one of the best backline defenders in the world).
Mel R
Roar Rookie
Amen to that. The time for complaining about JOC is over. Comeon Wallabies!!!!!!!!!!!!! Lets take this one!!!!!
Jack
Guest
I can't understand why players are picked out of position. Rugby is such a game of specialists. Why not pick the best performed players in their positions in first class Rugby competitions and stick with them for four of five tests. With so many teams ranked above the Wallabies that Test Rugby is no place to learn a new position. It feels like an rep team approach where young players are still learning. Against the All Blacks there is no place to hide deficient skills for a position. Not ability or talent, just learned skills. These skills come from consistently playing The Blacks will find the weakness and they will more than likely exploit it.
taylorman
Roar Guru
Oh I know...but it makes for a good story... :-) Good luck with the Pumas tonight Biltong, and I'm hoping we get to see the Boks again more than in pool play this year...a little rematch of 1995 wouldnt go astray for one thing... ;-)
Tony
Guest
I guess you did ! I didnt see it either
Northkiwi
Roar Rookie
It might depend on whether both sides show their full hands in terms of tactics. Since 2011 the AB's have bee pretty cagey pre RWC, asking the team to not kick, or to kick in opposition half, different pod structures etc. The idea I guess is to try to simulate pressure by eliminating some options from the playbook. My feeling is that as this is Bledisloe, the AB's will bring a few cards out. As far as the WB's, they are developing a pretty handy pack, scrums will be interesting.... AB's by 9
It is 2019 Tman, past results are largely irrelevant, different teams, different players, different circumstances. Besides, the margin between performing and not performing is a mere few percentage points. Wallabies and for that matter All Blacks could just click and either could put in a great performance. Or it might just not. ;)
it is a rare occurrence for any team to have their best 23 in a match day. You’re lucky if you get close to it.