Well then… the completion of the Rugby Championship for the year and the obligatory non-Rugby Championship games last week brings with it one very harsh reality for the southern hemisphere nations.
The Rugby World Cup is one game away.
Are we ready? Have all the appropriate boxes been ticked? Which countries have the most unticked boxes?
And not that we were counting, but how many ways was the TRC tipping panel title split?
Well, let’s knock that out of the way up front: three ways.
WEEK 4: Digger, Nobes, Harry, Geoff 2; Brett 1.
OVERALL: Digger, Harry, Geoff 5; Brett 4; Nobes 3.
To wrap up The Rugby Championship portion of 2019, and with a very obvious view to the RWC next month, I put this question to the guys:
QUESTION: At the completion of the southern hemisphere Tests, what is the biggest fear you hold for your respective countries with the Rugby World Cup just a month away?
Digger
With the make-up of the teams selected so far this season my biggest fear is we lack size in the loose and that our lineout can quickly become a weakness.
While I understand the theories around the Japanese climate and the fast tracks (remember the bold predictions of 400+ scores for the recent Cricket World Cup?), once the World Cup knockout rounds lend themselves to being tight and torrid affairs, I can certainly see some likely opponents able to exploit my perceived weaknesses. And this makes me rather nervous.
(Photo by Phil Walter/Getty Images)
I remember Sam Whitelock getting up in front of Victor Matfield to steal his ball in what I believe was both a defining moment in that semi-final in 2015 and what I firmly believe was the winning of the World Cup for NZ, and I fear we may just see a reversal in this edition with the All Blacks on the receiving end.
Otherwise I am feeling rather peachy about the whole thing, though it would be nice to think Brodie Retallick will in fact be fit enough to take part. Fingers crossed, that will be the case.
Harry
Good to see Sam Cane return to his bully boy best.
Every time the best back in the world, Beauden Bok-Beating Bastard Best Brother Barrett, approaches the tee, even if he dribbles it a few meters forward, and especially if the kick is on the right side, I imagine rugby Kiwis feeling nauseous.
It’s the same when one of South Africa’s two best-in-the-world forwards, Malcolm Marx, trudges toward a 5-meter lineout, especially on the left side, and wipes the ball with a towel. His understudy Bongi Mbonambi provokes similar fear in me. No hooker duo in world rugby scrums or tackles or carries harder than Marx-Bongi, and Marx is Pocock-esque over tackled ball.
But they cannot find Etzebeth, Mostert, Snyman, and Lood even if they are a foot above competitors. Marx flutters. Bongi throws the fast ball. We give away 2-3 a game. It’s absurd. And reminiscent of the 2015 semi-final loss to the All Blacks.
Other than that, Faf de Klerk’s wayward boot bothers me, and Willie le Roux’s lack of form.
Geoff
Two bites at the cherry for me, and two entirely different answers for Australia and New Zealand!
My biggest fear for the Wallabies is that they will lose to Fiji in their pool match and, for the first time, fail to make it out of the group stage.
Samu Kerevi of the Wallabies (Photo by Cameron Spencer/Getty Images)
Some may see that as an opportunity to shake up Australian rugby, but the truth is that it would be a massive setback for the psyche of a sport which has struggled for success and a positive public profile over the last decade or so.
For the All Blacks, my fear is that they might get tempted to get ahead of themselves and insist on playing a high risk, high pace game behind the advantage line, against sides who are now fast and fit enough to rush up and knock them over for all 80 minutes.
Last week’s match in Auckland showed how good the All Blacks are when they keep the game plan simple, get the basics right and force the opposition to play loosely – not the other way around.
Brett
After last weekend, the fear is very obvious: a chronically passive breakdown.
The Wallabies proved to themselves in Perth what a strong breakdown performance can produce on top of a strong set piece platform, with quick ball all night fuelling an attack that had the best team in the world on the back foot even before they went a man down.
A week later, and with only one forced change to the XV, it was like a bout of amnesia was dished out to the Wallabies as they had their passports scanned in Auckland.
That part of the Wallabies game has long been the most consistently inconsistent, and while some players buckle under pressure more than others, the net result is the same: a passive breakdown means their best and worst can be a long way apart.
Australia’s David Pocock (centre) (AAP Image/David Moir)
There’s no doubt Pool D teams will sense this as an opportunity, and why wouldn’t they? Samoa on September 7 can’t come quick enough, though the truth is we won’t know if they have or can overcome this issue until they string a couple of strong breakdown performances together.
Nobes
The biggest concern for Los Pumas is finding a scrum. At this level you cannot play without scrum.
Mario Ledesma is at least trying alternatives, switching Marcos Kremer to the lock position with Guido Petty, just the same that England does with Maro Itoje. Nothing really fancy but at least is something.
Both starting props are very young and the two substitutes seem to have more experience, but in the loose game it seems that young people have advantages. If this is resolved, my second doubt begins: what to do with the ball.
The Pumas. (AP Photo/SNPA, Ross Setford)
On one hand Los Pumas have two flyhalves with a lot of experience, but one does not seem to be at his best level and the other will have to do a quick course to join a system where its whole game revolves around that position.
If these two things can be solved, I think the team will win in confidence and maybe can advance in a very difficult Pool C.
BONUS QUESTION: Who is one player either inside or outside your respective country’s current squad who you think could make a difference at the RWC?
Digger: Quite a few spring to mind, Retallick an obvious choice along with a host of others, but the chap I would like to single out is Sevu Reece, he seems to have a golden touch and as a relative unknown, similar to Nehe Milner Skudder in 2015, has the ability to surprise and be a real star in this tournament and has an attacking skill set few can match and a couple of moments of brilliance may well prove crucial to NZ chances.
Harry: I think Pieter-Steph du Toit is the best 6 in the world over the last two seasons. His RWC form (together with Faf-Pollard-Willie) is probably our bellwether. But the unsmiling Bismarck du Plessis would add more than gregarious octogenarian Schalk Brits.
Geoff: Is there a player outside of the current Wallabies squad who could make a difference to their fortunes? Yes there is, Leinster favourite Scott Fardy would provide the hard body and hard head that is needed for the Wallabies pack to be consistently combative – not just intermittently. But unless there’s a huge surprise to be unveiled in the Qantas hangar tomorrow, it ain’t happening.
Could Fardy and his beard be coming back? (Pic: Tim Anger).
And with the All Blacks squad not due to be announced until next week, it’s a bit of a guess as to a missing player who could make a difference, so I’m putting it all back on the big ‘Guzzler’, Brodie Retallick, to fully recover from his shoulder injury and add an extra presence and dimension to the All Blacks’ performance once the quarter finals start. You don’t win World Cups without genuine world class players stepping up and getting the job done, and I don’t think New Zealand can win without him.
Brett: I am intrigued by what Jordan Petaia might become as a player, but I’m nervous about throwing him into a RWC to find out. So in a squad short of finishers, and with reservations about trying to shoehorn Tom Banks onto a wing, I can’t shake the nagging feeling of the obvious benefits Henry Speight would bring, both with the ball and over the ball.
terrykidd
Roar Pro
Lol Ken I do support the Tahs but not blindly. In regard to Hanigan I cannot for the life of me see a better prospect at 6 from all available players than Ned. FFS he offers more than Dempsey where I can see little value at all ..... goes hard for 20 minutes then goes missing.
Carlos the Argie
Roar Guru
I don't doubt you. Don't confuse my opinion with doubts on you. I just disagree with the decision. It is a different matter. And playing with instinct does not mean been an improviser. Again, different concepts. I am sure that Isa knows how to follow rules and roles BUT also knows when to use instinct. As the NZ rugbiers always say, play what is in front of you, which means follow your roles until you see something "interesting". This is why I brought up Ardie and BBBBB. Regarding Legui, he does NOT have the stamina or physical presence to play 80 minutes against England or France. I do NOT deny his personality skills. But this is about playing. They should have named him motivator in chief. Like you, I have doubts about certain player choices, but this one to me is unforgivable. [PS: I am not sure you can count 200 actions per game....]
Nobrain
Roar Guru
What do you want me to say. I provided you with my info first hand, then I translate what Pablo Matera said in scrum ( you can go to page of ESPN and listen yourself) and you still have doubts . I do not know, do you want a written statement from UAR with the explanation? May be you are following rugby coaching closed enough and you stick to the old way of coaching. Nowadays each player has roll that must follow no matter what. The roll that supposed to have Isa it is called “ airforce” and requires around 200 actions per game, the next player has 80 actions, that is how demanding the position is . Kremer is the one doing it now with the two locks that follow. There is no place for improvisers in the team. Whatever you like it or not this is the way coaching is this days and what the teams do on the field. If you happened to watch England last weekend you will notice the same. Follow Itoje, number 7 and 6. They repeat themselves in every play. Isa to adjust must have played at least 7 games and that is no posible. And ye, Legui is the soul you like it or not. He is everybody idol in the team and every team has one, and yes Ledesma , the staff, and Matera think that he is very important to have him in the squad. So, I trust they are doing the right thing even this is not my favourite list or 100% what I like. Thsynknow better than me.
Carlos the Argie
Roar Guru
Again, if he is the soul, give him wings. If he is the cheerleader, give him pompoms. If he is too old to play, name him the spiritual director and bring someone that CAN play for 20 minutes at this level. I understand the explanation you provide, fair enough for the coaches or Matera to say that. I find it extremely difficult that in the time available you cannot "coach" a player like this. Unless they think that Isa is stupid too. The system? What are we playing? Clockwork orange? Isa is intuitive. That is actually fantastic. I know some pretty good intuitive players: Ardie Savea and BBBBB. With 20 minutes to go, you have to bring explosive difference. Not a clockwork orange player. The coaches made their bed. I am here to say that I disagree with the decision, especially given the official reason you provided. But that is their job. They will have to live with it. Argentina plays France and England and has to win one of them to make it too QF. What better than having a player that plays every weekend in one of the countries and many games against the other. Logic sucks. Data sucks. it is better to have opinions.
Nobrain
Roar Guru
Pablo Matera: Legui is the soul of this team.
Nobrain
Roar Guru
Pablo Matera: Facundo could not adapt on time to our system. He is used to play with very different roll and the one he supposed to play in LP is very physical demanding , so demanding that when Lezana enters in the place of Kremer he has to take that roll and he usually end up exhausting. They call that roll in the system the third lock and demands that player to be exactly in a position on the field all the time depending on what it is going on. Facundo is more used to play by instincts and that is exactly what Mario and Gonzalo are trying to avoid. Even Nico who played with us last year had hard time understanding what we are doing. Facu tried his best and did a lot of study but his roll is the most difficult in the system and I think Mario thought he was no going to make it on time. The good thing for us is that we know our system by memory and the bad thing is that it is hard for someone joining the team now to adapt. I expect Nico to do it faster because he has played under the same system but for Figallo and Urdapilleta it will be much harder but their experience will help them.
Ken Catchpole's Other Leg
Roar Guru
OJ, you are cruising for a mediation. It costs nothing to be nice. Be nice.
Ken Catchpole's Other Leg
Roar Guru
Terry I have no big beef with Hannigan. He is now more test worthy than ever, but sadly due to the premature development phase he benefitted from , many are agin’ him. But I have to say terry, I note a very sky blue hue in many of your objective choices. It looks a bit myopic, even from me in the Tah zone.
Ken Catchpole's Other Leg
Roar Guru
Well Harry, England and Scotland surprised us. I see the cup as a 3-way between NZ England and SA. The rest of us are arguing over 4th spot. I expect Australia to get 6-8th finish. Which is about where we are ranked.
Carlos the Argie
Roar Guru
Why do you think I would be jealous? This is not my issue. Don't assume things for me, I have enough with myself going over issues over and over. I don't want to be in your spot. It is not interesting to me. That is the final point. They made a decision that Isa didn't "convince" them. Fine. That should have been the statement all along. YOU said that Isa was disruptive, I didn't. Bottom line, is that once again I see the Pumas being handled in strange ways. I recall Albacete, now Isa. Remember, I am Argentinean, I am used to seeing back door deals. Or you forget 1999, for example? Even starting in 1987, every RWC there was something cooking. I am losing confidence in this staff. Unfortunately, I am not seeing the improvement required. My brain says it is over, my heart still is hopeful.
Nobrain
Roar Guru
I already told you the story. Isa did not convince the staff. Period. What else do you want to here? They are committed to Los Pumas to do the best in Japan and felt that Isa was not the man. You think he was , well , you are not in charge to make the list. I feel that Tuculet is not at 100 % and they take him anyway, What can I do? I am not in charge, but I trust the people that decide to include him. We cannot assume that we know more than the staff. And it was not just name dropping , I am sure you would have liked to be in my spot. Do not be jealous, and trust me in this one. There are no ghosts. You know that if I have to be critic I am and will , but not just for the sake of it.
Carlos the Argie
Roar Guru
All that is very impressive but it doesn’t explain the decision. It’s only name dropping without a story. I never brought up Quesada. I never said that politics was with Queso. This is just about what appears as an irrational decision. It is not about Isa. It is about a decision without an explanation. It also stands comparing it to Bruni. And if you believe that by being physically close to them they will tell you their thoughts, you are much more naive than what I expected. Mentioning Germany or California is irrelevant. It’s about facts. And those you have not argued.
Nobrain
Roar Guru
Carlos, I know that is pretty hard to have a touch of what it is going on with the Pumas from sunny California. My self I spent 4 hours yesterday at Belgrano Athletic where I am sure you know the Pumas picture is taken every four years and lunch served. Only a month ago I flew to NZ with Mario Ledesma who was in seat 4 b while I was in seat 4k in between us was Roncero . Also your dear friend A. Pichot was one seat ahead of mine in 3 K. The president of UAR and his secretary were just behind us. This is a long 14 hrs fly and they touched many issues and from what they were saying my understanding is that politics that may jeopardise what the Pumas can do in RWC is out of the questions Then I spent time Jaguares and Gonzalo Quesada were he directly in my face said that he could not believe that people were saying that he and Mario Ledesma had a problem and that was the reason he was not taken to Japan. Even his father and mother told me that Gonzalo was happy to finally was going to have time for his girlfriend . All this while you were in Germany . So I feel a bit more qualify than you to write about this subject than you. But if you want you can go on and on with this Isa situation where you start sounding like an Isa widow, be my guest. Get over man, there are no ghost to chase on the subject, but I know you are a hard man to convince so I let you with your thoughts and ghosts. End of this subject for me.
Carlos the Argie
Roar Guru
These are the comparable statistics between Legui and Isa. 2018 Minutes played: Legui 341, Isa 1,751. Legui both Pumas and Jaguares. Isa only Toulon Meters made: Legui 103 m. Isa 1,029m. Tackles won (attempted): Legui 84% (43), Isa 80% (244) Meters per carry: Legui 5.6m Jag (11.8m Pumas for 4 carries), Isa 9.4m. 2019 Minutes played: Legui 105 (must be missing a few Pumas minutes), Isa 796 (also missing Pumas minutes). Meters made: Legui 60m, Isa 314m Tackles won (attempted): Legui 83% (64), Isa 84% (157) Meters per carry: Legui 2.2m (3.3 for Pumas), Isa 6.5m (2.8m for Pumas) Here are the facts, crystal clear. Please Nobrain, explain to me then the decision. More statistics, including passes made, defenders beaten, tries, penalties committed, clean brakes are all in the RugbyPass l=pages. They all favor Isa over Legui too. So, if objective DATA does not support the decision, what is the cause then?
Carlos the Argie
Roar Guru
Ignore the facts yourself I wrote above and then Isa is mediocre. Get real, Nobrain. Leguizamón is history. Again, 20 minutes to go, who do you play? Legui or Isa?
Nobrain
Roar Guru
The thought of Mario Ledesma jeopardising the faith of Los Pumas in a RWC by not taking a player due to UAR politics makes me sick. I cannot understand people that are so far away from where things are happening and making assumptions without any facts and chasing ghosts that there are just not there. Facundo Isa did not performed as expected and his current form it is not the best imo. To bring a player like that and not even sitting him on the bench and have him only play against USA I rather take someone that I can count on to come and play solid 20 minutes. Leguizamon experience and his role on the team weighted more than Isa and his current form. That is imo the reason of why Isa is not in the 31.
sheek
Roar Guru
Thanks Melburnian.
Melburnian
Roar Pro
Sheek, TBH I think we have similar values, so I appreciate your answer. I've said it before that I think SR is dead (Boks will look internally or elsewhere) and Aus can't compete with NZ. I would look to strike a broadcast deal with FTA TV (may 50% of the value we get from SR broadcast) , pick Wallabies from anywhere in the world (letting others pick up the salary bill) and spend the money we have on grass roots & a national competition (NRC if you like) - Perth vs Melbourne, Sydney vs Brisbane (tribalism). Worry about winning RWC in 10+ years when the talent pool is increased.
Machooka
Roar Guru
Yeah terry... I tend to agree with all that! I think he also got the old and tired... 'he's a Cheika fav and also a Tah' shyte. :angry:
terrykidd
Roar Pro
Good morning Machooka .... yeah I do reckon Hanigan is ok and unfairly razzed here on the Roar ..... maybe its his baby face looks ..... the lad can play though and will hit offensive rucks all day long. He was maybe brought into the Wallabies 18 months too early, thereby earning his bad rep, but his play in 2019 has been very good despite being constantly switched between 6, 4 and 8. Plus he has bulked up a little more. You want a guy to play for the team and follow coach directions then Hanigan is the man.