September is always a bittersweet time of the year.
The year’s best month of footy kicks off tonight – the best teams playing in games with the highest stakes.
Unfortunately, it also means there are only nine games left in 2019 – the equivalent of one round of footy.
Let’s keep the glass half full, shall we?
Finals!
The reigning premiers seemed to have a top-four finish in the bag for most of the year, only to drop their final two games and put themselves in do-or-die final – and they last time they hosted an elimination final, things didn’t go so well.
Andrew Gaff of the Eagles (Photo by Paul Kane/Getty Images)
Both teams have made significant changes since Round 23.
For West Coast, grand final hero Will Schofield, Mark Hutchings and superstar (does that label still apply?) Nic Naitanui come into the side for the injured Oscar Allen, and Liam Duggan and Jack Pertruccelle, who have both been dropped.
Essendon have brought in Cale Hooker, Jake Stringer, Orazio Fantasia, Will Snelling and skipper Dyson Heppell for Dylan Clarke, Michael Hartley, Josh Begley, Martin Gleeson and Tom Jok, all but one of whom has been dropped – the injured Gleeson.
We know by now how the Eagles want to play: with precision of movement, both ball and player.
Often that movement launches after an intercept mark from Jeremy McGovern, Tom Barrass, Brad Sheppard or skipper Shannon Hurn.
The Bombers know that, and that any slow, high balls will likely come back, with interest. The good news in that area is that what is a weakness for the Dons could well work in their favour.
Essendon are 17th for marks inside-50 at 9.5 a game, ahead of only the Suns. That might not be a bad thing. Chaos could be their friend. Stringer, Anthony McDonald-Tipungwuti and Fantasia are dangerous players when the ball hits the deck, and that’s where they could gain an advantage.
At the other end, the Bombers match up surprisingly well. Cale Hooker and Michael Hurley are strong options for Josh Kennedy and Jack Darling, though it might be a wiser move to give Patrick Ambrose the job on one of them – Darling – to free up Hurley to do what he does best and hunt the ball.
John Worsfold hung Hurley out to dry last time these sides met, leaving him isolated on Kennedy as the ball came in repeatedly. Only shoddy kicking stopped the West Coast star from finishing with a bag.
That was pretty much the story of the game back in Round 14, West Coast dominated but wasted loads of opportunities. The 35-point margin was probably half what the Bombers deserved.
The other match-ups in the Eagles’ attack will be just as interesting and important as the big men. Adam Saad and Conor McKenna will have their hands full with the likes of Jamie Cripps, Willie Rioli and Liam Ryan. On the other hand, the Eagles will need to show the Dons’ dashing pair plenty of respect or risk being punished themselves.
There’s no shortage of big names in the middle either. Nic Nat versus Tom Bellchambers; Elliot Yeo, Luke Shuey, Andrew Gaff and Dom Sheed against Dylan Shiel, Zach Merrett and Dyson Heppell. Do the Eagles send Hutchings to Merrett?
(Paul Kane/Getty Images)
The Bombers look stronger than they have in weeks, and they’ve had two weeks to plan for this. They aren’t without a chance.
The Eagles just look stronger in each zone, and they too have had two weeks to prepare – and stew on that loss to Hawthorn and the high price they paid for it.
West Coast by four goals. That’s my Thursday night forecast. What’s yours?
Jack A
Guest
Read anons OP for the context and my reply will make sense - he questioned which WC would turn up. That alludes to a side being inconsistent, which is clearly false. I countered by correctly stating that WC has won more games than any other team between 2015-2019. I wasn’t trying to nail any glory for WC but rather prove that WC have been the most consistent side over the past four years. They’d probably be in the top 2,3 over the 3, 2 and 1 year periods as well. I actually heard that stat from a commentator during a game or in a news article.
Jack A
Guest
The Tigers won 8 games in 2016. Why you would think that they would have the most wins is baffling to me. WC is the clear leader for most wins between 2015-2019.
Jack A
Guest
WC has won 81 games from 2015-2019 (not including last nights final against Essendon). They’ve made 2 GF’s remember. Tigers have won 76 games and the Cats have won 74 games, in the same period. I’m not sure where you guys are getting your stats from but you’re both wrong. WC have won more games than any team in the last 4 seasons, as I stated. Check AFL tables by club, then season to season and do the maths.
Yattuzzi
Roar Rookie
Funny, I would have picked the Tigers as the most. The Eagles are nailing the glory to a very selective statistic. If they say 4.5 to 5, they could be right. Just because Geelong won the most games, I certainly wouldn’t call them the best team.
Yawn of the Dead
Guest
They only have one more win than richmond in the same period, despite our coach killer 2016 And many fewer if the arbitrary 4 becomes 3, 5 or even 6.
Yattuzzi
Roar Rookie
Jack, I actually contest this stat. It is not true. Geelong has won more games in the last four years. Hopefully an extra three this year.
Jack A
Guest
The WC that has won more games than any other team since over the past 4 years turned up, as expected.
Jack A
Guest
After seeing NN’s leap, tap work, follow up at ground level and run down of Saad what do you think?
Jack A
Guest
You’re funny ????, but I’ll bite! I did say “arguably” the best tagger. It’s a verifiable fact that he rarely fails when tagging. I’ve never said that WC has the best backmen, best ruckman, or best small forwards. I would argue that Nic Nat has beaten Grundy the last two times that they met, fact! And that Lycett and Vardy dismantled Grundy in the GF. I would argue that WC has one of the best defences in the league. Two of them were named the in 6 man AA defence this year and Sheppard should have been the 3rd. That would have been a 50% strike rate. WC had more AA players this year than any other team, and yes, SuperYeo was one of them. I would argue that WC has one of the best “young small forward lines” in the game. Cameron and Petrucelle didn’t play and are waiting in the wings. Throw in young talls like Allen, Waterman, Brander and Williams and the future looks very bright. In saying that many other teams futures look bright, including your club.
Seano
Roar Rookie
That’s something that didn’t happen, my example did happen.
Jason
Roar Rookie
Disagree IAP, with Schofield back to play the traditional fullback role, allows Barrass and McGovern to zone off and play the intercept roles. Bombers, as others have said will try to use their pace/run off half back to pin point passes into the forward line. Otherwise the Eagles will pick them off.
Jason
Roar Rookie
Hope you are right Gerard.
Crock' O' Clock
Roar Rookie
I have to apologise to you mate. Because I could only like this comment once LOL.
RT
Roar Rookie
No Peter is staying home in protest that the match isn't being played in Geelong.
Eddie from Elwood
Roar Rookie
Who's the Bombers defensive coach? Did he run one of the best defensive units in the last couple of years? I guess he's not to shabby.
George Apps
Roar Rookie
Magpie fan - hope Essendon win.
Klompy
Guest
I think the mighty Eagles will beat Essendon by 25 points tonight.
Simoc
Guest
Essendon have looked ordinary or less all year and we know the Eagles are a top side. I think Essendon will get wiped off the park as befitting the ordinary team that they are.
rainstorms
Roar Rookie
In 2005 North finished 5th, played a Port team that scraped in by %. Result = Port smashed the Roos by 87 points so yes WCE cant be complacent.
Crock' O' Clock
Roar Rookie
False prophet old boy! Bombers got this covered. The talisman Tippa will light this one up. Eagles cooked for mine. Are you going tomorrow Peter?