The Gold Coast is better suited for an AFL expansion team than Tasmania.
It’s also better suited than half of the suburban teams in Melbourne, but their history is irreplaceable.
However, we cannot ignore that the Suns are the laughing stock of the AFL.
Since entering the league in 2011, the Suns have won just 47 out of a possible 198 games, which looks even worse when compared to the 79 games won by 2012 expansion team Greater Western Sydney.
But just because their on-field performances are a laughing stock, it doesn’t mean the Gold Coast market isn’t one of the most appealing in Australia.
The difference in on-field success between the two expansion sides is obvious, but while the Suns continue to struggle and GWS flourish, the similarities in fan engagement show a team on the Gold Coast has the potential to work extremely well.
Despite finishing 18th with a 3-19 record, Gold Coast only averaged 850 less in attendance than the finals-bound Giants.
The Suns averaged 11,417 people at home, including a home game in Townsville drawing just 7243. While the Giants, who had their fifth consecutive season with a winning record, only managed an average attendance of 12,267.
But the focus isn’t on the past seasons, the focus is on the future, which is why the AFL believed both locations were suitable for expansion.
Since joining the league in 2011, the Gold Coast Suns have helped contribute to growing the game in Queensland with AFL Queensland participation figures increasing from 130,000 in 2011 to 265,000 in 2018.
The rapidly increasing growth in Queenslanders playing football, especially on the Gold Coast, has been the most successful part of the Suns’ nine-year history.
(Photo by Michael Dodge/Getty Images)
While the Suns don’t have the biggest fan base (ranked 18th in 2019 with 13,649 members), their market brings a potential to the AFL that is second to none in Australia.
Home to over 600,000 people, the Gold Coast’s population is significantly less than major Australian cities but has been the fastest growing Australian city since 2001.
Five years from now, the Gold Coast’s population is set to eclipse the 750,000 mark and with the city’s population growing at historic pace alongside record participation numbers for AFL in Queensland, the Gold Coast has the potential to become a sustainable football city in a rugby league-mad state.
Obviously, it won’t be an overnight success, and with membership totals stagnant around 14,000 since 2011, the only positive in the Suns’ nine seasons seems to be the off-field growth.
But the AFL’s focus is on the future and the finances, and though the Suns’ on-field performances have hurt their financial growth, the Gold Coast will soon become a viable AFL city, which will translate into on-field success.
Patience is often something that fans don’t have, but most importantly for the Suns, the AFL have proven that they are patient.
In 2018, the AFL contributed $23.7 million to the Suns’ finances, backing up a $24.7 million grant in 2017, showing that the AFL are committed to the process of building football on the Gold Coast.
Unlike a team in Tasmania, though, the city of the Gold Coast provides the AFL with potential that cannot be replicated.
A Tasmanian AFL side is what plenty of football fans want to see, and while it would be a good move for some, it wouldn’t be a worthy investment for the AFL to make.
The Suns are often ridiculed for their low crowds at Metricon Stadium, but the only Tasmanian-based side that can draw comparisons is the BBL’s Hobart Hurricanes, who averaged 11,348 last season – a season in which they won the minor premiership.
But again, the focus isn’t on the past seasons, the focus is on the future.
A combined population of only 310,000 between Hobart and Launceston – as well as a below-average population growth of 0.29% – means that Tasmania’s market potential as an AFL host is extremely restricted.
Tasmania is also already heavily involved and engaged with the AFL, with 45,000 Tasmanians participating with AFL football in 2018. It is Tasmania’s engagement with the AFL, without having a team, that unfortunately damages their chances the most.
A team in Tasmania could work, but despite people thinking Gold Coast’s on-field performance is enough of a reason to fold or re-locate, a team in Tasmania is not a better option than one on the Gold Coast – and it never will be.
The objective of a team on the Gold Coast was to grow the game in the enticing, untapped Queensland market and, with patience, it will work.
Whereas a team in Tasmania, while being a feel-good story for fans, would not be a smart business decision for the AFL.
And unfortunately for Tasmanians, the AFL is a business.
Spanner
Roar Rookie
Good onya Gy - have both teams in and for diffetent reasons - the potential of the GC and the wonderful history of Tassie. To not have a team from a founding state, who took part in all the Australian carnivals (until they were abandoned) is morally wrong. Dont worry about the "business model" and all the other bs - reward the people and the game !
Gee
Roar Rookie
More potential viewers in Queensland but more actual viewers in Tasmania, even without a home team. https://www.theage.com.au/sport/afl/afl-forget-queensland-more-tasmanians-are-tuning-in-to-the-footy-20190510-p51m19.html
Gee
Roar Rookie
Tasmania will not get a football team until they start watching soccer or rugby in big numbers. They are pretty much the same as a safe political seat, taken for granted until it's not safe anymore then the money rolls in.
Hymie
Guest
Demography and future trends come into this. The Gold Coast has a younger population. It's attractions will see that trend maintained. Much of Tasmania's growth has come from retirees. Difficult to see this changing any time soon. Tassie does have Football roots to initially sustain a team. Gold Coast has much stronger long term claims.
David Mohr
Roar Rookie
Thanks Edward - yeah us Tasmanians will keep on paying a million bucks a game for blockbuster Kangas vs Giants games. After all business is business and we are the great givers of the AFL. A once footy loving state reduced to begging for content. There is no room for emotion though Edward is there. The fact that a once heartland of AFL is really struggling is probably of no concern to you. As long as the sport loving public of the Gold Coast can wander down to Metricon and see all the big teams everything is dandy. Oh well we will have an NBL team soon. Thanks Larry Kestleman.
Rowdy
Roar Rookie
Given this is true the AFL should hang their head in shame. Tas has what the GC doesn't and that is the fabric of Tasmania is interwoven with AFL. The GC is an impostor by comparison. If the AFL had a full-on AFL side it'd be successful. I hate the not enough argument. AFL clubs are more successful than NRL clubs yet Canberra Raiders swiped the AFL heartland of Canberra which is of similar size to Tassie. ---- The only issue is the North/South issue. (Tassie is the only state where Woolworths had different names according to the division.). The AFL needs to get their 'Burt Lancaster' on. Stop telling us why you can't and start telling us why you can. Yet the AFL supports the walking dead of Melbourne. G#F.
Softserve
Guest
It's actually true, what with the North/South divide here and the fact few kids are playing footy here anymore and prefer association football or footsal (Aussie rules clubs are constantly folding) it's probably a lost cause anyways. The next generation have given up on any meaningful pathways for development.
Admiral Ackbar
Guest
The Suns are better from a TV perspective, as there’s 500,000 people on the Gold Coast as opposed to 200,000 in Hobart, but who’d want to watch Gold Coast right now?
Scragger
Roar Rookie
Great idea Cacka, although that is almost exactly how the GC was set up. They were supposed to trade a lot of many top picks for older established stars. They chose instead to keep all their picks. GC have never had a talent problem but they have had issues with retention and off field problems.
Sunshine Tiger
Roar Rookie
How many national sporting teams have succeeded on the Gold Coast Zero zero zero, this will be another
Yawn of the Dead
Guest
What value the Tasmanian diaspora?
Gyfox
Roar Rookie
This should not be either/or - we can have both a GC & Tassie club. GC is about building the future - Tassie is rebuilding & rejuvenating the past
RT
Roar Rookie
A well argued article with the exception of the crowd analysis. The cricket comparison is irrelevant (what crowds go to BBL in Geelong?) The Gold Coast crowds are not at all impressive, especially when you see the number of travelling fans there. There aren't many locals. There is a reason why they hosted games on consecutive weekends in July against Richmond and Adelaide and it is called school holidays. Of course the team is crap right now so crowds can't get any worse.
Cracka
Roar Rookie
I think what could help Gold Coast would be a veterans list that can hold 10 experience players from other clubs that would have a salary cap of its own away from the normal salary cap. This would bring experience to the club. This would bring really made AFL bodies to the club. This would bring players together to teach the kids. This would I think help GCS to retain players. For example players they could pick this year and next: Haw: Jarryd Roughead, Shaun Burgoyne, Carl: Dale Thomas, Kade Simpson, Adel: Eddie Betts, Sam Jacobs, Nth: Shaun Higgins, ScottThompson, Syd: Jarrad McVeigh, Josh Kennedy. As I said an example of experienced players that they could bring in on a 2 year contract outside the normal salary cap, that could bring knowledge that could help fast track the kids at GCS. As for Tasmania as much as I would love to see a side in the AFL from Tassie, I think they don’t have the money to support a side, what I would like to see is 18 games played in Tassie every year, whereby every club plays a home game in Tassie each year, this would be huge boost to Tassie, BUT who pays? This is the biggest issue, maybe in the next TV deal the AFL could set money aside to pay for this over the life of the TV deal, with each club playing a home game would receive $500,000. Good article, Edward James .
Pizza
Guest
The Hurricanes play in summer. AFL is in winter. I reckon that would keep the crowd numbers down. I also think they'd have more trouble with retention in Tassie than Gold Coast. If young men have the option of living training & playing on the Gold Coast or Tassie, why would they choose Tassie? Edward is spot on with his analysis.
IAP
Guest
The AFL isn't actually a business - it's a not for profit sporting organisation. Part of their role is to be a custodian of the game, which means looking after the areas that made the AFL what it is. This includes Tasmania. Chasing new fans to the detriment of old fans is not smart business. Why would you look for a new golden goose when you can just feed the one you have?
Scragger
Roar Rookie
Interesting article Edward. I agree that the Gold Coast should remain and will one day be successful both on and off the field. With Hobart however, the AFL might not have to spend anywhere near the money it does on GC. If the Hurricanes A team in a lowly state league representing a tiny city) are attracting about the same crowds as GC who play in the best comp in the country then you would surely expect a Tassie team to attract somewhere around the 15 to 20,000 mark immediately. A pretty good investment I would have thought. I don't think the conversation has to be about one or the other, maybe about both?