We’re finally at the business end of the season, with eight teams playing in the NRL finals this weekend, and the other eight probably nursing grade-one reckless hangovers all morning, courtesy of their Mad Monday celebrations.
At the time of the writing, no incidents have been reported (knock on wood!), so we can only hope that the football will take centre stage, as it should this time of year, with four finals to be played this weekend.
Following are the big questions for each game, the answers to which will go a long way to deciding who wins.
How much do we read into the Bunnies’ two victories over the Chooks this season?
The finals kick-off on Friday night, with bitter rivals the Sydney Roosters and South Sydney Rabbitohs resuming hostilities after their epic and bloody encounter just last week.
The Bunnies won 16-10, which actually gave them the clean sweep over the Chooks this season, as they also beat them 26-16 way back in Round 1. Considering the boys from Bondi finished second on the ladder and only lost seven games all season, losing twice to the same team seems pretty significant.
So is it?
(Photo by Mark Kolbe/Getty Images)
There’s no question that the Rabbitohs can, and should, take something out of the two victories. If nothing else, they should approach this game with extreme confidence, knowing they can beat the Roosters.
However, the reality is that there are noteworthy mitigating circumstances to the two wins. The games quite literally came at the start and finish of the season, and that provides a little context worth mentioning.
Every team is allowed the leeway of perhaps starting the season a little sluggish, so the opening game of the season is hardly the best gauge of a team’s finals fortunes. Plus, it was back in March – the Chooks have developed a lot since then.
Conversely, in the last game of the season, the Roosters didn’t really have a lot to play for, having sewn up second spot on the ladder. Plus key five-eighth Luke Keary was also absent, so again, it may not be the best indication of how Trent Robinson’s team measure up against Souths.
That’s not to say the Chooks would be happy with losing those two games, or that the Bunnies’ wins should be dismissed outright. Souths are a very good team, and these clubs hate each other. I couldn’t think of a better game to kick off the finals, but I also won’t be reading too much into the two results during the season.
Are the Raiders getting wobbly at the wrong time of the year?
Canberra enter the finals coming off a disappointing loss to a disappointing Warriors. Though plenty will rightfully say it’s not the best lead-in to the finals, the truth isn’t quite as sensationalistic or dramatic.
I can’t believe people are worried about Canberra dropping their last game. The Raiders didn’t have a whole lot to play for against New Zealand, had five players out, and were coming off a gruelling golden-point victory over Cronulla the week before.
A little perspective is important at times.
Canberra finished an impressive fourth on the ladder for a reason, and there’s also the salient point that they defeated their opponents this Saturday – minor premiers the Melbourne Storm – just a few weeks ago.
Canberra’s defence has been very good this year, and while the Storm should be scared of no team, they should at least be wary of a Raiders club that has talent across the park, and play a brand of football suited to the finals. It will be a tough affair, and decided in the middle of the park.
In particular, look for Josh Hodgson to have an impactful game, and show an audience that may have slept on Canberra this year just how good he and his team really are.
Can Manly win without Tom Trbojevic?
I can keep the answer to this question pretty brief. In short, no.
Sadly, the Sea Eagles will be without the services of their brilliant fullback, due to a torn pectoral muscle. Considering how talented the No.1 is, it leaves a gaping hole in Manly’s roster, and it’s one they simply won’t be able to overcome.
(Photo by Cameron Spencer/Getty Images)
If that wasn’t bad enough – and it would have been anyway – Manly’s injury list also includes Curtis Sironen, Joel Thompson, Taniela Paseka and Toafofoa Sipley, plus they could be joined by others. With Marty Taupau also suspended, I struggle to see how the Sea Eagles will be able to keep up with the Sharks, who will be buoyed by their season-extending win over the Tigers at Leichhardt on Sunday.
Cronulla looked pretty ominous in the second half of their do-or-die match against Wests, and this game could get ugly in a hurry for the Sea Eagles.
Are the Broncos just making up the numbers?
I would have loved for my Doggies to make the finals, even if they were eventually bundled out in week one. There’s never any disgrace in making the top eight, even if you don’t make much noise once you’re there. So believe me when I say, kudos to Brisbane for playing finals football.
Now that we have the niceties out of the way, we can call this game exactly what it is: the ugly stepsister of the opening round of finals games.
Brisbane shouldn’t even be here. They couldn’t even beat the Bulldogs last round. The Broncos making the eight says more about the disappointing number of teams in the competition this season than it does about Brisbane.
Well done to them for being less sucky than all the other sucky teams this year, but I’ll be shocked if they score a point on Sunday, let alone win. They are not a good football team.
On the other side of the fence, I thought the Eels would be battling for the wooden spoon this season, so for them to finish fifth with 30 points is as surprising to me as it is impressive for them. That’s a very good season in anyone’s books.
Though consistency has been an issue all year, Parramatta are lucky to be handed a bye in week one, and it could even be the catalyst to get on a roll at the best time of the season to have momentum.
Hard Yards
Roar Rookie
Boom boom tching !
Dogs Boddy
Roar Rookie
If they are going to win they will need to play asbestos they can :laughing:
Hard Yards
Roar Rookie
I’ll be there. It’s going to be a tough game for the Boys.
Dogs Boddy
Roar Rookie
Are you going to be on the hill to watch Manly's last game for the season mate??
Papi Smurf
Roar Rookie
"How much do we read into the Bunnies’ two victories over the Chooks this season?" Nothing at all. The Roosters are favourites. They finished a comfortable 2nd place on the NRL ladder and coasted all the way to finals in 2nd gear. Except for the traditional rivalry between the 2 clubs last week's game meant nothing to them in a realistic sense. In fact, it would have been smarter to have rested players like Cooper Cronk, Latrell Mitchell and Boyd Cordner ahead of this week's clash to better setup their ambush. If there is even a hint of complacency or a lack of focus by the Bunnies they will be behind the 8 ball all night. As a club the Roosters would rather go down swinging and spill blood than have the Rabbitohs shoot a hole in their premiership title defence and defeat them THREE TIMES IN A ROW in the SAME YEAR! Souths have proved they can hang in there with the best teams in the competition when they have most of their players available and they have played much of this season without Sam Burgess already. Their biggest weakness seems to be their start. Their first 20 - 25 mins is often terrible if not atrocious. That is where they lost to the Storm a few weeks ago and where they were behind to the Roosters last week. If not for some uncharacteristic errors and missed opportunities by the chooks they should have doubled their early lead and been in an insurmountable position. IMO Souths weakest links are Corey Allan, Mark Nicholls and Dean Britt. Mawene Hiroti, Tom Amone and Bayley Sironen/Kyle Turner would have been better alternatives but George Burgess, although a gamble, would have been desperate to redeem and prove himself and could have been an interesting selection. John Sutton is also too easily gassed and the inclusion of Connor Tracey would give Souths options where currently they have NONE at hooker and in the halves. If Cook, Reynolds or Walker go down Souths' chances go with them. Souths need to show discipline and focus along with a high completion rate and then play off the back of that with an emphasis on second phase play and moving the ball around and attacking the Roosters defensive edges earlier in the tackle count. If they just play it through the middle they will fall into the Roosters trap. Above all else the Bunnies have to keep up the same effort and consistency in their defence which has been the underlying reason for them turning their season around. If the Bunnies can do all that AND the referees keep the chooks honest like they did last week than the Bunnies can win this in a close one. If not then it should be 12+ to the chooks after they have ensured that JWH, Corder and Tetevano are all available and that Sam Burgess is out of the contest.
Stormy
Roar Rookie
While I'd love my Storm to win the Premiership, it's obvious that any team, in the eight, can beat any other, playing their best & with a little luck. The Premiership is anyone's for the taking. It's not that I don't have faith - I'm a realist.
Paul
Roar Guru
i got more enjoyment from watching the Aussie Rules GF last year than I did the NRL GF. I just hope it's not a repeat.
Fix the scrums
Guest
Aaaargh! Not the Storm and Roosters again.
farkurnell
Roar Rookie
DB ..Make that 6 from 40 Saturday night at Brookie.Win this one and we go all the way.We’ve beaten all those other cream puff teams this year -there just making up the numbers
Flexis
Roar Rookie
Of course. I was simply counterpunching that if you decide to mow the lawn or wash the car in favour of watching this ugly game you might just be missing the most expansive and entertaining game of the round. In terms of Brisbane’s chances, I’m still waiting to see this weeks team lists before booking my grand final tickets. If you can say one thing about our season it has been spectacularly inconsistent at times. So here’s to hoping last week loss puts us in good stead.
Paul
Roar Guru
"The Broncos making the eight says more about the disappointing number of teams in the competition this season than it does about Brisbane" I couldn't agree more, Ryan. The rosters at the Dragons, Cowboys, Panthers and Knights were as good if not better yet none of these teams played even close to their potential. As for the finals, injuries but more importantly suspensions are going to hurt teams. If guys like Sam Burgess and Tapau are suspended, I can't see their teams getting close to winning. Kudos to the teams who made it to the finals, but I can't go past the Storm and Roosters doing it all over again on GF night.
Dogs Boddy
Roar Rookie
Cage - check. Shiny new toys that have enough flashing lights to make an epileptic nervous - check. Rum for dad - check. Big screen TV - check. Noise cancelling headphones and blinkered glasses - check. What could possibly go wrong??
Malo
Guest
Manly & Raiders to get upset wins. Sharks with players like Johnson, woods & Dugan will crack and have shockers .
My Little Pony
Roar Rookie
The biggest question is, have you bought the cage yet so you can watch the game in peace?
Hard Yards
Roar Rookie
Brookie is on for the Sharks game! Cronulla last won there in 2008. Go Manly !
jimmmy
Roar Rookie
Love a confident supporter DB.
Rod
Guest
The game between the Rabbits and Chooks is clearly not a do or die , both sides have a second chance . This game is more vital for the chooks in my view . If they lose again they can’t be any excuses , the dent in there confidence would make them vulnerable for the following weeks game . The Rabbits what are the odds of beating the chooks three in the trot , probably not good . If it’s a tight game and the rabbits lose not ideal but not fatal , number of our forwards due to injury , suspension etc have not played a lot of games so should be relatively fresh , it does give the team a chance to gel . We have hardly run out with the same side all year . Whilst I would rather see the rabbits win . I can see a possible benefit with combos etc
Rob
Guest
I'm not sure Souths fans should take much out of that game. Think that win has papered over the cracks and they will be found out this weekend. The Roosters went to sleep and Souths could still only manage two tries. Like you said Noosa they opened Souths at will in that first half.
Ryan O'Connell
Expert
It was more a playful jab at Brisbane than an actual analysis on their chances on Sunday.
Ryan O'Connell
Expert
Hey Peter, I think there is a big difference between "not bothering", and having "nothing to play for". The team(s) wouldn't have gone out there not caring or not trying, but they may have been 1% off in motivational or focus, and that's all you need when you're playing professional sport to give the other team a telling advantage.