I wrote a similar article to this four years ago. It was entitled something like “Let’s sneak up and bite them on the bum”.
It’s not a huge leap of faith to think that your team (whoever it is) can’t win the World Cup, because that is just what the Wallabies nearly did in England.
I’m not saying Australia will win, but I am asking: why couldn’t they?
It’s a pretty simple equation. You can drop one pool game – better if you don’t because that probably means that your journey to the semi-finals is a bit harder and, let’s face it, if you don’t have to meet the All Blacks until later, you just upped your chances.
The team that wins the World Cup is most likely going to be one that doesn’t lose any pool games (plus of course the knockout matches), but that’s not entirely set in concrete.
Now, let’s look at the Wallabies: in 2015 they were rank outsiders, slipped quietly into camp with a fairly together squad and got on with business. They didn’t win the thing, but they did play in the final.
There’s no reason why they can’t go it again. Michael Cheika’s team are at a lowly fifth or sixth (who cares?) – just far enough off the radar that the other more favoured nations don’t think they are a threat.
That is precisely where the Wallabies want to be.
The hardest World Cup fixture will be this Saturday’s opener against Fiji, even though they have to meet Wales later on. The Pacific nation is more an unknown and unpredictable quantity than the Welsh (even if I have them as my 7-1 roughies).
Australia have a reasonably easy pool, but with two major stumbling blocks in Wales and Fiji.
I, for one, will definitely be holding my breath come Saturday. Please, boys, take them very seriously and don’t slack off at any point for the full 80. Just be in their faces and cut down their support play.
I put together my rugby calendar for the next two months, and with the wonderful footy being played in the NRC and the World Cup on the horizon, we are in for a magnificent feast of some of the best rugby we will ever see.
C’arn the Wallabies!
Ankle-tapped Waterboy
Guest
Australia have a history of punching above the expected weight. Super Rugby form isn't a good predictor. The Wallaby coaches seem to have got a lot out of the Perth test and I think we'll see a lot of that team and some lessons learnrd from Auckland. Wallabies are in good shape.
Kiwi in us
Guest
Sure OZ could go a long way. Anything happens at these tournaments. Hope it’s not all about red cards, etc. looking for an epic tournament.
SandBox
Roar Guru
I hope you’re right Gatesy. Everything indicates an early exit for us, but there’s that one small chance we have been flying under the radar
BLACKTOWN
Roar Rookie
I agree we need a new sponsor that doesn't think it has a right to run the sport.That Irish twit is the highest paid executive in the country but QANTAS maybe our most famous and iconic brand cant crack a recent survey of the world's top 10 airlines.
Peter
Guest
Really good spray. I don’t think the Australian Rugby League will care what Raelene Castles is up to. I have not yet seen a convincing argument for an Australian Australian coach. Care to supply one? (Note: neither xenophobia nor “‘Coz Straya mate!” counts as an argument, except in a pub. “A new Australian sponsor that will be inclusive of all opinions.” There’s that “Coz Straya!” again. Does this include companies whose expressed values, aimed at individuals or corporations they understand, are somewhere to th3 left of Attila the Hun? On the other matters, I agree with these sweeping generalities.
mbp
Guest
it will be more of the same for australia because its been more of the same.... same coach.... same shameful administration. will be another substandard result. a really poor performance maybe a godsend to seeing change.... a new arl board and a new australian australian coach. a new super rugby mentality. new grass roots mentality. maybe a new australian sponsor that will be inclusive of all opinions and welcome back isreal folau. maybe we will see the end of the giteau law.... how will we compete with south africa now they have ended their giteau law????
FunBus
Roar Rookie
Not bad. My tactic is that I arranged a long-standing trip for the entire family to see the grandparents who live 200 miles away this weekend...My debilitating illness which, unfortunately, means I won't be able to join them, will start developing around about Thursday afternoon.
Bobby
Roar Rookie
Gatesy, good onya. Wallabies to make final at least. Heading over there to support the Green and Gold, just like 2011 and 2015. Go Wallabies!
Homer
Guest
That's my pick too. I thought I was the only one.
Lara
Guest
Put it this way...we need the Wallabies to go deep for the Oz rugby supporters, not for RA or coaches, purely for the fans.
jimbo
Roar Rookie
hahaha..already did mate,aussies to loose this first up match...
Homer
Guest
I admire you optimistic patriotism. But don't put any money on them. Moral support is enough.
Puff
Guest
Gatesy, love the science, the equation is simple, winning your pool and circumventing the darkness. Unfortunately all the main contenders will be utilizing the same strategy. One of the reasons I don’t believe we will be as successful as in 2015. This 31 is not as balanced, the backs lack quickness and the team has little diversity when the game plan is on display. Michael Cheika could deliver something special and dumbfound his detractors but to date I see nothing that would suggest that.
jimbo
Roar Rookie
i reckon fiji will come out winners in this first game....i dunno but just thinking how the drua won the nrc last year...they beat pretty much australian super rugby teams.the vikings(brumbies)and queensland country(reds)to win....and there is only 6 players from that drua team in this fijian squad...filled with european superstars and i mean..players who regularly shine for their respective teams..week in and week out..so its gonna be a real cracker of a game..cant wait...do not let fiji have turnover balls...they will punish u...just having a look at their recent games..at list 70 per cent of their tries in all 6 games over the pnc and maori games were from turnovers....counter attacking magical tries...go fiji
Doctordbx
Roar Rookie
Think about it from this perspective. Australia has a harder pool than Wales.
Tooly
Roar Rookie
Why not again this time you ask ? Craig Joubert was sacked. But don’t underestimate the Poite ?
Broken Shoulder
Roar Rookie
Hear, hear! Can’t wait for this to kick off. Reminds me of this post I saw on Facebook recently to ensure uninterrupted viewing… “Instructions for a uninterrupted World Cup viewing schedule: 1. Get absolutely sauced this Friday night without the consent of the girlfriend, wife, boyfriend etc, can watch Japan vs Russia if need be, but not necessary. 2. Once you arrive home between the hours of 5am and 7am to a partner that has been sitting in the middle of the couch since 10pm the night before, with a stare that could penetrate a corefilled block wall, you brace yourself for a 30 min to 3 hour spray. 3. Once the spray has been completed and you apologise, the silent period should begin, for most this should last from anywhere from 4 weeks to 6 weeks. 4 weeks should be plenty of time for the likes of Australia, England, Scotland, but the team’s that actually make it to finals, may need to do something again during the first couple of weeks to ensure the silent 6 week period. 4. As you are banished to the spare room in which the TV is already set up and a couch with a built in fridge which you secretly bought earlier in the year, you enjoy the World Cup with a few Heinekens with no interruptions.”
Pete McAloney
Roar Pro
Thanks Gatesy, and it is the classic philosophical response to the question why the Wallabies can win it: “why not?” But I do admit that I am backing them more with my heart than my head!